World Perspectives
livestock

More Placements, Fewer Marketings, Bearish Cattle on Feed Expected

The cattle and beef markets need clarity. The last Cattle on Feed report was fundamentally bearish, but prices have only gone higher since then. Packer margins are near record highs for this time of year, while cash cattle prices are near seasonal lows. Feedlot margins are theoretically in the red, but feeder calf values continue to rise (thanks, partly, to cheaper corn). Beef exports are relatively robust, but domestic demand remains flat overall. So, the present situation seems full of contradictions that Friday’s Cattle on Feed report may resolve. This analyst’s models suggest the 1 September total cattle on feed inventory will be up from last year with placements and marketings lower. To analyze the report’s likely fi...

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Cattle on Feed at Record Level for April

USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today after the market close, and it showed inventory below market expectations, a bullish factor. However, the more significant potential bull market driver is the gap between expected and actual placements. That is only part of the story,...

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United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent: Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on May 1, 2019. The inventory was 2 percent above May 1, 2018. This is the highest Ma...

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livestock

Cattle on Feed at Record Level for April

USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today after the market close, and it showed inventory below market expectations, a bullish factor. However, the more significant potential bull market driver is the gap between expected and actual placements. That is only part of the story,...

livestock

Cattle on Feed

United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent: Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on May 1, 2019. The inventory was 2 percent above May 1, 2018. This is the highest Ma...

Trouble Before the War; Counterintuitive Uncertainty Benefits

Trouble Before the War Ohio State University Professor Ian Sheldon laments that even if the U.S. and China reach a trade agreement, it will take many years to undo the damage from the trade war. He is correct, but it is also true that China was doing American agriculture fewer favors before the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.2975/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, up $3.3 from...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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