Feed Grains
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
March Corn Update
There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the export and ethanol forecasts by 75 million bushels and 25 million bushels, respectively, in the March WASDE. The result was a 100 million bushel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
March Corn Update
There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the export and ethanol forecasts by 75 million bushels and 25 million bushels, respectively, in the March WASDE. The result was a 100 million bushel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0575/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, down $1...
Soy & Oilseeds
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0575/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0575/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, down $1...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has reversed the downward trend it had been following since January. The buyers/consumers have certainly appreciated the $20 collapse, and they don’t want to miss the opportunity to lock in the current prices. Russia’s exports have reached 30 MMT,...
Wheat
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0575/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0575/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, down $1...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has reversed the downward trend it had been following since January. The buyers/consumers have certainly appreciated the $20 collapse, and they don’t want to miss the opportunity to lock in the current prices. Russia’s exports have reached 30 MMT,...
Livestock
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0575/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, down $1...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6225/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0925/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $310.8/short ton, up $4.9 from...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0575/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, down $1...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6225/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0925/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $310.8/short ton, up $4.9 from...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Biofuels
More Small Refinery Exemptions Granted
The EPA announced yesterday that it had granted five additional small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2017, reducing the number of pending petitions in the queue for that year as of 1 March from seven to two. This brings the total number of exemptions to 9.4 percent of the 19.28 billion gallons...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; EU Biodiesel, Palm Oil Futures; EU Rapeseed
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated U.S. exporters were quite successful selling soybeans to China and elsewhere in the week ending 7 March. Meanwhile, soymeal and soyoil export sales were relatively modest. Net soybean export sales for shipm...
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed; Annual Ethanol Use Down
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed The EPA released its proposed waiver for year-round E15 use today. As previously reported (click here), it will now be on a tight approval deadline before the summer driving season starts. Given the risk of regulatory uncertainty and needed infrastructure...
More Small Refinery Exemptions Granted
The EPA announced yesterday that it had granted five additional small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2017, reducing the number of pending petitions in the queue for that year as of 1 March from seven to two. This brings the total number of exemptions to 9.4 percent of the 19.28 billion gallons...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; EU Biodiesel, Palm Oil Futures; EU Rapeseed
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated U.S. exporters were quite successful selling soybeans to China and elsewhere in the week ending 7 March. Meanwhile, soymeal and soyoil export sales were relatively modest. Net soybean export sales for shipm...
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed; Annual Ethanol Use Down
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed The EPA released its proposed waiver for year-round E15 use today. As previously reported (click here), it will now be on a tight approval deadline before the summer driving season starts. Given the risk of regulatory uncertainty and needed infrastructure...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
Farm Inputs
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...
Phoney Trade War; Stop the Phony War on Biotech; False Plan for Africa
Phoney Trade War In September 1939, Hitler’s army imposed the infamous blitzkrieg attack on Poland and, with the complicity of the Soviet Union, the nation was completely subdued in just over a month. Historically it is known as the start of WWII, but because a half-year passed before Hit...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...
Phoney Trade War; Stop the Phony War on Biotech; False Plan for Africa
Phoney Trade War In September 1939, Hitler’s army imposed the infamous blitzkrieg attack on Poland and, with the complicity of the Soviet Union, the nation was completely subdued in just over a month. Historically it is known as the start of WWII, but because a half-year passed before Hit...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Equities
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Market Commentary
Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Market Commentary
Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...
Market Commentary
NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they are deemed too early at that time to be very meaningful. It will instead only use farmer surveys, weather/yield models and satellite data. Fie...
Energy
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0575/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, down $1...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6225/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0925/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $310.8/short ton, up $4.9 from...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0575/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, down $1...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6225/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0925/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 19 Soymeal closed at $310.8/short ton, up $4.9 from...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Softs
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...
China In-Country Analysis
Market Trends A Tale of Two Years With the shutdown of the U.S. government over (at least temporarily), its official statistics are now available to the general public for analysis. Similarly, China’s curtailment of the widespread distribution of official data, the result of a crackdown o...
Macroeconomics
Family Farms versus Big Ag—Again
The next U.S. presidential election occurs in about 20 months, but the campaign season is already well underway. President Donald Trump is more than halfway through his first term. He has a solid political base of supporters and a firm grip on the Republican Party, and his nomination to seek a...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 percent last month, the lowest level since May 2017. It should be noted that a figure below 50 p...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Feed Demand Continues to Drop Despite a decline in soybean imports, China’s soymeal inventories continue to rise as domestic feed demand remains soft. Even with the central government’s efforts to inject new stimulus into the economy to off...
Family Farms versus Big Ag—Again
The next U.S. presidential election occurs in about 20 months, but the campaign season is already well underway. President Donald Trump is more than halfway through his first term. He has a solid political base of supporters and a firm grip on the Republican Party, and his nomination to seek a...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 percent last month, the lowest level since May 2017. It should be noted that a figure below 50 p...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Feed Demand Continues to Drop Despite a decline in soybean imports, China’s soymeal inventories continue to rise as domestic feed demand remains soft. Even with the central government’s efforts to inject new stimulus into the economy to off...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Lower Food Prices Push Inflation Down in January With China’s major holiday occurring just around the corner in February, the country typically experiences a run-up in consumer prices during January as a result of increased food expenditures. This is particularly true of fres...
Pulses
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...