World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report

SPREADS

Sep. crush trades top 76.35c/bu while oilshare is a steady 32.33%.  Spreads are firmer with Sep/Dec corn narrowing into 7 3/4c from 8 1/2c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades into 4 1/4c from 5 1/4c.  August /Nov beans narrows into 3 1/2c from 5 1/2c.  Sep wheat/corn trades from 1.75c to 1.74c.  Sep/Dec meal trades from $5.50 to $5.80.  

PALM OIL

Prices closed higher as ending stocks fell.  Palm oil inventories fell 6.3% for the end of June from a month earlier, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.  Its forecast for June 2020 palm oil production is at 1.88 mmt vs. expected 1.783 mmt, and 1.651 mmt in May 2020.  June ending stocks were estimated at 1.901 mmt, below 1.935 mmt.  

NEWS

Stocks are on the defensive this AM, trading down 60 pts.  Crude oil seems to be the driving factor with prices trading back below $40/barrel to $38.54/barrel.  The US dollar trades to 96.54.

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans: steady

meal:  .20-.30 lower

soyoil:  4-8 higher

corn:  1 1/2-2 lower

wheat:  steady

canola:  .30-.60 lower

BUSINESS

Rumors of sale of HRW to China were confirmed this AM.

USDA reports 190,000 mt of Hard Red Spring wheat was sold to China for 20/21

USDA reports 130,000 mt of Hard Red Winter wheat was sold to China for 20/21

USDA reports 1,365,000 mt of corn was sold to China

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Prices bend but they do not break.  Support levels move to double lows at $8.95, so any break of this level would lead to a larger sell-off.  At this point the major trend has been higher, and pullbacks will be met with buying interest.  Trading range overall is from $8.80-$9.12, but could adjust upward.  If short would cover breaks and look for places to own.

first support: $8.97

resistance:  $9.07/$9.10

possible range: much the same but depends on the report

December Meal:  Prices are building in some resistance from $305.00-$307.00, so need a quick trip higher back over $307.00 in order to avoid a larger sell-off towards $300.00.  However, soyoil/meal look to adjust today in soyoil's favor, so a bit of a sell-off is not out of the question.

first support: 303.00

resistance:  $306.00

possible range: much the same but depends on the report

December Soyoil:  Prices continue to trade in a wide sideways pattern.  Best support under the market if prices break 2866c is 2830c where converging moving averages are located.  The rally off the low of 2866c shows good resiliency, and therefore would look to cover a short if the market falls back towards 2830-2860c, and go long.   A break to 2880c may also hold for higher trade.  

first support: 2870c/2880c

resistance:  2915/2920c

possible range: much the same but depends on the report

December Corn:  Overall trading range for now is $3.35/$3.63 but could adjust higher.  The 100-day moving average is located at $3.51, with $3.47 a recent low.  Prices closed on a defensive note, but if short would elect to cover something in a break towards $3.45.   

first support: $3.51/$3.52

resistance:  $3.58

possible range: much the same but depends on the report

September Wheat:  Contract low is $4.71 but the rally has returned the lower end of the trading range back to $5.00.  Stiff resistance is located at $5.33/$5.35, and the market may test it.  If long, would be a good place to take something off, but keep the rest in case prices move above it.   For now, it appears as though opening values could continue to trend higher towards a test of major resistance on the hunt for buy-stops.

first support: $5.18/$5.22

resistance:  $5.28/$5.32

possible range: much the same but depends on the report

DECEMBER CORN

Overall trading range has been adjusted higher with double tops at $3.63 and sloping lines of support that trend down towards $3.40.  The market is moving sideways, but has yet to trigger a reversal signal from the top.  If the report is negative and prices crop down towards the $3.40-$3.45 level, would look for shorts to elect to take something off in lieu of adverse weather advertised for next week.  Until a better reversal signal is triggered, prices could expand to the upside.  

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