Feed Grains
PM Post - Lighter and Rangebound
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 1 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with more short-covering in grains and profit-taking in oilshare. Traders were unwindi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report
SPREADS Sep/Dec corn spreads continue to have heavy volume, with nearly 80K traded Monday, and is trading from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c today. The spread traded out to 13c before encountering short-covering activity. Short-covering was noted in corn yesterday, with September open interest...
PM Post - Lighter and Rangebound
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 1 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with more short-covering in grains and profit-taking in oilshare. Traders were unwindi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report
SPREADS Sep/Dec corn spreads continue to have heavy volume, with nearly 80K traded Monday, and is trading from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c today. The spread traded out to 13c before encountering short-covering activity. Short-covering was noted in corn yesterday, with September open interest...
AM Outlook - Prematurely Bearish Ahead of Report
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, with grains higher on short-covering. The massive wind storm that impacted the US, along with slightly lower corn crop ratings, has triggered more short-covering this morning. Wheat moves off its low of $4.90 as more of a sideways pattern...
Soy & Oilseeds
PM Post - Lighter and Rangebound
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 1 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with more short-covering in grains and profit-taking in oilshare. Traders were unwindi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report
SPREADS Sep/Dec corn spreads continue to have heavy volume, with nearly 80K traded Monday, and is trading from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c today. The spread traded out to 13c before encountering short-covering activity. Short-covering was noted in corn yesterday, with September open interest...
PM Post - Lighter and Rangebound
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 1 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with more short-covering in grains and profit-taking in oilshare. Traders were unwindi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report
SPREADS Sep/Dec corn spreads continue to have heavy volume, with nearly 80K traded Monday, and is trading from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c today. The spread traded out to 13c before encountering short-covering activity. Short-covering was noted in corn yesterday, with September open interest...
AM Outlook - Prematurely Bearish Ahead of Report
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, with grains higher on short-covering. The massive wind storm that impacted the US, along with slightly lower corn crop ratings, has triggered more short-covering this morning. Wheat moves off its low of $4.90 as more of a sideways pattern...
Wheat
PM Post - Lighter and Rangebound
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 1 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with more short-covering in grains and profit-taking in oilshare. Traders were unwindi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report
SPREADS Sep/Dec corn spreads continue to have heavy volume, with nearly 80K traded Monday, and is trading from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c today. The spread traded out to 13c before encountering short-covering activity. Short-covering was noted in corn yesterday, with September open interest...
PM Post - Lighter and Rangebound
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 1 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with more short-covering in grains and profit-taking in oilshare. Traders were unwindi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report
SPREADS Sep/Dec corn spreads continue to have heavy volume, with nearly 80K traded Monday, and is trading from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c today. The spread traded out to 13c before encountering short-covering activity. Short-covering was noted in corn yesterday, with September open interest...
AM Outlook - Prematurely Bearish Ahead of Report
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, with grains higher on short-covering. The massive wind storm that impacted the US, along with slightly lower corn crop ratings, has triggered more short-covering this morning. Wheat moves off its low of $4.90 as more of a sideways pattern...
Livestock
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.23/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.91/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.7325/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.23/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.91/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.7325/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Biofuels
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol
The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol
The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...
Market Commentary
The closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas over IP theft issues (along with suspected document destruction overnight at the facility) pressured soybeans in early trade. Corn benefited from unwinding of prior long soybeans/short corn spreads and additional export sales announcements...
Farm Inputs
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back into feed. October crush firms to 1.07c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10c...
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back into feed. October crush firms to 1.07c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10c...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Equities
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Energy
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.23/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.91/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.7325/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.955/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.675/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, down $1.6...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2375/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.0125/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.78/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, down $1.8...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.23/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.91/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.7325/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.955/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.675/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, down $1.6...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2375/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.0125/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.78/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, down $1.8...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.7875/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, down $1.2 fro...
Softs
Cocoa Canary
Given their inelasticity, staple agricultural commodities are a poor indicator of economic health. However, luxury food items like cocoa may be a better indicator of the world’s recovery from the coronavirus. The December contract was up about 2 percent in today’s trading but remain...
Food versus Fiber
A common debate about a decade ago was framed as food versus fuel; should crops traditionally used for food instead be converted into biofuel, especially during a food shortage. Opponents of biofuel may continue to argue in favor of only crops for food but there was also a forecast of declining...
WHO Guidance Effectiveness
The World Health Organization’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office issued an advisory recently that advised people to consume unsaturated fats such as those in fish, avocado, nuts, olive oil, soy, canola, sunflower and corn instead of the saturated fat in meat, butter, palm and coconut...
Cocoa Canary
Given their inelasticity, staple agricultural commodities are a poor indicator of economic health. However, luxury food items like cocoa may be a better indicator of the world’s recovery from the coronavirus. The December contract was up about 2 percent in today’s trading but remain...
Food versus Fiber
A common debate about a decade ago was framed as food versus fuel; should crops traditionally used for food instead be converted into biofuel, especially during a food shortage. Opponents of biofuel may continue to argue in favor of only crops for food but there was also a forecast of declining...
WHO Guidance Effectiveness
The World Health Organization’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office issued an advisory recently that advised people to consume unsaturated fats such as those in fish, avocado, nuts, olive oil, soy, canola, sunflower and corn instead of the saturated fat in meat, butter, palm and coconut...
The Next China
The country with the largest population is China and India is second but agricultural marketers are always looking for alternative markets. Indonesia has 265 million people living on 17,000 islands with a total arable land base of just 13 percent. While its import policies have been designed to...
Macroeconomics
Gold Price Spike
The value of gold has surpassed $2,000/troy ounce for the first time. It has climbed 32 percent in value thus far this year and, given the dovish stance of U.S. monetary policy, it is likely to rise some more, eventually hitting a correction. The last peak in value was in 2011. The price of gol...
Recession Impacts on Trade
Both the U.S. and Europe reported this week that the coronavirus pandemic sent their respective economies into the deepest plunge on record. A look at the impact of the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession for potential implications on agricultural markets from the current pandemic may or may not...
The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand
The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...
Gold Price Spike
The value of gold has surpassed $2,000/troy ounce for the first time. It has climbed 32 percent in value thus far this year and, given the dovish stance of U.S. monetary policy, it is likely to rise some more, eventually hitting a correction. The last peak in value was in 2011. The price of gol...
Recession Impacts on Trade
Both the U.S. and Europe reported this week that the coronavirus pandemic sent their respective economies into the deepest plunge on record. A look at the impact of the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession for potential implications on agricultural markets from the current pandemic may or may not...
The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand
The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened lower with continued pressure from excellent corn/soybean conditions ratings and increased chatter about above-trendline or record yields this year. Wheat futures were higher in range-bound trade as buy wheat/sell corn spread trading dominated the day. The lack of new daily expo...
Pulses
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Freight
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA News from the Middle East and North Africa is limited this week due to the Eid al Adha holidays in the area – the holiday is normally four or five days, depending on the country. The World Bank is providing $202 million for the...