World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Sideways Congestion

SPREADS

Sep. crush trades to 81.28c/bu after falling under 80c/bu yesterday.  Sep. oilshare bounces back to trade to 33.09%.   Bean bullspreads remain strong with July/August still at an inverse of 2 1/2c.  July/Nov trades into 1/2c from 3 1/4c.  July/Dec meal narrows into $6.40 from $7.00. 

PALM OIL

Sep. up 21 ringgits.  Malaysia cash offers for July delivered RBD palm oil and olein were unchanged at $632.50/mt and $635.00/mt, respectively.

NEWS

Crude oil stabilizes further, trading back over $40/barrel to $41.63/barrel high.  The US dollar falls to 96.57.  Stocks up are 280 pts.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  2-4 lower

meal:  .20-.30 higher

soyoil:  5- 8 lower

corn:  3 1/2-4 lower

wheat:  1 1/2-2 lower

canola:  .30-.50 higher

BUSINESS

USDA reports 132,000 mt of beans sold to China for 20/21.  

TECHNICALS

Sep Wheat:  Futures congest from $8.81-$8.90 at the bottom of a steep drop, and remain slightly oversold at 33%.  Trade back over $4.90 would trigger an upside retracement, and get the feeling that the chart is beginning to head into a $4.80-$5.15 trading range.  If short and we trade over $4.91 would get something covered in or try the long side of the market.

first support; $4.83

resistance:  $4.91/$4.92

possible range: much the same or higher

Sep. Corn: Major direction is sideways now from higher, though the ability to bounce break shows that this is still a trading range market.  Resistance does move down to $3.32/$3.33 with the break under $3.30, while good support is still located at $3.23/$3.25.  

lower support: $3.23

first support: $3.25

resistance: $3.30/$3.32

possible range: $3.27-$3.32 or lower

Nov Beans:  Prices remain in a sideways chop from $8.65-$8.85.  Support returns to $8.70 again with the market recovery off the lows and bounce, but would continue to own setbacks in this market for a potential higher trade over $8.85.  

first support: $8.72

resistance: $8.82/$8.83

possible range: much the same 

July Soyoil:  Prices broke to key support which today crosses at 2780c-2790c.  Would look to own a pullback towards 28c should we get there, as the main direction is still higher, and prices could still test previous highs which are closer to 2870c.  

key support:  2780c-2790c

resistance:  2845c

possible range: much the same 

July Meal:  Prices remain in a sideways chop from $282.00-$295.00.  The market has resistance at the 50 day moving average of 289.00, but prices could easily go there on short-covering.  Funds remain net short around 40K meal.  Trendline support for the day crosses at $285.00.   Think we stay between $285.00-$290.00 for further congestive price activity.

trendline support: $285.00

resistance:  $289.00

possible range; much the same

NOVEMBER BEANS

Prices remain rangebound from $8.65-$8.85, with the mid-point of $8.72/$8.73 a swing point.  The trend is exceptionally weak with an ADX reading of 17, (anything under 25 shows lack of trend), and it has been a trapped range.  Good support is still beneath $8.65 on a break of size, with the 50-day moving average crossing at the same point of trendline which is $8.58.  Additionally, prices moved back over the 20 day moving average of $8.70 which indicates that there is buying or short-covering interest on breaks.  All in all the ability of the market to bounce is more constructive than not, and any beak-out over $8.85 would trigger more buying activity and possible gap-closure at $9.03.  

WPI on Twitter

Related Articles
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not

Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...

livestock

Forecast Cow-Calf Profits Near Record, Robust Heifer Retention Expected

Cow-calf producer margins are discussed less frequently in these pages than their downstream counterparts of feedlot and beef packer margins, but this doesn’t mean they are less important to understanding the beef industry’s current state and outlook. Additionally, discussion of thi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Thank you...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not

Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...

livestock

Forecast Cow-Calf Profits Near Record, Robust Heifer Retention Expected

Cow-calf producer margins are discussed less frequently in these pages than their downstream counterparts of feedlot and beef packer margins, but this doesn’t mean they are less important to understanding the beef industry’s current state and outlook. Additionally, discussion of thi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Thank you...

Reigniting a Transatlantic Deal; Indian Powerhouse; “Barons” is Bombastic

Reigniting a Transatlantic Deal  Former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta is something of a policy rock star after authoring a report on the future strategy for the EU. Most of the 146-page report focuses on strengthening the EU’s internal Single Market but, buried at the end of th...

Image
From WPI Consulting

Accountability and a comprehensive approach to export programming

WPI’s team helped construct a strategic approach to develop, implement, and track promotional activities in 8 key regions across the globe for an agricultural export association. With continued progress measurement and strategic advisory services from WPI, the association has seen its ROI from investments in promotional programming increase by 44 percent over the past 5 years. Not only does this type of holistic approach to organizational strategy provide measurable results to track and analyze, it fosters top-down and bottom-up organizational accountability.

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up