Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire
The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...
A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways
There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...
ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act
ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
Post-November Economy; Disparate Fears
Post-November Economy Fiscal recklessness has its limit, and this will come home to roost. Having already borrowed and spent $3 trillion to revive the COVID-coma economy, Congressional Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion subsidizing states and cities, and Democratic presidential candi...
Livestock Round Up: Dairy Market Still Searching for Balance
The final 2019 dairy utilization data from USDA released this week shows that per capita conumption of milk is at an historic high of 650 pounds. Annual dairy consumption increased by 12.4 percent from 2017 to 2109, while fluid milk, the highest priced use of milk dropped. The annual increase...
Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales
China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...
More Questions for Grain Markets
Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...
Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire
The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...
A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways
There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...
ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act
ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
Post-November Economy; Disparate Fears
Post-November Economy Fiscal recklessness has its limit, and this will come home to roost. Having already borrowed and spent $3 trillion to revive the COVID-coma economy, Congressional Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion subsidizing states and cities, and Democratic presidential candi...
Livestock Round Up: Dairy Market Still Searching for Balance
The final 2019 dairy utilization data from USDA released this week shows that per capita conumption of milk is at an historic high of 650 pounds. Annual dairy consumption increased by 12.4 percent from 2017 to 2109, while fluid milk, the highest priced use of milk dropped. The annual increase...
Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales
China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...
More Questions for Grain Markets
Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...