Note: There will be no Technical Perspectives report tomorrow and Friday, 28-29 November. The next edition will be on Monday, 2 December.

THE OPEN

Jan beans:  1 3/4 higher

Jan meal:  1.00 higher

Jan soyoil:  8 higher

March corn:  1/4 lower

March wheat:  1 higher

The markets opened as called with tentative price action at best at the start of a slow volume day.  Corn resumed its challenge of recent support, eventually making new lows, as soyoil consolidates its move.  Wheat prices broke lower after the recent run-up as some unwinding of this week's buy wheat/sell bean trade occurred.  Volumes were light as expected with funds coming out as net sellers of grains, buyers of soyoil against meal.

SOY

• The soy complex traded mixed on the day with traders once again buying soyoil (on the dip) while selling meal, which pushed March oilshare back towards 33.90%.  March crush trades to 1.02c/bu in front of Monday's NOPA crush report.   
• Bean spreads continue wider with Jan/March now trading to new lows at 15c where profit-taking and some bullspreading resulted in a trade back to 14c.  
• Jan meal slides along lower support lines but also continues to find reports of new business and good commercial pricing activity.  
• Funds defended their long soyoil position with new buying on values closer to 30c, which took prices up towards the last level of broken support at 3066c, now turned into resistance.  
• Bean prices traded both sides of even with some short-covering at the lower end of this trading range along with possible bulls taking a chance that these lows could hold as we cruise into the month of December, which offers a make or break situation with tariffs due to increase on the 15th if nothing is resolved.  
• March/May meal traded a narrow $3.60 to $3.80 trade, while the Jan/March soyoil spread traded from 27 pts to 29 pts.  

GRAINS

• The feature of the day was that of lower corn, which stopped the buying activity in wheat.  As has been the price pattern, sideways trade eventually led prices lower for a new move down below $3.76 3/4 for the March contract.  
• Dec/March corn traded back out to 11 1/2c from 10 1/2c, while Dec 19/Dec 20 traded from 25 1/4c to 26 1/2c.  
• The funds continue to sell corn rallies which today provided more pressure.   While producer selling ideas remain over the market, pricing ideas were also lower which allowed for funds to push the market down.  
• Buy bean/sell corn trade dominated price action, as the spread has been the other way for most of the week.  
• Wheat traded both sides of unchanged with Minneapolis once again the sell leg of Chicago and KC spread activity.  Dec/March wheat traded from 1/4c out to 2 1/2c as futures broke lower.  March wheat/corn traded from 1.54c down to 1.51 1/2c.

AT 12:00 THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                                             HI                                         LO

Jan beans:  1 lower                           8.87 1/2                                 8.82 1/2

Jan meal:  .20 lower                         299.00                                    296.80

Jan soyoil:  10 higher                       3060                                       3038

March corn:  1 lower                        3.79 3/4                                   3.75 1/4

March wheat:  1/4 higher                 5.33 1/4                                   5.27 1/4

Jan canola:  .90 higher                    458.90                                     456.70

OUTSIDE MARKETS

The stock market drifted aimlessly on either side of even, while crude oil backed away from highs at $58.68/barrel.  The US dollar trades firmer on the day to 98.44.  The Brazilian Real continues weak, and South American hedge pressure was felt in this week's downside bean trade as Brazilian farmer's took advantage of a better exchange rate to get something sold.

CLOSING COMMENTS

Weather in the US this week is now likely to make those last 2 bln bu or so of corn tough to pull in.  The next USDA report in December may not shed more light on this year's problematic growing season, but the Jan report may.  In between now and then, prices may be carving out trading ranges that are low enough for a winter rally to make sense.   December 1 may find prices heading the opposite of a negative November as we sit tight for the December WASDE.  The US/China trade negotiations continue to dangle the phase one carrot in front of trader's faces, but no one is biting for now.  A show-me attitude thus takes center stage.  Good weather in South America remains the focus as prices trend lower for everything but wheat and soyoil.  A sell signal for wheat triggers the end of December.  

Think that we are now getting down to levels that are low enough to attract more business, or could offer a bounce on oversold ideas at the very least.  If short, would probably take something off the table or look for the first good reversal signal that indicates prices are low enough.    

Export sales will be released at 7:30am Friday.  Current advertised estimates are as follows:

Beans:  600-1.2 mt

Meal:    150-300 mt

Soyoil;   5-25 mt

Corn:     400-850 mt

Wheat:  300-600 mt

In the meantime, on behalf of LCF, would like to wish all my readers a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday.  

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America