SPREADS
Dec crush trades to 78c/bu, which is in recovery mode off the lows this week of 73c/bu. Dec oilshare trades to 33.13%. Corn spreads widen a touch as harvest rolls along. Dec/March corn trades out to 11 3/4c, with Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trading out to 17 3/4c from 15 1/4c. Nov/Jan beans trade from 13 1/2c to 14c, while Jan/March trades from 11 1/4c out to 12 1/4c. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.28 3/4c up to 1.32c. Dec/March wheat narrows into 4 1/2c from 5c.
PALM OIL
Malaysian cash palm offers for RDB palm oil closed unchanged at $535.00/mt.
NEWS
Stocks are mixed with the Dow off 9 pts. The feature continues to be the weaker US dollar which trades down to 97.42. Crude trades up to $54.62/barrel.
REPORTS
Export Sales:
- Beans: 2019/20 net 1.6 mt (vs. an expected 900-1.5 good)
- Meal: 2019/20 net 152,900 mt (vs. an expected 150-400 poor)
- Soyoil: 2019/20 net 4,000 mt (vs. an expected 0-25 tmt poor)
- Corn: 2019/20 net 368,600 mt and 20/21 net minus 100 (vs. an expected 400-800 tmt poor, but not unexpected)
- Wheat: 394,100 mt (vs. an expected 250-550)
Sales were poor for everything but beans / wheat.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 1/2-1 higher
meal: .20-.30 higher
soyoil: 2-4 higher
corn: 2 1/2-3 lower
wheat: 1 1/2-2 lower
canola: 90-1.10 lower
TECHNICALS
Nov Beans: Consolidating from $9.25-$9.45. For the day the market begins on trendline support at $9.30 with resistance overhead at $9.40. The trend higher is strong, so would continue to own pullbacks. Overall trading range is from $9.10-$9.45, and could straddle/strangle with an upside exit.
first support: $9.29-$9.31
resistance: $9.39
possible range: much the same
Dec Meal: Prices in a trading range from $301.00 up to $315.00, but back below the 100-day moving average of $309.00. For the day trendline support moves up to $304.00 and if we get back to that level would expect it to hold.
trendline support: $304.00
first support: $306.00
resistance: 308.00
possible range: $305.00-$308.50 or higher
Dec Soyoil: New market highs this week at 3076c were followed by a period of price consolidation. Good support now moves up to 3020-3025c, with the possibility of testing highs of 3075c-3080c if key support can hold on the open.
first support: 3025c-3030c
resistance: 3065c/3070c
possible range: much the same
Dec Corn: Consolidating from $3.87-$4.00, with resistance moving down to $3.97 and support still located at recent lows of $3.88. On a weaker start, think corn will follow wheat, which if turns higher will add spillover support.
first support: $3.89-$3.90
resistance: $3.97
possible range: much the same
Dec Wheat: Prices begin weaker, but the chart just placed a new high for the move up. Therefore, would not be surprised to see prices turn higher and attempt to target $5.30. Any trade over $5.30 targets $5.45, with air in between.
first support: $5.15/$5.18
resistance: $5.27/$5.28
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER CORN
The trading range is from $3.80-$4.02. The trend is extremely weak with little follow-through to either side as we sit in congestion trade. There are multiple lows from $3.87-$3.91, and funds are short about 115K corn. Considering harvest pressure, prices have held in nicely, and bears will not be rewarded until we open and break $3.87, the recent low, which then suggests a larger pullback. At this point, the chart does not look bearish, as sitting close to recent highs is more positive than negative.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America