SPREADS
Sep. crush trades to 91.62c/bu while oilshare trades at 25.32%. The nearby corn spread Sep/Dec widens out to 12 1/2c from 12 1/4c, and values that were 10 3/4c at the start of the week. Dec/Dec corn trades from 39c to 39 1/4c. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 6 3/4c out to 7 3/4c. The Sep/Nov bean spread trades from 3c out to 3 3/4c carry.
PALM OIL
October down 4 ringgits. Closed lower but up 3% on the week supported by forecasts for lower end of July inventories.
NEWS
Stocks turned mixed as the unemployment rate fell to 10.2%, so far recovering less than half of the jobs lost due to the pandemic. Crude oil trades to $41.35/barrel, while the US dollar firms to 93.26. Big money herds take profits on recent buy gold/sell US dollar trades, with gold prices trading both sides of even today.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 1/2 -1 lower
meal: steady/firm
soyoil: 20-25 lower
corn: steady
wheat: 1-2 lower
canola: .20-.30 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 456K beans sold to China for 20/21.
TECHNICALS
December Soyoil: Futures are backing away from recent cycle highs of 3178c but remain in an uptrend. Would look for any pullback to 3050c as a place to own the market or cover a short. First support is now located at 31c and the market is attempting to hold it. Generally, the trading range is now from 30c to possible target highs of 32c.
best support: 3050c
first support: 3080c
resistance: 3140c
possible range: 3080c-3150c or lower
December Meal: Overall trading range is from $287.50 to $305.00. Prices are attempting to hold on to these ctr lows, with small congestion trade from them. However, in that prices are down at their lows shows inherently weak technical price action. Could try to go long at this level, but would need a tight stop as any trade under ctr lows has little back support until we get to $285.00.
first support: $287.00
resistance: $292.00
possible range: much the same or lower
November Beans: Trading range is from $8.70-$9.10, and trendline support for the day is located at $8.75. Would be more surprised to see a break of this level, as prices seem to be sliding into an $8.75-$8.85 mini-trading range. The trend remains extremely weak with an ADX of only 12, which is why follow-through at tops and bottoms is nearly non-existent as prices chop back and forth.
first support: $8.74/$8.75
resistance: $8.82/$8.83
possible range: much the same
September Wheat: Prices continue to head lower breaking the $5.00 level. Would look for prices to find some support at $4.95 which was the previous top before the escalation to market highs. The $5.00 should offer up some congestion trade. There is a seasonal sell signal this time of the year as well, which is also helping prices to head lower.
first support: $4.95
resistance: $5.05
possible range: much the same
December Corn: Prices continue to sit just above ctr lows of $3.20 this week. The market is beginning to work into a pennant formation off the lows, but exit out of these formations is typically in the same direction we entered them. However, if prices begin to firm on short-covering activity would look for them to trend up towards pennant resistance which crosses at $3.26/$3.27 today. Would doubt if prices can do much better than this.
first support: $3.22
resistance: $3.25 1/2
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER CORN
The major direction is lower with ctr lows posted at $3.20. Prices are now congesting above this level, and it appears that we are stuck at the lower end of the trading range. The pennant formation indicates that traders are locking in profits, while some may be pricing or bargain hunting at these lows. Long term support is clearly established by the long red line at the bottom with the trade to $3.20. It may take a USDA report to turn prices to the downside of the key support line. Would look for possibly heading towards resistance as prices attempt to trend into a $3.20-$3.30 trading range before resuming lower price action.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...
Cow-calf producer margins are discussed less frequently in these pages than their downstream counterparts of feedlot and beef packer margins, but this doesn’t mean they are less important to understanding the beef industry’s current state and outlook. Additionally, discussion of thi...
Reigniting a Transatlantic Deal Former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta is something of a policy rock star after authoring a report on the future strategy for the EU. Most of the 146-page report focuses on strengthening the EU’s internal Single Market but, buried at the end of th...
