SPREADS
March crush firmed to 1.04c/bu while oilshare is steady at 33.86%. Jan/March beans trades from 14 1/2c to 14 3/4. March/May meal trades from $3.20 to $3.30. Dec/March corn trades back out to 9 1/2c from 9c, and values that were into 8c. March/May corn widens out to 6c from 5 3/4. March wheat/corn trades from 1.42c to 1.45c.
PALM OIL
Feb. closed up 24 ringgits. Malaysian gov. Oct. export data released showed palm oil exports for the month fell 9.8% from the year earlier to 3.7 bln. Very little cash business today, and rumors about Chinese wash-outs, which have not yet transpired. India seems well stocked, but if prices head higher than they will jump back into the market.
NEWS
Stocks are bouncing back today up 120 pts with crude oil prices rising to $57.23/barrel. The US dollar weakens to 97.54.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 3-5 higher
meal: 80-1.00 higher
soyoil: 10-14 higher
corn: 1/2 higher
wheat: 1 higher
canola: 1.80-2.00 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 20,000 mt of soyoil sold to Morocco in 2019/20.
TECHNICALS
Jan Beans: Major direction is lower and the market still has to verify that the overall lows are in. Would look for the chart to begin to build a base from $8.65-$8.85, with trade over $8.85 triggering further upside activity. The relative strength index still sits at extremely oversold conditions, and usually a 9% RSI will enter into correction phase.
first support: $8.72
trendline resistance: $8.80/$8.82
possible range: much the same or lower
Jan Meal: Major direction is lower and the market is in a small correction phase from contract lows of $292.60. New lows have to verify that they can hold, and any turn to the upside of key resistance at $298.00 will invite a higher trade, and an eventual $292.00-$303.00/$305.00 trading range.
first support: $294.00
resistance: $297.00
possible range: much the same or higher
Jan Soyoil: Prices have corrected from the recent high trade at 3217c to nearly test the target low of 30c. Three lows are now forming a bit of a base from 3012c-3015c, and should hold a break again. Since the major direction has been lower, any break of the PM session low of 3015c would be extremely negative and suggest that we move down towards 2980c.
key support: 3010c
resistance: 3055c/3060c - upper resistance 3080c
possible range: 3015c-3070c or lower
March Corn: Major direction is sideways, and in the process of keeping $3.80 intact, trying to form a base from $3.75-$3.80. However, the market has traded back to $3.80 as well, and stronger markets continue to trend up and away from support levels. Look for a possible continued sideways trade from $3.75 - $3.85. Overall trading range could be from $3.73 - $3.93 or higher.
key support: $3.79
resistance: $3.84 1/2/$3.85
possible range: much the same
March Wheat: Prices are correcting off recent highs at $5.46, bouncing off multiple key support levels at $5.22. If long and the market takes out $5.22, there is not much to stop a potential fall down towards key lower support at $5.11. If short, would take something off the table at $5.22 and hold the rest in case we break it.
key support: $5.22/$5.25
resistance: $5.35
possible range: much the same or lower
JANUARY MEAL
Prices placed new contract lows this week at $292.60, with a modest turn higher from lower. Major direction is lower, and the chart will not stabilize until we cross $298.00, which is trendline resistance for the day. While there is not a more definitive reversal signal in place, the direction higher from lower this AM helps to build a case for recovery, and we eventually move into a $290.00 (should we break again) to a $303.00/$305.00 trading range. If needing to price something, think the chart is saying that this is a very good opportunity.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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