Recent Biofuels Analysis
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...
Declining Glidepath for Ethanol
The coronavirus economic lockdown caused ethanol demand thus corn usage to plunge this year but the long-term shows a limited future for the biomass-based fuel. Using projections for all-electric and hybrid automobiles sales, Bloomberg analysts forecast a return to conventional internal combust...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...
Declining Glidepath for Ethanol
The coronavirus economic lockdown caused ethanol demand thus corn usage to plunge this year but the long-term shows a limited future for the biomass-based fuel. Using projections for all-electric and hybrid automobiles sales, Bloomberg analysts forecast a return to conventional internal combust...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...