SPREADS
March crush trades to 1.03c/bu while oilshare moves to 33.85%. March/May beans trades into contract lows of 15 1/2c, which is 66% of fully carry. Dec/March corn trades into 8c vs. 8 1/2c while March/May corn trades from 4 1/4c to 4 3/4c. March/May meal trades from $3.80 to $3.90. March wheat/corn trades from 1.55c to 1.57c.
PALM OIL
Feb up 15 ringgits and cash up $7.50. Indonesia's Trade Ministry said they would keep their crude palm oil export tax unchanged at zero percent for December.
NEWS
The Dow is off 180 pts on ideas that the trade war phase one deal will see a market setback. Crude trades to $55.35/barrel, with the US dollar weaker at 97.74.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 1 1/2-2 higher
meal: .80-1.00 higher
soyoil: 4-8 higher
corn: 1/2-1 lower
wheat: 2 1/2-3 higher
canola: 2.50-2.60 higher
TECHNICALS
Jan Beans: Cycling down with new lows at $8.67 1/2, which is close to bottoms of $8.65. We may start higher but would also think that prices could re-test our range lows, as there is not yet a good reversal signal. Oversold extremes are now in place, however, which suggests that a dip to $8.65 may see support should we go there, as relative strength indexes at 18% typically suggests a corrective reversal would be on the horizon.
first support: $8.64 1/2-$8.66
resistance: $8.75/$8.80
possible range: much the same or higher
Jan Meal: Major direction is lower and the market placed a new contract low at $292.60. Double lows now mark the lowest level, but think at some point the market heads up to $300.00, and then eventually back towards $305.00. Could see a potential $290.00-$305.00 trading range.
first support: $293.00
resistance: $297.00
possible range: much the same
Jan Soyoil: Major direction is lower as the chart still tries to find a bottom from the highs of 3217c. Price action starts slightly higher, but if we see more liquidation than a dip towards trendline would find the market closer to 30. Trendline support today is at 3010c, with the 100-day moving average crossing at 2990c. If short and we go there, would be taking something off the table as price action up to now has been positive. The confirmed topping pattern still implies, however, that the longs are going to be put to the test.
first support: 3010c
resistance: 3050c
possible range: much the same or lower
March Corn: Overall trading range has turned sideways from lower. Good resistance is located from $3.85/$3.88, and the market will begin the day on support at $3.79-$3.80. If prices break $3.79 would look to trend down to $3.75 once again, but shorts may be looking to lighten up if we go there.
key support: $3.79-$3.80
resistance: $3.85/$3.86
possible range; much the same or lower
March Wheat: Prices continue higher, bouncing off key support at $5.35 to close the session in higher territory. Would look for the possibility that we test recent highs, but at that point would probably be looking to light up on length, as the top of the market appears to be $5.54, and overdone to the upside should we go there.
first support: $5.35
trendline resistance: $5.46
possible range: much the same
MARCH WHEAT
Overall trading range is from $5.10-$5.45, with the major direction higher. So far there is not a good reversal signal to imply that the up-move is over. However, trendline resistance today does cross at $5.48, just above recent highs, with $5.54 as the highest potential on another run upward. On a higher start, would look for the possibility that we move towards $5.45 again but would probably lighten up on length should we go there. There is a strong sell signal seasonal at the end of December.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America