Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 30,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales reductions of 113,400 MT for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week an...
AM Outlook - Weather, Stocks and Funds
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on profit-taking heading into the weekend. The USDA report has come and gone, and we are left looking at weather, stocks, and funds. The gist of the report was that the USDA was conservative except for Safrinha corn. End-users continue...
Technical Views - All Going Down
SPREADS July crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 42.68%. Inverses remain well supported with July/Nov beans trading to 1.95c to 2.08c. July /Dec meal is weaker trading down to $24.50 from $28.50. July/Dec corn trades from 1.23c down to 1.12 3/4c inverse. July...
WASDE Soyoil
SOYOIL: Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expanding renewable diesel industry. ...
WASDE Soymeal
SOYMEAL: soybean crush for 2021/22 is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from the 2020/21 forecast, reflecting favorable crush margins. ...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: The 2021/22 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21. The soybean crop is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 270 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. ...
Market Commentary: Unsurprising Surprise
Today’s USDA WASDE report was not what the trade thought, and yet it was not caught flat-footed. To some degree this is because years of guessing wrong on what USDA will say, it simply takes it as another observation point and not necessarily the Bible. This was reinforced by the fact tha...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog Producers Confront the Scissors Effect Record feed costs, historically high piglet prices, biosafety costs, and declining live hog and pork prices have created the dreaded scissors effect for many hog producers. The scissors effect, a term from corporate finance...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.1475/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.2975/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Soybeans closed at $16.425/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Soymeal closed at $448.8/short ton, up $1.8 f...
PM Post - Mixed Bag
THE OPEN July beans: 19 higher July meal: 1.40 higher July soyoil: 99 higher July corn: 1 higher July wheat: 5 lower The markets opened as called but bean prices traded sharply higher and into new contract highs into the morning trade along with soyoil. Grain...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market grew following global trends. The export milling wheat average price grew to $276/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price grew to RUB 15,600/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price gre...
AM Outlook - WASDE a Reference, Not the Bible
GOOD MORNING, The bulls continue to roll on with more strength overnight emanating from a strong close and reversal from Monday's weakness that more or less aided in defining trading range lows. The May Supply and Demand report will be released at 11:00 central time. The reaction to...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 30,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales reductions of 113,400 MT for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week an...
AM Outlook - Weather, Stocks and Funds
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on profit-taking heading into the weekend. The USDA report has come and gone, and we are left looking at weather, stocks, and funds. The gist of the report was that the USDA was conservative except for Safrinha corn. End-users continue...
Technical Views - All Going Down
SPREADS July crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 42.68%. Inverses remain well supported with July/Nov beans trading to 1.95c to 2.08c. July /Dec meal is weaker trading down to $24.50 from $28.50. July/Dec corn trades from 1.23c down to 1.12 3/4c inverse. July...
WASDE Soyoil
SOYOIL: Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expanding renewable diesel industry. ...
WASDE Soymeal
SOYMEAL: soybean crush for 2021/22 is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from the 2020/21 forecast, reflecting favorable crush margins. ...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: The 2021/22 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21. The soybean crop is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 270 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. ...
Market Commentary: Unsurprising Surprise
Today’s USDA WASDE report was not what the trade thought, and yet it was not caught flat-footed. To some degree this is because years of guessing wrong on what USDA will say, it simply takes it as another observation point and not necessarily the Bible. This was reinforced by the fact tha...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog Producers Confront the Scissors Effect Record feed costs, historically high piglet prices, biosafety costs, and declining live hog and pork prices have created the dreaded scissors effect for many hog producers. The scissors effect, a term from corporate finance...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.1475/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.2975/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Soybeans closed at $16.425/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Soymeal closed at $448.8/short ton, up $1.8 f...
PM Post - Mixed Bag
THE OPEN July beans: 19 higher July meal: 1.40 higher July soyoil: 99 higher July corn: 1 higher July wheat: 5 lower The markets opened as called but bean prices traded sharply higher and into new contract highs into the morning trade along with soyoil. Grain...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market grew following global trends. The export milling wheat average price grew to $276/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price grew to RUB 15,600/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price gre...
AM Outlook - WASDE a Reference, Not the Bible
GOOD MORNING, The bulls continue to roll on with more strength overnight emanating from a strong close and reversal from Monday's weakness that more or less aided in defining trading range lows. The May Supply and Demand report will be released at 11:00 central time. The reaction to...