SPREADS
Sep. crush trades at 77.44c/bu while oilshare weakens to 32.43%. Sep/Dec corn trades from 9c to 9 3/4c. Sep/Dec wheat narrows into 6 1/4c from 7 1/2c. Sep wheat/corn trades 1.52 1/2c. July/Dec corn trades from 10 3/4c to 11 3/4c, while July/Sep corn trades from 1 3/4 from 3c. July/Nov bean spread trades at a 3 3/4c inverse down to 1 3/4c. Jly/August inverse trades from 7c inverse to 5c.
PALM OIL
Sep. up 33 ringgits. SGS forecast June Malaysian palm oil exports at 1.510 mmt, up 21.1% vs. 1.246 mmt est. for May
NEWS
Stocks are down 80 pts as crude oil trades higher to $40.58/barrel. The US dollar trades to 97.62.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 5-7 higher
meal: 2.80-3.20 higher
soyoil: 5-10 higher
corn: 6 1/2-7 1/2 higher
wheat: 3 1/2-4 1/2 higher
canola: 2.50-$2.60 higher
TECHNICALS
September Corn: Futures traded to new high at $3.48 3/4, which could eventually target $3.55/$3.60. The major trend is now higher from lower, and would look for a pullback towards the $3.38-$3.41 level to hold for further strength. In strong markets, first support levels typically hold for higher trade.
first support: $3.42/$3.43
resistance: $3.49/$3.53
possible range; much the same
September Wheat: Prices are consolidating from $4.71-$4.99, with any trade over $5.00 sparking further short-covering activity. If short, would look for a pullback to own as there is little back congestion to stop an advance towards $5.12/$5.15 should prices trade over $4.99 today.
first support: 4.92/$4.93
resistance: $4.99/$5.03
possible range; much the same or lower
November Beans: Prices are now trading higher from lower though the trend overall remains weak. Good support on a break moves up to $8.80, but first support is now $8.84/$8.85. On a back and fill open, if prices hold $8.85 look to target trade over $8.90 towards $8.95/$9.03 gap-fill.
first support: $8.84 1/2/$8.85
resistance: $8.92/$8.95
possible range: much the same
December Meal: prices spiked from ctr lows of $287.50 to hit a trading range peak high at $299.80 this morning. On a good close would look for prices to test $301.00 before finding some resistance. When the short-covering dries up, this market could also find lower prices.
first support: $298.00
resistance: $300.00/$301.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Prices are sideways as opposed to higher but will likely find support at the lows of 2860c should we go there. Would look for a test of 2920c to 2930c at some point, and for prices to work back over 29c at the open. Overall trading range is from 28c - 2950c.
first support: 2870c
resistance: 2920c/2930c
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER CORN
Bottom of the market was $3.22 before the report, but prices may have a difficult time getting back there given the June report and straight up advance from these lows. The previous tops at $3.45/$3.48 now turn into support as prices climb to new trading range highs of $3.58. The move over the 100 day moving average at $3.54 to new highs at $3.58 is significant in that it shows a bit of panic buying to get out of the market as prices adjust its trading range upward. The target high now is $3.60, but trade over this level targets $3.70. For the market to relax a bit prices need to move back below the 100 day moving average of $3.55, but all in all the trading range lows have moved up appreciably from $3.22 to $3.35/$3.40. The strong price action and good close suggests further strength after the open. Overall trading range could be $3.30-$3.60 or slightly higher.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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