World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Rebound

SPREADS

March crush trades to 72c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.45%.   The corn inverses strengthened to new highs, with July/Dec trading up to 81 1/4c from 74c, and May/July into a new contract high at 5 3/4c from 4 1/2c.   March/May wheat trades from 1/4c to 3/4c carry.  March wheat/corn trades from 1.28 1/2c to 1.36 1/4c.   July/Nov beans trades from 1.95 3/4c up to 2.06 1/4c.  

PALM OIL

April palm oil closed 23 ringgits higher at 3,265.

NEWS

Stocks are 78 pts higher while crude oil trades up to $52.29/barrel.  US home prices rose at the fastest pace in more than six years fueled by demand for more living space as Americans remain closer to home during the pandemic.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  18-20 higher

meal:  4.00-4.60 higher

soyoil:  60-70 higher

corn:  9 1/2-10 1/2 higher

wheat:  4 1/2-5 1/2 higher

canola:  18.00-20.00 higher

BUSINESS

USDA reports 102,800 mt of corn sold to unknown for 20/21

USDA reports 1,360,000 mt of corn sold to China for 20/21

TECHNICALS

March Beans:  The main direction is higher with a still strong uptrend intact.  The market probed under $13.00, but there was no follow-through and the ability to put in a strong bounce off the lows keeps the upside intact.  Look for the likely chance that prices trend higher still and test $14.00 again.   The direction higher from a lower start to the night is constructive, and look for a pullback to hold for higher prices still.  We closed on a firm note, so look for $13.65/$13.70 to likely be tested minimally.

key support on a pullback:  $13.45/$13.48

resistance:  $13.63/$13.68

possible range: much the same

March Meal:  The main direction has been higher, and prices turned higher from lower to start the session.  The recovery here has been less than in the other markets, but a pullback towards $430.00 is likely to hold for a further rally back towards $450.00 in a $420.00-$470.00 trading range.  Look for prices to at least test the middle of the range at $440.00 at some point.  IF needing top price, good pullbacks are pricing or short-covering opportunities.

first support: $430.00

resistance:  $435.00/$438.00

possible range: $432.00 -$438.00 or higher

March Soyoil:  The market is in a 42c-4469c trading range.  The chart is constructive and pullbacks should be owned for a possible run at the 44c level or higher.  For the day would look for a pullback to 4340c to find support, as it has been a high and low point in this 42c-44c trading range.  Funds are long and key long term trendline support was never violated.

first support: 4340c

resistance:  4390c/4415c

possible range: much the same

March Corn:  This market is attempting to establish a wide range from a contract high at $5.41 1/2 down to the lows of $4.92 1/2, clearly a buying opportunity given the comeback.  Visual trendline resistance is now located at $5.25, and think it may give the market a moment of pause.  However, any move past $5.25/$5.28 is going to trigger more buying activity, and a move quickly back towards the contract highs now established.  Given the ability to bounce off $5.00, would cover a short or own a pullback to $5.15 should we go there.  

first support: $5.17/$5.19

resistance:  $5.25/$5.28

possible range: much the same

March Wheat:  The market is setting up a side trading range with support once again returning to $6.30, and overhead resistance close by at $6.65.  Would look to own pullbacks as this market appears to be a follower of the others.  There is not much to stop a market advance towards $6.75 once prices can clear $6.60.  For the day, first support moves up to $6.45, and it could hold for higher trade.

first support: $6.45

resistance:  $6.55/$6.65

possible range: much the same

MARCH BEANS

Triple tops at $14.36 1/2 marks the top end of the trading range, with one of the deepest corrections noted since the start of the rally.    Since weaker markets don't bounce, would have to say the bounce indicated that trading ranges are here with a likely hold of the $13.00 level as a "value" trade.  Should we go back down there, would be covering a short, pricing, or trying the long side in lieu of a still strong ADX trend at 49, which is lower than in recent days, but still showing a strong uptrend.  This market remains well bid, so would look for pullbacks towards $13.50 to hold for a bounce into the $14.00 or higher level again.

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