CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
The Economics of Flu
Inclusive Costs (NBER Working Paper No. 22137; March 2016): This study included former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and found that a large pandemic imposed the same inclusive economic costs as global warming - $570 billion/year. Collective Action (NBER Working Paper No. 17195; July 20...
Viral Opinion; Opposing Views
Viral Opinion A YouGov/Economist survey found that Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to be extremely concerned about the coronavirus. This started a twitter food fight over which party is dumber – the answer is they both are wrong. Affective polarization or negative feelings...
Hog Herd up 4 Percent; Pork Demand Unpredictable
USDA released the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday. Some topline highlights: Total swine inventory on 1 March was 77.6 million head, 104 percent of March 2019, but 99 percent of 1 December 2019. Market hogs were above pre-report expectations Breeding herd was below pre-report...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Global Deterioration
On the one hand, no country has greater experience with epidemics than China (Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, SARS, etc.), and because the nature of such communicable diseases in a globalized world leads to pandemics, Beijing is correct that cooperation is key to the solution. But no one seems quite...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Problems; U.S. Soy Plantings
Large U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week The week was a good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoil according to today’s USDA export sales report. The large sales included what appears to be three cargoes of soybeans to China. Net soybean export sales last week totaled 904,30...
Livestock Round Up
Hold on to Your Meat Packing Plant Job The most interesting news today was the unemployment numbers; the U.S. Department of Labor announced that for last week, initial claims for unemployment benefits was 3,283,000, an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week's revised level. N...
Market Commentary
The market opened the day mixed as called and with some profit-taking; it ended the day mostly lower but with some interesting twists and turns. Volume: Volume was relatively low except for the Euronext wheat contract and feeder cattle. Red Hogs: There were higher bids for most...
Challenging Outlook for U.S. Corn
During the past several weeks the worldwide impact of the coronavirus and the resulting severe slowdown of economic activity have sent most financial markets spiraling lower. However, their decent has been accompanied by a sharp increase in volatility. Stock market indices have experienced almo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
The Economics of Flu
Inclusive Costs (NBER Working Paper No. 22137; March 2016): This study included former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and found that a large pandemic imposed the same inclusive economic costs as global warming - $570 billion/year. Collective Action (NBER Working Paper No. 17195; July 20...
Viral Opinion; Opposing Views
Viral Opinion A YouGov/Economist survey found that Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to be extremely concerned about the coronavirus. This started a twitter food fight over which party is dumber – the answer is they both are wrong. Affective polarization or negative feelings...
Hog Herd up 4 Percent; Pork Demand Unpredictable
USDA released the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday. Some topline highlights: Total swine inventory on 1 March was 77.6 million head, 104 percent of March 2019, but 99 percent of 1 December 2019. Market hogs were above pre-report expectations Breeding herd was below pre-report...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Global Deterioration
On the one hand, no country has greater experience with epidemics than China (Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, SARS, etc.), and because the nature of such communicable diseases in a globalized world leads to pandemics, Beijing is correct that cooperation is key to the solution. But no one seems quite...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Problems; U.S. Soy Plantings
Large U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week The week was a good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoil according to today’s USDA export sales report. The large sales included what appears to be three cargoes of soybeans to China. Net soybean export sales last week totaled 904,30...
Livestock Round Up
Hold on to Your Meat Packing Plant Job The most interesting news today was the unemployment numbers; the U.S. Department of Labor announced that for last week, initial claims for unemployment benefits was 3,283,000, an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week's revised level. N...
Market Commentary
The market opened the day mixed as called and with some profit-taking; it ended the day mostly lower but with some interesting twists and turns. Volume: Volume was relatively low except for the Euronext wheat contract and feeder cattle. Red Hogs: There were higher bids for most...
Challenging Outlook for U.S. Corn
During the past several weeks the worldwide impact of the coronavirus and the resulting severe slowdown of economic activity have sent most financial markets spiraling lower. However, their decent has been accompanied by a sharp increase in volatility. Stock market indices have experienced almo...