Policy Round Up: COVID Legislation; Aluminum Tariffs; Restaurant Performance
COVID Relief: Today was the target deadline for the next COVID relief package; that is not going to happen. Neither the Senate or House was in session today but are subject to a one-day recall back for a vote if necessary. Negotiations continue but progress is not being made. The hang-ups are t...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.955/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.675/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, down $1.6...
Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey
Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...
PM Post - On the Defensive
THE OPEN November beans: 1 lower December meal: .20 lower December soyoil: 23 lower December corn: 1/2 lower September wheat: 3 lower The markets opened defensively and continued to head lower despite the announcement of beans sold to China. Funds are liquidating b...
WASDE Probability
The adage is that big crops get bigger – meaning USDA uses trendline yields for forecasting. But as evidence gathers that weather has been kindly, each successive WASDE report tends to increase the production outlook. Of course, some years the yields are reduced but no one is expecting th...
Technical Views - Mixed Day Ahead
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 91.62c/bu while oilshare trades at 25.32%. The nearby corn spread Sep/Dec widens out to 12 1/2c from 12 1/4c, and values that were 10 3/4c at the start of the week. Dec/Dec corn trades from 39c to 39 1/4c. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 6 3/4c out to 7...
AM Outlook Uncertainties
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, though all are sitting close to trading range lows except soyoil. The uncertainties of upcoming trade talks between China and the U.S. plus large crops continue to weigh on beans. Officials in the Trump administration are reportedly...
The Global Future
Politicians can make a mess of things, but policymakers typically seek to solve problems. Politicians proclaim a new cold war between China and the U.S.; policymakers see it as a dysfunctional historical period that must be led back to equilibrium. The Chinese are happy with their...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Market Commentary: Setting Records
Records are being set in lots of places and not in a good way if you are a bull. There will be record wheat in Canada and India and projected record corn and soybean crops next season in Brazil. Farmers not selling now to clean out bins are ignoring the fact that seasonal lows may not yet be hi...
Policy Round Up: COVID Legislation; Aluminum Tariffs; Restaurant Performance
COVID Relief: Today was the target deadline for the next COVID relief package; that is not going to happen. Neither the Senate or House was in session today but are subject to a one-day recall back for a vote if necessary. Negotiations continue but progress is not being made. The hang-ups are t...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.955/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.675/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, down $1.6...
Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey
Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...
PM Post - On the Defensive
THE OPEN November beans: 1 lower December meal: .20 lower December soyoil: 23 lower December corn: 1/2 lower September wheat: 3 lower The markets opened defensively and continued to head lower despite the announcement of beans sold to China. Funds are liquidating b...
WASDE Probability
The adage is that big crops get bigger – meaning USDA uses trendline yields for forecasting. But as evidence gathers that weather has been kindly, each successive WASDE report tends to increase the production outlook. Of course, some years the yields are reduced but no one is expecting th...
Technical Views - Mixed Day Ahead
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 91.62c/bu while oilshare trades at 25.32%. The nearby corn spread Sep/Dec widens out to 12 1/2c from 12 1/4c, and values that were 10 3/4c at the start of the week. Dec/Dec corn trades from 39c to 39 1/4c. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 6 3/4c out to 7...
AM Outlook Uncertainties
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, though all are sitting close to trading range lows except soyoil. The uncertainties of upcoming trade talks between China and the U.S. plus large crops continue to weigh on beans. Officials in the Trump administration are reportedly...
The Global Future
Politicians can make a mess of things, but policymakers typically seek to solve problems. Politicians proclaim a new cold war between China and the U.S.; policymakers see it as a dysfunctional historical period that must be led back to equilibrium. The Chinese are happy with their...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Market Commentary: Setting Records
Records are being set in lots of places and not in a good way if you are a bull. There will be record wheat in Canada and India and projected record corn and soybean crops next season in Brazil. Farmers not selling now to clean out bins are ignoring the fact that seasonal lows may not yet be hi...