Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Weak Technicals; Livestock Markets Digest New Data
The CBOT pulled back again on Friday with weak technical conditions in corn and soybeans contributing to early declines. U.S. weather forecasts are mostly hot and dry still, but recent European model runs show greater precipitation for the central U.S. That put a bearish bias in the CBOT today...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Cattle Supply Continuing to Contract in Line with Expectations
USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report was released this afternoon. All cattle and calves in the United States on 1 July totaled 101 million head, 99 percent of July 2020 – in line with pre-report expectations. Of that inventory, all cows and heifers that have calved totaled 40...
Tilting at Windmills; Floored Prices; Greenwashing Sustainability
Tilting at Windmills China is being chided in the financial press for trying to limit commodity prices. In addition to scrutinizing pricing platforms, Beijing is auctioning stockpiles and warning against speculation. This approach ignores the real impacts of underlying demand, which the governm...
Different Value-Added
USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...
Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash
While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the weather. It is the known unknown and there will not be any clarity for a while yet. In a brief reflection of diversity (different commoditie...
Green Measures Have Consequences; Good Choice at FAS
Green Measures Have Consequences Under France’s new Climate and Resilience law, farmers must reduce their emissions from nitrogen fertilizer by 15 percent or eventually face a fine for not doing so. In addition, school and government cafeterias must offer a vegetarian option at least once...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Buys Argentine Soy; EU Soy Imports; Brazil Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Down Last Week The week ending 15 July was not a good one for export sales of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil. Apparently, it will be quite a while before sales begin to substantially increase. Net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 62,000 MT for the c...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed and Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory Preview
Tomorrow, USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 July at 99 percent of a year ago. The range of estimates was fairly narrow between 98 and 100 percent. The implied inventory of cattle on feed wou...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...
Market Commentary: Corn Fills Chart Gaps; Canola, Spring Wheat Lower on Canadian Rains
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn showing the greatest strength, despite posting gains of just 2-3 cents. Soyoil fell as the Biden administration is delaying rulemaking for biofuel blending mandates and canola futures broke below major support as the Canadian weather outlook improves (m...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Weak Technicals; Livestock Markets Digest New Data
The CBOT pulled back again on Friday with weak technical conditions in corn and soybeans contributing to early declines. U.S. weather forecasts are mostly hot and dry still, but recent European model runs show greater precipitation for the central U.S. That put a bearish bias in the CBOT today...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Cattle Supply Continuing to Contract in Line with Expectations
USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report was released this afternoon. All cattle and calves in the United States on 1 July totaled 101 million head, 99 percent of July 2020 – in line with pre-report expectations. Of that inventory, all cows and heifers that have calved totaled 40...
Tilting at Windmills; Floored Prices; Greenwashing Sustainability
Tilting at Windmills China is being chided in the financial press for trying to limit commodity prices. In addition to scrutinizing pricing platforms, Beijing is auctioning stockpiles and warning against speculation. This approach ignores the real impacts of underlying demand, which the governm...
Different Value-Added
USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...
Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash
While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the weather. It is the known unknown and there will not be any clarity for a while yet. In a brief reflection of diversity (different commoditie...
Green Measures Have Consequences; Good Choice at FAS
Green Measures Have Consequences Under France’s new Climate and Resilience law, farmers must reduce their emissions from nitrogen fertilizer by 15 percent or eventually face a fine for not doing so. In addition, school and government cafeterias must offer a vegetarian option at least once...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Buys Argentine Soy; EU Soy Imports; Brazil Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Down Last Week The week ending 15 July was not a good one for export sales of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil. Apparently, it will be quite a while before sales begin to substantially increase. Net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 62,000 MT for the c...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed and Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory Preview
Tomorrow, USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 July at 99 percent of a year ago. The range of estimates was fairly narrow between 98 and 100 percent. The implied inventory of cattle on feed wou...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...
Market Commentary: Corn Fills Chart Gaps; Canola, Spring Wheat Lower on Canadian Rains
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn showing the greatest strength, despite posting gains of just 2-3 cents. Soyoil fell as the Biden administration is delaying rulemaking for biofuel blending mandates and canola futures broke below major support as the Canadian weather outlook improves (m...