SPREADS
Jan crush trades up to 96.65c/bu while oilshare works down to 33.45%. Dec/March corn spread remains firm at 8 1/2c from 8 3/4c, while Dec 19/Dec 20 trades from 21 3/4c to 22 1/2c. Dec/March meal trades from $5.10 to $5.50. Dec/March wheat firms into 4 1/4c from 4 3/4c. Jan/March beans trade from 13c to 13 1/2c.
PALM OIL
Jan up 23 ringgits on a slight raise in the Nov 1-15 export picture (rumors that exports could be down 5-6% now down only 3%), and SPPOMA production estimates that suggest production could be down 11%.
NEWS
The Dow is off 43 pts this morning with crude up to $57.79/barrel and the US dollar firmer at 98.42.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 2 1/2-3 lower
meal: 80-1.00 lower
soyoil; 3-5 lower
corn: 1/2 higher
wheat: 1/2 lower
canola: .20-30 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 129,000 mt of beans sold to China in 2019/20 (confirming rumors of business transacted yesterday).
TECHNICALS
Jan Beans: Direction remains weak as more support lines and moving averages are violated, which turns previous support into resistance. That resistance moves down to $9.20 today and best support under the market is located at $9.12 where previous tops are located from last Sep. Since the market will open right on key support, it increases the chance that we have an extension day lower, and think the chance of heading towards $9.00 is do-able. IF short from $9.20 would be scale down covering here to $9.00, where we may finally find some support.
key support: $9.11 1/2-$9.12
lower support: $9.00
resistance: $9.18
possible range: $9.08-$9.18 or higher
Dec Meal: Prices sideways but very good support is located at $301.00 should we go there, and would be pricing or trying the long side of this market. Market tops are at $306.00. On a weak start think we probably test $301.50 eventually. Could continue to straddle/strangle this market from $295.00-$315.00, big picture.
key support: $301.80/$302.00
resistance: $305.50/$306.00
possible range; much the same
Dec Soyoil: Prices sliding back from highs at 3196c, with the best support under the market located now at 30c, with interim support at 3030c. If short and wanting to cover, any move towards 30c would be a good place to cover a short, or try the long side of the market.
first support: 3045c
resistance: 3090c/31c
possible range: 3055c to 31c
Dec Corn: Prices are sideways from $3.72 up to $3.84. The downside momentum seems to have been lost, but to see better support prices need to turn to the upside of the current downtrend channel. Target lows are still $3.68/$3.70 for a $3.70-$3.90 broader trading range.
first support: $3.73
resistance: $3.77 1/2/$3.78
possible range: much the same
Dec Wheat: Prices are sideways but we begin the morning on key support located at $5.05. If short, need the market to open and break this level which provides for further selling pressure that takes us down to $5.00 once again. Could straddle/strangle the market from $5.00-$5.35 with a downside exit.
key support: $5.04/$5.05
resistance: $5.13/$5.14
possible range: much the same or lower
DECEMBER CORN
Prices are in a trading range from $3.72 up to recent highs post Nov report of $3.84. This week has offered up sideways action from lower, which as stalled the downside of the market as more shorts cover. In order to pick up steam to the upside, need to trade over trendline resistance, which is located at $3.78/$3.80. In lieu of major short positions, any trade back over $3.80 triggers buying. Big picture trading range is from $3.70-$3.90, or slightly lower if the market can penetrate $3.70 at some point, in which we probably adjust to a $3.65-$3.85 market. March corn trading range is now from $3.80-$3.92, with key resistance for the day from $3.86/$3.88.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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