World Perspectives

Recent Policy Analysis

Transatlantic Miscalculations

Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...

China Purchasing Loophole; China Deal Worsens Transatlantic; USMCA Victory

China Purchasing Loophole First, it is important to reemphasize the point made in yesterday’s report that the key achievement in the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China is in the technical language. Unlike any other trade agreement, this one contains explicit contractual terms...

Trade Negotiator Frustrations; Larger Opportunities

Trade Negotiator Frustrations Much of the media coverage of the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement has centered around Beijing’s commitment to fixed amounts of purchases of goods, services, energy and agriculture. But for U.S. trade negotiators, the focus should be on the techni...

Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations; Subsidies Agreement; Future of Futures

Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations The actual text of a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and China is supposed to be released tomorrow, although key parts will be missing. Thus far, information about the agreement has been the verbal spin of Trump Administration officials. One point m...

Politics and Policy for Ag in 2020

If there is any doubt whether or not agriculture is a key constituency for Republicans generally, and the President specifically, in 2020, consider that the White House has scheduled President Trump to address the American Farm Bureau Federation convention which convenes this weekend for the th...

Plant Protection Ban Going Backwards; Anti-Trade Going Backwards; WASDE Mixed, Iowa Outcome?

Plant Protection Ban Going Backwards Politicians in different countries have called for bans on different plant protection chemicals and especially on the herbicide glyphosate, but use is continuing and even increasing. Sri Lanka banned glyphosate but then had to reinstate its use on its major...

biofuel energy

China Scales Back Ethanol Use Goals

Just as hopes were high for resuming ethanol exports to China under the Phase One deal to be signed this week, China is suspending its national E10 ethanol blending plan which was to be in effect in 2020. While the E10 goal was never realistic – USDA’s FAS post in China estimated mi...

Friday Shorts

Government Work: The U.S. government announced the creation of a Unified Website for Biotechnology Regulation in response to President Trump’s Executive Order on Modernizing the Regulatory Framework for Agricultural Biotechnology Products. The website merely contains links to the individu...

Value-Added Jugular

The Trump Administration has dubiously used trade balances as a metric for measuring relative policy fairness but France’s digital tax and the proposed retaliation against it by Washington highlights differences in the composition of trade. Although the U.S. committed to negotiate with Eu...

Iran Highlights Transatlantic Divide; Trumpians Avoid Digital Retaliation

Iran Highlights Transatlantic Divide The Iran situation has caused a full-blown fracturing of transatlantic relations. Even before the latest crisis, the EU and U.S. were far apart on bilateral trade policy, NATO funding, the WTO, China and many other issues. President Trump piled on with a div...

Election Perceptions and Policy

In what would be a nightmare scenario for American Democrats, large majorities of East Asian business leaders surveyed by the Nikkei expect President Trump to get re-elected this year. It is unclear how much these viewpoints reflect the perceptions of political leaders in these major Asian coun...

Bankers’ Views Going into Final USDA Reports

The agriculture sector is generally optimistic about 2020 based on a new trade deal with Japan in place on New Year’s Day, the progress of the USMCA, and the apparent deal struck with China. Weather is not likely to get worse, but the sheer volume of water means it will take a dry spring...

Transatlantic Miscalculations

Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...

China Purchasing Loophole; China Deal Worsens Transatlantic; USMCA Victory

China Purchasing Loophole First, it is important to reemphasize the point made in yesterday’s report that the key achievement in the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China is in the technical language. Unlike any other trade agreement, this one contains explicit contractual terms...

Trade Negotiator Frustrations; Larger Opportunities

Trade Negotiator Frustrations Much of the media coverage of the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement has centered around Beijing’s commitment to fixed amounts of purchases of goods, services, energy and agriculture. But for U.S. trade negotiators, the focus should be on the techni...

Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations; Subsidies Agreement; Future of Futures

Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations The actual text of a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and China is supposed to be released tomorrow, although key parts will be missing. Thus far, information about the agreement has been the verbal spin of Trump Administration officials. One point m...

Politics and Policy for Ag in 2020

If there is any doubt whether or not agriculture is a key constituency for Republicans generally, and the President specifically, in 2020, consider that the White House has scheduled President Trump to address the American Farm Bureau Federation convention which convenes this weekend for the th...

Plant Protection Ban Going Backwards; Anti-Trade Going Backwards; WASDE Mixed, Iowa Outcome?

Plant Protection Ban Going Backwards Politicians in different countries have called for bans on different plant protection chemicals and especially on the herbicide glyphosate, but use is continuing and even increasing. Sri Lanka banned glyphosate but then had to reinstate its use on its major...

biofuel energy

China Scales Back Ethanol Use Goals

Just as hopes were high for resuming ethanol exports to China under the Phase One deal to be signed this week, China is suspending its national E10 ethanol blending plan which was to be in effect in 2020. While the E10 goal was never realistic – USDA’s FAS post in China estimated mi...

Friday Shorts

Government Work: The U.S. government announced the creation of a Unified Website for Biotechnology Regulation in response to President Trump’s Executive Order on Modernizing the Regulatory Framework for Agricultural Biotechnology Products. The website merely contains links to the individu...

Value-Added Jugular

The Trump Administration has dubiously used trade balances as a metric for measuring relative policy fairness but France’s digital tax and the proposed retaliation against it by Washington highlights differences in the composition of trade. Although the U.S. committed to negotiate with Eu...

Iran Highlights Transatlantic Divide; Trumpians Avoid Digital Retaliation

Iran Highlights Transatlantic Divide The Iran situation has caused a full-blown fracturing of transatlantic relations. Even before the latest crisis, the EU and U.S. were far apart on bilateral trade policy, NATO funding, the WTO, China and many other issues. President Trump piled on with a div...

Election Perceptions and Policy

In what would be a nightmare scenario for American Democrats, large majorities of East Asian business leaders surveyed by the Nikkei expect President Trump to get re-elected this year. It is unclear how much these viewpoints reflect the perceptions of political leaders in these major Asian coun...

Bankers’ Views Going into Final USDA Reports

The agriculture sector is generally optimistic about 2020 based on a new trade deal with Japan in place on New Year’s Day, the progress of the USMCA, and the apparent deal struck with China. Weather is not likely to get worse, but the sheer volume of water means it will take a dry spring...

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