Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Trade Compensation Legs; WTO Developments; Bad but Getting Better
Trade Compensation Legs The Trump administration has approved a second tranche of trade mitigation payments to U.S. farmers and asserts that it is the final one. The Office of Management and Budget was reluctant to grant the payments in the first place, and its new director, Russell Vought, wil...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Dryness; NOPA Crush; Export Discrepancy; China Soy Purchase
Escalating Drought in Paraguay and Brazil Over the past few months, the soybean market has understandably been dominated by the U.S-China trade dispute. However, there should be greater focus on the evolving dry weather situation in Brazil and Paraguay that will likely reduce their soybean outp...
Straws in the Wind
With the Christmas and New Year holidays looming, this is the last full week for trading of grain and soy futures markets in 2018. Following early closures on 24 December and 31 December, they will then be closed on 25 December and 1 January. The holiday mood seems to have settled into the mark...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Ag Commodities Shrug while Crude Oil is Hammered
Corn and soybean futures were higher while wheat market dropped lower in unenthusiastic trade. Wheat has a bullish technical story, however, and could see a rally in the very near-term. Cattle futures remain supported by non-commercial buying ahead of the Cattle on Feed report while hog futures...
Lame-Duck Congress Deadlines: Budget and Biodiesel Tax Credit
Congress faces a midnight Friday deadline to pass an omnibus spending bill that funds seven agencies in the federal government, including USDA. Any government shutdown resulting from a failure to do so would only be partial, however, as it would only affect those entities since appropriations b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco has reportedly reduced the import tariff on grains from Russia to zero, although it has not been a major importer of that origin with only a few wheat shipments from there to date in 2018. Russia does hope that it will import more, and...
Beans versus Cows; USMCA versus Biofuel; U.S. Trade Policy; Hollow Africa Plan; Food Mislabeling
Beans versus Cows This week EU agriculture commissioners are considering the policy proposals for replacing imported oilseeds with newly incentivized, domestically-produced sources of plant-based proteins. This import substitution plan has the support of Europe’s farmers but draws the enm...
Insane Consumption Growth
World crop production slipped in 2018 from the record levels reached in the previous five years, which masked the fact that world consumption also set records in each of those same years. World soybean production was a record again in 2018, but world production of corn and wheat fell as did tha...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets started higher Sunday night, and they held those small gains throughout the entire session. The relatively light volume then continued through today to start the week before Christmas. The market had been expecting an announcement of additional soybean export sal...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybeans market was surprised last week when the U.S. government announced that 1.4 MMT of soybeans had been sold to China. There were talks of potential sales up to 4 MMT, which current information seems to indicate have not occurred. Nevertheless, the announcement...
Smile! Soybeans Neutral After China’s Return
Corn options traders remain bullish even after two weeks of sideways trading. While the market is likely to need fulfillment of the 3 December chart gap before moving higher, traders remain bullishly positioned. Interestingly, after China’s semi-official return to the U.S. soybean market,...
Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Trade Compensation Legs; WTO Developments; Bad but Getting Better
Trade Compensation Legs The Trump administration has approved a second tranche of trade mitigation payments to U.S. farmers and asserts that it is the final one. The Office of Management and Budget was reluctant to grant the payments in the first place, and its new director, Russell Vought, wil...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Dryness; NOPA Crush; Export Discrepancy; China Soy Purchase
Escalating Drought in Paraguay and Brazil Over the past few months, the soybean market has understandably been dominated by the U.S-China trade dispute. However, there should be greater focus on the evolving dry weather situation in Brazil and Paraguay that will likely reduce their soybean outp...
Straws in the Wind
With the Christmas and New Year holidays looming, this is the last full week for trading of grain and soy futures markets in 2018. Following early closures on 24 December and 31 December, they will then be closed on 25 December and 1 January. The holiday mood seems to have settled into the mark...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Ag Commodities Shrug while Crude Oil is Hammered
Corn and soybean futures were higher while wheat market dropped lower in unenthusiastic trade. Wheat has a bullish technical story, however, and could see a rally in the very near-term. Cattle futures remain supported by non-commercial buying ahead of the Cattle on Feed report while hog futures...
Lame-Duck Congress Deadlines: Budget and Biodiesel Tax Credit
Congress faces a midnight Friday deadline to pass an omnibus spending bill that funds seven agencies in the federal government, including USDA. Any government shutdown resulting from a failure to do so would only be partial, however, as it would only affect those entities since appropriations b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco has reportedly reduced the import tariff on grains from Russia to zero, although it has not been a major importer of that origin with only a few wheat shipments from there to date in 2018. Russia does hope that it will import more, and...
Beans versus Cows; USMCA versus Biofuel; U.S. Trade Policy; Hollow Africa Plan; Food Mislabeling
Beans versus Cows This week EU agriculture commissioners are considering the policy proposals for replacing imported oilseeds with newly incentivized, domestically-produced sources of plant-based proteins. This import substitution plan has the support of Europe’s farmers but draws the enm...
Insane Consumption Growth
World crop production slipped in 2018 from the record levels reached in the previous five years, which masked the fact that world consumption also set records in each of those same years. World soybean production was a record again in 2018, but world production of corn and wheat fell as did tha...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets started higher Sunday night, and they held those small gains throughout the entire session. The relatively light volume then continued through today to start the week before Christmas. The market had been expecting an announcement of additional soybean export sal...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybeans market was surprised last week when the U.S. government announced that 1.4 MMT of soybeans had been sold to China. There were talks of potential sales up to 4 MMT, which current information seems to indicate have not occurred. Nevertheless, the announcement...
Smile! Soybeans Neutral After China’s Return
Corn options traders remain bullish even after two weeks of sideways trading. While the market is likely to need fulfillment of the 3 December chart gap before moving higher, traders remain bullishly positioned. Interestingly, after China’s semi-official return to the U.S. soybean market,...