SPREADS
March crush trades to 1.00c/bu while oilshare trades down to 33.55%. Jan/March beans remains weak trading out to 14 1/2c from 14 1/4c. Jan/March meal trades from $2.80 out to $3.00. March wheat/corn trades from 1.52 1/4c to 1.53c. Dec/March wheat narrows into 3/4c from 1 3/4c. Dec/March corn trades from 10c to 10 1/4c. March/May corn trades into 5 1/2c from 5 3/4c. Spread trades continues to consume the largest volumes for corn, with 72,859 ctrs of open interest coming out of Dec yesterday while March corn picks up 39.530 ctrs. March corn open interest now stands at 714,340 ctrs with July coming in second place at 220,849 contracts. Jan. bean open interest stands at 323,872 contracts with March at 190,526 contracts.
PALM OIL
Feb crude down 59 ringgits with cash offers $10.00 lower. Chinese soyoil values were sharply lower as well on profit-taking.
NEWS
Stocks continue to perform to the upside, tacking on 19 pts in the night session. Crude oil trades to $58.42/barrel, while the US dollar trades off to 98.25. The Brazilian Real falls to an all-time low this AM, which is contributing to bean weakness, as it creates more farmer selling.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 1 1/2-2 lower
meal: .20-.30 lower
soyoil: 20-25 lower
corn: 1 1/2-2 lower
wheat: 3 1/2-4 1/2 lower
canola: 2.00 lower
TECHNICALS
Jan Beans: New lows beget new lows and resistance moves down to $9.02 while the market tries to find a bottom. The market is also oversold at 29%, (anything under 30% heads into official oversold status), but those percentages can drive into deeper losses before a rally occurs. Would now look for prices to target $8.85-$8.90 before a better round of short-covering activity hits this chart.
first support: $8.89/ $8.90
resistance: $8.95/$8.98
possible range: $8.89-$8.98 or lower
Jan Meal: Prices sliding into the lowest level of key support with double lows at $300.50 tested once again. Continuing to trade into new previous support levels eventually weakens that support and results in lower price action. Any trade under $300.00 has little support to stop a slide towards $295.00 should we go there.
key support: $300.00
resistance: $303.00
possible range: $299.00-$302.00 or lower
Jan Soyoil: Chart top has formed driving prices through the major support level of 3050c. Lower target ideas rests at 30c, with sell-stops under this level resulting in a test of crossing moving averages from 2970c-2980c where the market could find support. If short and the market moves back over 31c would have to get out and go long as we would enter the previous trading range.
first support: 30c to 3015c
resistance: 3050c
possible range: much the same
March Corn: Prices are sideways from $3.77 to $3.83 but would begin to cover a short position on a break as it seem the downside momentum has been momentarily lost. Good support on a break is still located at $3.75/$3.76, and top of the trading range is now located at $3.84/$3.86.
first support: $3.77
resistance: $3.81
possible range: much the same
March Wheat: Prices are trending higher with a vertical advance when tops were cleared over $5.22. Good support now moves up to $5.18/$5.22 on a break while overhead resistance is located at $5.35/$5.37.
first support: $5.22/$5.25
resistance: $5.32
possible range: much the same or lower
JANUARY BEANS
Prices are trending lower with best support under the market crossing at $8.89/$8.90. Would look for the possibility that prices trade down to $8.83/$8.85 where we could find a market rebound from oversold ideas and levels that would be more value. We are slowly working into an $8.85 to $8.90 range on the bottom with a $9.15/$9.20 high. The 100- and 200-day moving average crosses overhead at $9.11/$9.16, now to be considered the top of the trading range with prices still having to verify new lows.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America