Recent Biofuels Analysis
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building late last week anyway, the weekend news was sufficient to keep sellers at bay in nearly every commodity except soymeal. Soyoil, biodiesel and e...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...
White House Trouble with RFS Math
On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy” (click here). After a White House meeting yesterday with USDA and EPA, that plan may be announced next week with the President u...
Trade War’s Damage, or Not
The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically it will if it lasts a long time, but “damage” is a relative term. The U.S. grows a lot of soybeans (plus wheat and corn) because...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Shortage Threatens to Hurt Enthusiasm For 70th Anniversary Fears of a pork shortage are looming as China continues its game of tit-for-tat with the Trump administration while attempting to show strength in advance of the 70th anniversary recognizing the founding of the People&rsq...
Biofuel Comments Due Today, RFS Adding to Uncertainty
Today is the deadline for filing comments with EPA on the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for the 2020 RFS, and it comes as the Administration is promising to boost ethanol use, via a tweet from President Trump “The Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doi...
Market Commentary
The CBOT rallied today on hints that the Trump administration may be planning policy action to boost biofuels demand. There was no time frame given in U.S. Agriculture Secretary Perdue’s statement, but with the Trump administration actively looking to help farmers, there are few traders w...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy A TRUE PRISONER’S DILEMMA At last weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump’s public ruminating on the progress/overall success/exit strategy with respect to the trade dispute with President Xi and China revealed just how boxed in the hardliners in...
Ethanol: Wait Until Next Year
It has been a tough year for the ethanol industry. Volatile corn markets, EPA’s delay until the last minute on granting a year-round waiver for E15 that effectively prevented the market from taking advantage, and, of course, the small refinery waivers. But, another factor has...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Surges to Nearly RMB 21/kg China’s average live pig price set a new all-time high of RMB 20.92/kg ($2.98/kg) or RMB 9.49/lb. ($1.35/lb.) as of 14 August, a weekly gain of RMB 1.71/kg ($0.24/kg) or RMB 0.78/lb. ($0.11/lb.) that was the largest so far in 2019. It pu...
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building late last week anyway, the weekend news was sufficient to keep sellers at bay in nearly every commodity except soymeal. Soyoil, biodiesel and e...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...
White House Trouble with RFS Math
On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy” (click here). After a White House meeting yesterday with USDA and EPA, that plan may be announced next week with the President u...
Trade War’s Damage, or Not
The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically it will if it lasts a long time, but “damage” is a relative term. The U.S. grows a lot of soybeans (plus wheat and corn) because...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Shortage Threatens to Hurt Enthusiasm For 70th Anniversary Fears of a pork shortage are looming as China continues its game of tit-for-tat with the Trump administration while attempting to show strength in advance of the 70th anniversary recognizing the founding of the People&rsq...
Biofuel Comments Due Today, RFS Adding to Uncertainty
Today is the deadline for filing comments with EPA on the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for the 2020 RFS, and it comes as the Administration is promising to boost ethanol use, via a tweet from President Trump “The Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doi...
Market Commentary
The CBOT rallied today on hints that the Trump administration may be planning policy action to boost biofuels demand. There was no time frame given in U.S. Agriculture Secretary Perdue’s statement, but with the Trump administration actively looking to help farmers, there are few traders w...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy A TRUE PRISONER’S DILEMMA At last weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump’s public ruminating on the progress/overall success/exit strategy with respect to the trade dispute with President Xi and China revealed just how boxed in the hardliners in...
Ethanol: Wait Until Next Year
It has been a tough year for the ethanol industry. Volatile corn markets, EPA’s delay until the last minute on granting a year-round waiver for E15 that effectively prevented the market from taking advantage, and, of course, the small refinery waivers. But, another factor has...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Surges to Nearly RMB 21/kg China’s average live pig price set a new all-time high of RMB 20.92/kg ($2.98/kg) or RMB 9.49/lb. ($1.35/lb.) as of 14 August, a weekly gain of RMB 1.71/kg ($0.24/kg) or RMB 0.78/lb. ($0.11/lb.) that was the largest so far in 2019. It pu...