SPREADS

Sep crush is firmer at 98c/bu while oilshare firms back over 30% to trade to 31.10% as meal dips against a firmer soyoil market.  Corn spreads are slightly weaker with Dec/March trading from 7 1/4c to 7 3/4c.  Dec/Dec inverse falls from a 21 3/4c high to 15c.  Sep/Dec meal trades into $4.40 to $4.60.  Sep/Nov beans trade from 11 3/4c to 12 1/4c.  

PALM OIL - August down 6 ringgits

NEWS

The Dow is off 92 pts this morning with what appears to be a risk off day of trade.  Crude is lower at $56.42/barrel against a firmer US dollar at 97.26.

REPORTS

Export sales:

• Beans: 18/19 net 127,890 and 19/20 net 198,367 tmt   (vs. an expected 100-700 low end)
• Meal:  18/19 net 65,287 tmt and 19/20 net 149,500 tmt  (vs. an expected 50-275 low end)
• Soyoil: 18/19 net 12,193 tmt and 19/20 net 1,535 (vs. an expected 0-40  poor)
• Corn:    18/19 net 200,009 tmt and 19/20 net 132,997 tmt  (vs. an expected 350-750 poor)
• Wheat:  19/20 net 327,290 tmt  (vs. an expected 200-400 moderate)

Sales were low end for everything but wheat.

WEATHER

Rains are moving across the Dakotas, Parts of Iowa and Minnesota.   Traders are focused on a potential cooler weather pattern next week that will bring some relief to crops.  

ANNOUNCEMENTS

FC Stone raised the Brazilian safrinha corn crop by 1.5 mmt to 71.7 mmt, bringing the total corn crop to 99.7 mmt.  

Calls today begin lower across the board:

beans:  4-6 lower

meal:  1.00-1.40 lower

soyoil: 3-5 lower

corn:   7-8 lower

wheat:  5-7 lower

canola:  1.50-1.70 lower

TECHNICALS

Nov Beans:  Watching a potential top in place, with prices opening on key support this morning at $8.95.  Violation of this support suggests that the market could move down towards $8.85/$8.90 or lower.  Because we begin at trading range lows and on key support, this is a fairly important day as it suggests a break down would take us out of our previous trading range.  

key support: $8.92/$8.95

resistance:  $9.02/$9.05

possible range: much the same or lower

Dec Meal:  Overall trading range has been from $310.00-$325.00.  However, this morning we are set up to test $310.00 once again.  If the gap remains open from $309.00/$310.00, it keeps the trading range in play from $310.00-$325.00.

first support: $310.00

resistance:  $313.80

possible range; much the same

Dec Soyoil:  Prices reached a previous low which was 2797c, and for the day this is key support.  The chart has been a congestive 28c-29c trade, so any close under 28c would suggest we could go another 50 pts lower.   For the day, we are going to see if 28c holds for further sideways trade.

first support;  2795c to 28c

resistance:  2835c to 2840c

possible range: much the same or lower

Dec Corn:  Trading range with the major direction still sideways.  This pattern presents less toppy than the others, as the lack of symmetry suggests that wide trading ranges remain.  The market is going to test $4.30 once again, and sell-stops will probably be triggered underneath this level.  Resistance is lowered to $4.45 as prices congest at the lower end of this trading range.

first support:  $4.30

resistance:  $4.38/$4.39

possible range; much the same or lower

Sep Wheat:  Trading range activity with the best support from $4.95 to $5.00.  The formation could be a top, but would wait to see if we can settle under $4.85 before selling this market outright. Overall trading range is from $5.00 - $5.40, and this is a very important day as to whether we remain in current trading ranges or notch values lower.

key support: $4.85-$4.90

resistance:  $5.10 $5.12

possible range: much the same 

NOVEMBER BEANS:  Trading range is from $8.90 - $9.48, and the ADX is weak at 20 (anything under 25 is weak trend), meaning the market stops short at both ends of the spectrum. However, a topping pattern is in place that would be confirmed with a close under $8.90.  The red horizontal line on the chart is suggestive of a $8.65/$8.75 potential lower trade.  If long, need the market to hold above $8.90.

TAGS – Feed Grains, Wheat, Soy & Oilseeds, North America