Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Below 1 MMT Strong downstream demand from the feed industry as hog prices continue to surge pushed China’s nationwide soymeal inventory below the 1 MMT threshold. The total stood at 940,000 MT as of 14 September 2018, down 83,100 MT (-8.1 percent) from the...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush; Brazilian and U.S. Soy Plantings;, Canadian Oilseeds
NOPA Members’ Record August Crush The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) yesterday released its August soybean crush report. As expected, it indicated members crushed the largest amount ever for that month at 158.885 million bushels (4.32 MMT). That was down from 167.733 milli...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Smile! Large Upside Volatility in Corn Futures
In the latest sequence of WPI’s weekly Smile! report, the biggest change is a massive increase in upside volatility for corn futures while soybean and wheat futures are more neutrally positioned. For background on the methodology used in this analysis, check out this article. Ag...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was active last week, especially at the beginning with Chinese buyers securing several vessels. Spot margins have been extremely good lately in China at around $50-55/MT, a level hardly seen before for October, November or December positions. Brazil...
Early Projections for 2019 Crop Returns Are Dismal
Big Iron, one of the largest farm shows in the country, was held this week in Fargo, ND. There is always a large seminar held for farmers during this show, which covers topics such as market outlook, marketing strategies, updates on the progress of the farm bill, etc. Also included this year wa...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded much the same way with corn and soybean futures markets mostly steady and wheat higher. Volume was less than average, which has been the case...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.5175/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.115/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.305/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, down $6.2 f...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Money Flows versus the Market
WPI’s recent research suggests December corn futures are likely to see additional selling pressure while a bottom may be approaching for November soybean futures. The wheat market outlook is mixed with funds reportedly holding a small long position but more recent data suggesting they hav...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Below 1 MMT Strong downstream demand from the feed industry as hog prices continue to surge pushed China’s nationwide soymeal inventory below the 1 MMT threshold. The total stood at 940,000 MT as of 14 September 2018, down 83,100 MT (-8.1 percent) from the...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush; Brazilian and U.S. Soy Plantings;, Canadian Oilseeds
NOPA Members’ Record August Crush The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) yesterday released its August soybean crush report. As expected, it indicated members crushed the largest amount ever for that month at 158.885 million bushels (4.32 MMT). That was down from 167.733 milli...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Smile! Large Upside Volatility in Corn Futures
In the latest sequence of WPI’s weekly Smile! report, the biggest change is a massive increase in upside volatility for corn futures while soybean and wheat futures are more neutrally positioned. For background on the methodology used in this analysis, check out this article. Ag...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was active last week, especially at the beginning with Chinese buyers securing several vessels. Spot margins have been extremely good lately in China at around $50-55/MT, a level hardly seen before for October, November or December positions. Brazil...
Early Projections for 2019 Crop Returns Are Dismal
Big Iron, one of the largest farm shows in the country, was held this week in Fargo, ND. There is always a large seminar held for farmers during this show, which covers topics such as market outlook, marketing strategies, updates on the progress of the farm bill, etc. Also included this year wa...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded much the same way with corn and soybean futures markets mostly steady and wheat higher. Volume was less than average, which has been the case...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.5175/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.115/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.305/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, down $6.2 f...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Money Flows versus the Market
WPI’s recent research suggests December corn futures are likely to see additional selling pressure while a bottom may be approaching for November soybean futures. The wheat market outlook is mixed with funds reportedly holding a small long position but more recent data suggesting they hav...