World Perspectives

Recent Macroeconomics Analysis

Friday Trade Policy Shorts; Bets on Grain and Implementation

Friday Trade Policy Shorts EU Procedural: Jurisdictional issues arise as the pesticide restrictions proposed in the EU fall under DG-Sante, but the funding to support the policy change is in the CAP managed by DG-Agri, with the later not invited to the key meetings. Plus, the EU Parliament&rsqu...

biofuel

4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol

Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID.   A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...

Staying in Lanes; Goodbye Ag; East-West Helps the Poor

Staying in Lanes Under ideal governance, elected legislatures create the principles of public policy. For example, pesticides should be used when proven scientifically safe and banned when proven harmful. Regulators then implement those principles using expertise uniquely held by impartial expe...

Properly Characterizing China; Concrete Plan Needed

Properly Characterizing China Former President Donald Trump had a lot of choice descriptors for China, many of them crude. Europe tried the term “strategic competitor” but that sounded relatively benign. The G-7 this past weekend more properly gave the Middle Kingdom the moniker of...

Recession, Maybe Not – More Inflation, Yes

There is new economic data out showing that the economy is not destined for a recession (near term, anyway). The impact of increased interest rates may just delay a recessionary period until next year.  Orders for durable goods were released today. Most categories were up, including metals...

Stopping Transition Volatility; Labor Policy Influences Politics; Short Straw

Stopping Transition Volatility Policymakers set targets related to sustainability to achieve desired end goals. These include reducing pesticide use by 30 percent, mandating 10 percent ethanol blends, or ending internal combustion engine automobiles by 2030. These inflexible policies lead to vo...

Gutsy USTR; Inflation Beats Exports; Ruble Hell

Gutsy USTR  USTR Katherine Tai is in an interagency battle over whether to lift tariffs on China to try and stem inflation, and she’s not backing down in her opposition to such a move. Yesterday she told Congress that, “The China tariffs are, in my view, a significant piece of...

Looking at Food Spending for Home Delivery

USDA release its Food Expenditure series data today through 2021. It is interesting data to look at given the current inflationary environment for food and the COVID pandemic and other perceived trends. The chart below shows the total consumer spending purchases for the “food at home&rdqu...

Testy Meeting; WTO Baby Steps; Russia and Ukraine Exports

Testy Meeting At the behest of her boss, President Biden, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has called an emergency meeting with oil refining executives next week. The President is demanding that they increase output, but Secretary Granholm will be in an uncomfortable position during the...

Developing versus Developing at WTO; Labor, Environment Flipped

Developing versus Developing at WTO India’s Commerce Minister, Piyush Goyal proclaimed to be speaking for all developing countries as held WTO negotiators hostage this week in Geneva. He criticized agreement language that he charged was “largely suited to the developed countries.&rd...

Inflation Pushes Liberalized Trade; WTO Meeting Extension; Transportation Bottlenecks

Inflation Pushes Liberalized Trade Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from TPP and imposed tariffs on trading partners. Joe Biden has proposed some new trade measures like IPEF, and maybe reducing some tariffs on China, but has not pursued market access negotiations. Inflation is the largest Americ...

Agritech Emphasis; Fertilizer Emphasis; Whale Irony

Agritech Emphasis Climate change, geopolitical conflict and food security are coming together and changing global agriculture. Supply chain and technology alliances have been formed. Notably, Alex Capri at the National University of Singapore cites the alignment of the West over the war in Ukra...

Friday Trade Policy Shorts; Bets on Grain and Implementation

Friday Trade Policy Shorts EU Procedural: Jurisdictional issues arise as the pesticide restrictions proposed in the EU fall under DG-Sante, but the funding to support the policy change is in the CAP managed by DG-Agri, with the later not invited to the key meetings. Plus, the EU Parliament&rsqu...

biofuel

4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol

Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID.   A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...

Staying in Lanes; Goodbye Ag; East-West Helps the Poor

Staying in Lanes Under ideal governance, elected legislatures create the principles of public policy. For example, pesticides should be used when proven scientifically safe and banned when proven harmful. Regulators then implement those principles using expertise uniquely held by impartial expe...

Properly Characterizing China; Concrete Plan Needed

Properly Characterizing China Former President Donald Trump had a lot of choice descriptors for China, many of them crude. Europe tried the term “strategic competitor” but that sounded relatively benign. The G-7 this past weekend more properly gave the Middle Kingdom the moniker of...

Recession, Maybe Not – More Inflation, Yes

There is new economic data out showing that the economy is not destined for a recession (near term, anyway). The impact of increased interest rates may just delay a recessionary period until next year.  Orders for durable goods were released today. Most categories were up, including metals...

Stopping Transition Volatility; Labor Policy Influences Politics; Short Straw

Stopping Transition Volatility Policymakers set targets related to sustainability to achieve desired end goals. These include reducing pesticide use by 30 percent, mandating 10 percent ethanol blends, or ending internal combustion engine automobiles by 2030. These inflexible policies lead to vo...

Gutsy USTR; Inflation Beats Exports; Ruble Hell

Gutsy USTR  USTR Katherine Tai is in an interagency battle over whether to lift tariffs on China to try and stem inflation, and she’s not backing down in her opposition to such a move. Yesterday she told Congress that, “The China tariffs are, in my view, a significant piece of...

Looking at Food Spending for Home Delivery

USDA release its Food Expenditure series data today through 2021. It is interesting data to look at given the current inflationary environment for food and the COVID pandemic and other perceived trends. The chart below shows the total consumer spending purchases for the “food at home&rdqu...

Testy Meeting; WTO Baby Steps; Russia and Ukraine Exports

Testy Meeting At the behest of her boss, President Biden, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has called an emergency meeting with oil refining executives next week. The President is demanding that they increase output, but Secretary Granholm will be in an uncomfortable position during the...

Developing versus Developing at WTO; Labor, Environment Flipped

Developing versus Developing at WTO India’s Commerce Minister, Piyush Goyal proclaimed to be speaking for all developing countries as held WTO negotiators hostage this week in Geneva. He criticized agreement language that he charged was “largely suited to the developed countries.&rd...

Inflation Pushes Liberalized Trade; WTO Meeting Extension; Transportation Bottlenecks

Inflation Pushes Liberalized Trade Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from TPP and imposed tariffs on trading partners. Joe Biden has proposed some new trade measures like IPEF, and maybe reducing some tariffs on China, but has not pursued market access negotiations. Inflation is the largest Americ...

Agritech Emphasis; Fertilizer Emphasis; Whale Irony

Agritech Emphasis Climate change, geopolitical conflict and food security are coming together and changing global agriculture. Supply chain and technology alliances have been formed. Notably, Alex Capri at the National University of Singapore cites the alignment of the West over the war in Ukra...

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