New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...