Feed Grains
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Below 1 MMT Strong downstream demand from the feed industry as hog prices continue to surge pushed China’s nationwide soymeal inventory below the 1 MMT threshold. The total stood at 940,000 MT as of 14 September 2018, down 83,100 MT (-8.1 percent) from the...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Below 1 MMT Strong downstream demand from the feed industry as hog prices continue to surge pushed China’s nationwide soymeal inventory below the 1 MMT threshold. The total stood at 940,000 MT as of 14 September 2018, down 83,100 MT (-8.1 percent) from the...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS Afghanistan has received the first lot of Pakistan’s 40,000 MT wheat donation. The shipment of just under 400 MT was delivered at the same time the new Pakistani foreign minister was visiting the country. The Middle East/African region&rs...
Soy & Oilseeds
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Below 1 MMT Strong downstream demand from the feed industry as hog prices continue to surge pushed China’s nationwide soymeal inventory below the 1 MMT threshold. The total stood at 940,000 MT as of 14 September 2018, down 83,100 MT (-8.1 percent) from the...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush; Brazilian and U.S. Soy Plantings;, Canadian Oilseeds
NOPA Members’ Record August Crush The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) yesterday released its August soybean crush report. As expected, it indicated members crushed the largest amount ever for that month at 158.885 million bushels (4.32 MMT). That was down from 167.733 milli...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Below 1 MMT Strong downstream demand from the feed industry as hog prices continue to surge pushed China’s nationwide soymeal inventory below the 1 MMT threshold. The total stood at 940,000 MT as of 14 September 2018, down 83,100 MT (-8.1 percent) from the...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush; Brazilian and U.S. Soy Plantings;, Canadian Oilseeds
NOPA Members’ Record August Crush The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) yesterday released its August soybean crush report. As expected, it indicated members crushed the largest amount ever for that month at 158.885 million bushels (4.32 MMT). That was down from 167.733 milli...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
Wheat
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS Afghanistan has received the first lot of Pakistan’s 40,000 MT wheat donation. The shipment of just under 400 MT was delivered at the same time the new Pakistani foreign minister was visiting the country. The Middle East/African region&rs...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS Afghanistan has received the first lot of Pakistan’s 40,000 MT wheat donation. The shipment of just under 400 MT was delivered at the same time the new Pakistani foreign minister was visiting the country. The Middle East/African region&rs...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The initial (and minimum) revenue insurance price for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop has now been determined. It is based on the daily average of the July 2019 Chicago and KC wheat futures between 15 August and 15 September. The price for hard red winter wheat is $5.74 versus last year’s...
Livestock
More Placements, Fewer Marketings, Bearish Cattle on Feed Expected
The cattle and beef markets need clarity. The last Cattle on Feed report was fundamentally bearish, but prices have only gone higher since then. Packer margins are near record highs for this time of year, while cash cattle prices are near seasonal lows. Feedlot margins are theoretically in the...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
More Placements, Fewer Marketings, Bearish Cattle on Feed Expected
The cattle and beef markets need clarity. The last Cattle on Feed report was fundamentally bearish, but prices have only gone higher since then. Packer margins are near record highs for this time of year, while cash cattle prices are near seasonal lows. Feedlot margins are theoretically in the...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Biofuels
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The initial (and minimum) revenue insurance price for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop has now been determined. It is based on the daily average of the July 2019 Chicago and KC wheat futures between 15 August and 15 September. The price for hard red winter wheat is $5.74 versus last year’s...
It’s E15 Season Again
Yesterday was 16 September, which means that retailers can sell E15 again. Because of the evaporative volatility, it is not sold during the period of 1 June-15 September. However, the Trump administration is looking at granting a waiver for year-round sales, which could come prior to the Novemb...
RFS Issues Ahead
The EPA is busy with renewable fuel issues. It is reviewing comments on the proposed volume obligations for 2019, which will be finalized by 30 November, and considering a year-round waiver for E15 that it is expected to propose, perhaps before the 2018 elections. The agency is also dealing wit...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The initial (and minimum) revenue insurance price for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop has now been determined. It is based on the daily average of the July 2019 Chicago and KC wheat futures between 15 August and 15 September. The price for hard red winter wheat is $5.74 versus last year’s...
It’s E15 Season Again
Yesterday was 16 September, which means that retailers can sell E15 again. Because of the evaporative volatility, it is not sold during the period of 1 June-15 September. However, the Trump administration is looking at granting a waiver for year-round sales, which could come prior to the Novemb...
RFS Issues Ahead
The EPA is busy with renewable fuel issues. It is reviewing comments on the proposed volume obligations for 2019, which will be finalized by 30 November, and considering a year-round waiver for E15 that it is expected to propose, perhaps before the 2018 elections. The agency is also dealing wit...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Farm Inputs
Ag Review - July 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Falling Rupee and Higher Input Costs Make Agriculture a Tough Choice Two developments that the government of India (GOI) had not anticipated are higher crude oil prices and the rupee falling against the U.S. dollar. In discussions with the U.S. regarding market access, India moved to impose saf...
Ag Review - June 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. meat industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Ag Review - July 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Falling Rupee and Higher Input Costs Make Agriculture a Tough Choice Two developments that the government of India (GOI) had not anticipated are higher crude oil prices and the rupee falling against the U.S. dollar. In discussions with the U.S. regarding market access, India moved to impose saf...
Ag Review - June 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. meat industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria and Russia are said to be developing a shipping route between Tartus, Syria and Sebastopol, Crimea, mainly for the supply of grain to Syria but also for building materials. Syria will ship agricultural products to Sebastopol. “Rebe...
Equities
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded much the same way with corn and soybean futures markets mostly steady and wheat higher. Volume was less than average, which has been the case...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded much the same way with corn and soybean futures markets mostly steady and wheat higher. Volume was less than average, which has been the case...
Market Commentary
Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds into sellers despite some solid end user buying. Reports from farm country are that farmer sales are almost completely gone after the CBOT&rs...
Energy
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded much the same way with corn and soybean futures markets mostly steady and wheat higher. Volume was less than average, which has been the case...
Softs
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Demand for Quality Malt and Beer Increasing The number of microbreweries has grown from 20 to 120 in the past five years (2013-2018), up 500 percent. New international brands have come to India during this period, and now the trend is to sell bottled/canned craft beer. However, none of this mea...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Demand for Quality Malt and Beer Increasing The number of microbreweries has grown from 20 to 120 in the past five years (2013-2018), up 500 percent. New international brands have come to India during this period, and now the trend is to sell bottled/canned craft beer. However, none of this mea...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...
Macroeconomics
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Money Flows versus the Market
WPI’s recent research suggests December corn futures are likely to see additional selling pressure while a bottom may be approaching for November soybean futures. The wheat market outlook is mixed with funds reportedly holding a small long position but more recent data suggesting they hav...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Export Data Reflects Impact of New Tariffs U.S. agricultural exports to China i fell to 488,810.2 MT worth $480.6 million in July, the lowest volume and value levels for that month since 2007. With sorghum and wheat exports dropping to zero and soybean shipments at their lowest in...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Money Flows versus the Market
WPI’s recent research suggests December corn futures are likely to see additional selling pressure while a bottom may be approaching for November soybean futures. The wheat market outlook is mixed with funds reportedly holding a small long position but more recent data suggesting they hav...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Export Data Reflects Impact of New Tariffs U.S. agricultural exports to China i fell to 488,810.2 MT worth $480.6 million in July, the lowest volume and value levels for that month since 2007. With sorghum and wheat exports dropping to zero and soybean shipments at their lowest in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine Export Duties Last week the Argentine government announced an emergency plan to reduce the state deficit, which includes an export duty on agricultural products. Since last Tuesday, the duty rate of 4 pesos for every U.S. dollar of value on those exports was applied as of last Tuesday...
Pulses
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the 29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the 29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...