Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 August 2019 Domestic prices moved in different directions: rising in regions where they had decreased too much the week before and dropping in those that started quoting for 2019 production. Meanwhile, there was little change in other regions. The fact that harvesting...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia is adjusting its wheat import requirements for implementation as of the next tender. Traders expect that a change in the bug damage limitation will allow Russia to take a large share of the Saudi wheat business, particularly since...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...
WASDE Corn
USDA reports for August 2019: Larger supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, up 26 million from the July projection as a decline in harvested acres is virtually offset by an increase in yield. The seaso...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 August 2019 Domestic prices moved in different directions: rising in regions where they had decreased too much the week before and dropping in those that started quoting for 2019 production. Meanwhile, there was little change in other regions. The fact that harvesting...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia is adjusting its wheat import requirements for implementation as of the next tender. Traders expect that a change in the bug damage limitation will allow Russia to take a large share of the Saudi wheat business, particularly since...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...
WASDE Corn
USDA reports for August 2019: Larger supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, up 26 million from the July projection as a decline in harvested acres is virtually offset by an increase in yield. The seaso...