Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 11 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 11 October 2024 By Matt Herrington Vessel owners are still hoping for a rally in freight markets – as they have been since August – but the lack of upward momentum in rates has not delayed these hopes until November or December. Unfortunately for owners, how...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent strength in U.S. soyoil and soymeal prices has helped push “board” crush margin (i.e., the margin implied or calculated by CBOT futures contracts) to new highs with the VVX margin hitting $1.62/bushel and the HHH margins topping the $1.45 mark for the first time in over a...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?
Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 11 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 11 October 2024 By Matt Herrington Vessel owners are still hoping for a rally in freight markets – as they have been since August – but the lack of upward momentum in rates has not delayed these hopes until November or December. Unfortunately for owners, how...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent strength in U.S. soyoil and soymeal prices has helped push “board” crush margin (i.e., the margin implied or calculated by CBOT futures contracts) to new highs with the VVX margin hitting $1.62/bushel and the HHH margins topping the $1.45 mark for the first time in over a...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?
Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...