World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Chop Ahead of the Report

SPREADS

Sep. crush trades to 76.89c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.43%.   Sep/Dec corn narrows into 7 1/4c from 8c, while Sep/Dec wheat trades into 2c from 5 3/4c.  Sep wheat /corn trades from 1.73 1/2c down to 1.66c.  Sep/Dec meal trades from $5.80 to $5.20.  

PALM OIL

Sep. down 3 ringgits. 

NEWS

Stocks are slightly weaker with the US dollar lower trading down to 96.23.  Crude oil trades down to $40.61/barrel.

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans:  8-10 higher

meal:  3.40-3.50 higher

soyoil:  4-5 higher

corn:  5-7 higher

wheat:  3 1/2-4 higher

canola:  .40-.80 higher

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Prices in a sideways trading range but trying to establish if the $8.95-$9.00 is a place of support for the potential for a larger rally.  Funds are long and the trend is higher.  Look to own pullbacks and think that prices can eventually move beyond the 200 day moving average of $9.12 3/4.

first support: $9.03

resistance:  $9.12/$9.13

possible range: much the same 

December Meal:  Prices traded lower and tested the bottom key support at the 100 day moving average of $301.00 which held nicely for a rally to key resistance from $305.00/$308.00.  The top end of this rally has not been determined yet, and would look to test $308.00 again for a possible target high from $312.00/$315.00.

first support: 303.00

resistance:  $305.00/$307.00

possible range: much the same

December Soyoil:  Prices hit a new trading range high this week, closing a previous gap at 2964c to trade towards the 30c benchmark.  Best support under the market is 2880c, but we may not go there.  Would look for further congestion trade from 29c-30c, but could eventually target 30c or higher.

first support: 2915c

resistance:  2940c/2955c

possible range: much the same or higher

December Corn:  Prices in a sideways range from $3.30-$3.63.  The rally does not appear complete yet, and the market has now established that $3.45-$3.48 is good support.   Look for a challenge of double highs at $3.63.  Top targets include $3.70- upper target $3.80.

first support: $3.56

resistance:  $3.62/$3.63

possible range: much the same or higher

September Wheat:  Prices move back over the $5.00 level which moves the trading range back up to $5.00-$5.35.  Would look for support to now move up to $5.10/$5.12 on a pullback, and for the market to try to trigger buy-stops over the 100 day moving average of $5.26.  If wanting to sell the market, would prefer to do so at the market top which could be located a bit higher from $5.28/$5.33.  Look for opening strength to probably see follow-through.

first support: $5.18

resistance:  $5.25/$5.28

possible range: much the same

DECEMBER CORN

Major direction is higher from lower, and the rally does not appear to be complete.  Double highs are located at $3.63, but are probably not enough to stop further strength.  Past $3.63 would look for the market to eventually target previous highs at $3.71.  For the day, trendline resistance is located at $3.69, and on opening strength prices could head there for an eventual $3.40-$3.70 /$3.75 trading range.

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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