GOOD MORNING,

Prices are firmer this morning on oversold conditions and short-covering heading into the Thanksgiving closure on Thursday.  The delivery cycle begins at the close of this session with first notice day commencing on Friday, November 29.  Corn volumes are still comprised heavily of spread trade, with Dec/March making up the majority of trading volumes.  First notice day often has a bearish component to it as longs have to decide whether to roll or liquidate.  In this case, the delivery cycle, good weather in South America, and continued back and forth trade rhetoric talk took a toll on price action this week, even though beans at the Gulf are priced attractively.  Time for recovery today.  

WEATHER

The balance of the harvest in the Northern Plains will be put to the test as more storms cross the upper Midwest.  There could be as much as 2 bln bu of corn still left in the fields. Good rains continue to cross over Brazil and Argentina, though the latter could trend drier next week.  Weather for the most part remains neutral/bearish due to good growing weather in South America.

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Teamsters Union rep. Canadian National Railway workers say they reached a tentative deal with the company ending an 8-day strike but rank and file members must ratify the deal.  

Brazil's DERAL stated that wheat harvest in the second largest state of Parana has finished.  Production is forecast at 2.132 mmt vs 2.808 mmt year ago.  

Argentine grain trade continues to be active as they registered another 265 tmt of wheat export sales.  

Brazil's grain exporter group ANEC estimated the following 2019 exports as of Nov 23:

corn:  36.7 mmt

beans:  68.7 mmt

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans:  1 1/2-2 higher

meal:    90-1.00 higher

soyoil:   5-9 higher

corn:     1/2 higher

wheat:  1 1/2-2 higher

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Outside markets feature a higher crude oil market which trades up to $58.68/barrel, and a firmer US dollar which trades to 98.40.  Stocks are steady to higher.  

TECH TALK

• Today appears to offer consolidation of recent losses in the soy complex, and sideways to higher trade in grains.  
• Wheat continues to have solid support, giving some spillover support to corn, with the price action suggesting that prices could climb towards the peak high in Oct. at $5.39 before finding better resistance.   
• Soyoil prices are staging a mild comeback after falling towards the 30c level of trade.  
• Jan beans firm from lows of $8.82 3/4, which happens to match the lows placed last September, but fresh lows could be challenged again as there was not a solid reversal signal here to suggest the lower move is complete.  March beans are back over $9.00, but not by much.  
• Jan meal traded to $296.70 on sell-stops after breaking through the $300.00 support level.  Major trend is lower but could see prices easily working back towards $303.00 again, as has been the price pattern.  
• March corn trades sideways, but the inability to hold together over $3.80 is troubling, if friendly.  The pattern in this market has been to move sideways only to eventually push lower at some point with low target ideas in the vicinity of a $3.65-$3.70 trade, should we get there.  In order to do that, prices have to break $3.75.  

JANUARY BEANS

The market traded to the September lows posted this year and matched them at $8.82 3/4 to enter into a small recovery trade.  The down-move may continue, but this was a lower end target and think that the market could try to correct some of its oversold status to move into a $8.80-$9.10 trading range.   Funds may want to keep the downside going, and could elect to try to sell a correction that moves back towards the $9.00 level.  Would look to probably enter into a mini $8.80-$9.05/$9.10 range for a bit, though technically there is not a good reversal signal such as an outside day closing higher, key reversal, etc.  Until we see that, prices may continue into slow erosion territory.  However, the first of the month after the delivery period can mark a recovery cycle.  If short, would consider taking something off the books down at these lower levels of trade, or even try the long side with a tight sell-stop close by.

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America