SPREADS
March crush falls further to 62c/bu, while oilshare weakens to 30.98%. July/Dec corn inverse falls to 67 1/2c from 75c, while March/May trades from 2 1/4c to 3c carry. March/May wheat trades from 3/4c to 1c carry. March wheat/corn trades from 1.50c to 1.58c, and closes at 1.55 1/4c. Jul/Nov bean trades from 1.83 1/4c up to 2.07c. March/May beans trades from 7 1/2c inverse down to 1 3/4c. March/May meal trades from a $5.20 inverse down to $3.70.
PALM OIL
April down 77 ringgits. Palm oil fell 2%, closing at its lowest level in nearly 2 months on worries over weakening exports. Palm oil exports are reported to be off by around 40% month - to - date following the increase in export tax from zero back to 8% at the start of the new year.
NEWS
Stocks are up 190 pts with crude oil trading up to $52.78/barrel, and the US dollar down to 90.42.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
bean: 19-22 lower
meal: 6.00-6.50 lower
soyoil: 60-70 lower
corn: 1 lower
wheat: 8-9 higher
canola: 2.50-2.70 lower
BUSINESS
USDA reports 128,000 mt of corn sold to Japan for 20/21.
TECHNICALS
March Beans: The market is attempting to define a trading range, and for the time being key support is located at $13.85, which could be tested shortly after the open. Would look for sell-stops to be triggered on any move under $13.85 which suggests a trip to $13.70. Would look for an immediate test of $13.90 after the open, and if that holds prices could begin to head back over $14.00 for a consolidation phase. If needing to price something, this break is a good opportunity.
first support: $13.89-$13.90
resistance: $14.03/$14.05
possible range: much the same or lower
March Meal: The market is now working into a trading range from the overall highs of $471.00. Lower support has moved up to $450.00, which may be tested shortly after the open. If needing to price something, the $450.00 level is a good starting place.
first support: $454.00-$455.00
resistance: $461.00-$462.00
possible range: much the same
March Soyoil: Extremely weak behavior as small rallies are now taken as selling opportunities. Major trendline support is located at 41c, but the weaker close suggests that we may test it at the start of the day. Would look for any trade under 41c to find prices quickly trading 50 pts lower to 4050c-4080c.
first support: 4090c-41c
resistance: 4150c
possible range: much the same or lower
March Corn: The market could be moving into a $5.20-$5.41 trading range, and prices appear ready to test $5.25 once again. Would look for a pullback towards $5.22-$5.25 as key first support, and if needing to price would get something on the books here. The open gap from $5.17-$5.19 is also a major support level, and would exercise patience if needing to price on a close under gap-fill. The chart still shows a strong uptrend, with the possibility of a $5.10-$5.40 or higher trading range.
first support: $5.22/$5.23
resistance: $5.31/$5.33
possible range: much the same
March Wheat: The market placed a new contract high at $6.93, and the high of $6.91 could be the start of upper resistance. However, the market has a bid to it this AM, and it will take extreme weakness in the other markets to pull wheat lower. The lower end of the trading range has moved up to $6.50, and key support for the day is $6.75. If we go there, would cover a short or try the long side of the market.
first support: $6.75
resistance: $6.90-$6.95
possible range: $6.80-$6.95 or lower
MARCH CORN
The mission of the market is to establish a trading range with a gap still open under the market from $5.17-$5.19, and the bottom of the market moving up to $5.00. The ADX still denotes a strong uptrend, so would continue to own or price on good pullbacks. A top would likely come from a close under $5.00-$5.05. Until then, higher prices could still be achieved. Though prices may back and fill towards the open gap, it may still be difficult to close it. Look for a temporary $5.20-$5.40 trading range to develop, or higher.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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