Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey
Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 6 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Europe and Deforestation; Strong Brazilian Real
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil had good success in making export sales in the week ending 30 July. The larger sales likely portend large sales of the commodities in coming weeks. Net soybean export sale...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies
Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...
Malt Prices Rising
The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Pesticide Hesitancy; Unintended Slippage
Pesticide Hesitancy Vaccine hesitancy is the polite characterization of those who refuse vaccinations against disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) categorizes anti-vaxxers as one of the top ten health threats. The WHO’s sister agency, the Food & Agriculture Organization,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission’s MARS unit cut its forecast of the EU soft wheat yield to 5.54 MT/ha, down from earlier estimates of 5.6 MT/ha. The agency increased its yield expectations for most other crops, however, including corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. Thi...
Recession Impacts on Trade
Both the U.S. and Europe reported this week that the coronavirus pandemic sent their respective economies into the deepest plunge on record. A look at the impact of the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession for potential implications on agricultural markets from the current pandemic may or may not...
Economic Recovery and Quit the Race; Grain Monopolization
Economic Recovery and Quit the Race A Nikkei survey of 145 Japanese company CEO’s found that a majority believe it will take at least two years to economically recover from the coronavirus. Basically, 38 percent said it will take two years and 17.8 percent said it will take even longer th...
Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey
Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 6 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Europe and Deforestation; Strong Brazilian Real
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil had good success in making export sales in the week ending 30 July. The larger sales likely portend large sales of the commodities in coming weeks. Net soybean export sale...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies
Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...
Malt Prices Rising
The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Pesticide Hesitancy; Unintended Slippage
Pesticide Hesitancy Vaccine hesitancy is the polite characterization of those who refuse vaccinations against disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) categorizes anti-vaxxers as one of the top ten health threats. The WHO’s sister agency, the Food & Agriculture Organization,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission’s MARS unit cut its forecast of the EU soft wheat yield to 5.54 MT/ha, down from earlier estimates of 5.6 MT/ha. The agency increased its yield expectations for most other crops, however, including corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. Thi...
Recession Impacts on Trade
Both the U.S. and Europe reported this week that the coronavirus pandemic sent their respective economies into the deepest plunge on record. A look at the impact of the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession for potential implications on agricultural markets from the current pandemic may or may not...
Economic Recovery and Quit the Race; Grain Monopolization
Economic Recovery and Quit the Race A Nikkei survey of 145 Japanese company CEO’s found that a majority believe it will take at least two years to economically recover from the coronavirus. Basically, 38 percent said it will take two years and 17.8 percent said it will take even longer th...