SPREADS
Sep. crush trades at 81.48c/bu while oilshare trades over 33.0% to 33.15%. July/Dec corn narrows to 12 3/4c from 13 1/4c, while Jul/Sep trades from 4 1/2c to 5c. July/Nov beans trades to 3 3/4c to 5c, while July/August trades to a 3/4c inverse. July/Dec meal trades from $6.70 to $7.50.
PALM OIL
Cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein were unchanged Monday at $632.50/mt and $635.00 /mt, respectively. 2020 palm oil exports forecast by Malaysian Palm Oil Board released Monday shows they expect total palm oil exports off by 10.5% to 16.5 mmt. 2020 ending stocks are at an estimated 2.3 mmt, up 14.5% from year ago. According to Oil World's analyst Mielke, lower worldwide demand this year due to coronavirus will see consumption fall for the first time, expecting 19/20 numbers to trend lower by 2.2 mmt, which is unprecedented.
NEWS
Stocks are higher up 177 pts while energy prices are trading down to $39.12/barrel. The US dollar trades lower down to 97.29.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 1 1/2-2 lower
meal: .10-.80 lower
soyoil: 5-8 lower
corn: 2-2 1/2 lower
wheat: 1 1/2-2 lower
canola: steady
TECHNICALS
September Corn: Futures are moving sideways from lows of $3.30-$3.39. Support for the day moves up to $3.32/$3.33, and if broken could lead to more selling activity. On a weaker start, if prices quickly go into the positive we may again test $3.39, which would probably see an upside exit as buy-stops are triggered. Trade over $3.39 targets $3.43 first, and $3.45 secondly.
first support: $3.33
resistance: $3.38
possible range: much the same or higher
September Wheat: Futures are moving sideways/lower and begins the day on major support at $4.81. The long - term trendline crosses at $4.83, and therefore trade back over the morning high of $4.86 would create further short-covering. New lows beget new lows and funds are short. If prices crack $4.80 look to head to $4.65/$4.70 before stabilization occurs. So far there is not a good reversal signal off the low to operate on, meaning that prices will have to stay over $4.83.
first support: $4.79-$4.82
resistance: $4.88/$4.90
possible range: much the same or lower
November Beans: Prices are sideways with best visual support for the day at $8.75 should we go there, and key resistance still at $8.85. Funds are slightly long and prices have the ability to bounce back off their lows, which is price positive. Would continue to cover shorts on good breaks, while the chart suggests that prices will continue to find buying interest on breaks. Trade over $8.85 targets $8.92, and then $9.00.
first support: $8.75
resistance: $8.83/$8.84
possible range: much the same or higher
July Soyoil: Prices are probably a 27c-29c trading range, but have yet to attain the upside target. Very strong support is located at 28c where multiple moving averages are located. If short, would cover on a break towards 28c, though it appears more likely that prices would target gap closure at 2890c before we see 28c.
first support: 2815c/2820c
resistance: 2870c
possible range: much the same
July Meal: Prices begin at the bottom of a trading range from $281.80 to $295.00. Prices begin on key support at $286.00 and would look for both sides of this market to trade. If needing to price, this is a good time to do so despite opening weakness.
first support: $285.00
resistance: $288.00
possible range; much the same
SEPTEMBER CORN
Overall trading range has been from recent lows of $3.30 up to $3.39. Funds are net short, but the market has been moving in a slight up-trend channel. Very strong support is located at the 20-day moving average and bottom of channel, which both cross at $3.32. Would note that higher lows have been placed, which is constructive. If funds continue to use pullbacks to cover, then eventually the market will trade to the upside of $3.39 to head into resistance from $3.43/$3.45. The longer prices retain a bid, the greater the chance for a larger rally.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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