Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; USDA WASDE Report and Soybeans
Minimal U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil made only small sales of the three commodities in the week ending 6 May. That is likely to be the case for most of the rest of the marketing year consider...
Market Commentary: Unsurprising Surprise
Today’s USDA WASDE report was not what the trade thought, and yet it was not caught flat-footed. To some degree this is because years of guessing wrong on what USDA will say, it simply takes it as another observation point and not necessarily the Bible. This was reinforced by the fact tha...
Border Tax Rationalized; Stimulus Leakage; Inflation and Environment
Border Tax Rationalized There are both economic and geopolitical reasons being presented for why the G-7 (U.S., Canada, EU, and Japan) should pursue a common carbon border measure. The first is that it is not in Europe’s interest to go it alone. Brussels could sanctimoniously claim itself...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog Producers Confront the Scissors Effect Record feed costs, historically high piglet prices, biosafety costs, and declining live hog and pork prices have created the dreaded scissors effect for many hog producers. The scissors effect, a term from corporate finance...
Ethanol Price Impact
The June ethanol futures contract hit a record high last week at $2.29/gallon but that may not have a lasting effect on exports. The market has been in recovery mode as transportation fuel demand recovers from COVID restrictions that had sent ethanol values last year to a 10-year record low of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market grew following global trends. The export milling wheat average price grew to $276/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price grew to RUB 15,600/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price gre...
Market Commentary: End-Users Bid CBOT Higher Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT started the day lower with continued fund liquidation in the major ag commodities. End-users, however, stepped up and offered support at key technical levels, which allowed the markets to firm and rally into the close. Soybeans were the upside leader for the day, buoyed by new contract...
Labor Situation and Livestock
Tomorrow, USDA releases its monthly WASDE report. Last month’s report projected red meat and poultry production in 2021 to be 100.7 percent of 2020. Beef was projected to be 101.8 percent and broilers 100.5 percent, with a slight reduction in pork at 99.9 percent from its record in 2020...
Free with a Twist; Cleaner Economy
Free with a Twist A group of U.S. Congressional Democrats are proposing universal free meals to all school children. The massive expansion in federal food aid would make permanently free breakfast, lunch, dinner, and a snack to all pupils, regardless of family income. The merits of universal fr...
Ethanol Ripple Effects
Brazilian ethanol prices have been rising, which has usually been good for U.S. ethanol exports. Bloomberg reports that increased demand for transportation fuel may force more Brazilian sugar into ethanol production rather than food. The sugar market is very tight on reduced output. U.S. ethano...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity price...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; USDA WASDE Report and Soybeans
Minimal U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil made only small sales of the three commodities in the week ending 6 May. That is likely to be the case for most of the rest of the marketing year consider...
Market Commentary: Unsurprising Surprise
Today’s USDA WASDE report was not what the trade thought, and yet it was not caught flat-footed. To some degree this is because years of guessing wrong on what USDA will say, it simply takes it as another observation point and not necessarily the Bible. This was reinforced by the fact tha...
Border Tax Rationalized; Stimulus Leakage; Inflation and Environment
Border Tax Rationalized There are both economic and geopolitical reasons being presented for why the G-7 (U.S., Canada, EU, and Japan) should pursue a common carbon border measure. The first is that it is not in Europe’s interest to go it alone. Brussels could sanctimoniously claim itself...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog Producers Confront the Scissors Effect Record feed costs, historically high piglet prices, biosafety costs, and declining live hog and pork prices have created the dreaded scissors effect for many hog producers. The scissors effect, a term from corporate finance...
Ethanol Price Impact
The June ethanol futures contract hit a record high last week at $2.29/gallon but that may not have a lasting effect on exports. The market has been in recovery mode as transportation fuel demand recovers from COVID restrictions that had sent ethanol values last year to a 10-year record low of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market grew following global trends. The export milling wheat average price grew to $276/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price grew to RUB 15,600/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price gre...
Market Commentary: End-Users Bid CBOT Higher Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT started the day lower with continued fund liquidation in the major ag commodities. End-users, however, stepped up and offered support at key technical levels, which allowed the markets to firm and rally into the close. Soybeans were the upside leader for the day, buoyed by new contract...
Labor Situation and Livestock
Tomorrow, USDA releases its monthly WASDE report. Last month’s report projected red meat and poultry production in 2021 to be 100.7 percent of 2020. Beef was projected to be 101.8 percent and broilers 100.5 percent, with a slight reduction in pork at 99.9 percent from its record in 2020...
Free with a Twist; Cleaner Economy
Free with a Twist A group of U.S. Congressional Democrats are proposing universal free meals to all school children. The massive expansion in federal food aid would make permanently free breakfast, lunch, dinner, and a snack to all pupils, regardless of family income. The merits of universal fr...
Ethanol Ripple Effects
Brazilian ethanol prices have been rising, which has usually been good for U.S. ethanol exports. Bloomberg reports that increased demand for transportation fuel may force more Brazilian sugar into ethanol production rather than food. The sugar market is very tight on reduced output. U.S. ethano...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity price...