Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 November 2018 Milling wheat export prices were stable at an average $228/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew in RUB expression but dropped in USD expression to $196-197/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export and purchase prices rose t...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.67/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.03/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.835/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $305.7/short ton, up $1.8 from y...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock African Swine Fever Continues to Run Rampant Despite quarantines, incentives to cull herds impacted by sick animals, and harsh penalties administered to officials committing fraud, new cases of African swine fever (ASF) have continued to appear across China with outbreaks reported in...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade reversed some of what occurred on Monday. Soybeans were higher, while grain prices were lower. Traders were chewing over news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has been discussing trade issues with high-level Chinese officials. Optimists see such contact as setting the stage...
Soybean Market’s Hope Springs Eternal
For the past few weeks, the soybean futures market has been living largely on hope. At this writing, the January soybean contract is at $8.815, down 1.75 cents from Monday’s close after trading as high as $8.9075 today. Meanwhile, cash basis bids for soybeans have been creeping higher fro...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Rapeseed; Brazil’s Soybean Exports; U.S. Soybean Inspections; Argentine Biodiesel
European Rapeseed Plantings Down Sharply The head of the French Federation of Oilseed and Protein Crop Producers (FOP) indicated last week that the country’s winter rapeseed plantings will likely decrease 30-35 percent from last year due to the lack of rain this fall. While that suggests...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.665/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7825/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.9/short ton, down $1.7...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Iran’s Chabahar port has been granted an exemption from the U.S. sanctions placed on that country. The exemption is said to cover port use for Afghanistan-related goods and also extends to the Iran/Afghanistan railway corridor. India has...
Market Commentary
Today was the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S. The government was closed, but markets were open. The typical Monday USDA reports (e.g., weekly export inspections and weekly crop progress) will be released Tuesday. Corn and wheat futures were just slightly higher overnight with soybean futures l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.8325/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $305.6/short ton, up $0 from...
Are Soybean Prices Doomed Even with a China Trade Deal?
The January 2019 soybean futures chart (see below) clearly shows the steep price decline that occurred after China imposed a 25 percent duty on soybean imports from the U.S., a retaliatory response in its trade dispute with the latter. The soybean trade issue was a hot topic across farm country...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 November 2018 Milling wheat export prices were stable at an average $228/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew in RUB expression but dropped in USD expression to $196-197/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export and purchase prices rose t...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.67/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.03/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.835/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $305.7/short ton, up $1.8 from y...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock African Swine Fever Continues to Run Rampant Despite quarantines, incentives to cull herds impacted by sick animals, and harsh penalties administered to officials committing fraud, new cases of African swine fever (ASF) have continued to appear across China with outbreaks reported in...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade reversed some of what occurred on Monday. Soybeans were higher, while grain prices were lower. Traders were chewing over news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has been discussing trade issues with high-level Chinese officials. Optimists see such contact as setting the stage...
Soybean Market’s Hope Springs Eternal
For the past few weeks, the soybean futures market has been living largely on hope. At this writing, the January soybean contract is at $8.815, down 1.75 cents from Monday’s close after trading as high as $8.9075 today. Meanwhile, cash basis bids for soybeans have been creeping higher fro...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Rapeseed; Brazil’s Soybean Exports; U.S. Soybean Inspections; Argentine Biodiesel
European Rapeseed Plantings Down Sharply The head of the French Federation of Oilseed and Protein Crop Producers (FOP) indicated last week that the country’s winter rapeseed plantings will likely decrease 30-35 percent from last year due to the lack of rain this fall. While that suggests...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.665/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7825/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.9/short ton, down $1.7...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Iran’s Chabahar port has been granted an exemption from the U.S. sanctions placed on that country. The exemption is said to cover port use for Afghanistan-related goods and also extends to the Iran/Afghanistan railway corridor. India has...
Market Commentary
Today was the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S. The government was closed, but markets were open. The typical Monday USDA reports (e.g., weekly export inspections and weekly crop progress) will be released Tuesday. Corn and wheat futures were just slightly higher overnight with soybean futures l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.8325/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $305.6/short ton, up $0 from...
Are Soybean Prices Doomed Even with a China Trade Deal?
The January 2019 soybean futures chart (see below) clearly shows the steep price decline that occurred after China imposed a 25 percent duty on soybean imports from the U.S., a retaliatory response in its trade dispute with the latter. The soybean trade issue was a hot topic across farm country...