Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire
The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...
A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways
There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...
ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act
ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.75/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $342.1/short ton, up $6.8 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
PM Post - Profit-taking
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 3.50 higher December soyoil: 7 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: 2 1/4 higher Prices opened as expected with soyoil futures trading into the red at the start of the day and overbought charts prompting ea...
AM Outlook - Buying the Open
GOOD MORNING, The charts continue to throw off bullish technical signals, so the funds are buying the open and running with it. The continuing reports of Chinese business has its corollary year based in 2016, also a very big bean buying year that saw the bean/corn ratio strengthen through...
Technical Views - Technically Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 92.15c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.24%. Dec/March corn trades to 8 1/4c from 8 3/4c, while Dec/Dec narrows to 11 1/2c from 15c. Nov/Jan beans trades back into 2 3/4c from 3 3/4c, while Jan/March inverts to 9 1/2c from 7c. Dec wheat/corn trades fr...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
Post-November Economy; Disparate Fears
Post-November Economy Fiscal recklessness has its limit, and this will come home to roost. Having already borrowed and spent $3 trillion to revive the COVID-coma economy, Congressional Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion subsidizing states and cities, and Democratic presidential candi...
Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire
The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...
A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways
There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...
ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act
ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.75/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $342.1/short ton, up $6.8 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
PM Post - Profit-taking
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 3.50 higher December soyoil: 7 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: 2 1/4 higher Prices opened as expected with soyoil futures trading into the red at the start of the day and overbought charts prompting ea...
AM Outlook - Buying the Open
GOOD MORNING, The charts continue to throw off bullish technical signals, so the funds are buying the open and running with it. The continuing reports of Chinese business has its corollary year based in 2016, also a very big bean buying year that saw the bean/corn ratio strengthen through...
Technical Views - Technically Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 92.15c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.24%. Dec/March corn trades to 8 1/4c from 8 3/4c, while Dec/Dec narrows to 11 1/2c from 15c. Nov/Jan beans trades back into 2 3/4c from 3 3/4c, while Jan/March inverts to 9 1/2c from 7c. Dec wheat/corn trades fr...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
Post-November Economy; Disparate Fears
Post-November Economy Fiscal recklessness has its limit, and this will come home to roost. Having already borrowed and spent $3 trillion to revive the COVID-coma economy, Congressional Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion subsidizing states and cities, and Democratic presidential candi...