Recent Softs Analysis
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
Pulses Not Pulsing
The International Grains Council (IGC), Rabobank, and others have followed countries and companies moving into the pulses space. It is logical that plant-based proteins like pulses should be an attractive market. However, the compound average growth rate (CAGR) for the larger category is only 2...
Sugar Price Response
The March 2025 No. 11 sugar contract rebounded last week but it is still down over 20 percent from its high. Analysts started the year expecting sugar prices to rise this year on short supplies. The International Sugar Organization is still warning of a net deficit once global consumption is su...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook
Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25. Cotton Production World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...
Dairy Trade Expands Despite Hurdles
Concerns about faltering U.S. dairy exports last year have now subsided as growth has returned to the sector. This despite: production growth leveling off as increases in milk per cow do not offset the fall in the number of dairy farms; an 18 percent rise in dairy futures over the past year...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Oats Decline
A relatively minor crop, just a little over 2 MMT of oats are globally traded each year. Still, it is an important niche and yet seemingly in decline. This year’s crop is slightly larger than last year’s, but that isn’t saying much since that one was the smallest in over a dec...
Citrus Impacts
The global production of oranges is nearly five times greater than the output of lemons and limes. Their distribution is different as well. Over a third of oranges go to processing, versus a quarter of lemons and limes. And less than 10 percent of oranges are moved into the export market, versu...
Spuds Sputter
It is reported that EU potato production has fallen by 37 percent over the past 20 years. This is consistent with U.S. potato production falling by 10.6 percent over the past five years. Some cite the impacts of climate, disease, and changing consumer demand (health) for the declines. Productio...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
Pulses Not Pulsing
The International Grains Council (IGC), Rabobank, and others have followed countries and companies moving into the pulses space. It is logical that plant-based proteins like pulses should be an attractive market. However, the compound average growth rate (CAGR) for the larger category is only 2...
Sugar Price Response
The March 2025 No. 11 sugar contract rebounded last week but it is still down over 20 percent from its high. Analysts started the year expecting sugar prices to rise this year on short supplies. The International Sugar Organization is still warning of a net deficit once global consumption is su...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook
Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25. Cotton Production World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...
Dairy Trade Expands Despite Hurdles
Concerns about faltering U.S. dairy exports last year have now subsided as growth has returned to the sector. This despite: production growth leveling off as increases in milk per cow do not offset the fall in the number of dairy farms; an 18 percent rise in dairy futures over the past year...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Oats Decline
A relatively minor crop, just a little over 2 MMT of oats are globally traded each year. Still, it is an important niche and yet seemingly in decline. This year’s crop is slightly larger than last year’s, but that isn’t saying much since that one was the smallest in over a dec...
Citrus Impacts
The global production of oranges is nearly five times greater than the output of lemons and limes. Their distribution is different as well. Over a third of oranges go to processing, versus a quarter of lemons and limes. And less than 10 percent of oranges are moved into the export market, versu...
Spuds Sputter
It is reported that EU potato production has fallen by 37 percent over the past 20 years. This is consistent with U.S. potato production falling by 10.6 percent over the past five years. Some cite the impacts of climate, disease, and changing consumer demand (health) for the declines. Productio...