World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How the Day Trades

SPREADS

Sep crush trades at 95.55c/bu while oilshare firms further to 31.27%.  Dec/March corn trades out to 7 1/2c from 6 3/4c while the Dec/Dec inverse trades from 27 3/4c down to 22 3/4c.  Sep/Dec meal carry trades from $4.60 out to $5.00 with $4.70  close.  August/Nov beans narrows into 17 3/4c from 18 1/2c.  Sep wheat/corn trades from 72c down to 66 1/4c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades from 11 3/4c out to 12 1/2c. 

PALM OIL - Malaysia has kept its August crude palm oil export duty at 1%.  Cash RBD palm oil is down $5.00/mt at $492.50/mt. 

NEWS

The stock market is lower with crude firmer at $59.98/barrel high, and the US dollar trading up to 97.33.  Retail sales were higher in June with the Commerce Department reporting an 0.4% rise vs. the expected 0.1% level.  Retail sales are up 3.4% in June from a year ago.   Major trade flows continue to buy equities/sell commodities.  

Calls today are as follows: 

beans:  8-10 lower

meal:  2.40-2.80 lower

soyoil:  15-20 lower

corn:     6-8 lower

wheat:   2-3 lower

canola:  1.80-2.00 lower

TECHNICALS

Nov beans:  Wide trading range from $9.00-$9.48 using $9.25 as a swing point.  However, the hard stop at $9.36 tends to lower the resistance level here down to $9.35 with the potential to once again test the $9.00 level.  The pattern, as in corn, is potentially a topping one.  However, until we settle under $9.85 the major trend is sideways.  For the day resistance moves down to $9.15, and as we trend downward it could test $9.02/$9.05 again.  

key lower support:  $8.99-$9.01

resistance:  $9.15

possible range: $9.05-$9.15 or higher

Dec meal:  Overall trading range is from $310.00 - $325.00, and big picture is from $300.00-$336.00, contract highs. This morning's price action turns us lower from higher, and therefore would expect to see a bit more downside follow-through and a test of $313.80 again, a level that has stabilized price action before.  The trend is extremely weak here with an ADX at 14, meaning we see little extension on either side of trading ranges.

first support: $313.80-$314.00

resistance:  $317.50

possible range: much the same or lower

Dec soyoil:  Trading range is from $28c-29c, but this market’s rallies continue to disappoint.  We begin at the lower end of the night session range, and would therefore expect a test of the 2850c level for the day.  Visually this market has been in an uptrend channel, but bottom of channel today crosses at 2840c.  If we go there and take out this support we could sell the market for a return trip to 28c.  While we test it, it could hold for the day in a further congestion trade.

trendline channel support:  2840c

resistance:  2880c

possible range: much the same or lower

Dec corn: Sideways from $4.20-$4.65.  The market is losing any kind of trend with an ADX reading falling to 19.  Funds are long, and will remain so unless we close under $4.20.  The recent low from the July report was $4.30.  We may go there but would expect to see very good support and a probable hold for congestion trade from $4.26-$4.30.  Still plenty of uncertainty as regards Prevent Plant, acres, etc.   Pullbacks in this market should be covered more quickly if short, as the market still shows a tendency to bounce.

first support:  $4.30/$4.33

resistance:  $4.43/$4.44

possible range: much the same

Sep wheat;  Futures show little ability to follow-through on either side, and have led the way down over the last day or two.  Would expect the $4.95 to $5.00 level to be adequate support, and if short would be covering partially on a scale down basis, as this market has shown the tendency to stay sideways from $4.95-$5.35.  

first support: $4.98/$5.02

resistance:  $5.11/$5.12

possible range; much the same

NOVEMBER BEANS:  Appearing to be in the process of making a topping pattern, but in each case there has been little confirmation of a top.  The major trend for now is sideways.  The lower blue line in the triangle phase does not cross until we reach $8.90, the very bottom of our most recent range.  For the day, resistance moves down once again to $9.15 given the current weakness, and the ability to return to major lower support levels does not show inherent strength.  Could straddle/strangle this market from $8.90-$9.35 for now.  If short, may want to consider lifting those shorts scale down from $8.99-$9.05.  

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