SPREADS
March crush trades to 99c/bu while oilshare firms back over 34% to 34.15% on meal's slide against a sideways soyoil trade. Jan/March beans trade from 14 1/4c to 14 3/4c while March/May meal trades out to $4.10 from $3.80. March/May corn trades into 4c from 5c while Dec/March narrows into 9 1/4c. March wheat/corn trades from 1.58 3/4c to 1.60c.
PALM OIL
Down 11 ringgits, with ideas that the market may have overshot to the upside. India is hand to mouth, and traders are watching for signs of wash-outs from China. On the supportive side, production continues to disappoint.
NEWS
Stocks are slightly higher, up 22 pts with the US dollar trading down to 98.22 and crude at $56.67/barrel.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 3-5 higher
meal: 80-1.20 higher
soyoil: 5-8 higher
corn: steady
wheat: 1 lower
canola: 1.20-1.50 higher
TECHNICALS
March Wheat: Overall trading range is from solid support at $5.10 up to new highs of $5.46. With a lower start trendline resistance is now located just overhead at $5.48, and beyond that there is little to stop an advance to $5.54. If long, would probably elect to take something off the table given the advance upward, but keep some in case pullbacks are supported. There is still not a viable reversal signal to indicate that this uptrend is complete, but a lower close today would be a warning.
first support: $5.35
resistance: $5.45
possible range; much the same
March Corn: Prices are now sideways from $3.73-$3.83. For now, the pattern may resume as a sideways trend from $3.73-$3.83 with $3.80 used as a pivot point. At this point, prices have to prove that they can maintain strength, which would come from settlement over $3.80 on a continuous basis. Tougher resistance so top end of the trading range is located at $3.87/$3.88, should we go there. Overall trading range now appears to be from $3.73-$3.93, if the sideways price pattern continues.
first support: $3.77/$3.78
resistance: $3.82 1/2/$3.83
possible range: much the same
Jan Beans: Prices traded down to an interesting point, as $8.77 1/2 was a low point before the rally to current chart highs. Therefore, if short would make sense to lighten up on a position and keep the rest. Would look for the morning bounce to perhaps sustain with a test of the next resistance level, which would be from $8.85 to $8.90. However, the market has to still verify that $8.77 1/2 is a low that can hold, and it could easily be put to the test again.
first support: $8.78
resistance: $8.84/$8.86
possible range: much the same
Jan Soyoil: Prices are congesting from 3025c-3080c, and the price action has been more constructive as of late. The chart may be preparing to enter a wider trading range from 3025c up to 32c, and returning to trade over 31c negates the head and shoulders formation, bringing fresh buying back into the picture. Could straddle/strangle the market from 30c-32c given recent price action, but still need to see prices close back over 31c to promote more fund buying and a return to higher trend.
first support: 3040c
resistance: 3090c
possible range: much the same
Jan Meal: Major direction is lower with the chart placing double lows around $292.80-$293.00. Charts are slightly oversold at 36% but need to drop under 30% to warrant a round of house-cleaning. The ADX remains weak at 17, meaning there is a distinct lack of trend. If needing to price something, double lows provide a good opportunity to price something under $295.00, as this chart could easily retrace up towards the $300.00 again for a $293.00-$303.00 trading range. On a firmer open would look for prices to eventually trade back over $300.00.
first support: $392.50-$393.00
resistance: $296.50/$297.00
possible range; much the same
MARCH BEANS
Major trend is lower with prices still not stable having placed new lows at $8.91 3/4, which is close to $8.91 placed back in Sep. which led to the rally highs of $9.70. The downtrend is strong at 32, meaning that recovery rallies may still be viewed as selling opportunities. However, with oversold conditions at 24% would take this opportunity to probably take a partial short off the table, as any trade back over $9.00 would easily produce a rally towards $9.10 or higher. Overall key support here is $8.85 for a market low up to $9.20 if wanting to straddle or strangle this market.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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