China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke
China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the satisfaction of critics. However, indications are that it will involve more than just the eye candy of some guaranteed product sales. Given Pre...
Summer Supply Destruction; Bilking Consumers; Chinese Gambling; Beef with Beef
Summer Supply Destruction The nomination of Andrew Wheeler to become the EPA administrator is being held hostage by a bipartisan and powerful group of senators unless the agency quickly approves summertime use of E15 ethanol blended fuel. The EPA initially blamed the government shutdown for slo...
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not; Politicizing EFSA
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not Newly-elected Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is a lean-right populist in the Donald Trump vein. This gives the two leaders a sense of camaraderie that may be reinforced if Bolsonaro visits Washington in the next few weeks. This has prompted speculation that the two gove...
Finnish Supply Destruction; Slaying the Nonsense; “Other” Wins/Worst Idea
Finnish Supply Destruction Commodity supply and demand forecasts almost uniformly forecast too much of the former and not enough of the latter. A similar situation in the past gave birth to the biofuels policy that turns agricultural commodities into transportation fuel. Unfortunately, USDA als...
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look
If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...
Leverage Causes Angst
Difficult negotiations go to the brink for a reason, and that dynamic is being revealed on numerous fronts. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting this week, but the Americans are downplaying prospects while raising new headaches. The U.S. Navy is steaming through the South China Sea, a...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic market was about 200 rubles ($3)/MT higher. Its exports are slowing significantly as the higher prices and unofficial export barriers are doing their job. The Egyptian GASC purchased 300 KMT last week...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the result of the numerous comments by various U.S. administration officials that the China trade deal isn’t done yet. There was virtually...
WASDE Soyoil
According to USDA: U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is estimated at 134.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from the previous report. Smaller soybean, canola, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by an increase for sunflowerseed. The soybean oil price forecast of 28.5 to 3...
WASDE Soymeal
According to USDA: The soybean crush forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 2,090 million. Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate. Lower supplies and increased crush are partly offset with a 25-million-bushel reduction in expo...
WASDE Soybeans
According to USDA: Soybean production is estimated at 4,544 million bushels, down 56 million. Harvested area is estimated at 88.1 million acres, down fractionally from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 51.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels, led by reductions for North Dak...
WASDE Corn
According to USDA: U.S. corn production is estimated at 14.420 billion bushels, down 206 million on reduction in yield to 176.4 bushels per acre. Harvested area is down fractionally. Corn use is down 165 million bushels to 14.865 billion. FSI use is lowered 40 million bushels, reflecting reduct...
China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke
China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the satisfaction of critics. However, indications are that it will involve more than just the eye candy of some guaranteed product sales. Given Pre...
Summer Supply Destruction; Bilking Consumers; Chinese Gambling; Beef with Beef
Summer Supply Destruction The nomination of Andrew Wheeler to become the EPA administrator is being held hostage by a bipartisan and powerful group of senators unless the agency quickly approves summertime use of E15 ethanol blended fuel. The EPA initially blamed the government shutdown for slo...
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not; Politicizing EFSA
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not Newly-elected Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is a lean-right populist in the Donald Trump vein. This gives the two leaders a sense of camaraderie that may be reinforced if Bolsonaro visits Washington in the next few weeks. This has prompted speculation that the two gove...
Finnish Supply Destruction; Slaying the Nonsense; “Other” Wins/Worst Idea
Finnish Supply Destruction Commodity supply and demand forecasts almost uniformly forecast too much of the former and not enough of the latter. A similar situation in the past gave birth to the biofuels policy that turns agricultural commodities into transportation fuel. Unfortunately, USDA als...
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look
If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...
Leverage Causes Angst
Difficult negotiations go to the brink for a reason, and that dynamic is being revealed on numerous fronts. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting this week, but the Americans are downplaying prospects while raising new headaches. The U.S. Navy is steaming through the South China Sea, a...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic market was about 200 rubles ($3)/MT higher. Its exports are slowing significantly as the higher prices and unofficial export barriers are doing their job. The Egyptian GASC purchased 300 KMT last week...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the result of the numerous comments by various U.S. administration officials that the China trade deal isn’t done yet. There was virtually...
WASDE Soyoil
According to USDA: U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is estimated at 134.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from the previous report. Smaller soybean, canola, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by an increase for sunflowerseed. The soybean oil price forecast of 28.5 to 3...
WASDE Soymeal
According to USDA: The soybean crush forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 2,090 million. Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate. Lower supplies and increased crush are partly offset with a 25-million-bushel reduction in expo...
WASDE Soybeans
According to USDA: Soybean production is estimated at 4,544 million bushels, down 56 million. Harvested area is estimated at 88.1 million acres, down fractionally from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 51.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels, led by reductions for North Dak...
WASDE Corn
According to USDA: U.S. corn production is estimated at 14.420 billion bushels, down 206 million on reduction in yield to 176.4 bushels per acre. Harvested area is down fractionally. Corn use is down 165 million bushels to 14.865 billion. FSI use is lowered 40 million bushels, reflecting reduct...