World Perspectives

Softs Recent Softs Analysis

softs

Coffee Demand Steady

Demand growth for coffee has been far less volatile than production and ending stocks. Ending stocks peaked at 25 percent of consumption in 2001 as the price sunk to $0.44/pound. However, there was a stronger reaction when stocks slipped to 17 percent of production in 2011, and the price peaked...

feed-grains wheat softs

Trade and Food Security

An anomaly since COVID disrupted supply chains is that the price of rice has been more stable than other food staples such as corn and wheat.  One argument for this is that a far smaller share of total rice production is traded, making it less subject to global supply/demand volatility.&n...

wheat softs

Wheat Concerns in Asia

Asia has been adopting wheat as a food staple over many decades but the war In Ukraine has some worried about its supply reliability. Over the past dozen years, rice consumption has averaged a 0.86 percent annual increase while wheat consumption has been growing at twice that rate. Because clim...

softs

Blame the Rice Boogey Man

Rice is the top staple food crop in Asia and the third largest global crop after corn and sugarcane. When rice production is in trouble, people pay attention. This year’s crop is suffering from flooding in Thailand, the sixth largest producer and second largest exporter. Plus excess rain...

softs

Drought’s Double Whammy on China

Rice is the second largest crop in China, behind corn, but is perhaps the most important food crop. This year, drought in south China has hurt yields and quality, driving up the price of good rice. China is also the world’s largest importer of cotton, and drought in the world’s larg...

softs

Benefit of Noncompeting Goods

U.S. pet food has been identified as a high-potential agricultural export. Pet food exports have been increasing by an average 8 percent per year and probably higher if Covid’s impact on 2020 is excluded. There are several reasons for this dynamic: Pet food is a rich world concept, and t...

softs

Seeing Red

California is by far the largest tomato producing state with Florida far behind. However, California processes most of the tomatoes, leaving Florida’s production more subject to the impacts of trade. U.S. fresh tomato imports have been increasing at about 0.4 percent per year, with Mexico...

softs

Real Climate Impact

Climate change is being blamed for drought limited grain crops this year, but tree nuts are a better example. Weather has caused volatility in grain markets for ions. In Genesis, Joseph saves the Egyptians during a distressed crop year by releasing grain from the stores he maintained. Variable...

softs

Drought and Rice

Although several crops are at risk due to the drought in southern China, rice is said to be the most at risk. This is because almost half the country’s rice crop is produced in the six provinces being impacted (Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Henan, Jiangxi and Anhui). Some call it a severe ch...

softs

Ongoing Shortages

A French fry shortage is now expanding into a tomato shortage. The U.S. production of potatoes had been expanding even as the acres harvested declined due to increased yields. However, last year’s crop was reduced in size by high heat, and the crop being harvested this month was delayed b...

softs

Princess Cotton

Global cotton production has declined, led by reductions in its two largest producers, China and India. Cotton is a heat tolerant, modest user of water, which appears perfect for climate change. It is also a natural fiber, and its oil contributes to food security. However, the fossil fuel-based...

softs

No Rice Shortage

Food scarcity has been a frequent headline this year but with food inflation now dropping along with commodity prices, rice is an example of the scare that wasn’t. The monsoon was late starting in India, leading concerns that the world’s largest rice exporter would be driving up pri...

softs

Coffee Demand Steady

Demand growth for coffee has been far less volatile than production and ending stocks. Ending stocks peaked at 25 percent of consumption in 2001 as the price sunk to $0.44/pound. However, there was a stronger reaction when stocks slipped to 17 percent of production in 2011, and the price peaked...

feed-grains wheat softs

Trade and Food Security

An anomaly since COVID disrupted supply chains is that the price of rice has been more stable than other food staples such as corn and wheat.  One argument for this is that a far smaller share of total rice production is traded, making it less subject to global supply/demand volatility.&n...

wheat softs

Wheat Concerns in Asia

Asia has been adopting wheat as a food staple over many decades but the war In Ukraine has some worried about its supply reliability. Over the past dozen years, rice consumption has averaged a 0.86 percent annual increase while wheat consumption has been growing at twice that rate. Because clim...

softs

Blame the Rice Boogey Man

Rice is the top staple food crop in Asia and the third largest global crop after corn and sugarcane. When rice production is in trouble, people pay attention. This year’s crop is suffering from flooding in Thailand, the sixth largest producer and second largest exporter. Plus excess rain...

softs

Drought’s Double Whammy on China

Rice is the second largest crop in China, behind corn, but is perhaps the most important food crop. This year, drought in south China has hurt yields and quality, driving up the price of good rice. China is also the world’s largest importer of cotton, and drought in the world’s larg...

softs

Benefit of Noncompeting Goods

U.S. pet food has been identified as a high-potential agricultural export. Pet food exports have been increasing by an average 8 percent per year and probably higher if Covid’s impact on 2020 is excluded. There are several reasons for this dynamic: Pet food is a rich world concept, and t...

softs

Seeing Red

California is by far the largest tomato producing state with Florida far behind. However, California processes most of the tomatoes, leaving Florida’s production more subject to the impacts of trade. U.S. fresh tomato imports have been increasing at about 0.4 percent per year, with Mexico...

softs

Real Climate Impact

Climate change is being blamed for drought limited grain crops this year, but tree nuts are a better example. Weather has caused volatility in grain markets for ions. In Genesis, Joseph saves the Egyptians during a distressed crop year by releasing grain from the stores he maintained. Variable...

softs

Drought and Rice

Although several crops are at risk due to the drought in southern China, rice is said to be the most at risk. This is because almost half the country’s rice crop is produced in the six provinces being impacted (Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Henan, Jiangxi and Anhui). Some call it a severe ch...

softs

Ongoing Shortages

A French fry shortage is now expanding into a tomato shortage. The U.S. production of potatoes had been expanding even as the acres harvested declined due to increased yields. However, last year’s crop was reduced in size by high heat, and the crop being harvested this month was delayed b...

softs

Princess Cotton

Global cotton production has declined, led by reductions in its two largest producers, China and India. Cotton is a heat tolerant, modest user of water, which appears perfect for climate change. It is also a natural fiber, and its oil contributes to food security. However, the fossil fuel-based...

softs

No Rice Shortage

Food scarcity has been a frequent headline this year but with food inflation now dropping along with commodity prices, rice is an example of the scare that wasn’t. The monsoon was late starting in India, leading concerns that the world’s largest rice exporter would be driving up pri...

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