SPREADS
March crush trades to 75.34c/bu while oilshare trades down to monthly lows at 31.47%. The corn inverse post report remains strong with new highs of 77 1/2c from 63 3/4c, and from overall lows of 48c on a recent sell-off. March/May corn trades from 2c inverse from a 3 1/4c carry, as farmers may have hedged some bushels on this price strength. March/May wheat trades from 1/4c to 3/4c carry. March wheat/corn trades from 1.43 1/2c down to 1.32 1/4c. March/May meal trades to an inverse high at $7.90 from $6.10. Open interest in corn yesterday was 17,000 contracts higher for the May contract, and 11,000 contracts higher for corn.
NEWS
Stocks were 70 pts higher in the early going, but are now down 17 pts. The US dollar trades to a low of 89.92 before firming to 90.30.
CALLS
Calls are as follows at the 6 AM hour, which may change heading into the close. They appear to be on the road to the upside in more active trade now.
beans: 2-4 higher
meal: 1.20-2.20 lower
soyoil: 25-30 higher
corn: 19-22 higher
wheat: 8-10 higher
canola: 3.30-3.50 higher
TECHNICALS
Charts remain bullish with many friendly chart signals such as gap-higher trade, break-out formations, which ratchets trading ranges higher. All lower support levels move higher, i.e. March beans at $13.90-$14.00, March meal at $440.00, March corn at $4.90, and March wheat at $6.40 from $6.30. March soyoil is a 42c-45c possible high trading range.
March Beans: Prices break-out over the $14.00 level, triggering buy-stops and a move to current contract highs at $14.36 1/2. It is not unusual for the bean market to tack on 30-35c once it crosses a major benchmark, and could eventually carve out a $14.00-14.50 trading range, targeting $14.80 eventually. First support points hold, and the market is extremely overbought at 87%, a level that warrants caution.
first support: 14.15/$14.20
resistance: $14.30-$14.40
possible range: much the same or lower
March Meal: Prices traded to new contract highs into the report, and afterwards with a new ctr high at $471.40. The market would likely benefit from back and fill, but lower support now moves up to $440.00 from $430.00. However, if needing to price it has been characteristic for this market to find a good break, always followed by new highs. Look for more of the same with the target high moving back to $480.00. The vertical straight up rally could be met by a period of price congestion in the form of a bull flag, as often happens after bullish reports. It is still a buying opportunity should prices turn weak.
first support: $458.00-$462.00
resistance: $469.00-$472.00
possible range: much the same
March Soyoil: The market is lagging the pace of the rallies elsewhere, as prices pullback to 4185c to trade back over 43c. It was the one market not to move to contract highs yesterday. However, the major trend has been higher, so would look for any move back through 4380c to sponsor a larger rally back towards contract highs. Look for a 42c to possible highs of 45c.
first support: 4240c-4250c
resistance: 4350c
possible range: much the same
March Corn: The market moved over $5.02 3/4, the prev. ctr high, to new contract highs of $5.39. THe target high moves back to $5.50. The market is extremely overbot, and needs to correct some of this. However, would look for the trading range lows to move up to $5.00, or even $5.10 on a larger pullback. Gap closure at $5.17 will also provide major support, and would expect a bounce should we go there first time out. Given the current bullish formation, gap-fill may not be easy to do.
first support: $5.25
resistance: $5.35-$5.40
possible range: much the same
March Wheat: The major trading range notched higher, with trading range lows of $6.30 and new ctr highs at $6.75 3/4. New highs could be around the corner, but if long would prefer to lighten up at these new highs, as the chart is prone to breaking down quickly when short-covering or new buying relaxes. Good support moves up to $6.42 to $6.50, and look to hold if we go there.
first support: $6.50
resistance: $6.75/$6.80
possible range: much the same
MARCH BEANS
The bull market continues with a new ctr high at $14.36 1/2. The break-out to the upside crossed at $13.90, which now becomes support on a pullback of size. There is still no market top, and the market has systematically placed new highs followed by 40-50c breaks to alleviate overbot conditions. Today, the RSI is at a very high 87%, which again is a level that cannot sustain. The target high for the move now moves back to where crossing lines of resistance lay, at $14.80, but it may take a bumpy ride to get there. Look for a pullback to $14.00 to find support in a market that has yet to place its overall high.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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