Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs
The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...
SCOTUS Takes on WOTUS
One of the biggest issues in agriculture over the past half a dozen years has been the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule – and more generally, the definition of wetlands has been a top issue for decades. Yesterday the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) said they would hear...
Misleading Farm Statistics; Regulatory Loophole; Plurilateral Solution in Geneva
Misleading Farm Statistics Jonathan Kanter, the Biden Administration’s Assistant Attorney General overseeing the Antitrust Division, told the New York Bar Association that he intends to “reinvigorate” the Justice Department’s antitrust law enforcement. His “All-of-...
Unnecessary Angst
The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologue but there was little discernable impact when Russia annexed Crimea in late winter of 2014. Wheat production and exports continued to expan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un Sanayi has received $25 million in six year debt facility from Hollands FMQ development bank. Ulusoy is one of Turkey’s largest flour millers with its business split 50/50 between local flour busi...
December Cold Storage Report
December total red meat and poultry stocks were up from November but remained down 11.2 percent from December 2020. Once again, total pork and poultry stocks posted five-year lows in this month's report. The surprises this month were from persistently low pork and chicken stocks (especially chi...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm
Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...
Problem Off the Farm
COVID revealed the raw underbelly of the U.S. food manufacturing industry. While politicians are blaming consolidation and greed for the disrupted supply chain and skyrocketing food inflation, the industry’s problems are far more complex than the sound bites produced in Washington. In sum...
Record 2023 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production Forecast
Thinking back a little more than a decade ago, the Obama Administration proposed the “cap and trade” energy policy to develop more alternative sources of energy. That plan ultimately went nowhere but compared to the current Biden Administration energy policy approach, it was a more...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Last week’s heatwave in Argentina was as bad with temperatures above 40C (104F) and strong winds in many places. By the week’s end, however, the weather pattern changed, and rains fell over nearly all the agricultural area with total precipitation amounts varying grea...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...
Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs
The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...
SCOTUS Takes on WOTUS
One of the biggest issues in agriculture over the past half a dozen years has been the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule – and more generally, the definition of wetlands has been a top issue for decades. Yesterday the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) said they would hear...
Misleading Farm Statistics; Regulatory Loophole; Plurilateral Solution in Geneva
Misleading Farm Statistics Jonathan Kanter, the Biden Administration’s Assistant Attorney General overseeing the Antitrust Division, told the New York Bar Association that he intends to “reinvigorate” the Justice Department’s antitrust law enforcement. His “All-of-...
Unnecessary Angst
The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologue but there was little discernable impact when Russia annexed Crimea in late winter of 2014. Wheat production and exports continued to expan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un Sanayi has received $25 million in six year debt facility from Hollands FMQ development bank. Ulusoy is one of Turkey’s largest flour millers with its business split 50/50 between local flour busi...
December Cold Storage Report
December total red meat and poultry stocks were up from November but remained down 11.2 percent from December 2020. Once again, total pork and poultry stocks posted five-year lows in this month's report. The surprises this month were from persistently low pork and chicken stocks (especially chi...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm
Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...
Problem Off the Farm
COVID revealed the raw underbelly of the U.S. food manufacturing industry. While politicians are blaming consolidation and greed for the disrupted supply chain and skyrocketing food inflation, the industry’s problems are far more complex than the sound bites produced in Washington. In sum...
Record 2023 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production Forecast
Thinking back a little more than a decade ago, the Obama Administration proposed the “cap and trade” energy policy to develop more alternative sources of energy. That plan ultimately went nowhere but compared to the current Biden Administration energy policy approach, it was a more...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Last week’s heatwave in Argentina was as bad with temperatures above 40C (104F) and strong winds in many places. By the week’s end, however, the weather pattern changed, and rains fell over nearly all the agricultural area with total precipitation amounts varying grea...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...