World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Firmer Day Against a Lower Trend

SPREADS

March crush margins still remain good at 1.00c/bu, while oilshare begins to firm off its corrective phase at 33.86%.  Dec/March corn trades back out to 11c in heavy volumes.  Dec/March Chicago wheat trades briefly to a 3/4c inverse yesterday, and trades from 1/4c to 1c today carry today.   Dec wheat continues to gain on corn, and Chicago wheat on KC.  March wheat/corn trades from 1.53c to 1.54c.    March/May corn trades from 5 3/4c to 6c.  Jan/March beans trades out to 14 1/2c from 14 1/4c while March/May meal trades $3.60 to $3.80.    

PALM OIL

Feb up 14 ringgits, coming back at the end of the day.  India not buying and China claiming they have enough to head into the Lunar New Year.  

NEWS

Stocks are firmer this morning up 8 pts in quiet volume trade.  The US economy grew at a moderate 2.1% annual rate last quarter, slightly faster than first estimated.  The economy started the year with a 3.1% GDP, with more analysts forecasting growth to weaken due to the US/China trade war.  

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans: 1 1/2-2 higher

meal:  80-1.20 higher

soyoil:  5-8 higher 

corn:  1/2 higher

wheat:  1 1/2-2 higher

canola:  .30-.60 higher

First notice day is Friday, Nov 29, with the trade not expecting wheat deliveries, but moderate to heavy deliveries for beans, meal, and soyoil.

TECHNICALS

Jan Beans:  The major trend is lower as the market tries to find a support level.  New lows beget new lows and the chart bounced off one cycle low, but another arrives at $8.77 ½, should we go further down.  Since we begin so close to $8.82, would increase the chance of testing it once again.  If short, would be scale down covering from $8.77-$8.82.

lower support: $8.77/$8.80

resistance:  $8.89/$8.90

possible range: much the same

Jan Meal: Major trend is lower and once prices broke through $300.00 there was simply not any back support to stop a slide towards $295.00.  Despite a steady trade the recent low has to really prove it can hold, and was not met by a good reversal trade.  On another break would look to perhaps move towards $295.00, but could bounce should we go there for a $295.00-$305.00 temporary trading range.

lower support: $295.00

first support: $298.00

resistance:  $300.00

possible range: $296.00-$299.00 or higher

January Soyoil:  Price action stabilized at 3030c and prices are trying to move back over the neckline break of a possible head and shoulders topping formation.  A move back over 3066c would negate the pattern and could designate this as a topping formation that yielded important house-cleaning at the very least.  Failure against 3065c-3070c suggests that prices could still break lower towards 30c for a 30c-32c trading range.

key lower support: 3025c

resistance:  3066c/3070c

possible range: much the same or lower

March Corn:  Overall trading range has turned sideways from lower, losing downside momentum.  However, if wheat continues to sustain a rally towards $5.40 then corn will follow.   Funds are short and failure to close over $3.80 on a consistent level keeps price action weaker, suggesting another break could be coming.  This chart may be trying to find a bottom, but a break of $3.77 suggests we are perhaps on a path to test $3.65/$3.70.

first support: $3.77

resistance:  $3.81

possible range: much the same or lower

March Wheat:  The chart is very constructive with solid support at $5.11 followed by a break-out to the upside into the $5.30 level of trade.  The setback took the market to first support at $5.25 which held.  Would look for this chart to target $5.39 before it enters into a larger downside correction.

key lower support: $5.28

resistance:  $5.35/$5.38

possible range: much the same or lower

MARCH WHEAT

Overall trading range is from $5.00 to possible highs of $5.39.  The rally here does not look to be finished yet, with the vertical advance upward over previous tops at $5.22 which will cushion a market break.  The pullback yesterday was shallow given the size of the rally upward.  Trade over $5.35 takes the market to the peak high of $5.40, and think we are probably headed there given the price pattern and the recent strength.  If long from $5.10 or $5.22, then today's extension rally towards $5.40 would be a good place to take something off the table.   

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