World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - All Technical Today

SPREADS

Dec crush trades to 78c/bu, which is in recovery mode off the lows this week of 73c/bu.  Dec oilshare trades to 33.13%.  Corn spreads widen a touch as harvest rolls along.  Dec/March corn trades out to 11 3/4c, with Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trading out to 17 3/4c from 15 1/4c.  Nov/Jan beans trade from 13 1/2c to 14c, while Jan/March trades from 11 1/4c out to 12 1/4c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.28 3/4c up to 1.32c.  Dec/March wheat narrows into 4 1/2c from 5c.  

PALM OIL

Malaysian cash palm offers for RDB palm oil closed unchanged at $535.00/mt.  

NEWS

Stocks are mixed with the Dow off 9 pts.  The feature continues to be the weaker US dollar which trades down to 97.42.  Crude trades up to $54.62/barrel.

REPORTS

Export Sales:

  • Beans:  2019/20 net 1.6 mt (vs. an expected 900-1.5 good)
  • Meal:    2019/20 net 152,900 mt (vs. an expected 150-400 poor)
  • Soyoil:  2019/20 net 4,000 mt  (vs. an expected 0-25 tmt  poor)
  • Corn:   2019/20 net 368,600 mt and 20/21 net minus 100 (vs. an expected 400-800 tmt  poor, but not unexpected)
  • Wheat:  394,100 mt (vs. an expected 250-550)

Sales were poor for everything but beans / wheat.  

CALLS

Calls today are as follows: 

beans: 1/2-1 higher

meal: .20-.30 higher 

soyoil: 2-4 higher

corn:  2 1/2-3 lower

wheat:  1 1/2-2 lower

canola:  90-1.10 lower

TECHNICALS

Nov Beans:  Consolidating from $9.25-$9.45.  For the day the market begins on trendline support at $9.30 with resistance overhead at $9.40.  The trend higher is strong, so would continue to own pullbacks.  Overall trading range is from $9.10-$9.45, and could straddle/strangle with an upside exit.

first support: $9.29-$9.31

resistance:  $9.39

possible range: much the same 

Dec Meal: Prices in a trading range from $301.00 up to $315.00, but back below the 100-day moving average of $309.00.  For the day trendline support moves up to $304.00 and if we get back to that level would expect it to hold.  

trendline support: $304.00

first support: $306.00

resistance:  308.00

possible range: $305.00-$308.50 or higher

Dec Soyoil:  New market highs this week at 3076c were followed by a period of price consolidation.  Good support now moves up to 3020-3025c, with the possibility of testing highs of 3075c-3080c if key support can hold on the open.  

first support: 3025c-3030c

resistance:  3065c/3070c

possible range: much the same 

Dec Corn:  Consolidating from $3.87-$4.00, with resistance moving down to $3.97 and support still located at recent lows of $3.88.  On a weaker start, think corn will follow wheat, which if turns higher will add spillover support.  

first support: $3.89-$3.90

resistance:  $3.97

possible range: much the same

Dec Wheat:  Prices begin weaker, but the chart just placed a new high for the move up.  Therefore, would not be surprised to see prices turn higher and attempt to target $5.30.  Any trade over $5.30 targets $5.45, with air in between.

first support: $5.15/$5.18

resistance:  $5.27/$5.28

possible range: much the same

DECEMBER CORN

The trading range is from $3.80-$4.02.  The trend is extremely weak with little follow-through to either side as we sit in congestion trade.  There are multiple lows from $3.87-$3.91, and funds are short about 115K corn.  Considering harvest pressure, prices have held in nicely, and bears will not be rewarded until we open and break $3.87, the recent low, which then suggests a larger pullback.  At this point, the chart does not look bearish, as sitting close to recent highs is more positive than negative.  

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