Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession
Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag
Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was well supported last week. The bearish USDA WASDE report didn’t have a strong impact on the cash prices in Russia and Ukraine. The domestic price in southern Russia rallied about $18/MT last week. In RUB expression, it is approaching the highs seen in...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s August 2018/19 estimate is for larger U.S. corn supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, up 356 million from the July projection. Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, North Dakota, and S...
The Bear is Back
USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected...
Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts
Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...
Market Commentary
At the end of the day, it was all about what USDA had to say. That turned out to be another bearish report on corn and, especially, soybeans. The wheat numbers were somewhat positive. Markets were hoping USDA would make just modest upward yield adjustments for corn and soybeans, but it didn&rsq...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was quiet as expected with traders looking to reduce risk and position in preparation for tomorrow’s mid-session WASDE release. Wheat and soybeans were lower overnight, but corn held on to small gains. Dalian soy complex and corn futures were once again quite strong, while...
Make it Transparent; Planting in 2019; Scale of Safety
Make it Transparent There is no word at this hour as to the outcome of today’s bilateral trade talks between Japan and the U.S. The talks are proceeding according to tradition – negotiations are held in secret until completed in order to avoid special interest group politics from in...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession
Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag
Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was well supported last week. The bearish USDA WASDE report didn’t have a strong impact on the cash prices in Russia and Ukraine. The domestic price in southern Russia rallied about $18/MT last week. In RUB expression, it is approaching the highs seen in...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s August 2018/19 estimate is for larger U.S. corn supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, up 356 million from the July projection. Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, North Dakota, and S...
The Bear is Back
USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected...
Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts
Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...
Market Commentary
At the end of the day, it was all about what USDA had to say. That turned out to be another bearish report on corn and, especially, soybeans. The wheat numbers were somewhat positive. Markets were hoping USDA would make just modest upward yield adjustments for corn and soybeans, but it didn&rsq...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was quiet as expected with traders looking to reduce risk and position in preparation for tomorrow’s mid-session WASDE release. Wheat and soybeans were lower overnight, but corn held on to small gains. Dalian soy complex and corn futures were once again quite strong, while...
Make it Transparent; Planting in 2019; Scale of Safety
Make it Transparent There is no word at this hour as to the outcome of today’s bilateral trade talks between Japan and the U.S. The talks are proceeding according to tradition – negotiations are held in secret until completed in order to avoid special interest group politics from in...