World Perspectives

Recent Macroeconomics Analysis

Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?

New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade.  The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...

Transatlantic Miscalculations

Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...

China Purchasing Loophole; China Deal Worsens Transatlantic; USMCA Victory

China Purchasing Loophole First, it is important to reemphasize the point made in yesterday’s report that the key achievement in the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China is in the technical language. Unlike any other trade agreement, this one contains explicit contractual terms...

Return to Managed Trade

Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...

India Needs Fruit and Vegetable Imports

Unfavorable weather this past summer caused a shortfall in food production that is now reverberating through the Indian economy. Food comprises half of India’s consumer price index and the cost of vegetables in this global number one vegetarian market has reportedly skyrocketed 61 percent...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics With strikes and farmers meeting en masse to protest the new export taxes, the Argentine government has decided, for the moment anyway, to leave the export taxes at 30 percent for soybeans and 15 percent for wheat, corn, and barley. Even so, Congress has given Argentina’s n...

Bankers’ Views Going into Final USDA Reports

The agriculture sector is generally optimistic about 2020 based on a new trade deal with Japan in place on New Year’s Day, the progress of the USMCA, and the apparent deal struck with China. Weather is not likely to get worse, but the sheer volume of water means it will take a dry spring...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

GDP Growth Consumes Food

Economists and central bankers gathering this past weekend at the American Economists Association found reasons to be optimistic. The U.S. economy is slowing but odds of a recession are low. Low interest rates and a solid jobs market offset a slowdown in manufacturing. The IMF predicts global e...

Ephemeral Market Reaction

Markets reportedly reacted today to the U.S. killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani by falling in values and the price of oil rising. However, it is a classic example of a knee-jerk reaction. Middle East tensions run through the region’s history with the larger events in recent dec...

2019/2020 Dog Whistle

Politicians glommed on to the issue of income inequality in 2019 and they will remain focused on it during 2020. They can do nothing about it, but when a minority is rich and a majority is not the disparity makes for a solidly populist political manifesto. As noted by Robert Samuelson in the Wa...

The Decade’s Economic Changes in Three Charts

The decade is coming to a close, and what a decade it has been for the U.S. economy. It started with a recession, a major (Keynesian) stimulus policy package in the form of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, followed by a long term “little engine that could” plodding but po...

2020 – The Pessimists

The U.S. – China trade war is cooling off, fears of a major economic recession have receded and commodity prices are projected to climb, but the bearish leaning pundits still see plenty to fear in 2020: China: The trade war may be in remission, but China’s economy is still slowing...

Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?

New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade.  The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...

Transatlantic Miscalculations

Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...

China Purchasing Loophole; China Deal Worsens Transatlantic; USMCA Victory

China Purchasing Loophole First, it is important to reemphasize the point made in yesterday’s report that the key achievement in the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China is in the technical language. Unlike any other trade agreement, this one contains explicit contractual terms...

Return to Managed Trade

Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...

India Needs Fruit and Vegetable Imports

Unfavorable weather this past summer caused a shortfall in food production that is now reverberating through the Indian economy. Food comprises half of India’s consumer price index and the cost of vegetables in this global number one vegetarian market has reportedly skyrocketed 61 percent...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics With strikes and farmers meeting en masse to protest the new export taxes, the Argentine government has decided, for the moment anyway, to leave the export taxes at 30 percent for soybeans and 15 percent for wheat, corn, and barley. Even so, Congress has given Argentina’s n...

Bankers’ Views Going into Final USDA Reports

The agriculture sector is generally optimistic about 2020 based on a new trade deal with Japan in place on New Year’s Day, the progress of the USMCA, and the apparent deal struck with China. Weather is not likely to get worse, but the sheer volume of water means it will take a dry spring...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

GDP Growth Consumes Food

Economists and central bankers gathering this past weekend at the American Economists Association found reasons to be optimistic. The U.S. economy is slowing but odds of a recession are low. Low interest rates and a solid jobs market offset a slowdown in manufacturing. The IMF predicts global e...

Ephemeral Market Reaction

Markets reportedly reacted today to the U.S. killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani by falling in values and the price of oil rising. However, it is a classic example of a knee-jerk reaction. Middle East tensions run through the region’s history with the larger events in recent dec...

2019/2020 Dog Whistle

Politicians glommed on to the issue of income inequality in 2019 and they will remain focused on it during 2020. They can do nothing about it, but when a minority is rich and a majority is not the disparity makes for a solidly populist political manifesto. As noted by Robert Samuelson in the Wa...

The Decade’s Economic Changes in Three Charts

The decade is coming to a close, and what a decade it has been for the U.S. economy. It started with a recession, a major (Keynesian) stimulus policy package in the form of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, followed by a long term “little engine that could” plodding but po...

2020 – The Pessimists

The U.S. – China trade war is cooling off, fears of a major economic recession have receded and commodity prices are projected to climb, but the bearish leaning pundits still see plenty to fear in 2020: China: The trade war may be in remission, but China’s economy is still slowing...

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