Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market had a weaker tone last week with the new crop harvest approaching and as export commitments for the first quarter of the new campaign are lower than a year ago at this time. The buyers/consumers in the major destinations are confused due to the conflicting rep...
Trade War Chapters Three and Four; NAFTA Dairy Confusion; Tech Solution
Trade War Chapters Three and Four President Trump’s “easy to win” trade war is heating up, and U.S. farm groups are beginning to push back against it. This week the Trump administration announced that it would apply 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of “industriall...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
Roadblock Italy; Lemon to a Knife Fight
Roadblock Italy The new Italian government says it will not ratify the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada. It is a major agreement, but the Italians say it does too little to protect their country’s specialty foods. This does not bode well for EU c...
FB: Boring Bipartisanship; Triangulating Trade Arrangement; Farm Policy Purpose
FB: Boring Bipartisanship The Senate Agriculture Committee approved its farm bill proposal by a vote of 20-1. Only Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley voted no, a bipartisan tradition for senators from that state. While the House version of the legislation, which failed in a floor vote, atte...
Market Commentary
The overnight market did not seem to know how to take the results of the Trump/Kim Jong Un meeting in Singapore. It ended with an announced agreement to denuclearize North Korea and for the U.S. to cease joint military exercises with South Korea. As always, the “devil is in the details,&r...
U.S.-Canada Road Forward; Limits of Tariffs; Real Ag Problems
U.S.-Canada Road Forward Donald Trump initially thought that U.S. agriculture was a problem for him since the sector was so paranoid about trade retaliation that it cried out loudly for him to “do no harm.” Now he has come to realize that it presents some of the best examples of pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA estimates this month that U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 will include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush for 2017/18. Higher global soybean production is partly offset by lower rapeseed an...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that World 2018/19 wheat supplies decrease this month by 1.2 million tons. Production declines in Russia, the EU, and Mexico did not fully offset by higher projected production in India and the United States. U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are increased this month on higher be...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria and Russia are said to be developing a shipping route between Tartus, Syria and Sebastopol, Crimea, mainly for the supply of grain to Syria but also for building materials. Syria will ship agricultural products to Sebastopol. “Rebe...
G6 Decision; Leveling the Playing Field; Peronist Pope; G7 Reaction; Leveraging Argentina
G6 Decision The G7 meeting did not go well - at least from everyone’s perspective except Donald Trump’s. It went exactly as he expected and intended. While the G6 lectured him on the benefits of post-WWII multilateralism, Trump relished being the G1 and succeeded in his negotiating...
Any USDA Surprises Tomorrow?
USDA will release its June WASDE (supply/demand) report tomorrow. Will there be any substantive surprises in tomorrow’s numbers? That is doubtful. It is more likely that markets will continue to worry more about all the various trade issues and the North Korean talks than changes in suppl...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market had a weaker tone last week with the new crop harvest approaching and as export commitments for the first quarter of the new campaign are lower than a year ago at this time. The buyers/consumers in the major destinations are confused due to the conflicting rep...
Trade War Chapters Three and Four; NAFTA Dairy Confusion; Tech Solution
Trade War Chapters Three and Four President Trump’s “easy to win” trade war is heating up, and U.S. farm groups are beginning to push back against it. This week the Trump administration announced that it would apply 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of “industriall...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
Roadblock Italy; Lemon to a Knife Fight
Roadblock Italy The new Italian government says it will not ratify the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada. It is a major agreement, but the Italians say it does too little to protect their country’s specialty foods. This does not bode well for EU c...
FB: Boring Bipartisanship; Triangulating Trade Arrangement; Farm Policy Purpose
FB: Boring Bipartisanship The Senate Agriculture Committee approved its farm bill proposal by a vote of 20-1. Only Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley voted no, a bipartisan tradition for senators from that state. While the House version of the legislation, which failed in a floor vote, atte...
Market Commentary
The overnight market did not seem to know how to take the results of the Trump/Kim Jong Un meeting in Singapore. It ended with an announced agreement to denuclearize North Korea and for the U.S. to cease joint military exercises with South Korea. As always, the “devil is in the details,&r...
U.S.-Canada Road Forward; Limits of Tariffs; Real Ag Problems
U.S.-Canada Road Forward Donald Trump initially thought that U.S. agriculture was a problem for him since the sector was so paranoid about trade retaliation that it cried out loudly for him to “do no harm.” Now he has come to realize that it presents some of the best examples of pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA estimates this month that U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 will include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush for 2017/18. Higher global soybean production is partly offset by lower rapeseed an...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that World 2018/19 wheat supplies decrease this month by 1.2 million tons. Production declines in Russia, the EU, and Mexico did not fully offset by higher projected production in India and the United States. U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are increased this month on higher be...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria and Russia are said to be developing a shipping route between Tartus, Syria and Sebastopol, Crimea, mainly for the supply of grain to Syria but also for building materials. Syria will ship agricultural products to Sebastopol. “Rebe...
G6 Decision; Leveling the Playing Field; Peronist Pope; G7 Reaction; Leveraging Argentina
G6 Decision The G7 meeting did not go well - at least from everyone’s perspective except Donald Trump’s. It went exactly as he expected and intended. While the G6 lectured him on the benefits of post-WWII multilateralism, Trump relished being the G1 and succeeded in his negotiating...
Any USDA Surprises Tomorrow?
USDA will release its June WASDE (supply/demand) report tomorrow. Will there be any substantive surprises in tomorrow’s numbers? That is doubtful. It is more likely that markets will continue to worry more about all the various trade issues and the North Korean talks than changes in suppl...