Feed Grains
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
PM Post - Mixed Day
THE OPEN May beans: 3 higher May meal: 3.80 higher May Soyoil: 2 lower May corn: 1 1/2 lower May wheat: 9 1/4 higher The market opened in line with trade expectations, as traders cleaned up positions into the weekend and report day next week. The markets were...
Soy & Oilseeds
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
PM Post - Mixed Day
THE OPEN May beans: 3 higher May meal: 3.80 higher May Soyoil: 2 lower May corn: 1 1/2 lower May wheat: 9 1/4 higher The market opened in line with trade expectations, as traders cleaned up positions into the weekend and report day next week. The markets were...
Wheat
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
PM Post - Mixed Day
THE OPEN May beans: 3 higher May meal: 3.80 higher May Soyoil: 2 lower May corn: 1 1/2 lower May wheat: 9 1/4 higher The market opened in line with trade expectations, as traders cleaned up positions into the weekend and report day next week. The markets were...
Livestock
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
Hog Herd up 4 Percent; Pork Demand Unpredictable
USDA released the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday. Some topline highlights: Total swine inventory on 1 March was 77.6 million head, 104 percent of March 2019, but 99 percent of 1 December 2019. Market hogs were above pre-report expectations Breeding herd was below pre-report...
Biofuels
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened mixed today with corn and soyoil posting new contract lows amid continued short selling. Commercial demand for wheat pulled that commodity higher and brought in buy wheat/sell corn spread trade. Commercial pricing in corn and the soy complex was notable today as bargain buying c...
Less Bad Situation
As pointed out by WPI contributor Jody Lefcourt, this is only the third time since the year 2000 that corn has been below $3.30/bushel. But agricultural commodity prices have thus far only fallen modestly relative to the scale of the current global disease and economic crisis. Moreover, overall...
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened mixed today with corn and soyoil posting new contract lows amid continued short selling. Commercial demand for wheat pulled that commodity higher and brought in buy wheat/sell corn spread trade. Commercial pricing in corn and the soy complex was notable today as bargain buying c...
Less Bad Situation
As pointed out by WPI contributor Jody Lefcourt, this is only the third time since the year 2000 that corn has been below $3.30/bushel. But agricultural commodity prices have thus far only fallen modestly relative to the scale of the current global disease and economic crisis. Moreover, overall...
Liquid Fuels Relief Request
The Renewable Fuels Association yesterday requested “equitable” relief for the “liquid fuel industries” given the coronavirus and the Russian/Saudi crude oil price war. In a statement, RFA noted: While the policy response to turbulence in the energy markets has so...
Farm Inputs
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back into feed. October crush firms to 1.07c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10c...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back into feed. October crush firms to 1.07c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10c...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Equities
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Energy
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.4875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.8025/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $322.9/short ton, up $1.2 fr...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.485/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, up $0.185 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $321.7/short ton, down $10.4 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.4875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.8025/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $322.9/short ton, up $1.2 fr...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.485/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, up $0.185 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $321.7/short ton, down $10.4 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.8675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $332.1/short ton, down $1.5 f...
Softs
The Next China
The country with the largest population is China and India is second but agricultural marketers are always looking for alternative markets. Indonesia has 265 million people living on 17,000 islands with a total arable land base of just 13 percent. While its import policies have been designed to...
Trade War Trade Impacts
The U.S.– China trade war has had a far more dramatic impact on American agriculture than it has had on farmers in the Middle Kingdom. In fiscal year 2017, the U.S. had a $16 billion agricultural trade surplus with China. In percentage terms, U.S. food sales to China that year were 142 pe...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Down 2 Percent, White Feather Broiler Rises By 11 Percent After peaking at RMB 40.28/kg ($5.73/kg) or RMB 18.27/lb. ($2.60/lb.) at the end of October, the national average live hog price has fallen for five straight weeks. Ending last week at RMB 31.61/kg ($4.50/kg) or...
The Next China
The country with the largest population is China and India is second but agricultural marketers are always looking for alternative markets. Indonesia has 265 million people living on 17,000 islands with a total arable land base of just 13 percent. While its import policies have been designed to...
Trade War Trade Impacts
The U.S.– China trade war has had a far more dramatic impact on American agriculture than it has had on farmers in the Middle Kingdom. In fiscal year 2017, the U.S. had a $16 billion agricultural trade surplus with China. In percentage terms, U.S. food sales to China that year were 142 pe...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Down 2 Percent, White Feather Broiler Rises By 11 Percent After peaking at RMB 40.28/kg ($5.73/kg) or RMB 18.27/lb. ($2.60/lb.) at the end of October, the national average live hog price has fallen for five straight weeks. Ending last week at RMB 31.61/kg ($4.50/kg) or...
A Faint Light from Golden Rice
As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disappointments is the organized, systematic opposition to nearly all the scientific and technical advances in food and agricultural production d...
Macroeconomics
The Economics of Flu
Inclusive Costs (NBER Working Paper No. 22137; March 2016): This study included former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and found that a large pandemic imposed the same inclusive economic costs as global warming - $570 billion/year. Collective Action (NBER Working Paper No. 17195; July 20...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were called to open lower on a mix of profit taking and lack of fundamental news, and futures responded accordingly. The CBOT was weaker through most of the day amid some testing of support levels, unwinding of spreads (particularly wheat/corn and soymeal/soyoil), and, of course, p...
Waste a Crisis
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel famously said, “You never let a serious crisis go to waste.” Farmers embraced that message and demanded compensation for falling commodity prices that they blamed on the coronavirus. A Wall Street Journal article last week cited a 10 percent drop in corn p...
The Economics of Flu
Inclusive Costs (NBER Working Paper No. 22137; March 2016): This study included former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and found that a large pandemic imposed the same inclusive economic costs as global warming - $570 billion/year. Collective Action (NBER Working Paper No. 17195; July 20...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were called to open lower on a mix of profit taking and lack of fundamental news, and futures responded accordingly. The CBOT was weaker through most of the day amid some testing of support levels, unwinding of spreads (particularly wheat/corn and soymeal/soyoil), and, of course, p...
Waste a Crisis
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel famously said, “You never let a serious crisis go to waste.” Farmers embraced that message and demanded compensation for falling commodity prices that they blamed on the coronavirus. A Wall Street Journal article last week cited a 10 percent drop in corn p...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with soymeal jumping higher and soybeans and wheat posting strong inverses. Corn opened lower and traded a lackluster session overnight. After the morning session opened, the soy complex and wheat markets continued to rally, and soymeal explosively so. Soybean stocks at Chinese...
Pulses
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Freight
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates It might be a good idea for all people in the grain business, with an eye to COVID-19, to read section 21 of GAFTA contract #27: “Prevention of Shipment”. This section, which is included in most GAFTA contracts, helps to clarify buyer/seller situation in the case of...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates It might be a good idea for all people in the grain business, with an eye to COVID-19, to read section 21 of GAFTA contract #27: “Prevention of Shipment”. This section, which is included in most GAFTA contracts, helps to clarify buyer/seller situation in the case of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt has seen very unseasonal rains recently and there is concern that the local wheat crop may be damaged due to flooding in many areas. The complaints and worries about rain are not country wide as some agricultural products, like alfal...