Feed Grains
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1925/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, up $4.7 from ye...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1925/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, up $4.7 from ye...
PM Post - Technical Covering Following a Bearish Week
THE OPEN November beans: 9 3/4 higher December meal: 2.40 higher December soyoil: 13 higher December corn: 2 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/4 higher Prices worked higher as the setback this week has been hefty. Shorts were covering with some also picking bo...
Soy & Oilseeds
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1925/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, up $4.7 from ye...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1925/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, up $4.7 from ye...
PM Post - Technical Covering Following a Bearish Week
THE OPEN November beans: 9 3/4 higher December meal: 2.40 higher December soyoil: 13 higher December corn: 2 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/4 higher Prices worked higher as the setback this week has been hefty. Shorts were covering with some also picking bo...
Wheat
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1925/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, up $4.7 from ye...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1925/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, up $4.7 from ye...
PM Post - Technical Covering Following a Bearish Week
THE OPEN November beans: 9 3/4 higher December meal: 2.40 higher December soyoil: 13 higher December corn: 2 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/4 higher Prices worked higher as the setback this week has been hefty. Shorts were covering with some also picking bo...
Livestock
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Ho-Hum Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports
Two key cattle reports came out this afternoon after the market close, but there won’t be much excitement generated from either. The monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report was spot-on with the industry’s pre-report expectations, and the Cattle Inventory report shows the herd unchanged...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Ho-Hum Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports
Two key cattle reports came out this afternoon after the market close, but there won’t be much excitement generated from either. The monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report was spot-on with the industry’s pre-report expectations, and the Cattle Inventory report shows the herd unchanged...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent at 11.5 million head on July 1, 2019. The inventory was 2 percent above July 1, 2018. This is the highest July 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.76 million head, 2 percent below ...
Biofuels
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Welcome and Unwelcome Biodiesel Policies Are Moving, Albeit Slowly
Two major policy issues for biodiesel are on the docket: 1) a review of the countervailing duties (CVDs) on biodiesel imports from Argentina, and 2) the retroactive extension of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC). The most likely time frame for action on either appears to be in the fourth quarter o...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Welcome and Unwelcome Biodiesel Policies Are Moving, Albeit Slowly
Two major policy issues for biodiesel are on the docket: 1) a review of the countervailing duties (CVDs) on biodiesel imports from Argentina, and 2) the retroactive extension of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC). The most likely time frame for action on either appears to be in the fourth quarter o...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs for Fifth Straight Week With feed demand continuing to soften as more previously unidentified African swine fever (ASF) cases come to light, soybean inventories rose again to reach 924,700 MT as of 5 July 2019. That was 29,700 MT (+3.3 percent) higher than the...
Farm Inputs
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 March 2019 Prices on the domestic market again declined in RUB expression but moved in different directions in USD expression. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price rose $4/MT to $228/MT FOB Black Sea, while purchase prices remained unchanged in RUB expr...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 March 2019 Prices on the domestic market again declined in RUB expression but moved in different directions in USD expression. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price rose $4/MT to $228/MT FOB Black Sea, while purchase prices remained unchanged in RUB expr...
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...
Equities
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Energy
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1925/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, up $4.7 from ye...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1925/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, up $4.7 from ye...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.99/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $312.8/short ton, down $0.8...
Softs
The Long View
Grain traders from commodity fund managers to the big multinational agribusinesses have consistently complained about the lack of profitable trading opportunities during the past five years or so. Big crops and large stockpiles of corn, wheat and soybeans in both the U.S. and the world drove pr...
Can’t Beat Beet Molasses
Molasses left over from the processing of beets for sugar is typically the poor cousin to the molasses that results from making sugar from sugarcane. Cane-based molasses has superior nutritional qualities and has historically earned a premium. USDA pricing from more than a decade ago shows a 50...
Agricultural Funds and ETFs
The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of the 21st century. This was based on studies indicating that commodity and equity prices often moved in opposite directions. The viability o...
The Long View
Grain traders from commodity fund managers to the big multinational agribusinesses have consistently complained about the lack of profitable trading opportunities during the past five years or so. Big crops and large stockpiles of corn, wheat and soybeans in both the U.S. and the world drove pr...
Can’t Beat Beet Molasses
Molasses left over from the processing of beets for sugar is typically the poor cousin to the molasses that results from making sugar from sugarcane. Cane-based molasses has superior nutritional qualities and has historically earned a premium. USDA pricing from more than a decade ago shows a 50...
Agricultural Funds and ETFs
The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of the 21st century. This was based on studies indicating that commodity and equity prices often moved in opposite directions. The viability o...
USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables
USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. While not huge, these modifications will likely add clarity and should have been implemented long ago. They will not affect the actual numbers b...
Macroeconomics
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Monthly Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years With China’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate falling to 6.2 percent, the economy received more bad news as food prices in June were up 8.3 percent against June 2018. This was their biggest...
Scavenger Fish; African Progress; Glass Half-full
Scavenger Fish To help offset the adverse impacts of the trade war, the Trump Administration has set up a program to purchase surplus commodities off the market, including $300 million worth of pork. The largest single beneficiary has been Brazilian-owned JBS, making 26 percent of the sales. Be...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw markets firm after yesterday’s higher close in corn. Commercial pricing was heavy yesterday in the corn market and the overnight session continued that trend. Wheat futures were higher as well in a dead-cat bounce from technically oversold conditions and firmer UK fe...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Monthly Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years With China’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate falling to 6.2 percent, the economy received more bad news as food prices in June were up 8.3 percent against June 2018. This was their biggest...
Scavenger Fish; African Progress; Glass Half-full
Scavenger Fish To help offset the adverse impacts of the trade war, the Trump Administration has set up a program to purchase surplus commodities off the market, including $300 million worth of pork. The largest single beneficiary has been Brazilian-owned JBS, making 26 percent of the sales. Be...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw markets firm after yesterday’s higher close in corn. Commercial pricing was heavy yesterday in the corn market and the overnight session continued that trend. Wheat futures were higher as well in a dead-cat bounce from technically oversold conditions and firmer UK fe...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw prices mostly lower as wheat futures came under pressure from the advancing HRW harvest. Trading volume was moderate overnight as funds continue to liquidate long positions. Open interest is growing for corn and wheat, likely indicating that end users are extending coverag...
Pulses
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Freight
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 July)
Update for 19 July 2019: Data updated for all routes/origins. Update for 17 July 2019: Data added for Romanian corn and wheat FOB and CNF Egypt. Data added for feed wheat FOB Black Sea and CNF various destinations. Tweet 4 May Update: Pushed a user interfa...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 July)
Update 19 July 2019: Data is updated for all origins/destinations. Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 18 July 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The bulls got hold of the freight markets this week and pushed things higher. This was the biggest single week jump in the...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Higher Brazil Freight Rates; EU Rapeseed; India’s Monsoon Issue
Not Much Improvement in U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 11 July was another challenging one for the U.S. soy complex. However, soybean exports last week were the highest since the week ending 21 March 2019. The report indicated ne...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 July)
Update for 19 July 2019: Data updated for all routes/origins. Update for 17 July 2019: Data added for Romanian corn and wheat FOB and CNF Egypt. Data added for feed wheat FOB Black Sea and CNF various destinations. Tweet 4 May Update: Pushed a user interfa...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 July)
Update 19 July 2019: Data is updated for all origins/destinations. Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 18 July 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The bulls got hold of the freight markets this week and pushed things higher. This was the biggest single week jump in the...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Higher Brazil Freight Rates; EU Rapeseed; India’s Monsoon Issue
Not Much Improvement in U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 11 July was another challenging one for the U.S. soy complex. However, soybean exports last week were the highest since the week ending 21 March 2019. The report indicated ne...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has advised that fuel prices will be reviewed every three months after recent increases of up to 30 percent. The subsidized fuel prices there will be based on world fuel prices as well as the value of the Egyptian pound against the USD...