Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
The Incredible Surge of “Cheese Milk”
The June Class III milk futures contract finally gave up some ground today dropping to $19.75 during trading but rallying to close at $19.80/cwt, down $0.41 but still the highest futures price since 2014. More remarkable, at its peak the contract gained more than $9.00 over 30 days. And, it ma...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Monthly Summary May Activity Down, Open Interest at End Of Month Points to Reset Collectively, the eight leading agricultural futures contracts on the Dalian Exchange saw their monthly trading and volume fall by just under 16 percent and 12 percent, respectively in May. Note, there is a contrac...
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
Livestock Round Up: Meat Retailing During COVID: It’s a Grind
Someday in the near future we can envision an entire introduction to micro-economics textbooks using the COVID-era meat sector to illustrate virtually all the basic theories of the discipline. Of course, there is supply and demand allocation (panic buying at groceries), shifting supply curves (...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India’s Vegoil Imports; Chinese Uncertainty
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights This week has been an active one for U.S. soybean export sales to China and unknown destination. USDA reported soybean export sales totaling 570,000 MT since 29 May. Of that amount 306,000 MT are reported as sold for unknown destinations and 264,000 MT haven bee...
Trade Policy’s Pollution Bias; Election Weighs on Policy
Trade Policy’s Pollution Bias UC-Berkley economist Joseph Shapiro analyzed (see NBER Working Paper No. 26845) tariff and nontariff barriers on global imports based on the relative CO2 emissions involved with the products. He found that “dirtier” products face lower import barr...
Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
The Incredible Surge of “Cheese Milk”
The June Class III milk futures contract finally gave up some ground today dropping to $19.75 during trading but rallying to close at $19.80/cwt, down $0.41 but still the highest futures price since 2014. More remarkable, at its peak the contract gained more than $9.00 over 30 days. And, it ma...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Monthly Summary May Activity Down, Open Interest at End Of Month Points to Reset Collectively, the eight leading agricultural futures contracts on the Dalian Exchange saw their monthly trading and volume fall by just under 16 percent and 12 percent, respectively in May. Note, there is a contrac...
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
Livestock Round Up: Meat Retailing During COVID: It’s a Grind
Someday in the near future we can envision an entire introduction to micro-economics textbooks using the COVID-era meat sector to illustrate virtually all the basic theories of the discipline. Of course, there is supply and demand allocation (panic buying at groceries), shifting supply curves (...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India’s Vegoil Imports; Chinese Uncertainty
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights This week has been an active one for U.S. soybean export sales to China and unknown destination. USDA reported soybean export sales totaling 570,000 MT since 29 May. Of that amount 306,000 MT are reported as sold for unknown destinations and 264,000 MT haven bee...
Trade Policy’s Pollution Bias; Election Weighs on Policy
Trade Policy’s Pollution Bias UC-Berkley economist Joseph Shapiro analyzed (see NBER Working Paper No. 26845) tariff and nontariff barriers on global imports based on the relative CO2 emissions involved with the products. He found that “dirtier” products face lower import barr...