Feed Grains
A Break from the Weather: Technical Analysis of the Markets
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or possibly in Arizona where you might not have noticed), you know that the spring weather across the Midwest has been terrible - too cold, too wet, too snowy. Adding add insult to injury, it all started after the New England Patriots won the most b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
A Break from the Weather: Technical Analysis of the Markets
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or possibly in Arizona where you might not have noticed), you know that the spring weather across the Midwest has been terrible - too cold, too wet, too snowy. Adding add insult to injury, it all started after the New England Patriots won the most b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government reports that it has bought 2.2 MMT of local wheat against a target purchase of 3.6 MMT. Pakistani officials indicate that the local wheat crop will total about 24.3 MMT, down from 25.6 MMT last year, and the stocks are...
Soy & Oilseeds
A Break from the Weather: Technical Analysis of the Markets
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or possibly in Arizona where you might not have noticed), you know that the spring weather across the Midwest has been terrible - too cold, too wet, too snowy. Adding add insult to injury, it all started after the New England Patriots won the most b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
A Break from the Weather: Technical Analysis of the Markets
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or possibly in Arizona where you might not have noticed), you know that the spring weather across the Midwest has been terrible - too cold, too wet, too snowy. Adding add insult to injury, it all started after the New England Patriots won the most b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Purchases; Southeast Asia’s Concerns; South American Soy Updates
China Deciding What to Do with Unshipped U.S. Soybean Purchases Now that trade negotiations with the U.S. have broken down, the Chinese government is apparently now deciding what to do with the more than 7 MMT of unshipped soybeans it has purchased from the U.S. Unconfirmed reports indicate Chi...
Wheat
A Break from the Weather: Technical Analysis of the Markets
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or possibly in Arizona where you might not have noticed), you know that the spring weather across the Midwest has been terrible - too cold, too wet, too snowy. Adding add insult to injury, it all started after the New England Patriots won the most b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
A Break from the Weather: Technical Analysis of the Markets
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or possibly in Arizona where you might not have noticed), you know that the spring weather across the Midwest has been terrible - too cold, too wet, too snowy. Adding add insult to injury, it all started after the New England Patriots won the most b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government reports that it has bought 2.2 MMT of local wheat against a target purchase of 3.6 MMT. Pakistani officials indicate that the local wheat crop will total about 24.3 MMT, down from 25.6 MMT last year, and the stocks are...
Livestock
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.89/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7825/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.3175/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $3 from yest...
Biofuels
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
EPA Biofuel Rules on the Way: Impact of E15 and Reset
The EPA has promised to have the waiver to allow year-round E15 use in place by the beginning of the summer driving season (1 June-15 September), which is when it is restricted under current regulations. An agency spokeswoman confirmed on 15 May that “EPA will finalize the rule before the...
Renewable Diesel: Better and Eventually Bigger?
There is an ongoing shift in the biofuels market toward more renewable diesel, which at some point will start to put a squeeze on traditional biomass-based diesel. The distinctions between the fuels are subtle but important. In fact, it’s important enough that the U.S. Energy Information...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
EPA Biofuel Rules on the Way: Impact of E15 and Reset
The EPA has promised to have the waiver to allow year-round E15 use in place by the beginning of the summer driving season (1 June-15 September), which is when it is restricted under current regulations. An agency spokeswoman confirmed on 15 May that “EPA will finalize the rule before the...
Renewable Diesel: Better and Eventually Bigger?
There is an ongoing shift in the biofuels market toward more renewable diesel, which at some point will start to put a squeeze on traditional biomass-based diesel. The distinctions between the fuels are subtle but important. In fact, it’s important enough that the U.S. Energy Information...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
Farm Inputs
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 March 2019 Prices on the domestic market again declined in RUB expression but moved in different directions in USD expression. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price rose $4/MT to $228/MT FOB Black Sea, while purchase prices remained unchanged in RUB expr...
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...
Phoney Trade War; Stop the Phony War on Biotech; False Plan for Africa
Phoney Trade War In September 1939, Hitler’s army imposed the infamous blitzkrieg attack on Poland and, with the complicity of the Soviet Union, the nation was completely subdued in just over a month. Historically it is known as the start of WWII, but because a half-year passed before Hit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 March 2019 Prices on the domestic market again declined in RUB expression but moved in different directions in USD expression. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price rose $4/MT to $228/MT FOB Black Sea, while purchase prices remained unchanged in RUB expr...
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...
Phoney Trade War; Stop the Phony War on Biotech; False Plan for Africa
Phoney Trade War In September 1939, Hitler’s army imposed the infamous blitzkrieg attack on Poland and, with the complicity of the Soviet Union, the nation was completely subdued in just over a month. Historically it is known as the start of WWII, but because a half-year passed before Hit...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Equities
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund short covering and commercial hedge buying contributing to the rally. While the fundamentals (as most recently reported by USDA) remain bear...
Energy
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.22/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $2 fro...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.89/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7825/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.3175/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $3 from yest...
Softs
Agricultural Funds and ETFs
The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of the 21st century. This was based on studies indicating that commodity and equity prices often moved in opposite directions. The viability o...
USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables
USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. While not huge, these modifications will likely add clarity and should have been implemented long ago. They will not affect the actual numbers b...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...
Agricultural Funds and ETFs
The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of the 21st century. This was based on studies indicating that commodity and equity prices often moved in opposite directions. The viability o...
USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables
USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. While not huge, these modifications will likely add clarity and should have been implemented long ago. They will not affect the actual numbers b...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Macroeconomics
Want More Sales? Try Owning a Restaurant
The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released Tuesday, suggests that owning a restaurant is likely to be a sales-boosting endeavor in 2019. Okay, it didn’t really say that, but the report holds some interesting insights for the food and agribusiness industri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the debate between farmers and exporters. On contracts executed in USD, farmers were claiming that they were losing money between the time the forex...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments Presidents Xi and Trump Continue High Stakes Game of Chicken Over the weekend, President Trump used Twitter, his favorite communication medium, to uncork a new fusillade of tariff threats against China due to a lack of progress in the trade talks. According to Secretary of T...
Want More Sales? Try Owning a Restaurant
The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released Tuesday, suggests that owning a restaurant is likely to be a sales-boosting endeavor in 2019. Okay, it didn’t really say that, but the report holds some interesting insights for the food and agribusiness industri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the debate between farmers and exporters. On contracts executed in USD, farmers were claiming that they were losing money between the time the forex...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments Presidents Xi and Trump Continue High Stakes Game of Chicken Over the weekend, President Trump used Twitter, his favorite communication medium, to uncork a new fusillade of tariff threats against China due to a lack of progress in the trade talks. According to Secretary of T...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as its approach to building new international relationships also highlighted its overseas agricultural investment...
Pulses
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Freight
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 20 May)
Update for 20 May: Prices/data updated through Friday's close. 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to reflect prices through Friday's close. Launch Information: WPI is proud to introduce our FOB Prices and Ocea...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 20 May)
Update for 20 May 2019: Data updated for all listed routes. Let us know if you have any questions, comments, or suggestions! Update for 26 April 2019: Weekly data updates have been pushed, along with new routes added from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Enjoy! ...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 20 May)
Update for 20 May: Prices/data updated through Friday's close. 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to reflect prices through Friday's close. Launch Information: WPI is proud to introduce our FOB Prices and Ocea...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 20 May)
Update for 20 May 2019: Data updated for all listed routes. Let us know if you have any questions, comments, or suggestions! Update for 26 April 2019: Weekly data updates have been pushed, along with new routes added from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Enjoy! ...