Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...
China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives
China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from that country. As a result of the retaliation, U.S. soybean exports in 2018/19...
Livestock Roundup: Tyson Fire and Cattle Markets; Canadian Feeder Pigs
Tyson Fire and Cattle Markets As Matt Herrington reported on Monday, cattle futures were down the limit after Tyson’s packing plant in Garden City, Kansas suffered a major fire last weekend. It will be closed indefinitely, and following is a closer look at the impact. The plant has a capa...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...
Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...
China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives
China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from that country. As a result of the retaliation, U.S. soybean exports in 2018/19...
Livestock Roundup: Tyson Fire and Cattle Markets; Canadian Feeder Pigs
Tyson Fire and Cattle Markets As Matt Herrington reported on Monday, cattle futures were down the limit after Tyson’s packing plant in Garden City, Kansas suffered a major fire last weekend. It will be closed indefinitely, and following is a closer look at the impact. The plant has a capa...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...