Recent Biofuels Analysis
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Production Up; Prices Nose-Dive As noted in earlier reports, India’s sugar production in sugar year 2017/18 (November-October) is expected to reach 32 MMT, and that is having an effect on ethanol production. The latter is now expected to total 3.11 billion liters (0.822 bill...
Market Commentary
The overnight market did not seem to know how to take the results of the Trump/Kim Jong Un meeting in Singapore. It ended with an announced agreement to denuclearize North Korea and for the U.S. to cease joint military exercises with South Korea. As always, the “devil is in the details,&r...
Trends Underlying Biofuel Use
With the Senate Agriculture Committee’s markup of the farm bill tomorrow morning, a number of amendments are being prepared. This includes one from Senator Deb Fischer (R-Nebraska) that would legislatively mandate a waiver for summertime use of E15. President Trump has already pledged to...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Oilseed Sector; EU Rapeseed
Brazil’s Conab Raises Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today raised its estimate for that country’s 2018 soybean crop from 117 MMT to 118.05 MMT. This resulted from the increase in the average yield to a record 3.359 MT/hectare (49.9 bushels/acre). For...
Ethanol Snapshot
One month ago today, the EPA sent its proposed rule for the 2019 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuel use to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a final sign-off. The OMB review is the last step before the RVO rule is published in the Federal Register for public comment. OMB...
Market Commentary
Profit taking, good weather and zero technical support left the CBOT to trade lower today with only corn managing to close a few cents higher. With the ongoing trade issues and increasingly high odds of good U.S. corn and soybean crops again, bullish news is tough to come by. Brazil’s sec...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Exceeds Estimates; Open Market Prices Drop As of 4 June 2018, 34.724 MMT of wheat had been procured for 2018/19 by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies, 8.51 percent more than the government of India’s (GOI’s) fixed target of 32 MMT. For reference...
Market Commentary
Futures were higher overnight after the Wall Street Journal reported that China had agreed to purchase $70 billion of U.S. energy and agriculture products. Once again, this amounted to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation, and corn and soybean futures turned lower this afterno...
RIN Trading and RFS Reallocation
With the Trump administration’s plan to reduce RIN prices expected to be released at any moment, it was timely that the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw its first trade of the D6 ethanol RINs futures contract. On 21 May, the exchange offered a monthly cash-settled future based on the O...
Deal Coming on Biofuels: Export RINs For E15
A number of lawmakers had been seeking an immediate waiver for E15 this summer, but the deadline for that has passed. E15 cannot be sold from 1 June to 15 September, and no such waiver was implemented by that start date. The administration, however, is expected to soon announce a deal tha...
Market Commentary
Today’s news was dominated by trade matters that potentially could be important for grain and soy markets. President Trump declared that beginning tomorrow (Friday), he would impose tariffs on steel (25 percent) and aluminum (10 percent) imports from Mexico, Canada and the EU that were ea...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Light trading volume gave way to slightly higher wheat prices, afternoon weakness in corn and lower closes in soybeans. The trade is reevaluating market fundamentals after the volatility of the past few trading days. American trade politics are increasingly volatile as well, with Mexico t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Production Up; Prices Nose-Dive As noted in earlier reports, India’s sugar production in sugar year 2017/18 (November-October) is expected to reach 32 MMT, and that is having an effect on ethanol production. The latter is now expected to total 3.11 billion liters (0.822 bill...
Market Commentary
The overnight market did not seem to know how to take the results of the Trump/Kim Jong Un meeting in Singapore. It ended with an announced agreement to denuclearize North Korea and for the U.S. to cease joint military exercises with South Korea. As always, the “devil is in the details,&r...
Trends Underlying Biofuel Use
With the Senate Agriculture Committee’s markup of the farm bill tomorrow morning, a number of amendments are being prepared. This includes one from Senator Deb Fischer (R-Nebraska) that would legislatively mandate a waiver for summertime use of E15. President Trump has already pledged to...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Oilseed Sector; EU Rapeseed
Brazil’s Conab Raises Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today raised its estimate for that country’s 2018 soybean crop from 117 MMT to 118.05 MMT. This resulted from the increase in the average yield to a record 3.359 MT/hectare (49.9 bushels/acre). For...
Ethanol Snapshot
One month ago today, the EPA sent its proposed rule for the 2019 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuel use to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a final sign-off. The OMB review is the last step before the RVO rule is published in the Federal Register for public comment. OMB...
Market Commentary
Profit taking, good weather and zero technical support left the CBOT to trade lower today with only corn managing to close a few cents higher. With the ongoing trade issues and increasingly high odds of good U.S. corn and soybean crops again, bullish news is tough to come by. Brazil’s sec...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Exceeds Estimates; Open Market Prices Drop As of 4 June 2018, 34.724 MMT of wheat had been procured for 2018/19 by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies, 8.51 percent more than the government of India’s (GOI’s) fixed target of 32 MMT. For reference...
Market Commentary
Futures were higher overnight after the Wall Street Journal reported that China had agreed to purchase $70 billion of U.S. energy and agriculture products. Once again, this amounted to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation, and corn and soybean futures turned lower this afterno...
RIN Trading and RFS Reallocation
With the Trump administration’s plan to reduce RIN prices expected to be released at any moment, it was timely that the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw its first trade of the D6 ethanol RINs futures contract. On 21 May, the exchange offered a monthly cash-settled future based on the O...
Deal Coming on Biofuels: Export RINs For E15
A number of lawmakers had been seeking an immediate waiver for E15 this summer, but the deadline for that has passed. E15 cannot be sold from 1 June to 15 September, and no such waiver was implemented by that start date. The administration, however, is expected to soon announce a deal tha...
Market Commentary
Today’s news was dominated by trade matters that potentially could be important for grain and soy markets. President Trump declared that beginning tomorrow (Friday), he would impose tariffs on steel (25 percent) and aluminum (10 percent) imports from Mexico, Canada and the EU that were ea...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Light trading volume gave way to slightly higher wheat prices, afternoon weakness in corn and lower closes in soybeans. The trade is reevaluating market fundamentals after the volatility of the past few trading days. American trade politics are increasingly volatile as well, with Mexico t...