SPREADS
Sep. crush trades to 76.68/barrel while oilshare moves up to 32.87% on soyoil strength. Could look for further oilshare strength today, and move back over 33.0%. Sep/Dec corn narrows into 8 1/2c from 9c, while Sep/Dec wheat trades into 6c from 7c. Sep wheat/corn trades from 1.53 1/4c up to 1.56 1/4c. August / Nov beans narrows into 4 1/2c carry from 5 3/4c. Sep/Dec meal trades from $5.20 to $5.50.
PALM OIL
Sep. palm oil traded 49 ringgits higher. Palm oil rallies to two-week highs following the strong path of soyoil futures yesterday.
NEWS
Stocks are up 23 pts as the market continues to assess the pace of new Covid-19 cases globally. Crude oil prices trade over $40/barrel as the US dollar firms to 97.05.
CALLS
Call today are as follows:
beans: 3-5 lower
meal: 1.80-2.00 lower
soyoil: 4-8 lower
corn: 1 1/2-2 lower
wheat: 2-2 1/2 higher
canola: 90-1.00 higher
TECHNICALS
November Beans: The overall trading range has been bumped in a short time from lows of $8.55 /$8.85 up to new highs closer to $9.10 with an $8.80 possible trading range low. The chart appears a bit toppy right now, favoring a more defensive trade. The pullback under $9.00 sets the chart up for back and fill, and in the process would alleviate overbought concerns. The 200-day moving average at $9.12 1/2 was met but prices could not overcome the top. With the major trend higher look for further pullbacks to find buying interest/short-covering. Moving averages at $8.80-$8.2 are the best to cover a short or try the long side of this market.
first support: $8.92
resistance: $9.02
possible range: much the same
December Meal: The overall trading range has been bumped higher with the recent rally. The 200 day moving average at $308.00 stopped a further price rally, and the lower end of the trading range moves up to $290.00. Prices begin by testing key support from $299.00-$301.00. It could hold, but a break of $300.00 opens the door to test $295.00. Prices will begin on the 100-day moving average of $300.00, and it could hold for the day. Since the market did close on its lows, if the line is broken could be at the start of the day.
first support: $300.50/$301.00
resistance: $305.00
possible range: much the same or lower
December Soyoil: Price action is positive with an old gap-fill at 2964c. A lower open may find prices accelerating to the downside once again, but lower support at 2915c/2920c should provide support. Major trend is sideways/higher, and think the market can find its way towards 30c/3050c.
first support: 2915c/2920c
resistance: 2955c
possible range: much the same or higher
December Corn: Double highs at $3.63 mark key resistance and lower support is located at $3.42/$3.45. Would look for the lower end of the trading range to have moved up to $3.35 /$3.40 for now.
first support: $3.43/$3.45
resistance: $3.52
possible range: much the same or higher
September Wheat: Prices are building in congestion just under the $5.00 level, which is often constructive for wheat. Multiple lows at $4.81 are noted as key support, while $5.12 is the top of this market. Would look for higher trade with good support also moving up to $4.85 should we go there.
first support: $4.92
resistance: $5.00/$5.02
possible range: much the same or higher
DECEMBER MEAL
Overall trading range has moved up from lows of $287.50/$299.00 to $295.00/$309.00. The up-trend is still rather weak, and funds are just covering their shorts rather than an influx of new longs. However, the lower end of the trading range has moved higher, and the market is attempting to determine that this week. Think that we are probably headed into a $295.00 - $310.00 trading range, but any break of the 100-day moving average would be negative.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America