Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
Smile! $4.00 Corn Futures Ahead?
The options market has correctly foreseen corn futures’ march higher since mid-September and is signaling this rally isn’t over year. The corn and SRW wheat markets are leaning bullish while the implied volatilities from soybeans offer a more neutral outlook. For live cattle futures...
Things Aren’t So Great in Brazil Either
There are stories almost daily about how low prices are causing pain for farmers across the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute is an issue in some Farm Belt states because it has driven soybean prices down. Corn and wheat also dropped in sympathy with soybeans. However, U.S farmers ha...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
Cattle on Feed
The cattle on feed (COF) inventory as of 1 October set a record for the month at 11.4 million head, which was also the fifth consecutive new monthly record and the 21st month in a row that the total was larger than the year before. As noted here prior to the report, September placements were e...
ASEM Reality; Derivative Oversight; Glyphobiasate
ASEM Reality EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Federica Mogherini says this week’s Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) to promote liberalized trade and climate change reduction was not an anti-Trump meeting, although she clearly instigated the agenda. The fact remains that except for Australia and N...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
Barley and Climate Change
A recent article in Ars Technica (click here) must have received wide circulation across social media as several people forwarded it to this analyst, presumably because the topic was malting barley and beer or, actually, the lack thereof. In it, the writer referenced the conclusion of a ne...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.67/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.5675/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $313.1/short ton, down $3...
Cattle on Feed
USSA reported U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent: Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.4 million head on October 1, 2018. The inventory was 5 percent above October 1, 2017. This is the highest October 1...
What Lies Ahead for USMCA ?
If all goes as expected, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is the renegotiated trade pact formerly known as NAFTA, will be officially signed by the three countries on 30 November. That is first day the U.S. can do so under its procedures and the last day Mexico’s outg...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 476,000 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 40 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 382,500 MT for 2018/2019--a marketing-year low--were down 62 percent from the previous wee...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
Smile! $4.00 Corn Futures Ahead?
The options market has correctly foreseen corn futures’ march higher since mid-September and is signaling this rally isn’t over year. The corn and SRW wheat markets are leaning bullish while the implied volatilities from soybeans offer a more neutral outlook. For live cattle futures...
Things Aren’t So Great in Brazil Either
There are stories almost daily about how low prices are causing pain for farmers across the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute is an issue in some Farm Belt states because it has driven soybean prices down. Corn and wheat also dropped in sympathy with soybeans. However, U.S farmers ha...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
Cattle on Feed
The cattle on feed (COF) inventory as of 1 October set a record for the month at 11.4 million head, which was also the fifth consecutive new monthly record and the 21st month in a row that the total was larger than the year before. As noted here prior to the report, September placements were e...
ASEM Reality; Derivative Oversight; Glyphobiasate
ASEM Reality EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Federica Mogherini says this week’s Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) to promote liberalized trade and climate change reduction was not an anti-Trump meeting, although she clearly instigated the agenda. The fact remains that except for Australia and N...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
Barley and Climate Change
A recent article in Ars Technica (click here) must have received wide circulation across social media as several people forwarded it to this analyst, presumably because the topic was malting barley and beer or, actually, the lack thereof. In it, the writer referenced the conclusion of a ne...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.67/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.5675/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $313.1/short ton, down $3...
Cattle on Feed
USSA reported U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent: Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.4 million head on October 1, 2018. The inventory was 5 percent above October 1, 2017. This is the highest October 1...
What Lies Ahead for USMCA ?
If all goes as expected, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is the renegotiated trade pact formerly known as NAFTA, will be officially signed by the three countries on 30 November. That is first day the U.S. can do so under its procedures and the last day Mexico’s outg...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 476,000 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 40 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 382,500 MT for 2018/2019--a marketing-year low--were down 62 percent from the previous wee...