GOOD MORNING,
The week started off with negative vibes, as China indicated they would not buy beans from the US. Then the bean buying spree started and beans have not looked back since. A weaker US dollar, (as traders unwind previous buy US dollar/sell energies and buy US dollar/sell other currencies, including the Brazilian Real), fed into a higher market trade. If behavior speaks volumes in a market, the fact that on two days this week beans ignored very bearish news was a clue that higher prices would be around the corner. AgriCensus confirmed that Chinese state buyer Cofco purchased two cargoes for Sep and Sep/Oct delivery time frames, and other world buyers are coming to the market as US beans are globally competitive. Rumors continued throughout the trading session yesterday that China's Sinograin was around the market for Sep and Dec shipments.
Wheat rallied further off its lows, as charts and price action suggest further gains may now be coming with confirmation of a possible inverted head and shoulders bottom. Reports of lower production in the Black Sea and Europe, dry weather, rising premiums in Russia's domestic market, all helped wheat to see a combination of bottom - picking and short-covering. The western Great Plains continue to be hot and dry, also garnering some attention.
Corn prices rallied as funds sold 20K futures on Wed., only to have to turn and buy them back on market strength Thursday. They are probably still left with a sizable 270K short, and the market is not trending their way. Energy prices are higher today, which is friendly for the corn market.
WEATHER
Dry and hot Midwest weather was the norm this week, but forecasts for next week take some of the heat out and put more rainfall in as Tropical Storm Cristobal brings moisture to the US early next week. In the Delta scattered showers show for the rest of the week, which will benefit areas hit.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America