Recent Softs Analysis
Rice is Tight
EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of the EU’s rice output, and it has suffered from drought. As a water intensive crop, climate change will have an outside impact on this st...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic production, and a rebounding global economy that has elevated the value of rice. In truth, Thai rice exports are highly correlated to production, wh...
Tomato Economics
U.S. domestic farm policy critics like U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) have a point when they note that the Farm Bill encourages the production of commodities for which Americans often over-consume, while mostly ignoring what is under-consumed and known to be healthy – fruits and...
Oats are In
David McKee at Key International LCC points out the surge in demand for oat milk, which now dominates the creamer used at many coffee shops. Global oat production has been relatively stagnant for years, running at about half the output level of the 1960’s. Production this year increased b...
How Sweet It Isn't
Global surplus sugar stocks are at their lowest since 2010/11 and futures prices are at their highest level in six years. Yet global import demand continues to expand at around 1.8 percent each year. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar exporter, and it will begin harvesting a crop that is...
Declining Population Impacts Consumption
According to USDA, South Korea’s government is taking steps to stop the price of rice from falling and to slow over-production. There will be payments to farmers for reducing planted area by 5.1 percent, and increased government purchases of rice at more than one-fifth of the crop. The pr...
Rice not Nice
India’s rice subsidies were again a complaint today at a hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. India’s rice exports have increased by a fifth over the past decade with all of it being moved into the export market. New Delhi’s rice subsidies have been part of a long-...
Less Traded Category
The news headline says that the Filipino government will import 21,060 MT of onions to fill a supply shortfall until the next domestic harvest in February. Consumer prices have quadrupled in the last four months, which has created a political issue. Vegetables as a general category are subject...
Let Us Say There’s a Problem
Grain and livestock products are the primary delivery sources for dietary calories, yet the accompaniment of a salad provides additional micronutrients and fiber in a low-impact package. Essential to the salad has been lettuce, a plant that is 95 percent water, and has traditionally been a low-...
Yams versus Sweet Potatoes
Yams and sweet potatoes are easily confused and yet they are very different crops, including in global trade. Yams are starchier are more like potatoes, whereas sweet potatoes are sweet. Roughly the same volume of yams and sweet potatoes are produced by the world’s largest producers. Yet...
Coffee Demand Steady
Demand growth for coffee has been far less volatile than production and ending stocks. Ending stocks peaked at 25 percent of consumption in 2001 as the price sunk to $0.44/pound. However, there was a stronger reaction when stocks slipped to 17 percent of production in 2011, and the price peaked...
Trade and Food Security
An anomaly since COVID disrupted supply chains is that the price of rice has been more stable than other food staples such as corn and wheat. One argument for this is that a far smaller share of total rice production is traded, making it less subject to global supply/demand volatility.&n...
Rice is Tight
EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of the EU’s rice output, and it has suffered from drought. As a water intensive crop, climate change will have an outside impact on this st...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic production, and a rebounding global economy that has elevated the value of rice. In truth, Thai rice exports are highly correlated to production, wh...
Tomato Economics
U.S. domestic farm policy critics like U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) have a point when they note that the Farm Bill encourages the production of commodities for which Americans often over-consume, while mostly ignoring what is under-consumed and known to be healthy – fruits and...
Oats are In
David McKee at Key International LCC points out the surge in demand for oat milk, which now dominates the creamer used at many coffee shops. Global oat production has been relatively stagnant for years, running at about half the output level of the 1960’s. Production this year increased b...
How Sweet It Isn't
Global surplus sugar stocks are at their lowest since 2010/11 and futures prices are at their highest level in six years. Yet global import demand continues to expand at around 1.8 percent each year. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar exporter, and it will begin harvesting a crop that is...
Declining Population Impacts Consumption
According to USDA, South Korea’s government is taking steps to stop the price of rice from falling and to slow over-production. There will be payments to farmers for reducing planted area by 5.1 percent, and increased government purchases of rice at more than one-fifth of the crop. The pr...
Rice not Nice
India’s rice subsidies were again a complaint today at a hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. India’s rice exports have increased by a fifth over the past decade with all of it being moved into the export market. New Delhi’s rice subsidies have been part of a long-...
Less Traded Category
The news headline says that the Filipino government will import 21,060 MT of onions to fill a supply shortfall until the next domestic harvest in February. Consumer prices have quadrupled in the last four months, which has created a political issue. Vegetables as a general category are subject...
Let Us Say There’s a Problem
Grain and livestock products are the primary delivery sources for dietary calories, yet the accompaniment of a salad provides additional micronutrients and fiber in a low-impact package. Essential to the salad has been lettuce, a plant that is 95 percent water, and has traditionally been a low-...
Yams versus Sweet Potatoes
Yams and sweet potatoes are easily confused and yet they are very different crops, including in global trade. Yams are starchier are more like potatoes, whereas sweet potatoes are sweet. Roughly the same volume of yams and sweet potatoes are produced by the world’s largest producers. Yet...
Coffee Demand Steady
Demand growth for coffee has been far less volatile than production and ending stocks. Ending stocks peaked at 25 percent of consumption in 2001 as the price sunk to $0.44/pound. However, there was a stronger reaction when stocks slipped to 17 percent of production in 2011, and the price peaked...
Trade and Food Security
An anomaly since COVID disrupted supply chains is that the price of rice has been more stable than other food staples such as corn and wheat. One argument for this is that a far smaller share of total rice production is traded, making it less subject to global supply/demand volatility.&n...