Australia
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Evolving Markets
Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Evolving Markets
Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...
Japan Boosts Corn and Protein
Japan’s population is declining by a half percent per year and will be 2 million smaller this year than in 2020. Nearly a third of the population is over 65 years of age, adding to the lower food demand factors. Yet the latest Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreig...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ranging from Smolensk all the way to Volga Valley. Some nighttime temperatures were as low as minus 12 degrees Celsius which is catastrophic f...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ranging from Smolensk all the way to Volga Valley. Some nighttime temperatures were as low as minus 12 degrees Celsius which is catastrophic f...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
China
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Tariffs: UCO No, Phosphate Yes
The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties imposed by the Trump Administration. The new tariffs did not include the rumored increase for used cooking oil (UCO) that roiled soybean futur...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Tariffs: UCO No, Phosphate Yes
The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties imposed by the Trump Administration. The new tariffs did not include the rumored increase for used cooking oil (UCO) that roiled soybean futur...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
Europe
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Frosts in Russia’s central, southern, and Volga regions have halted spring planting efforts, which will likely contribute to lower yield potential this year. Russia has completed spring seeding on 16.9 Mha, or 30.2 percent of the planned area, so far. Some of these are...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Frosts in Russia’s central, southern, and Volga regions have halted spring planting efforts, which will likely contribute to lower yield potential this year. Russia has completed spring seeding on 16.9 Mha, or 30.2 percent of the planned area, so far. Some of these are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
India
Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan
U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most populous country. They are likely suffering from what the great psychologist and behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman called focusing illus...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan
U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most populous country. They are likely suffering from what the great psychologist and behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman called focusing illus...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall After Bullish USDA Reports; Panic Not Finished in Cattle Markets
The CBOT was mostly red on Monday with traders seeing little reason to buy the soy complex after a benign and semi-bearish Grain Stocks and acreage reports for soybeans. Further, they saw little reason to keep buying corn and wheat amid large on-farm stocks and amply supplied global balance she...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
North America
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $368.8/short ton, up $1.1 fro...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $368.8/short ton, up $1.1 fro...
Oilseeds Highlights: Defying the Odds
The Market Despite worries about used cooking oil imports, slow exports, and a drop in the NOPA crush, July soybeans closed the week up 9 cents (0.73 percent) at 1228/bushel. Traders must have Brazilian flooding on their minds. However, the November contract lost 2.5 cents (-0.18 percent) to en...
South America
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Russia
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from almost 145 MMT in 2023 to 135 MMT because of the drought in Southern Federal District – the wheat belt of Russia. Russian Ministry of Agr...