Recent Biofuels Analysis
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
SREs; WASDE Livestock; COVID Politics
Reports leaked out of the Administration this week that President Trump has directed EPA to deny all of the so-called gap year small refinery exemption petitions. As we reported previously, the Department of Energy (DOE) has made recommendations on the 58 gap year petitions that were received e...
The Political/Economic Situation at Labor Day
Monday is the U.S. Labor Day holiday – it marks several things, including the nominal end of summer. With the end of summer comes a drop in gasoline demand (read ethanol) as vacation travel ends. There will be a temporary increase in meat demand for holiday barbecues, but then a seasonal...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced
Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...
Brazil Punts on Ethanol TRQ
Reports from Brazil indicate that the government is leaning toward extending the TRQ for U.S. ethanol imports for 90 days (the TRQ expired yesterday). There has been no official action yet. The expected extension is considered a compromise solution from President Bolsonaro. It would...
Biofuel Deadlines
The expiration and/or renewal date of the current TRQ for ethanol imports into Brazil is rapidly approaching; the current TRQ expires on 31 August. As we reported on 3 August, Brazil imposed a TRQ on ethanol in 2017. Last year the TRQ volume was increased from 150 million liters per quarter (60...
Ethanol Durability
Data from the first half of 2020 shows the pandemic’s impact on trade with U.S. agricultural exports down 3 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, there was a 4 percent drop in ethanol exports, which is a surprisingly small amount. While food demand changed, it mostly i...
Iowa: Biofuels Battleground
The latest polling from Iowa, per Monmouth University’s survey taken 30 July-3 August, shows President Trump with a three-point lead over Democratic nominee former Vice President Biden (48 percent to 45 percent). The margin is the same in the Senate race, with incumbent Republican Joni Er...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished higher in the wake of a WASDE report that featured record large U.S. corn and soybean yields. The report was not quite as bearish as pre-report expectations suggested, with ending stocks figures for corn and soybeans remaining in-line with historic norms. Additional support ca...
COVID Crushed Crushing
The National Oilseed Processors Association released a study today on the impact of COVID-19 on soybean crushers and farmers. The study shows that the value of soyoil dropped $1.5 billion from January through June, a 17.5 percent decline; meal dropped $220 million, which was a 1.4 percent decli...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
SREs; WASDE Livestock; COVID Politics
Reports leaked out of the Administration this week that President Trump has directed EPA to deny all of the so-called gap year small refinery exemption petitions. As we reported previously, the Department of Energy (DOE) has made recommendations on the 58 gap year petitions that were received e...
The Political/Economic Situation at Labor Day
Monday is the U.S. Labor Day holiday – it marks several things, including the nominal end of summer. With the end of summer comes a drop in gasoline demand (read ethanol) as vacation travel ends. There will be a temporary increase in meat demand for holiday barbecues, but then a seasonal...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced
Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...
Brazil Punts on Ethanol TRQ
Reports from Brazil indicate that the government is leaning toward extending the TRQ for U.S. ethanol imports for 90 days (the TRQ expired yesterday). There has been no official action yet. The expected extension is considered a compromise solution from President Bolsonaro. It would...
Biofuel Deadlines
The expiration and/or renewal date of the current TRQ for ethanol imports into Brazil is rapidly approaching; the current TRQ expires on 31 August. As we reported on 3 August, Brazil imposed a TRQ on ethanol in 2017. Last year the TRQ volume was increased from 150 million liters per quarter (60...
Ethanol Durability
Data from the first half of 2020 shows the pandemic’s impact on trade with U.S. agricultural exports down 3 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, there was a 4 percent drop in ethanol exports, which is a surprisingly small amount. While food demand changed, it mostly i...
Iowa: Biofuels Battleground
The latest polling from Iowa, per Monmouth University’s survey taken 30 July-3 August, shows President Trump with a three-point lead over Democratic nominee former Vice President Biden (48 percent to 45 percent). The margin is the same in the Senate race, with incumbent Republican Joni Er...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished higher in the wake of a WASDE report that featured record large U.S. corn and soybean yields. The report was not quite as bearish as pre-report expectations suggested, with ending stocks figures for corn and soybeans remaining in-line with historic norms. Additional support ca...
COVID Crushed Crushing
The National Oilseed Processors Association released a study today on the impact of COVID-19 on soybean crushers and farmers. The study shows that the value of soyoil dropped $1.5 billion from January through June, a 17.5 percent decline; meal dropped $220 million, which was a 1.4 percent decli...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...