World Perspectives

Recent Russia Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Day of Regrets

Yesterday’s bump in the market was because USDA’s WASDE report was not as bearish as feared. Today’s jump is harder to explain - it seems miscalculated. Some say it was based on the prevented planting acres data, but the World Agricultural Outlook Board would have had those nu...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race; Grain Monopolization

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race A Nikkei survey of 145 Japanese company CEO’s found that a majority believe it will take at least two years to economically recover from the coronavirus. Basically, 38 percent said it will take two years and 17.8 percent said it will take even longer th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened lower overnight as USDA’s surprise increase in the good/excellent ratings for corn and soybeans pressured the market. Wheat followed corn lower, pressured by spillover selling as well as its own good harvest statistics. The increase in crop conditions ratings seemed to spa...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European and Black Sea markets are seemingly solely focused on the advancing wheat harvest as well as the early start of rapeseed/summer crop harvests. For most countries, wheat harvest is half-finished or better and yields have reflected earlier expectations. The only real...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT traded a mixed day to close the week with higher wheat futures the only pronounced development. Rising cash wheat values in Russia (up $1-5/MT depending on the region) helped Paris milling wheat move €2.25/MT higher over night and that supported CBOT wheat as well. Wheat/corn bull...

livestock

Building a Poultry Industry

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was in the news inspecting a new chicken farm and calling for improvements to an outdated poultry industry. Efficient poultry production involves processes and feed. The former may be easier than the latter given that country’s climate and geography, though...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 July 2020 Harvesting started in more regions, so the prices were mainly quoted for 2020 grain, and the general price development on the domestic market was negative (except for corn prices that slightly grew). Meanwhile, on the export market, milling wheat average 20...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with Friday’s WASDE confirming that, without a weather event in the Northern Hemisphere this summer, corn and soybean supplies will be ample. Additionally, good odds for precipitation across the U.S. Corn Belt as corn approaches peak pollination...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

wheat

Wheat Market Tightening

The wheat market is tightening as production cuts are hitting France, Russia and Ukraine, plus there has been an increase in tenders. Exports by France are expected to be 7.75 MMT, a 43 percent reduction from 2019/20. Meanwhile, Russia's IKAR reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop by 1...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2020 Harvesting was in progress and in the South and Volga Valley regions prices decreased. Yet, the decrease is not significant as the average yield so far has been lower than in 2019. For export market milling wheat, average 2020 yield price decreased to...

Pessimism Reigns

Global rules for liberalized trade such as the Uruguay Round depended upon strong U.S. leadership backed by the EU. The number of countercurrents to any return to that model are now overwhelming. China has mimicked the U.S. in using economic hostage taking to leverage more nativistic outcomes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Planting progressed 13 percent last week with 71 percent of the expected area now seeded thanks to dry weather. There are still some areas in northern and western Argentina that need moisture before the crop can be seeded.  Of what has been planted, most is rated normal or excellent...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CBOT markets started on a firm note with corn leading the way after yesterday afternoon’s surprising decline in corn conditions ratings. The ratings decline sparked short covering and unwinding of a historically large short corn/long soybean spread position. Wheat futures opened higher bu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a firm note with soybeans leading the way higher on export business news. Long soybeans/short wheat trade developed early in the day and lasted until wheat futures hit technical support and triggered buy orders. Corn trade saw some light short-covering and funds are thought t...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels.  World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks.   India’s c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that 3.1 MMT of local wheat have been purchased by the government. The targeted purchase level of 3.6 MMT is expected to be reached. Pakistan has removed the ban on the transportation of wheat between provinces and has tempor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened higher overnight with strength from Tuesday’s reversals carrying through into trade early on Wednesday. The markets turned lower, however, as concerns about worsening relations between the U.S. and China weighed on futures. The soy complex took the brunt of that concern an...

livestock

Let Them Have Meat

Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened with wheat leading the way higher, soybeans firming with support from soyoil and short covering in soymeal while corn established itself as the sell-side of spreads. Wheat futures rallied on concerns that Russian production may fall as well as short-covering and long hedges bein...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Estimates - U.S. wheat in 2020/21 will have reduced stocks.  The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year as lower yields offsett higher harvested acreage.  The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bus...

energy

Oil and Food

The price of petroleum has plummeted, putting countries that are highly dependent on its export earnings into deep fiscal trouble. This should hinder their amount of foreign exchange and thus food imports beyond basic necessity. However, looking at the recent history of U.S. food exports to the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 April 2020 Prices on the domestic grain market continued to grow. Meanwhile, on the export market milling wheat average price decreased to $229/MT FOB Black Sea. Purchase prices grew to RUB 15,700-15,800/MT. Feed barley average export price decreased to $181/MT FOB...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was higher overnight on short covering and what looked to be the start of a Turnaround Tuesday. The day session, however, featured aggressive fund selling in row crops that eliminated any hope for a turnaround. Wheat futures managed to find some support off yesterday’s Crop Condi...

energy feed-grains soy-oilseeds

The Wild and Crazy Crude Oil Market

Can commodities actually be worth less than $0.00? After Monday’s wild trade in the CME May Crude Oil futures contract, we guess they can. As anyone interested in the oil market knows, demand for crude oil and refined energy products have been declining for months. However, worldwide reac...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News The dryness across Europe is easing with showers falling across Spain, western France, and Eastern Europe last week. For most of Europe, the seven-day precipitation anomaly shows little deviation from normal levels. The 15-day anomaly, however, shows that European crops are still...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CBOT grains and livestock markets were mostly higher today with short covering the dominant theme in corn. Wheat futures sold off early in the day but found short covering support as well as some long buying interest in HRW futures while the soy complex was weaker for most of the day with soyme...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Weakness in soymeal and the soy complex was the major feature at the CBOT today. The soy complex is increasingly worried about the demand implications of the livestock sector’s imploding income statements, and that left soymeal to post new contract lows today. The weakness in meal pulled...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Day of Regrets

Yesterday’s bump in the market was because USDA’s WASDE report was not as bearish as feared. Today’s jump is harder to explain - it seems miscalculated. Some say it was based on the prevented planting acres data, but the World Agricultural Outlook Board would have had those nu...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race; Grain Monopolization

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race A Nikkei survey of 145 Japanese company CEO’s found that a majority believe it will take at least two years to economically recover from the coronavirus. Basically, 38 percent said it will take two years and 17.8 percent said it will take even longer th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened lower overnight as USDA’s surprise increase in the good/excellent ratings for corn and soybeans pressured the market. Wheat followed corn lower, pressured by spillover selling as well as its own good harvest statistics. The increase in crop conditions ratings seemed to spa...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European and Black Sea markets are seemingly solely focused on the advancing wheat harvest as well as the early start of rapeseed/summer crop harvests. For most countries, wheat harvest is half-finished or better and yields have reflected earlier expectations. The only real...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT traded a mixed day to close the week with higher wheat futures the only pronounced development. Rising cash wheat values in Russia (up $1-5/MT depending on the region) helped Paris milling wheat move €2.25/MT higher over night and that supported CBOT wheat as well. Wheat/corn bull...

livestock

Building a Poultry Industry

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was in the news inspecting a new chicken farm and calling for improvements to an outdated poultry industry. Efficient poultry production involves processes and feed. The former may be easier than the latter given that country’s climate and geography, though...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 July 2020 Harvesting started in more regions, so the prices were mainly quoted for 2020 grain, and the general price development on the domestic market was negative (except for corn prices that slightly grew). Meanwhile, on the export market, milling wheat average 20...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with Friday’s WASDE confirming that, without a weather event in the Northern Hemisphere this summer, corn and soybean supplies will be ample. Additionally, good odds for precipitation across the U.S. Corn Belt as corn approaches peak pollination...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

wheat

Wheat Market Tightening

The wheat market is tightening as production cuts are hitting France, Russia and Ukraine, plus there has been an increase in tenders. Exports by France are expected to be 7.75 MMT, a 43 percent reduction from 2019/20. Meanwhile, Russia's IKAR reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop by 1...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2020 Harvesting was in progress and in the South and Volga Valley regions prices decreased. Yet, the decrease is not significant as the average yield so far has been lower than in 2019. For export market milling wheat, average 2020 yield price decreased to...

Pessimism Reigns

Global rules for liberalized trade such as the Uruguay Round depended upon strong U.S. leadership backed by the EU. The number of countercurrents to any return to that model are now overwhelming. China has mimicked the U.S. in using economic hostage taking to leverage more nativistic outcomes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Planting progressed 13 percent last week with 71 percent of the expected area now seeded thanks to dry weather. There are still some areas in northern and western Argentina that need moisture before the crop can be seeded.  Of what has been planted, most is rated normal or excellent...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CBOT markets started on a firm note with corn leading the way after yesterday afternoon’s surprising decline in corn conditions ratings. The ratings decline sparked short covering and unwinding of a historically large short corn/long soybean spread position. Wheat futures opened higher bu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a firm note with soybeans leading the way higher on export business news. Long soybeans/short wheat trade developed early in the day and lasted until wheat futures hit technical support and triggered buy orders. Corn trade saw some light short-covering and funds are thought t...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels.  World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks.   India’s c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that 3.1 MMT of local wheat have been purchased by the government. The targeted purchase level of 3.6 MMT is expected to be reached. Pakistan has removed the ban on the transportation of wheat between provinces and has tempor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened higher overnight with strength from Tuesday’s reversals carrying through into trade early on Wednesday. The markets turned lower, however, as concerns about worsening relations between the U.S. and China weighed on futures. The soy complex took the brunt of that concern an...

livestock

Let Them Have Meat

Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened with wheat leading the way higher, soybeans firming with support from soyoil and short covering in soymeal while corn established itself as the sell-side of spreads. Wheat futures rallied on concerns that Russian production may fall as well as short-covering and long hedges bein...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Estimates - U.S. wheat in 2020/21 will have reduced stocks.  The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year as lower yields offsett higher harvested acreage.  The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bus...

energy

Oil and Food

The price of petroleum has plummeted, putting countries that are highly dependent on its export earnings into deep fiscal trouble. This should hinder their amount of foreign exchange and thus food imports beyond basic necessity. However, looking at the recent history of U.S. food exports to the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 April 2020 Prices on the domestic grain market continued to grow. Meanwhile, on the export market milling wheat average price decreased to $229/MT FOB Black Sea. Purchase prices grew to RUB 15,700-15,800/MT. Feed barley average export price decreased to $181/MT FOB...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was higher overnight on short covering and what looked to be the start of a Turnaround Tuesday. The day session, however, featured aggressive fund selling in row crops that eliminated any hope for a turnaround. Wheat futures managed to find some support off yesterday’s Crop Condi...

energy feed-grains soy-oilseeds

The Wild and Crazy Crude Oil Market

Can commodities actually be worth less than $0.00? After Monday’s wild trade in the CME May Crude Oil futures contract, we guess they can. As anyone interested in the oil market knows, demand for crude oil and refined energy products have been declining for months. However, worldwide reac...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News The dryness across Europe is easing with showers falling across Spain, western France, and Eastern Europe last week. For most of Europe, the seven-day precipitation anomaly shows little deviation from normal levels. The 15-day anomaly, however, shows that European crops are still...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CBOT grains and livestock markets were mostly higher today with short covering the dominant theme in corn. Wheat futures sold off early in the day but found short covering support as well as some long buying interest in HRW futures while the soy complex was weaker for most of the day with soyme...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Weakness in soymeal and the soy complex was the major feature at the CBOT today. The soy complex is increasingly worried about the demand implications of the livestock sector’s imploding income statements, and that left soymeal to post new contract lows today. The weakness in meal pulled...

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