Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate
Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 August 2018 Grain prices increased due to rising prices on international markets and weakening of the ruble. Milling wheat export prices rose $3/MT to $235/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew to $187-192/MT CPT-Black Sea port. While the average fee...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Livestock futures were higher on modest support while grains futures gave back all of Turnaround Tuesday’s gains. Would that make today a Washout Wednesday? Regardless, falling crude oil, a higher dollar, and rising trade concerns left the CBOT trading in the red today. Wall s...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Keeping the Feds Out of Nutrition
The 2018 Farm Bill is in the House-Senate conference committee. Three former USDA secretaries, Tom Vilsack (Obama), Ann Veneman (Bush 43) and Dan Glickman (Clinton), penned an op-ed in The Hill newspaper entitled, “Focusing on Nutrition is Paramount to Getting a Sound, Bipartisan Far...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Export Taxes; NOPA Crush Estimate; China’s U.S. Soybean Imports
Argentina Suspends Export Tax Reductions for Soyoil and Soymeal The government of Argentina today announced that reductions in the export tax rates for soymeal and soyoil will be suspended for the next six months. Since the beginning of this year, those rates along with that for soybeans have b...
Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession
Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
After two days of aggressive selling, the CBOT turned green as a Turnaround Tuesday got underway. Wheat and the soy complex (especially soymeal) lead the way higher and corn followed obligingly. Exports seem to be the market’s main focus now, with continuing drought in the Black Sea regio...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate
Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 August 2018 Grain prices increased due to rising prices on international markets and weakening of the ruble. Milling wheat export prices rose $3/MT to $235/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew to $187-192/MT CPT-Black Sea port. While the average fee...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Livestock futures were higher on modest support while grains futures gave back all of Turnaround Tuesday’s gains. Would that make today a Washout Wednesday? Regardless, falling crude oil, a higher dollar, and rising trade concerns left the CBOT trading in the red today. Wall s...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Keeping the Feds Out of Nutrition
The 2018 Farm Bill is in the House-Senate conference committee. Three former USDA secretaries, Tom Vilsack (Obama), Ann Veneman (Bush 43) and Dan Glickman (Clinton), penned an op-ed in The Hill newspaper entitled, “Focusing on Nutrition is Paramount to Getting a Sound, Bipartisan Far...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Export Taxes; NOPA Crush Estimate; China’s U.S. Soybean Imports
Argentina Suspends Export Tax Reductions for Soyoil and Soymeal The government of Argentina today announced that reductions in the export tax rates for soymeal and soyoil will be suspended for the next six months. Since the beginning of this year, those rates along with that for soybeans have b...
Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession
Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
After two days of aggressive selling, the CBOT turned green as a Turnaround Tuesday got underway. Wheat and the soy complex (especially soymeal) lead the way higher and corn followed obligingly. Exports seem to be the market’s main focus now, with continuing drought in the Black Sea regio...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...