Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?
New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...
Transatlantic Miscalculations
Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)
Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)
Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...
China Purchasing Loophole; China Deal Worsens Transatlantic; USMCA Victory
China Purchasing Loophole First, it is important to reemphasize the point made in yesterday’s report that the key achievement in the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China is in the technical language. Unlike any other trade agreement, this one contains explicit contractual terms...
Return to Managed Trade
Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...
Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations; Subsidies Agreement; Future of Futures
Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations The actual text of a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and China is supposed to be released tomorrow, although key parts will be missing. Thus far, information about the agreement has been the verbal spin of Trump Administration officials. One point m...
Politics and Policy for Ag in 2020
If there is any doubt whether or not agriculture is a key constituency for Republicans generally, and the President specifically, in 2020, consider that the White House has scheduled President Trump to address the American Farm Bureau Federation convention which convenes this weekend for the th...
Plant Protection Ban Going Backwards; Anti-Trade Going Backwards; WASDE Mixed, Iowa Outcome?
Plant Protection Ban Going Backwards Politicians in different countries have called for bans on different plant protection chemicals and especially on the herbicide glyphosate, but use is continuing and even increasing. Sri Lanka banned glyphosate but then had to reinstate its use on its major...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Weather conditions in Bulgaria turned negative for winter crops last week. After a warmer-than-normal December and first week of January, last week saw significantly colder temperatures amid low soil moisture availability. The combination of dry and cold conditions has kept winter...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soymeal price is reduced $5.00 to $305.00 per short ton. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook is for U.S. soybean supplies being relatively unchanged as lower beginning stocks and imports offset higher production. With crush and export forecasts unchanged, the ending stocks projection remains unchanged at 475 million bushels. The average U.S. yield estimate wa...
Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?
New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...
Transatlantic Miscalculations
Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)
Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)
Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...
China Purchasing Loophole; China Deal Worsens Transatlantic; USMCA Victory
China Purchasing Loophole First, it is important to reemphasize the point made in yesterday’s report that the key achievement in the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China is in the technical language. Unlike any other trade agreement, this one contains explicit contractual terms...
Return to Managed Trade
Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...
Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations; Subsidies Agreement; Future of Futures
Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations The actual text of a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and China is supposed to be released tomorrow, although key parts will be missing. Thus far, information about the agreement has been the verbal spin of Trump Administration officials. One point m...
Politics and Policy for Ag in 2020
If there is any doubt whether or not agriculture is a key constituency for Republicans generally, and the President specifically, in 2020, consider that the White House has scheduled President Trump to address the American Farm Bureau Federation convention which convenes this weekend for the th...
Plant Protection Ban Going Backwards; Anti-Trade Going Backwards; WASDE Mixed, Iowa Outcome?
Plant Protection Ban Going Backwards Politicians in different countries have called for bans on different plant protection chemicals and especially on the herbicide glyphosate, but use is continuing and even increasing. Sri Lanka banned glyphosate but then had to reinstate its use on its major...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Weather conditions in Bulgaria turned negative for winter crops last week. After a warmer-than-normal December and first week of January, last week saw significantly colder temperatures amid low soil moisture availability. The combination of dry and cold conditions has kept winter...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soymeal price is reduced $5.00 to $305.00 per short ton. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook is for U.S. soybean supplies being relatively unchanged as lower beginning stocks and imports offset higher production. With crush and export forecasts unchanged, the ending stocks projection remains unchanged at 475 million bushels. The average U.S. yield estimate wa...