World Perspectives

Recent Policy Analysis

biofuel

Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?

Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...

POTUS State Owned Enterprises; U.S.- Brazil Lite

POTUS State Owned Enterprises A key complaint by the U.S. is that China competes unfairly as a non-market economy, the latest being an order from Beijing to domestic air carriers that they need to buy aircraft manufactured by local companies. However, things aren’t much better when the Pr...

biofuel

Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?

The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...

Dems on Trade Policy; Top Dems and Trade Agreement Optimism

Dems on Trade Policy Donald Trump has upended trade policy like no other U.S. president. His approach is contrary to Republican orthodoxy and rhetorically closer to Democratic dogma. In the 2016 campaign he ran to the left of Hillary Clinton on trade policy but then confounded political convent...

War Mitigation Funds Threatened; Big Oil vs. Big Ag; Bye WOTUS

War Mitigation Funds Threatened The Trump Administration has used up its $30 billion in CCC slush funds compensating farmers for the trade war and now Congressional Democrats are threatening to not refill the kitty via a continuing resolution being drafted for the end of September. The motivati...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China Big Picture

White House advisor Peter Navarro is discounting the optimism surrounding U.S. and China trade negotiations, arguing there are too many large issues at stake for it to close out satisfactorily on short-order. The focus has been on things like market access and intellectual property protections,...

Aggressive New EU Leadership; USMCA Labor Solution; Indian Ally

Aggressive New EU Leadership Under John Claude Juncker, the EU seemed confused on how to deal with Donald Trump, never having previously experienced such antagonism from an American leader. There was even a nonsensical trade agreement letter that was supposed to reduce the transatlantic tension...

Appropriations, USMCA and More on Congressional To Do List

Congress is back in session after the August recess. The two major issues that will dominate the legislative calendar are the appropriations process and the approval of the USMCA trade agreement.   First, appropriations. The 2019 fiscal year ends on 30 September. The House has already...

USMCA Push; Progressively Backwards

USMCA Push U.S. Congressional consideration of the USMCA agreement will get a heavy push from its supporters over the next few weeks. The earlier goal was to get approval in September but that has now been pushed to October with November even more likely. Opponents are suggesting the legislatio...

livestock

Pork Export Rebound Just in Time

The pent-up global pork demand is finally starting to take effect, and it would appear just in time for U.S. producers.  July pork exports from the U.S. were 233,242 MT. That is an all-time monthly record (ahead of the previous record set in April 2018) and 132 percent of July 2018. ...

biofuel

White House Trouble with RFS Math

On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy” (click here).  After a White House meeting yesterday with USDA and EPA, that plan may be announced next week with the President u...

soy-oilseeds biofuel wheat

Trade War’s Damage, or Not

The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically it will if it lasts a long time, but “damage” is a relative term. The U.S. grows a lot of soybeans (plus wheat and corn) because...

biofuel

Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?

Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...

POTUS State Owned Enterprises; U.S.- Brazil Lite

POTUS State Owned Enterprises A key complaint by the U.S. is that China competes unfairly as a non-market economy, the latest being an order from Beijing to domestic air carriers that they need to buy aircraft manufactured by local companies. However, things aren’t much better when the Pr...

biofuel

Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?

The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...

Dems on Trade Policy; Top Dems and Trade Agreement Optimism

Dems on Trade Policy Donald Trump has upended trade policy like no other U.S. president. His approach is contrary to Republican orthodoxy and rhetorically closer to Democratic dogma. In the 2016 campaign he ran to the left of Hillary Clinton on trade policy but then confounded political convent...

War Mitigation Funds Threatened; Big Oil vs. Big Ag; Bye WOTUS

War Mitigation Funds Threatened The Trump Administration has used up its $30 billion in CCC slush funds compensating farmers for the trade war and now Congressional Democrats are threatening to not refill the kitty via a continuing resolution being drafted for the end of September. The motivati...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China Big Picture

White House advisor Peter Navarro is discounting the optimism surrounding U.S. and China trade negotiations, arguing there are too many large issues at stake for it to close out satisfactorily on short-order. The focus has been on things like market access and intellectual property protections,...

Aggressive New EU Leadership; USMCA Labor Solution; Indian Ally

Aggressive New EU Leadership Under John Claude Juncker, the EU seemed confused on how to deal with Donald Trump, never having previously experienced such antagonism from an American leader. There was even a nonsensical trade agreement letter that was supposed to reduce the transatlantic tension...

Appropriations, USMCA and More on Congressional To Do List

Congress is back in session after the August recess. The two major issues that will dominate the legislative calendar are the appropriations process and the approval of the USMCA trade agreement.   First, appropriations. The 2019 fiscal year ends on 30 September. The House has already...

USMCA Push; Progressively Backwards

USMCA Push U.S. Congressional consideration of the USMCA agreement will get a heavy push from its supporters over the next few weeks. The earlier goal was to get approval in September but that has now been pushed to October with November even more likely. Opponents are suggesting the legislatio...

livestock

Pork Export Rebound Just in Time

The pent-up global pork demand is finally starting to take effect, and it would appear just in time for U.S. producers.  July pork exports from the U.S. were 233,242 MT. That is an all-time monthly record (ahead of the previous record set in April 2018) and 132 percent of July 2018. ...

biofuel

White House Trouble with RFS Math

On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy” (click here).  After a White House meeting yesterday with USDA and EPA, that plan may be announced next week with the President u...

soy-oilseeds biofuel wheat

Trade War’s Damage, or Not

The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically it will if it lasts a long time, but “damage” is a relative term. The U.S. grows a lot of soybeans (plus wheat and corn) because...

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