SPREADS
Sep. crush trades to 81.28c/bu after falling under 80c/bu yesterday. Sep. oilshare bounces back to trade to 33.09%. Bean bullspreads remain strong with July/August still at an inverse of 2 1/2c. July/Nov trades into 1/2c from 3 1/4c. July/Dec meal narrows into $6.40 from $7.00.
PALM OIL
Sep. up 21 ringgits. Malaysia cash offers for July delivered RBD palm oil and olein were unchanged at $632.50/mt and $635.00/mt, respectively.
NEWS
Crude oil stabilizes further, trading back over $40/barrel to $41.63/barrel high. The US dollar falls to 96.57. Stocks up are 280 pts.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 2-4 lower
meal: .20-.30 higher
soyoil: 5- 8 lower
corn: 3 1/2-4 lower
wheat: 1 1/2-2 lower
canola: .30-.50 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 132,000 mt of beans sold to China for 20/21.
TECHNICALS
Sep Wheat: Futures congest from $8.81-$8.90 at the bottom of a steep drop, and remain slightly oversold at 33%. Trade back over $4.90 would trigger an upside retracement, and get the feeling that the chart is beginning to head into a $4.80-$5.15 trading range. If short and we trade over $4.91 would get something covered in or try the long side of the market.
first support; $4.83
resistance: $4.91/$4.92
possible range: much the same or higher
Sep. Corn: Major direction is sideways now from higher, though the ability to bounce break shows that this is still a trading range market. Resistance does move down to $3.32/$3.33 with the break under $3.30, while good support is still located at $3.23/$3.25.
lower support: $3.23
first support: $3.25
resistance: $3.30/$3.32
possible range: $3.27-$3.32 or lower
Nov Beans: Prices remain in a sideways chop from $8.65-$8.85. Support returns to $8.70 again with the market recovery off the lows and bounce, but would continue to own setbacks in this market for a potential higher trade over $8.85.
first support: $8.72
resistance: $8.82/$8.83
possible range: much the same
July Soyoil: Prices broke to key support which today crosses at 2780c-2790c. Would look to own a pullback towards 28c should we get there, as the main direction is still higher, and prices could still test previous highs which are closer to 2870c.
key support: 2780c-2790c
resistance: 2845c
possible range: much the same
July Meal: Prices remain in a sideways chop from $282.00-$295.00. The market has resistance at the 50 day moving average of 289.00, but prices could easily go there on short-covering. Funds remain net short around 40K meal. Trendline support for the day crosses at $285.00. Think we stay between $285.00-$290.00 for further congestive price activity.
trendline support: $285.00
resistance: $289.00
possible range; much the same
NOVEMBER BEANS
Prices remain rangebound from $8.65-$8.85, with the mid-point of $8.72/$8.73 a swing point. The trend is exceptionally weak with an ADX reading of 17, (anything under 25 shows lack of trend), and it has been a trapped range. Good support is still beneath $8.65 on a break of size, with the 50-day moving average crossing at the same point of trendline which is $8.58. Additionally, prices moved back over the 20 day moving average of $8.70 which indicates that there is buying or short-covering interest on breaks. All in all the ability of the market to bounce is more constructive than not, and any beak-out over $8.85 would trigger more buying activity and possible gap-closure at $9.03.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America