Recent Biofuels Analysis
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The initial (and minimum) revenue insurance price for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop has now been determined. It is based on the daily average of the July 2019 Chicago and KC wheat futures between 15 August and 15 September. The price for hard red winter wheat is $5.74 versus last year’s...
It’s E15 Season Again
Yesterday was 16 September, which means that retailers can sell E15 again. Because of the evaporative volatility, it is not sold during the period of 1 June-15 September. However, the Trump administration is looking at granting a waiver for year-round sales, which could come prior to the Novemb...
RFS Issues Ahead
The EPA is busy with renewable fuel issues. It is reviewing comments on the proposed volume obligations for 2019, which will be finalized by 30 November, and considering a year-round waiver for E15 that it is expected to propose, perhaps before the 2018 elections. The agency is also dealing wit...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Market Commentary
Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds into sellers despite some solid end user buying. Reports from farm country are that farmer sales are almost completely gone after the CBOT&rs...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Looking at RFS Waiver Reallocation
One of the most controversial EPA actions over the past year has been the granting of hardship waivers for small refiners. Biofuel groups have complained that the waivers have been a de facto reduction in the Required Volume Obligations (RVOs), which is accurate, and they pressed hard prior to...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade continued to be light in volume and devoid of excitement overnight with limited price movement. This dull pattern carried over to the day session as well. Wheat futures moved lower during the day, a response to ongoing fund liquidation, the lack of export demand, and...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Truck Rates; Global Biodiesel Output; U.S. Soy Yield Forecast
Brazilian Farmers Squeezed by Higher Truck Freight Rates Farmers in Brazil’s Cerrados region have long been burdened by the high cost of shipping their soybeans to ports, mostly on trucks. However, they ae now being squeezed by new mandatory and much higher truck freight rates, which the...
Labor Day: Good News, Bad News for Ethanol Demand
A snapshot of the fuel market shows what could be the classic “good news, bad news” scenario for ethanol demand. The good news is that it’s Labor Day weekend and increased driving ratchets up motor fuel demand. Gasoline prices are higher as well, which increases blending margi...
Market Commentary
In recent years, the last week of August and/or the first week of September have been the best bets for the timing of seasonal lows for CME grain and soy futures prices. The reason for this is that for the last several years, prospects for very large harvests of corn and soybeans about to get u...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The initial (and minimum) revenue insurance price for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop has now been determined. It is based on the daily average of the July 2019 Chicago and KC wheat futures between 15 August and 15 September. The price for hard red winter wheat is $5.74 versus last year’s...
It’s E15 Season Again
Yesterday was 16 September, which means that retailers can sell E15 again. Because of the evaporative volatility, it is not sold during the period of 1 June-15 September. However, the Trump administration is looking at granting a waiver for year-round sales, which could come prior to the Novemb...
RFS Issues Ahead
The EPA is busy with renewable fuel issues. It is reviewing comments on the proposed volume obligations for 2019, which will be finalized by 30 November, and considering a year-round waiver for E15 that it is expected to propose, perhaps before the 2018 elections. The agency is also dealing wit...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Market Commentary
Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds into sellers despite some solid end user buying. Reports from farm country are that farmer sales are almost completely gone after the CBOT&rs...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Looking at RFS Waiver Reallocation
One of the most controversial EPA actions over the past year has been the granting of hardship waivers for small refiners. Biofuel groups have complained that the waivers have been a de facto reduction in the Required Volume Obligations (RVOs), which is accurate, and they pressed hard prior to...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade continued to be light in volume and devoid of excitement overnight with limited price movement. This dull pattern carried over to the day session as well. Wheat futures moved lower during the day, a response to ongoing fund liquidation, the lack of export demand, and...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Truck Rates; Global Biodiesel Output; U.S. Soy Yield Forecast
Brazilian Farmers Squeezed by Higher Truck Freight Rates Farmers in Brazil’s Cerrados region have long been burdened by the high cost of shipping their soybeans to ports, mostly on trucks. However, they ae now being squeezed by new mandatory and much higher truck freight rates, which the...
Labor Day: Good News, Bad News for Ethanol Demand
A snapshot of the fuel market shows what could be the classic “good news, bad news” scenario for ethanol demand. The good news is that it’s Labor Day weekend and increased driving ratchets up motor fuel demand. Gasoline prices are higher as well, which increases blending margi...
Market Commentary
In recent years, the last week of August and/or the first week of September have been the best bets for the timing of seasonal lows for CME grain and soy futures prices. The reason for this is that for the last several years, prospects for very large harvests of corn and soybeans about to get u...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...