World Perspectives

Recent Macroeconomics Analysis

Fed Report: More Growth, Less Leverage

This week, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivered the first of his twice-per-year reports to Congress in testimony before the House and Senate Banking Committees. The basic message was the economy is strong, but the current range of low interest rates may mean a loss of leverage...

African Century

A phrase filled with dark humor about Brazil in the 1990’s was, Brazil é o pais do futuro e sempre será - Brazil is the country of the future and always will be. However, it eventually broke out from its underperforming stage. The Brazilian economy is now six times larger an...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

USDA Forecasts and China Agreement

The February WASDE will be released this coming Tuesday and ahead of it USDA’s Office of the Chief of Economist (OCE) issued an explanation of how upcoming WASDE reports will integrate projections of the China trade agreement. The coronavirus situation has put some of the big expectations...

Decline in Global Specialty Crops Trade

The trade war has largely involved major crops like soybeans, grain and livestock products. However, there has been concurrent adverse impacts on the trade in specialty crops that may have lower aggregate values but typically have greater per unit prices. These are also products that have valua...

livestock

Animal Protein to China

Analysts have opined that if China is looking to meet a purchasing threshold from the U.S. based on a dollar amount, it would be better to focus on high value/value added products. Chief among these would be products presently in somewhat of a short supply situation, such as livestock products...

Domestic Before Trade Deals; Obesity Ignores Nutrition Labels

Domestic Before Trade Deals Everyone knows that President Donald Trump is a protectionist, but he has very good company when it comes to that charge. As his Administration likes to note, the TransPacific Partnership agreement was never going to be enacted even if he did not become president. No...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Viral Impacts

The coronavirus spreading out from Wuhan China has supposedly put markets on edge, especially equities. The death toll from the disease is rising but is less than 30 at this juncture. Looking for a proxy situation, the SARS virus back in 2002/03 also started in China and eventually spread to 26...

Transatlanticism; Number One China Question

Transatlanticism The World Economic Forum in Davos this week brought to the fore some major trade issues between the U.S. and Europe. First, French President Emmanuel Macron delayed his country’s imposition of a digital tax until the end of the year in hopes that the OECD negotiation proc...

Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?

New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade.  The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...

Transatlantic Miscalculations

Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...

China Purchasing Loophole; China Deal Worsens Transatlantic; USMCA Victory

China Purchasing Loophole First, it is important to reemphasize the point made in yesterday’s report that the key achievement in the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China is in the technical language. Unlike any other trade agreement, this one contains explicit contractual terms...

Return to Managed Trade

Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...

Fed Report: More Growth, Less Leverage

This week, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivered the first of his twice-per-year reports to Congress in testimony before the House and Senate Banking Committees. The basic message was the economy is strong, but the current range of low interest rates may mean a loss of leverage...

African Century

A phrase filled with dark humor about Brazil in the 1990’s was, Brazil é o pais do futuro e sempre será - Brazil is the country of the future and always will be. However, it eventually broke out from its underperforming stage. The Brazilian economy is now six times larger an...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

USDA Forecasts and China Agreement

The February WASDE will be released this coming Tuesday and ahead of it USDA’s Office of the Chief of Economist (OCE) issued an explanation of how upcoming WASDE reports will integrate projections of the China trade agreement. The coronavirus situation has put some of the big expectations...

Decline in Global Specialty Crops Trade

The trade war has largely involved major crops like soybeans, grain and livestock products. However, there has been concurrent adverse impacts on the trade in specialty crops that may have lower aggregate values but typically have greater per unit prices. These are also products that have valua...

livestock

Animal Protein to China

Analysts have opined that if China is looking to meet a purchasing threshold from the U.S. based on a dollar amount, it would be better to focus on high value/value added products. Chief among these would be products presently in somewhat of a short supply situation, such as livestock products...

Domestic Before Trade Deals; Obesity Ignores Nutrition Labels

Domestic Before Trade Deals Everyone knows that President Donald Trump is a protectionist, but he has very good company when it comes to that charge. As his Administration likes to note, the TransPacific Partnership agreement was never going to be enacted even if he did not become president. No...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Viral Impacts

The coronavirus spreading out from Wuhan China has supposedly put markets on edge, especially equities. The death toll from the disease is rising but is less than 30 at this juncture. Looking for a proxy situation, the SARS virus back in 2002/03 also started in China and eventually spread to 26...

Transatlanticism; Number One China Question

Transatlanticism The World Economic Forum in Davos this week brought to the fore some major trade issues between the U.S. and Europe. First, French President Emmanuel Macron delayed his country’s imposition of a digital tax until the end of the year in hopes that the OECD negotiation proc...

Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?

New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade.  The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...

Transatlantic Miscalculations

Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...

China Purchasing Loophole; China Deal Worsens Transatlantic; USMCA Victory

China Purchasing Loophole First, it is important to reemphasize the point made in yesterday’s report that the key achievement in the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China is in the technical language. Unlike any other trade agreement, this one contains explicit contractual terms...

Return to Managed Trade

Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...

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