CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
The Economics of Flu
Inclusive Costs (NBER Working Paper No. 22137; March 2016): This study included former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and found that a large pandemic imposed the same inclusive economic costs as global warming - $570 billion/year. Collective Action (NBER Working Paper No. 17195; July 20...
Viral Opinion; Opposing Views
Viral Opinion A YouGov/Economist survey found that Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to be extremely concerned about the coronavirus. This started a twitter food fight over which party is dumber – the answer is they both are wrong. Affective polarization or negative feelings...
Hog Herd up 4 Percent; Pork Demand Unpredictable
USDA released the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday. Some topline highlights: Total swine inventory on 1 March was 77.6 million head, 104 percent of March 2019, but 99 percent of 1 December 2019. Market hogs were above pre-report expectations Breeding herd was below pre-report...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
PM Post - Mixed Day
THE OPEN May beans: 3 higher May meal: 3.80 higher May Soyoil: 2 lower May corn: 1 1/2 lower May wheat: 9 1/4 higher The market opened in line with trade expectations, as traders cleaned up positions into the weekend and report day next week. The markets were...
Technical Views - Buy Wheat; Sell Corn/Soyoil
SPREADS July crush trades at 1.17c/bu, still a very good margin, with oilshare firming slightly to 29.58%. The July/Nov bean inverse continues to consolidate from 6 3/4c to 5 1/2c. May/July beans trades from 4 1/2c to 4 3/4c. July/Dec corn trades from 13 1/4c to 14c carry.&nbs...
AM Outlook - Prepositioning
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning as the focus of the next two trading sessions will be setting up for the March 31 Planting Intentions report and Quarterly Stocks number. Wheat is higher as Russia's Ag Ministry said they have proposed grain export quotas, with the initial propo...
Global Deterioration
On the one hand, no country has greater experience with epidemics than China (Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, SARS, etc.), and because the nature of such communicable diseases in a globalized world leads to pandemics, Beijing is correct that cooperation is key to the solution. But no one seems quite...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
The Economics of Flu
Inclusive Costs (NBER Working Paper No. 22137; March 2016): This study included former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and found that a large pandemic imposed the same inclusive economic costs as global warming - $570 billion/year. Collective Action (NBER Working Paper No. 17195; July 20...
Viral Opinion; Opposing Views
Viral Opinion A YouGov/Economist survey found that Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to be extremely concerned about the coronavirus. This started a twitter food fight over which party is dumber – the answer is they both are wrong. Affective polarization or negative feelings...
Hog Herd up 4 Percent; Pork Demand Unpredictable
USDA released the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday. Some topline highlights: Total swine inventory on 1 March was 77.6 million head, 104 percent of March 2019, but 99 percent of 1 December 2019. Market hogs were above pre-report expectations Breeding herd was below pre-report...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
PM Post - Mixed Day
THE OPEN May beans: 3 higher May meal: 3.80 higher May Soyoil: 2 lower May corn: 1 1/2 lower May wheat: 9 1/4 higher The market opened in line with trade expectations, as traders cleaned up positions into the weekend and report day next week. The markets were...
Technical Views - Buy Wheat; Sell Corn/Soyoil
SPREADS July crush trades at 1.17c/bu, still a very good margin, with oilshare firming slightly to 29.58%. The July/Nov bean inverse continues to consolidate from 6 3/4c to 5 1/2c. May/July beans trades from 4 1/2c to 4 3/4c. July/Dec corn trades from 13 1/4c to 14c carry.&nbs...
AM Outlook - Prepositioning
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning as the focus of the next two trading sessions will be setting up for the March 31 Planting Intentions report and Quarterly Stocks number. Wheat is higher as Russia's Ag Ministry said they have proposed grain export quotas, with the initial propo...
Global Deterioration
On the one hand, no country has greater experience with epidemics than China (Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, SARS, etc.), and because the nature of such communicable diseases in a globalized world leads to pandemics, Beijing is correct that cooperation is key to the solution. But no one seems quite...