World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Reports

SPREADS

Sep. crush trades to 76.65c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.34%.   Jul/Dec corn trades to 8 1/2c carry from 6 1/4c, with Jly/Sep trading from 1/4c to 2 1/2c.  Sep/Dec corn trades from 5 1/2c to 6 1/4c carry.  July/Nov beans trades to a 5c inverse with July/August at a 6c inverse.  July/Dec meal trades from $8.30 out to $9.20.   Sep/Dec wheat trades into 7 3/4c from 8c.  

PALM OIL

- Sep. down 32 ringgits at 2,336 ringgit/mt. 

NEWS

Stocks are 120 pts. higher with crude oil at $39.12/barrel high, and the US dollar trading to 97.11.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans: mixed

meal: .30-.50 higher

soyoil:  10-12 lower

corn:  3 higher

wheat:  3-3 1/2 higher

canola:  1.20-1.50 higher

TECHNICALS  

September Corn:  Major direction is sideways and any trade past $3.24 increases the chance of prices moving towards key resistance from $3.27/$3.28, and a target high of $3.30.  The market is in an overall sideways trade from ctr lows of $3.15-$3.30.  Would look for further strength on the open.

first support:  $3.19

resistance:  $3.25/3.27

possible range: much the same 

September Wheat:  Major direction is lower with prices hitting a new low last week at $4.71.   The market could not climb over resistance at $4.95 which led to the break.  Resistance now moves down to $4.95 and if prices can hold $4.75 could go there on a retracement on short-covering.  Support on a break now is close by at $4.68, and if short would elect to get something covered in should we go there.

lower trendline support: $4.68

first support: $4.72

resistance:  $4.83

possible range: $4.72-$4.83 

November Beans:  Prices broke down to touch key support at $8.56 3/4, with a steady close.  The 50 day moving average crosses at $8.58 and overhead resistance is at double highs of $8.70.  On a slightly weaker start, any break of the $8.58 level could take prices to major trendline support at $8.55.  Since funds are short, prices could target $8.55, which would be a good place to cover something in should we go there.  

Trendline support: $8.55

resistance:  $8.65

possible range: much the same or higher

December Meal:  Prices begin on key support at ctr lows of $290.10.  If the market can hold the current lows would look for upside retracement once again towards the $295.00 level for an overall $290.00-$295.00 trading range.  

key support:  $290.50

resistance:  $293.50

possible range: much the same

December Soyoil:  Prices broke through 28c to hit a trading range low of 2774c.  The 50 day moving average is located at 2790c, so staying over this level is the key to chart stability.  The market rallied to 2950c and this pullback under 28c likely is a good place to cover in a short.

first support: 2780c

resistance:  2815c

possible range: much the same or lower

NOVEMBER BEANS

The overall trading range is from $8.55 to $8.80.  Currently the tops at $8.80 present tougher resistance, while the market is selling off to try to find a trading range low.  The key trendline support for the day is $8.55, with the 50-day moving average at $8.58.  The pattern has been to hold trading range lows and bounce.  Both meal and beans begin close to their lows, so holding opening prices is key to chart stability for both.  

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