The Evolving Trading System; CAP’s Fault; Fooled Foodies
The Evolving Trading System WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo laments that people are forgetting the importance of a rule-based system of economic cooperation. Former Clinton Administration trade negotiator Harry Broadman laments that under President Trump, the U.S. has become more lik...
Market Commentary
Trading at the CBOT today was muted with traders mostly evening positions, taking some profits, and generally not adding to or subtracting from risk ahead of the weekend. Fundamental news was light as well, except for forecasts that a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will create above-avera...
Rise in Wheat Futures
Chicago wheat futures have been climbing for the past few weeks based on still somewhat speculative supply losses due to adverse weather conditions and solid demand. Futures literally look forward while USDA’s strength is in the present and past. Historically, the stocks to use ratio and...
Canadian Federal Elections and Ag Trade
Canada will hold its federal parliamentary election on Monday 21 October. Polling shows a tight race. The latest 10 major published polls (for what polling is worth) conducted from 11 through 16 October shows the following: Overnight tracking this week by CBC shows the Liberal Party moving up...
Bad Tariff Idea; Hurdles to New Breeding Techniques
Bad Tariff Idea In an effort to rationalize the imposition of tariffs by President Trump, some Republicans are trying to create support for them by directing their use toward politically attractive ends, such as aiding poor people. The concept of redirecting punitive duties has already been tri...
Livestock Roundup
Broilers Under Short Term Pressure Meat demand remains steady with production. USDA’s forecast ending stocks for the fourth quarter of 2019 remains relative unchanged from the ending stocks in 2018 though beef production is up 0.1 percent, broiler production is up 3 percent and pork produ...
Market Commentary
The futures market ended the day with weakness where there had been strength as in lean hogs and soyoil, and strength where there had been weakness, such as corn. It had opened higher as predicted, though it might not have been for all the right reasons. There continues to be a lot of ent...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 October)
Update for 11 October 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price. Transportation and Export Report: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consult...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 October)
Data Updated Through: 17 October 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt. Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 17 October 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It remains difficult for dry-bulk markets to...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush, Soy Sales to China, GMO Cotton, Ukraine Oilseeds
NOPA September Crush Well Below Expectations The September NOPA report released on Wednesday indicated 152.566 million bushels (4.153 MMT) of soybeans were crushed in September. That was almost 10 million bushels below the average estimate of 9 analysts queried by Reuters of 162.135 million bus...
Better than it Was
The year 2019 has been difficult for cow-calf producers with heavy winter snowstorms that reduced calf survival rates, massive spring flooding, and the summer weakness in cattle prices. Now, producers are racing to get calves to market before another early snowstorm hits and reduces their chanc...
Morality Trade
Trade and industry are not just distorted by tariffs a la Donald Trump, but increasingly by sanctions intended to protect a political or moral principle. • India says it will not buy Malaysian palm oil because Kuala Lumpur disagreed with New Delhi’s actions in Kashmir. &b...
The Evolving Trading System; CAP’s Fault; Fooled Foodies
The Evolving Trading System WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo laments that people are forgetting the importance of a rule-based system of economic cooperation. Former Clinton Administration trade negotiator Harry Broadman laments that under President Trump, the U.S. has become more lik...
Market Commentary
Trading at the CBOT today was muted with traders mostly evening positions, taking some profits, and generally not adding to or subtracting from risk ahead of the weekend. Fundamental news was light as well, except for forecasts that a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will create above-avera...
Rise in Wheat Futures
Chicago wheat futures have been climbing for the past few weeks based on still somewhat speculative supply losses due to adverse weather conditions and solid demand. Futures literally look forward while USDA’s strength is in the present and past. Historically, the stocks to use ratio and...
Canadian Federal Elections and Ag Trade
Canada will hold its federal parliamentary election on Monday 21 October. Polling shows a tight race. The latest 10 major published polls (for what polling is worth) conducted from 11 through 16 October shows the following: Overnight tracking this week by CBC shows the Liberal Party moving up...
Bad Tariff Idea; Hurdles to New Breeding Techniques
Bad Tariff Idea In an effort to rationalize the imposition of tariffs by President Trump, some Republicans are trying to create support for them by directing their use toward politically attractive ends, such as aiding poor people. The concept of redirecting punitive duties has already been tri...
Livestock Roundup
Broilers Under Short Term Pressure Meat demand remains steady with production. USDA’s forecast ending stocks for the fourth quarter of 2019 remains relative unchanged from the ending stocks in 2018 though beef production is up 0.1 percent, broiler production is up 3 percent and pork produ...
Market Commentary
The futures market ended the day with weakness where there had been strength as in lean hogs and soyoil, and strength where there had been weakness, such as corn. It had opened higher as predicted, though it might not have been for all the right reasons. There continues to be a lot of ent...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 October)
Update for 11 October 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price. Transportation and Export Report: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consult...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 October)
Data Updated Through: 17 October 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt. Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 17 October 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It remains difficult for dry-bulk markets to...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush, Soy Sales to China, GMO Cotton, Ukraine Oilseeds
NOPA September Crush Well Below Expectations The September NOPA report released on Wednesday indicated 152.566 million bushels (4.153 MMT) of soybeans were crushed in September. That was almost 10 million bushels below the average estimate of 9 analysts queried by Reuters of 162.135 million bus...
Better than it Was
The year 2019 has been difficult for cow-calf producers with heavy winter snowstorms that reduced calf survival rates, massive spring flooding, and the summer weakness in cattle prices. Now, producers are racing to get calves to market before another early snowstorm hits and reduces their chanc...
Morality Trade
Trade and industry are not just distorted by tariffs a la Donald Trump, but increasingly by sanctions intended to protect a political or moral principle. • India says it will not buy Malaysian palm oil because Kuala Lumpur disagreed with New Delhi’s actions in Kashmir. &b...