Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Monetary Policy Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this week; interest rates were last raised in July 2023, and during Q4 when rates were held steady markets were hopeful that was a signal that a rate cut would be coming in 2024. Right now, however, the Federal Funds Futures market...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.36/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8775/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Oilseed Highlights: Close but no Cigar
The Market The May soybean contract trade above $12 several times this week intrasession but could not hold that number at the daily close. Nonetheless, the close Friday at 1198.25/bushel was a 1.2 percent rise for the week. That is 6.1 percent above the February low of 1128.5/bushel. May soyoi...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.9825/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $334.7/short ton, down $2.7 fr...
Crop Program Payment Estimates for 2024
Today, sign-up for the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs closes; without a new farm bill, no changes have been made to either program. Producers can choose between the price triggered PLC and the revenue triggered ARC. ARC comes in two forms, ARC County (ARC-CO) and...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 1-7, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 83,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024--a marketing-year low--were down 69 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 453,500 MT were up 23 percent from the previous we...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.9525/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $337.4/short ton, up $1 f...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Monetary Policy Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this week; interest rates were last raised in July 2023, and during Q4 when rates were held steady markets were hopeful that was a signal that a rate cut would be coming in 2024. Right now, however, the Federal Funds Futures market...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.36/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8775/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Oilseed Highlights: Close but no Cigar
The Market The May soybean contract trade above $12 several times this week intrasession but could not hold that number at the daily close. Nonetheless, the close Friday at 1198.25/bushel was a 1.2 percent rise for the week. That is 6.1 percent above the February low of 1128.5/bushel. May soyoi...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.9825/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $334.7/short ton, down $2.7 fr...
Crop Program Payment Estimates for 2024
Today, sign-up for the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs closes; without a new farm bill, no changes have been made to either program. Producers can choose between the price triggered PLC and the revenue triggered ARC. ARC comes in two forms, ARC County (ARC-CO) and...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 1-7, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 83,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024--a marketing-year low--were down 69 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 453,500 MT were up 23 percent from the previous we...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.9525/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $337.4/short ton, up $1 f...