Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead
AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and smart phones. Those technologies have had their share of ethical concerns but the genie is now out of the bottle and short of government regu...
Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers
USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last year’s 72.69 million head. The report was generally in line with pre-report expectations, except there were a few more market...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Friend-shoring Challenge
Friend-shoring or moving supply chains closer to being between like-minded nations doesn’t seem like an agriculture issue but it could become one. That is because the sector is increasingly being treated like a strategic asset, and it faces differentiated production standards as regulatio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Unhelpful Timing; Tai Strengths and Weaknesses; IPEF’s Weakness
Unhelpful Timing The U.S. agriculture sector unleashed a pro-trade barrage on the Biden Administration this week and USDA bureaucrats wittingly or unwittingly contributed to the onslaught. U.S. agriculture is highly dependent on trade. It was first battered by Donald Trump’s trade war and...
Meat Trade Changes
The U.S. is a major meat producer and exporters, and global demand has been growing. At the same time, competition has been growing and U.S. market share has been declining, though less for poultry than for beef. Brazil is a low-cost producer and has been a preferred provider for China where mu...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead
AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and smart phones. Those technologies have had their share of ethical concerns but the genie is now out of the bottle and short of government regu...
Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers
USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last year’s 72.69 million head. The report was generally in line with pre-report expectations, except there were a few more market...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Friend-shoring Challenge
Friend-shoring or moving supply chains closer to being between like-minded nations doesn’t seem like an agriculture issue but it could become one. That is because the sector is increasingly being treated like a strategic asset, and it faces differentiated production standards as regulatio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Unhelpful Timing; Tai Strengths and Weaknesses; IPEF’s Weakness
Unhelpful Timing The U.S. agriculture sector unleashed a pro-trade barrage on the Biden Administration this week and USDA bureaucrats wittingly or unwittingly contributed to the onslaught. U.S. agriculture is highly dependent on trade. It was first battered by Donald Trump’s trade war and...
Meat Trade Changes
The U.S. is a major meat producer and exporters, and global demand has been growing. At the same time, competition has been growing and U.S. market share has been declining, though less for poultry than for beef. Brazil is a low-cost producer and has been a preferred provider for China where mu...