World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Higher to Mixed

SPREADS

Dec crush firms to 82c/bu while oilshare sits at 33.31%.  Corn spreads are narrower with Dec/March trading into 11 1/4c from 12c, and Dec 19/Dec 20 trading out to 21 1/2c.  Dec/March wheat trades from 4 3/4c to 5 1/2c.  Jan/March beans trades out to 11 3/4c from 11 1/4c, while Nov/Jan widens out to 14 1/2c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.30 1/2c to 1.31c.  Dec/March oil spread trades from 46 to 47 pts. 

PALM OIL

Nov cash offers for palm oil +15,00/mt higher, rising to 16 month highs.  Oct. palm oil exports are estimated to be 10% higher than Sep., spilling over into soyoil futures this morning.    Malaysia's trade and industry minister said talks were still on track for approval of a trade deal between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and six Asia-Pacific countries.  

NEWS

Stocks are higher today, trading up 40 pts.  Crude oil values are higher as well, trading up to $56.28/barrel.  The US dollar is weaker, trading to 97.28 which is mostly supportive for wheat.  

REPORTS

Export sales:

Beans:  2019/20 net 475,200 mt  (vs. an expected 800-1.6)

Meal:    2019/20 net 110,400 mt and 2020/21 minus 300 tmt (vs. an expected 100-350)

Soyoil:  2019/20 net 3,300 mt (vs. an expected 8-20)

Corn:  2019/20 net 491,500 mt and 2020/21 net 91,400 (vs. an expected 450-850)

Wheat:  2019/20 net 262,400 mt (vs. an expected 300-600)

Sales were fairly poor across the board.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans: 1-2 higher

meal:  mixed

soyoil:  18-22 higher

corn:  1/2-1 higher

wheat:  mixed

canola:  1.20 lower

BUSINESS

USDA reports 240,000 mt of beans sold to China for 2019/20.  

Egypt's GASC reportedly purchased 77,500 mt of vegoils at a tender Wed, which included 22,500 mt of sunflower oil, and 50,000 mt of soyoil.  

TECHNICALS

Jan Beans:  Futures are sideways trading from $9.40-$9.59 1/2, but it has been more difficult for the market to penetrate the lows than to rally towards the highs.  The up-trend is strong and traders will look for pullbacks to own.  Trade over $9.60 targets $9.75/$9.80, though we are at the highest end of the trading range.

first support: $9.42

resistance:  $9.52

possible range: much the same or higher

Dec Meal:  Prices will begin the day weaker as the major direction sideways as opposed to soyoil's higher trend.  On a break, would look to target $306.00 again, which may hold for a regrouping rally.

first support: $306.00

resistance:  $309.00

possible range: much the same or higher

Dec Soyoil:  Major direction is higher, and pullbacks remain well supported. For the day, a pullback towards 3050c to 3060c should hold, as it appears the market could be ready to challenge 31c once again.  

first support: 3065c/3070c

resistance:  31c to 3111c

possible range: much the same or lower

Dec Corn:  The market is moving between $3.84-$4.00, and since it is at the lower end of the range without much direction would continue to own or cover short positions when prices get down towards $3.83-$3.84.  For the day, the chart looks more constructive than not, turning higher from lower and in the process coming up against the top of the downtrend channel.  This is probably the first day that the chart offers up the chance for a better rally back towards $3.95, which would break the down-trend pattern.

first support: $3.86

resistance: $3.91

possible range: much the same

Dec Wheat: Prices are rangebound from $5.15 - $5.35 but bouncing off lower support is always more constructive.  The low of the PM session is a lower that has been in place before the market has rallied, at $5.18 3/4c.  Would consider covering shorts from $5.15-$5.20, as short-covering could find prices moving back towards $5.35 again.

first support: $5.15/$5.18

resistance: $5.25 /$5.28

possible range: much the same

DECEMBER SOYOIL

Major direction has been for the market to take a steady path higher from 30c-31c.  Two fresh highs are at 31c, and trendline resistance crosses today from 31c up to 3111c, the peak high trade back from last March.  The market has systematically placed new highs followed by 50 pt sell-offs, so good lower support moves up to 3050c today.  Trendline resistance now is fairly strong at 31c should we go there, but the chart suggests we could test 31c to test the highs from last March eventually.  Settlement over 31c targets 3150c.

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