Recent Biofuels Analysis
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
EPA Biofuel Rules on the Way: Impact of E15 and Reset
The EPA has promised to have the waiver to allow year-round E15 use in place by the beginning of the summer driving season (1 June-15 September), which is when it is restricted under current regulations. An agency spokeswoman confirmed on 15 May that “EPA will finalize the rule before the...
Renewable Diesel: Better and Eventually Bigger?
There is an ongoing shift in the biofuels market toward more renewable diesel, which at some point will start to put a squeeze on traditional biomass-based diesel. The distinctions between the fuels are subtle but important. In fact, it’s important enough that the U.S. Energy Information...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
2020 Proposed RFS Volumes Up Slightly
Last week the EPA sent its proposed rule on 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for final review. The proposal provides for modest increases in biofuel volumes. Under the RFS, conventional ethanol is capped...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Ethanol Overview
The U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA) today released the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which maintains its estimate of ethanol use in 2019 at 14.53 billion gallons but trims the forecast for 2020 about 0.4 percent to 14.55 billion gallons (949,000 barrels/day). On a marketing...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as its approach to building new international relationships also highlighted its overseas agricultural investment...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends March Economic Data Points to Effects of Stimulus and ASF In response to a sharp economic slowdown and the ongoing impact of the trade war with the U.S., China launched a series of stimulative measures at the end of 2018. After a tepid January and February, the country’s econ...
Ethanol Growth Faces Mixed Bag of RFS Regulations
According to data released late last week, the EPA has granted one additional small refinery exemption (SRE) for 2017 and received three more SRE requests for 2018 since the last reported update (see table below for current counts). The additional SRE for 2017 was from a very small refinery as...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
EPA Biofuel Rules on the Way: Impact of E15 and Reset
The EPA has promised to have the waiver to allow year-round E15 use in place by the beginning of the summer driving season (1 June-15 September), which is when it is restricted under current regulations. An agency spokeswoman confirmed on 15 May that “EPA will finalize the rule before the...
Renewable Diesel: Better and Eventually Bigger?
There is an ongoing shift in the biofuels market toward more renewable diesel, which at some point will start to put a squeeze on traditional biomass-based diesel. The distinctions between the fuels are subtle but important. In fact, it’s important enough that the U.S. Energy Information...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
2020 Proposed RFS Volumes Up Slightly
Last week the EPA sent its proposed rule on 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for final review. The proposal provides for modest increases in biofuel volumes. Under the RFS, conventional ethanol is capped...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Ethanol Overview
The U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA) today released the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which maintains its estimate of ethanol use in 2019 at 14.53 billion gallons but trims the forecast for 2020 about 0.4 percent to 14.55 billion gallons (949,000 barrels/day). On a marketing...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as its approach to building new international relationships also highlighted its overseas agricultural investment...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends March Economic Data Points to Effects of Stimulus and ASF In response to a sharp economic slowdown and the ongoing impact of the trade war with the U.S., China launched a series of stimulative measures at the end of 2018. After a tepid January and February, the country’s econ...
Ethanol Growth Faces Mixed Bag of RFS Regulations
According to data released late last week, the EPA has granted one additional small refinery exemption (SRE) for 2017 and received three more SRE requests for 2018 since the last reported update (see table below for current counts). The additional SRE for 2017 was from a very small refinery as...