Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 April 2024 The government has realized that taxing exportable wheat and barley at a high rate was not a good idea, especially with wheat stocks pushing the roof. Possibly the news about softer duties will improve prices for small grains. Corn duty is symbolic an...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 March 2024 Last week, the Russian domestic grain market was volatile. Most of the grains were recovering following global trends and demand in the export zone of Russia. However, even with zero duty which lasted only one week, feed corn continued losing ground...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Market Commentary: Acreage Outlooks Weaken Corn, Soy; Wheat Gains on Firmer Russian Offers
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower heading into Thursday’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports from the USDA, but wheat futures managed to find midday support and settle higher. Wheat’s strength came from another week of cautious gains in Russian FOB offers, which is seen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 March 2024 The Russian domestic grain market saw depreciation of milling wheat and a slight depreciation of feed wheat, while feed corn also started to appreciate - most probably because of softer export duties. For the upcoming week, exports of feed corn from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports
The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish in the south and Volga valley. However, export prices did not react immediately despite a decreased export duty and weaker RUB. In fact, a weaker RUB is better for Russian grain exports which are at hi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Peas Please
As noted in today’s Black Sea report, the price of peas in Russia are rising as exports go unfettered by any export tax. Canada is by far the largest exporter of peas with a two-thirds market share. But Russia is second with a 12.4 percent market share, the U.S. exports about 9 percent of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...
Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position
Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...
Policy Quick Hits
Appropriations Deadline The initial deadline for avoiding a government shutdown is one week from today, 1 March. By that time, Congress needs to pass four appropriations bills, including the agriculture appropriations, as well as the energy and water, military construction and transportat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise
Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat markets remain under pressure as Western Europe and Black Sea exports battle each other and the American markets for export demand. Paris Matif futures were sharply lower last week and scored new contract lows and a post-WASDE rally on Friday brought additional selling...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago, the Russian Statistics Agency had already reported 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Done...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The wheat crop alone accounted for 92.8 MMT which is the sec...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Crush; Grains Dip on Slack Exports
The CBOT was mixed to start the last full trading week of 2023 with the soy complex rallying on the heels of last week’s NOPA crush report. The report featured the second-largest U.S. soybean crush in history, which helped push the soy complex higher for the day. Exports were a weight on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 April 2024 The government has realized that taxing exportable wheat and barley at a high rate was not a good idea, especially with wheat stocks pushing the roof. Possibly the news about softer duties will improve prices for small grains. Corn duty is symbolic an...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 March 2024 Last week, the Russian domestic grain market was volatile. Most of the grains were recovering following global trends and demand in the export zone of Russia. However, even with zero duty which lasted only one week, feed corn continued losing ground...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Market Commentary: Acreage Outlooks Weaken Corn, Soy; Wheat Gains on Firmer Russian Offers
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower heading into Thursday’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports from the USDA, but wheat futures managed to find midday support and settle higher. Wheat’s strength came from another week of cautious gains in Russian FOB offers, which is seen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 March 2024 The Russian domestic grain market saw depreciation of milling wheat and a slight depreciation of feed wheat, while feed corn also started to appreciate - most probably because of softer export duties. For the upcoming week, exports of feed corn from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports
The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish in the south and Volga valley. However, export prices did not react immediately despite a decreased export duty and weaker RUB. In fact, a weaker RUB is better for Russian grain exports which are at hi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Peas Please
As noted in today’s Black Sea report, the price of peas in Russia are rising as exports go unfettered by any export tax. Canada is by far the largest exporter of peas with a two-thirds market share. But Russia is second with a 12.4 percent market share, the U.S. exports about 9 percent of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...
Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position
Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...
Policy Quick Hits
Appropriations Deadline The initial deadline for avoiding a government shutdown is one week from today, 1 March. By that time, Congress needs to pass four appropriations bills, including the agriculture appropriations, as well as the energy and water, military construction and transportat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise
Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat markets remain under pressure as Western Europe and Black Sea exports battle each other and the American markets for export demand. Paris Matif futures were sharply lower last week and scored new contract lows and a post-WASDE rally on Friday brought additional selling...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago, the Russian Statistics Agency had already reported 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Done...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The wheat crop alone accounted for 92.8 MMT which is the sec...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Crush; Grains Dip on Slack Exports
The CBOT was mixed to start the last full trading week of 2023 with the soy complex rallying on the heels of last week’s NOPA crush report. The report featured the second-largest U.S. soybean crush in history, which helped push the soy complex higher for the day. Exports were a weight on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...