SPREADS
August crush trades lower, down to 80.46c/bu, while oilshare trends down to 32.41%. Spreads are firmer with Jul/Dec corn narrowing into 13 1/4c from 14c, and Julyl/Sep trading from 4c to 4 1/4c. July/Nov beans trades from 8 1/2c to 9 1/4c, while Jul/Dec meal trades from $8.20 to $9.20. July wheat/corn trades from 1.88c to 1.92 3/4c.
PALM OIL
Down 69 ringgits with cash offers down 12.50/mt to $580.00/mt and $582.50/mt respectively.
NEWS
Stocks are now lower trading down 40 pts with energies trading down to $36.38/barrel, and the US dollar firming to 97.97.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 2 1/2-3 higher
meal: 1.20-1.50 higher
soyoil: 25-30 lower
corn: 1 -1 1/2 higher
wheat: 5 1/2-6 1/2 higher
canola: .90-1.20 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 120,000 mt of beans sold to unknown.
TECHNICALS
July Corn: Prices remain sideways to higher in an uptrend channel, with very good support now moving up to $3.20 and prices moving into test the 50 day moving average at $3.26. For now, the path of least resistance seems to be higher, and a move over $3.27 would trigger more fund short-covering and trade back towards $3.30, recent highs. If short, would probably elect to get something covered on a market pullback.
first support: $3.23
resistance: $3.27
possible range: much the same or higher
July Wheat: Prices are potentially making a market bottom here, with a break to $5.05 holding for a bounce higher back towards $5.20. Major trendline resistance for the day crosses at $5.22, and would look to test it. Any close above $5.25 is going to trigger more fund buying and fuel a rally towards crossing moving averages of $5.29 at the very least, but could be the trigger to a much larger rally.
first support: $5.13
resistance: $5.22
possible range: much the same or higher
July Beans: Prices stage a rally into key resistance which is located at $8.62. Support now moves up to $8.52 and would look for the good close to support more short-covering or buying. Target high on a trade over $8.62 is $8.70, but the slow move up also probably finds a stopping point at $8.65.
first support: $8.56
resistance: $8.62/$8.65
possible range: much the same or lower
July Meal: The chart is beginning to offer a "v" shaped recovery with multiple lows at $282.00-$283.00, and prices trading over the 20-day moving average at $284.00. The chart suggests that price improvement is probable, and a trade over $288.00 confirms. Think prices can work into a $281.80 - $299.00 trading range.
first support: $284.50 - $285.00
resistance: $288.00
possible range; much the same or higher
July Soyoil: Prices hit a high side target at 2820c but breaks back to possibly test the 27c level once again. Would still look for pullbacks in this market to see support, and possibly fill an old gap at 2890c. For the day, prices closed near the lows which promises a further setback. Look for another 20-30 pt break, but prices to eventually hold close to 27c.
first support: 2720c-2730c
resistance: 2780c
possible range; much the same
NOVEMBER BEANS
The market was in a previous $8.35-$8.65 trading range but buying was triggered when prices moved past $8.65 yesterday. Upper trendline resistance crosses today at $8.75, and becomes an upper target. If long, would probably take a partial profit if we go there, and with prices over the 20-and 50-day moving averages expect to see continued support on pullbacks. The chart suggests that prices could work into a trading range slightly higher than a few weeks ago, from $8.55 to a possible $8.75/$8.80 trade. Working against a more enthusiastic push in the ADX, currently at a very weak reading of 14, meaning prices could struggle to maintain higher trade. the uptrend would strengthen on a close over $8.80.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America