Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.4 from...
Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
PM Post - Modest Comeback to Continue
THE OPEN November beans: 5 3/4 higher December meal: 1.50 higher December soyoil; 19 higher December corn: 1 1/2 higher December wheat: 1 1/2 higher The markets opened as called with higher trade as more buyers entered the bean market on the back of more business...
Technical Views - Corn Oversold?
SPREADS November crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare is 33.26 percent. Corn spreads stabilize with Dec 19/Dec 20 trading to 32 3/4c from lows of 34c, and an inverse before the Aug. 12 report. Dec/March corn tightens to 12 1/4c from 12 1/2c. Sep/Dec corn firms back into 10 1/...
AM Outlook - Watch Out for the Bear Trap
GOOD MORNING, The commitment-of-trader's report will be out tonight. Will it show that the managed money funds flipped from a long to a short position in corn? If so, the position is probably not a large one, but it does represent a willingness on the part of the funds to be net sho...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...
China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives
China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.4 from...
Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
PM Post - Modest Comeback to Continue
THE OPEN November beans: 5 3/4 higher December meal: 1.50 higher December soyoil; 19 higher December corn: 1 1/2 higher December wheat: 1 1/2 higher The markets opened as called with higher trade as more buyers entered the bean market on the back of more business...
Technical Views - Corn Oversold?
SPREADS November crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare is 33.26 percent. Corn spreads stabilize with Dec 19/Dec 20 trading to 32 3/4c from lows of 34c, and an inverse before the Aug. 12 report. Dec/March corn tightens to 12 1/4c from 12 1/2c. Sep/Dec corn firms back into 10 1/...
AM Outlook - Watch Out for the Bear Trap
GOOD MORNING, The commitment-of-trader's report will be out tonight. Will it show that the managed money funds flipped from a long to a short position in corn? If so, the position is probably not a large one, but it does represent a willingness on the part of the funds to be net sho...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...
China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives
China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...