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China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Monthly Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years With China’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate falling to 6.2 percent, the economy received more bad news as food prices in June were up 8.3 percent against June 2018. This was their biggest increase since January 2012. At that point, however, GDP was growing at annualized rate of nearly 9 percent. Now many households in China, particularly those outside the major coastal cities, are facing stagnant incomes and rising prices for basic staples. According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, pork prices were up 21.1 percent in June compared with a year ago, while fresh fruit prices jumped 42.7 percent versus an incre...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.4 from...

Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities

The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.4 from...

Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities

The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

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From WPI Consulting

Communicating importance of value-added products

Facing increasing pressure to quantify the value of export promotion efforts to investors, a U.S. industry organization retained WPI to develop a quantitative model that better communicated the importance of exports. The resulting model concluded that value-added meat exports contributed $0.45 cents per bushel to the price of corn, increasing support for that sector’s financial support of WPI’s client. In addition to serving the red meat industry with this type of analysis, WPI has generated similar deliverables for the U.S. soybean and poultry/egg industries.

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