Feed Grains
WASDE Corn
U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels and exports are increased 75 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.3...
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
WASDE Corn
U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels and exports are increased 75 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.3...
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Soy & Oilseeds
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soybean oil price outlook is projected at 45.0 cents per pound, up 4 cents. ...
WASDE Soymeal
U.S. soybean meal price outlook is unchanged at $400 per short ton...
WASDE Soybeans
U.S. soybean outlook is for higher exports, lower crush, residual use, and seed use. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.25 per bushel, up 10 cents...
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soybean oil price outlook is projected at 45.0 cents per pound, up 4 cents. ...
WASDE Soymeal
U.S. soybean meal price outlook is unchanged at $400 per short ton...
WASDE Soybeans
U.S. soybean outlook is for higher exports, lower crush, residual use, and seed use. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.25 per bushel, up 10 cents...
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...
Wheat
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Livestock
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise
Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its April WASDE report. For 80 percent of the datapoints surveyed by Reuters, the trade expects USDA to give them more bullish numbers (see table...
Biofuels
Infrastructure Plan: Ag Provisions and Politics
Last week, President Biden unveiled a major $2 trillion infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. From agriculture’s perspective, the plan is a mixed bag, but mostly positive proposals in terms of infrastructure upgrades. Inland waterways, ports, and in-land ports of entry would r...
RFS Waivers and RINs Prices
On 22 February, we noted that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear a challenge to the 10th District Court’s ruling on small refinery exemptions (SREs). In January, the Department of Justice, acting as counsel for the EPA, had requested that the Supreme Court not hear the case and instead...
New EPA Administrator Resetting the RFS Clock
The Senate confirmed Michael Regan to be Administrator of the U.S. EPA this week by a vote of 66-34. Since 2017, Regan has been Secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality and previously he worked at EPA in the air office. That experience will come in handy as he has to...
Infrastructure Plan: Ag Provisions and Politics
Last week, President Biden unveiled a major $2 trillion infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. From agriculture’s perspective, the plan is a mixed bag, but mostly positive proposals in terms of infrastructure upgrades. Inland waterways, ports, and in-land ports of entry would r...
RFS Waivers and RINs Prices
On 22 February, we noted that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear a challenge to the 10th District Court’s ruling on small refinery exemptions (SREs). In January, the Department of Justice, acting as counsel for the EPA, had requested that the Supreme Court not hear the case and instead...
New EPA Administrator Resetting the RFS Clock
The Senate confirmed Michael Regan to be Administrator of the U.S. EPA this week by a vote of 66-34. Since 2017, Regan has been Secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality and previously he worked at EPA in the air office. That experience will come in handy as he has to...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; South America Soy; Renewable Diesel
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated there was a rebound in soybean export sales in the week ending 25 February. Sales of soymeal and soyoil also increased last week compared to the previous week. Net soybean export sales last week totaled 334,000 MT for...
Farm Inputs
AM Outlook - Overbought?
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board this morning as beans and soyoil place new contract highs for the week, continuing strong up-trends. Crude oil is firmer, which underpins the soyoil market, though Asian values are a bit lower this AM. Higher world vegoil markets in t...
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
AM Outlook - Overbought?
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board this morning as beans and soyoil place new contract highs for the week, continuing strong up-trends. Crude oil is firmer, which underpins the soyoil market, though Asian values are a bit lower this AM. Higher world vegoil markets in t...
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back into feed. October crush firms to 1.07c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10c...
Equities
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Energy
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.2875/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.1525/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $406.8/short ton, down $2.3 f...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.605/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.0875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $409.1/short ton, up $2.7 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.2875/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.1525/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $406.8/short ton, down $2.3 f...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.605/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.0875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $409.1/short ton, up $2.7 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.5325/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.18/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.1275/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $406.3/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
Softs
2021 Sour Domestic Sugar Outlook
The MY 2020/21 outlook for sugar is for more domestic production and a reduction in imports, but with lower deliveries and increasing year-end stocks. Beet sugar production is up 133,662 short tons – raw value (STRV) based on higher extraction rates in Minnesota and North Dakota. Cane pro...
Agriculture and RCEP
Asian leaders gather this Sunday to hopefully put the final touches on a trade agreement called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The negotiations have taken eight years and, as usual, the word comprehensive does not apply to agriculture. Likely exempt from tariff reductio...
CFTC Approves Commodity Position Limits
One common thread running through part of the history of grain trading has been the subject of federally set limits on the size of positions that a trader could hold in grain and oilseed futures and options. On 15 October, the CFTC finally approved a new rule regarding commodity position limits...
2021 Sour Domestic Sugar Outlook
The MY 2020/21 outlook for sugar is for more domestic production and a reduction in imports, but with lower deliveries and increasing year-end stocks. Beet sugar production is up 133,662 short tons – raw value (STRV) based on higher extraction rates in Minnesota and North Dakota. Cane pro...
Agriculture and RCEP
Asian leaders gather this Sunday to hopefully put the final touches on a trade agreement called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The negotiations have taken eight years and, as usual, the word comprehensive does not apply to agriculture. Likely exempt from tariff reductio...
CFTC Approves Commodity Position Limits
One common thread running through part of the history of grain trading has been the subject of federally set limits on the size of positions that a trader could hold in grain and oilseed futures and options. On 15 October, the CFTC finally approved a new rule regarding commodity position limits...
Could Be More Bearish
Trading grain is not as sexy now as it was back in 2007-2008, but it could be worse. Orange juice futures were a big deal in 1983 when the movie Trading Places was a Hollywood hit but the underlying commodity has been falling out of favor in recent years. Global production and trade have been t...
Macroeconomics
Production Priority over Consumption
Americans consume more than the dietary guidelines recommend for meat and grains while under-consuming fruit and vegetables. Vegetable consumption has been rising and is now at around 70 percent of recommended levels. This has been helped in part by fresh, low-cost supplies from Mexico. The U.S...
Pandemic Not Fully Reflected
The Pew Research Center has attracted a lot of ink for its analysis of losses to middle income earners from the pandemic. Its data, derived from World Bank and IMF numbers, show the greatest loss of the middle class in South Asia, followed by East Asia. The advanced economies saw growth in the...
Russia and Argentina: Fighter Jets, COVID Vaccines, and Beef
During the administrations of Presidents Marci and Trump, relations between the U.S. and Argentina started to improve. For example, the Trump Department of Commerce accepted Argentina’s petition for a “changed circumstances” review of the countervailing duties placed on import...
Production Priority over Consumption
Americans consume more than the dietary guidelines recommend for meat and grains while under-consuming fruit and vegetables. Vegetable consumption has been rising and is now at around 70 percent of recommended levels. This has been helped in part by fresh, low-cost supplies from Mexico. The U.S...
Pandemic Not Fully Reflected
The Pew Research Center has attracted a lot of ink for its analysis of losses to middle income earners from the pandemic. Its data, derived from World Bank and IMF numbers, show the greatest loss of the middle class in South Asia, followed by East Asia. The advanced economies saw growth in the...
Russia and Argentina: Fighter Jets, COVID Vaccines, and Beef
During the administrations of Presidents Marci and Trump, relations between the U.S. and Argentina started to improve. For example, the Trump Department of Commerce accepted Argentina’s petition for a “changed circumstances” review of the countervailing duties placed on import...
You Will Buy This
The Livestock Environmental Assessment and Performance Partnership (LEAP) claims that pro-environment “ecolabels” are more appealing to shoppers. Meanwhile, Compassion in World Farming says consumers are willing to pay more for animal products with grown humanely labeling. Dispassio...
Pulses
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Freight
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to Pa...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 8 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA There hasn’t been this much news coverage of the Suez Canal since the crisis in 1956. Happily, the worst of the problem seems to be over with the grounded vessel now cleared and only the significant back-up of vessels to be dea...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to Pa...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 8 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA There hasn’t been this much news coverage of the Suez Canal since the crisis in 1956. Happily, the worst of the problem seems to be over with the grounded vessel now cleared and only the significant back-up of vessels to be dea...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The latest FAO report on Yemen shows that the 2020 grain harvest is down by about 5 percent at 365,000 MT and only covers less than 20 percent of the country's grain needs. Imports for 2021 are expected to be at 4.3 MMT: 3.2 MMT of w...