World Perspectives

Recent Policy Analysis

Post-Trump Outcomes; Food but Not Income; Between Elephants

Post-Trump Outcomes Analysts in Washington are war gaming the possible aftermath of next Tuesday’s presidential election and finding nothing good. On the one hand, if Mr. Trump wins reelection, the “swamp” as he likes to call it, predicts a newly emboldened incumbent White Hou...

Post-Election Dynamics

Odds are that Joe Biden becomes the next U.S. President, which prompts some understanding of its implications for the agriculture sector.  Trade: The change in the chief executive will have less impact on the trade policy agenda than foreign governments would like to assume. Mr. Trump adop...

livestock

China Phase One and Hog Inventory

Today, USDA released the latest interim report from USDA and USTR on the Phase One China trade agreement. The report notes that “Chapter Three of the Phase One Agreement contains concrete, specific commitments to reduce and eliminate structural, non-tariff barriers to U.S. agriculture in...

China versus USA; Post-COVID Attitude

Respondents to our last survey regarding the advantages of China versus the USA could have been skewed by the nationality of respondents. One interpretation (see graph below) is that China has some large advantages, but the USA has collectively more smaller ones, all of which adds up to a split...

WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent; EU Food Fun

WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent Bad: The U.S. Congressional Research Service has concluded that trade war payments and COVID relief payments to farmers have likely exceeded WTO limits on such cash transfers. U.S. officials retort that that they are legal. However, the real problem is that the U.S. has...

COVID II Policy; Meet Meat; Needing Liberalization

COVID II Policy Financial markets continue to be confused about the direction of the economy amidst a new surge in COVID cases and political uncertainty. The U.S. jobless claims report this morning was lower than expected while September existing home sales were strong. But the job market is de...

Future Volatility; Special Goose

Future Volatility As if the past few years have not been tumultuous enough, markets must now brace for what could be intensified volatility in the weeks ahead. No matter which side loses in next month’s U.S. elections, there is likely to be a lot of political angst and outrage. While the...

CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments

CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...

Economic Recovery Officially V-Shaped

On 29 October, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) issues the Q3 2020 GDP report, it likely will show the economy grew at more than 33 percent, based on a string of very positive economic reports since July. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains its GDP “NowCast” whic...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Brazil’s Corn and Soy Tariffs; Trade Facilitation

On Friday we commented on Brazil’s livestock and poultry demand potential for DDGS co-produced by the growing trend of corn ethanol production in Brazil. Producers are discovering that DDGS are cheaper than soymeal and help with feeding margins. That afternoon, the economy ministry of Bra...

Denuded Logic; Tax Consequences

Denuded Logic A key argument by some Europeans in both opposing palm oil imports, voting against a trade agreement with Brazil, and seeking self-sufficiency in plant proteins is deforestation. Politicians are reminded that Brazil’s rainforests are the earth’s “lungs” and...

Friday Intrigue

Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...

Post-Trump Outcomes; Food but Not Income; Between Elephants

Post-Trump Outcomes Analysts in Washington are war gaming the possible aftermath of next Tuesday’s presidential election and finding nothing good. On the one hand, if Mr. Trump wins reelection, the “swamp” as he likes to call it, predicts a newly emboldened incumbent White Hou...

Post-Election Dynamics

Odds are that Joe Biden becomes the next U.S. President, which prompts some understanding of its implications for the agriculture sector.  Trade: The change in the chief executive will have less impact on the trade policy agenda than foreign governments would like to assume. Mr. Trump adop...

livestock

China Phase One and Hog Inventory

Today, USDA released the latest interim report from USDA and USTR on the Phase One China trade agreement. The report notes that “Chapter Three of the Phase One Agreement contains concrete, specific commitments to reduce and eliminate structural, non-tariff barriers to U.S. agriculture in...

China versus USA; Post-COVID Attitude

Respondents to our last survey regarding the advantages of China versus the USA could have been skewed by the nationality of respondents. One interpretation (see graph below) is that China has some large advantages, but the USA has collectively more smaller ones, all of which adds up to a split...

WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent; EU Food Fun

WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent Bad: The U.S. Congressional Research Service has concluded that trade war payments and COVID relief payments to farmers have likely exceeded WTO limits on such cash transfers. U.S. officials retort that that they are legal. However, the real problem is that the U.S. has...

COVID II Policy; Meet Meat; Needing Liberalization

COVID II Policy Financial markets continue to be confused about the direction of the economy amidst a new surge in COVID cases and political uncertainty. The U.S. jobless claims report this morning was lower than expected while September existing home sales were strong. But the job market is de...

Future Volatility; Special Goose

Future Volatility As if the past few years have not been tumultuous enough, markets must now brace for what could be intensified volatility in the weeks ahead. No matter which side loses in next month’s U.S. elections, there is likely to be a lot of political angst and outrage. While the...

CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments

CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...

Economic Recovery Officially V-Shaped

On 29 October, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) issues the Q3 2020 GDP report, it likely will show the economy grew at more than 33 percent, based on a string of very positive economic reports since July. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains its GDP “NowCast” whic...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Brazil’s Corn and Soy Tariffs; Trade Facilitation

On Friday we commented on Brazil’s livestock and poultry demand potential for DDGS co-produced by the growing trend of corn ethanol production in Brazil. Producers are discovering that DDGS are cheaper than soymeal and help with feeding margins. That afternoon, the economy ministry of Bra...

Denuded Logic; Tax Consequences

Denuded Logic A key argument by some Europeans in both opposing palm oil imports, voting against a trade agreement with Brazil, and seeking self-sufficiency in plant proteins is deforestation. Politicians are reminded that Brazil’s rainforests are the earth’s “lungs” and...

Friday Intrigue

Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...

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