THE OPEN

November beans:  1/2 lower

December meal:  .30 higher

December soyoil:  6 lower

September corn:  3 1/4 higher

September wheat:  3 higher

Prices opened on a mixed note today, with buying in oilshare and more position - evening in grains.   Buy grains/sell soy was the opening morning trade, which pushed the meal chart to new ctr lows and soyoil charts into price stability.  Beans appeared to see liquidation in front of tomorrow's USDA report.  

At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:

beans:  324,512 mt vs. 255,810 mt week ago

wheat:  515,359 mt vs. 686,036 mt week ago

corn:    1,234,690 mt vs. 1,295,845 mt week ago

Inspections were neutral for grains and beans.  

SOY

• The opening featured a softer bean and meal market.  Crush values continue softer with Sep. dropping below 80c/bu to trade to 78.74c/bu.  Oilshare was stronger rising to 32.70%, back towards the key resistance level of 33.0%.  
• Firmer canola and crude, as well as prices staying above the 50 day moving average, helped Dec soyoil to trade back over 28c.  
• November beans weakened from the start of the day as traders unwound recent buy bean/sell corn spreads.   Beans followed a weaker meal trade, with Dec. violating previous ctr lows of $290.00 to trade lower hitting a target at $287.50.  
• Funds sold meal into commercial hands as consumers were waiting for such a break.  Spread trade continued firm as July contracts head into first notice day tomorrow.  July/Nov beans inverted to 5 3/4c from 2 3/4c, while July /August reached a 7c inverse before trading back down to $3 3/4c.  
• December soyoil prices responded by trading back over 28c, holding the 2790c 50 day moving average in doing so to trade back into the previous 28c-2950c trading range.  
• By the midday hour, bean prices had turned higher while soyoil prices traded back towards the middle of a 28c-2950c trading range.  

GRAINS

• Corn and wheat markets found strength from the opening on technical short-covering activity after a firm close this AM.  Chart retracement upward was the primary catalyst, though temperatures next week are going to climb higher making it a bit tougher for areas that did not see good weekend rainfall.  
• Sep corn prices climbed towards the $3.30 resistance level with a stop at $3.28 where the 50-day moving average was located.  September wheat prices rebounded as well with the fund short growing larger last week.  
• Sep. wheat has the best resistance at $4.88/$4.90, which probably will halt a better rally.   
• Slightly better movement was noted as corn futures strengthened off the low end of the trading range, though most are holding pat to see what the USDA has to say.  
• Spreads were slightly wider with July/Dec moving out to 9 1/2c while July/Sep moved out to 2 3/4c from 1/4c.  

AT 12:00 THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                                     hi                               lo

Nov beans:  4 higher                8.65                           8.56 3/4

Dec meal:    .90 lower              291.30                        287.50

Dec soyoil:  50 higher             2859                           2774

Sep. corn:  7 higher                3.28                               3.17 1/2

Sep. wheat:  13 higher             4.91 1/2                       475.00

Nov canola:  4.40 higher        473.10                         468.10

OUTSIDE MARKETS 

The Dow was up 149 pts at the beginning of the morning but continued to rally up over 390 pts.  Crude worked up to $39.18/barrel, while the US dollar firmed to 97.11.  

CLOSING COMMENTS

It was not surprising to see a bit of a relief rally as funds hold into a record short in corn.    Seasonally the end of June can be a high point for corn, but in that the market is skirting the low end of the trading range.  Wheat prices had a nice improvement as well, though both markets need the good close today to adjust upward still.  Technically both markets saw good stabilizing trade.  

Crop updates will be released at 3:00 and traders expect conditions to remain unchanged to slightly better.  However, given last week's price drop those condition ratings are likely factored into today's trade.  Tomorrow is the months and quarter end so profit-taking also was to be expected.  

As a reminder, the market will close at 12:05 central time on Thursday and re-open Sunday evening at the normal time.  

Advertised expectations for ratings today at 3:00

spring wheat:  conditions unchanged at 75% good/excellent

winter wheat harvest:   44% vs. 29% week ago

beans:  condition ratings to be unchanged at 70%

corn:  condition ratings at 73% vs. 72%

USMCA trade agreement goes into effect Wednesday.  

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America