SPREADS

Sep. crush trades down to 80.33c/bu while oilshare is back under 33.0% to trade to 32.77%.  The key feature as far as spread activity goes is in the nearby bean spread, which are extremely firm.  July/August bean spread trades to a new inverse high of 3 3/4c from what was a 3c carry two weeks ago.  July/Nov trades into a 1c inverse from what was a 14c carry two weeks ago.  Spillover strength is noted in corn, where July/Dec firms to 11c from 11 3/4c and what was at one point a 19c carry.   July/Sep corn trades into 3 1/2c from 4c.  July/Dec meal trades from $6.20 to $6.70. 

PALM OIL

Sep. down 30 ringgits with cash offers for RBD palm and olein down $5/mt ending at $627.50/mt and $630.00/mt, respectively.

NEWS

Stocks are down 178 pts while crude oil prices trade back below $40/barrel.  The US dollar firms to 96.55.  

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans: mixed/firm

meal:  80-1.00 higher 

soyoil:  15-20 lower

corn:  1/2 higher

wheat:  mixed/lower

canola:  steady/firm

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Sideways trade from $8.65-$8.85, and could continue to play that range for now.  However, would still prefer to own bean breaks for a possible upside trade, though multiple tops at $8.80 could be progressively harder to clear.  

first support: $8.70

resistance: $8.79-$8.80

possible range; much the same

July Meal:  Prices trending sideways with good support at $285.00 and overhead resistance for the day at $289.00.  If needing to price something, think that any pullback to $285.00 will hold for a continued $285.00-$295.00 trading range.

first support: $285.50

resistance:  $288.00/$288.50

possible range; much the same

July Soyoil:  Interesting trade in that prices begin around the 28c level, and just above key critical support levels at 2790c.  Both the 100-day and 20-day moving average cross around 2789c, which should hold a break if prices go there.  Any trade under 2785c will now suggest that a larger sell-off would be coming.    If short soyoil, this is a good place to take some off and keep the rest in case prices violate 2790c to the downside.  If wanting to own, could do so here with a tight stop. 

key support: 2788-2790c

resistance:  2835c

possible range: much the same or lower

Sep. Corn:  Trendline support for the day crosses at the 50-day moving average line of $3.28, and that is the low of the PM session.  As such, could day trade this one from the long side, with a possible retracement up towards $3.32/$3.35 again.  The clear lack of trend suggests that there might be little to any follow-through at this moment to the downside, and would look for the USDA report to help prices grind outside the current range.

good support: $3.28

resistance: $3.32/$3.33

possible range: much the same 

Sep. Wheat:  The market is trying to establish a bottom, with trendline support on another break at $4.83, and overhead resistance for the day at $4.93.  Any move above $4.95 will retrace towards $5.00/$5.05 first, and then $5.15 at the top.

first support: $4.83

resistance: $4.943 

possible range: much the same

SEPTEMBER WHEAT

Big picture trading range is from $4.81 to $5.15.  The market is attempting to put in retracement, but has not traveled far enough off the lows of the move to concretely say the downside is over, or to do a Fib. retracement.  However, a small "v" bottom is in place, and trade over $4.95 has little back resistance to stop a larger recovery.  If short, would elect to scale-down cover, and go long if prices can trade above $4.95 for a retracement towards $5.15.  

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America