Recent Feed Grains Analysis
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $368.8/short ton, up $1.1 fro...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.6325/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.1625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $367.7/short ton, down $4 f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pauses and Drifts Lower; NOPA Crush Disappoints; Energies Rally as Inflation Eases
The CBOT started out firm again in the overnight session but quickly turned lower once the day session started. The reason seemed to be “sell the fact” trade after the recent weather market rise in prices with traders seeming to think grain and oilseed supplies may be a bit better t...
Brazil Leans into Meat
Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn production this year could be down almost 10 percent from a year ago, and USDA’s latest forecast has 2024/25 output down 7.2 percent from 2022/...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ranging from Smolensk all the way to Volga Valley. Some nighttime temperatures were as low as minus 12 degrees Celsius which is catastrophic f...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.725/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.145/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $373.3/short ton, up $6.8 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $368.8/short ton, up $1.1 fro...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.6325/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.1625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $367.7/short ton, down $4 f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pauses and Drifts Lower; NOPA Crush Disappoints; Energies Rally as Inflation Eases
The CBOT started out firm again in the overnight session but quickly turned lower once the day session started. The reason seemed to be “sell the fact” trade after the recent weather market rise in prices with traders seeming to think grain and oilseed supplies may be a bit better t...
Brazil Leans into Meat
Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn production this year could be down almost 10 percent from a year ago, and USDA’s latest forecast has 2024/25 output down 7.2 percent from 2022/...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ranging from Smolensk all the way to Volga Valley. Some nighttime temperatures were as low as minus 12 degrees Celsius which is catastrophic f...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.725/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.145/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $373.3/short ton, up $6.8 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...