Feed Grains
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this afternoon and there was a solid round of positioning/rolling contracts around that fact. Wheat futures were higher with no deliveries yet reg...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299/short ton, down $2 from y...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this afternoon and there was a solid round of positioning/rolling contracts around that fact. Wheat futures were higher with no deliveries yet reg...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299/short ton, down $2 from y...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
PM Post - Expirations and Rolls
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1/4 lower Jan meal: .40 lower Jan soyoil: 25 higher March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 2 higher The markets opened as called with grains firmer against beans and meal. Wheat prices are firmer as they were well bid before the open and are con...
Soy & Oilseeds
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this afternoon and there was a solid round of positioning/rolling contracts around that fact. Wheat futures were higher with no deliveries yet reg...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299/short ton, down $2 from y...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this afternoon and there was a solid round of positioning/rolling contracts around that fact. Wheat futures were higher with no deliveries yet reg...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299/short ton, down $2 from y...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
PM Post - Expirations and Rolls
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1/4 lower Jan meal: .40 lower Jan soyoil: 25 higher March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 2 higher The markets opened as called with grains firmer against beans and meal. Wheat prices are firmer as they were well bid before the open and are con...
Wheat
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this afternoon and there was a solid round of positioning/rolling contracts around that fact. Wheat futures were higher with no deliveries yet reg...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299/short ton, down $2 from y...
PM Post - Expirations and Rolls
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1/4 lower Jan meal: .40 lower Jan soyoil: 25 higher March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 2 higher The markets opened as called with grains firmer against beans and meal. Wheat prices are firmer as they were well bid before the open and are con...
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this afternoon and there was a solid round of positioning/rolling contracts around that fact. Wheat futures were higher with no deliveries yet reg...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299/short ton, down $2 from y...
PM Post - Expirations and Rolls
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1/4 lower Jan meal: .40 lower Jan soyoil: 25 higher March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 2 higher The markets opened as called with grains firmer against beans and meal. Wheat prices are firmer as they were well bid before the open and are con...
Technical Views - Lows Begetting New Lows
SPREADS Crush margins continue to firm with March trading to 1.02c/bu. Oilshare trades back up to 34.0%. Jan/March beans trade to ctr lows at 14 1/4c. Dec/March corn trades from 10 1/4c to 10 1/2c, while Dec 19/Dec 20 trades from 25 1/2c to 26c. Dec wheat/corn trad...
Livestock
Cold Storage Report Features More Pork, Poultry
The latest Cold Storage report from USDA (which features commodity stocks as of 31 October 2019) shows growing supplies of pork and chicken and a modest tightening in beef supplies. Total red meat supplies were up 1 percent from September but down 1 percent from year-ago levels. &...
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this afternoon and there was a solid round of positioning/rolling contracts around that fact. Wheat futures were higher with no deliveries yet reg...
Cattle on Feed
• USDA Estimates: U.S. Cattle on Feed were up 1 percent on November 1, 2019. • Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.48 million head, 10 percent above 2018. • Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.88 million head, 1 percent below 2018.  ...
Cold Storage Report Features More Pork, Poultry
The latest Cold Storage report from USDA (which features commodity stocks as of 31 October 2019) shows growing supplies of pork and chicken and a modest tightening in beef supplies. Total red meat supplies were up 1 percent from September but down 1 percent from year-ago levels. &...
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this afternoon and there was a solid round of positioning/rolling contracts around that fact. Wheat futures were higher with no deliveries yet reg...
Cattle on Feed
• USDA Estimates: U.S. Cattle on Feed were up 1 percent on November 1, 2019. • Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.48 million head, 10 percent above 2018. • Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.88 million head, 1 percent below 2018.  ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299/short ton, down $2 from y...
Biofuels
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn moved to slight losses in extremely low volume trading. Wheat gave back most of its gains from yesterday, signaling that yesterday’s r...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading in soyoil. The ongoing U.S. harvest remains a bearish factor with cash sales accelerating and weakening basis levels. Overall, the market wa...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn moved to slight losses in extremely low volume trading. Wheat gave back most of its gains from yesterday, signaling that yesterday’s r...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading in soyoil. The ongoing U.S. harvest remains a bearish factor with cash sales accelerating and weakening basis levels. Overall, the market wa...
Odd Ethanol Economics
The Golden state is being challenged over the saying, as goes California, so goes the Nation. Egg farmers in other states are challenging Sacramento’s dictate on how they farm, and the Trump Administration is challenging the state on at least two fronts: the imposition of its own stiffer...
Farm Inputs
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back into feed. October crush firms to 1.07c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10c...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back into feed. October crush firms to 1.07c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10c...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 March 2019 Prices on the domestic market again declined in RUB expression but moved in different directions in USD expression. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price rose $4/MT to $228/MT FOB Black Sea, while purchase prices remained unchanged in RUB expr...
Equities
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Energy
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299/short ton, down $2 from y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.685/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.09/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.01/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $301/short ton, up $1.2 from yes...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 437,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 83 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 788,000 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 36 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week ave...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299/short ton, down $2 from y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.685/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.09/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.01/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $301/short ton, up $1.2 from yes...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 437,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 83 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 788,000 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 36 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week ave...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6675/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.05/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $2.2 f...
Softs
A Faint Light from Golden Rice
As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disappointments is the organized, systematic opposition to nearly all the scientific and technical advances in food and agricultural production d...
Alternative Crops
U.S. cotton farmers are lamenting a season in which they planted a lot of acres, faced lower yields due to weather, lower prices due to competition from Brazil, and restricted markets due to the U.S. - China trade war. Still, natural fibers remain a buoyant market and cotton was always a fallba...
The Long View
Grain traders from commodity fund managers to the big multinational agribusinesses have consistently complained about the lack of profitable trading opportunities during the past five years or so. Big crops and large stockpiles of corn, wheat and soybeans in both the U.S. and the world drove pr...
A Faint Light from Golden Rice
As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disappointments is the organized, systematic opposition to nearly all the scientific and technical advances in food and agricultural production d...
Alternative Crops
U.S. cotton farmers are lamenting a season in which they planted a lot of acres, faced lower yields due to weather, lower prices due to competition from Brazil, and restricted markets due to the U.S. - China trade war. Still, natural fibers remain a buoyant market and cotton was always a fallba...
The Long View
Grain traders from commodity fund managers to the big multinational agribusinesses have consistently complained about the lack of profitable trading opportunities during the past five years or so. Big crops and large stockpiles of corn, wheat and soybeans in both the U.S. and the world drove pr...
Can’t Beat Beet Molasses
Molasses left over from the processing of beets for sugar is typically the poor cousin to the molasses that results from making sugar from sugarcane. Cane-based molasses has superior nutritional qualities and has historically earned a premium. USDA pricing from more than a decade ago shows a 50...
Macroeconomics
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Trouble Targeting
USDA has targeted select foreign markets for increased attention this year, including sending trade missions to solicit sales. The success to date has been mixed. In part this is due to head winds such as the high value of the dollar and slower economic growth in countries impacted by the trade...
China’s Dinner Demographics
China’s food security concerns and import needs will shift in the years ahead regardless of the outcome of the trade war with the U.S. Demographics are destiny and, according to the OECD, China’s decades-long low birth rate means that its population begins to decline starting...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Trouble Targeting
USDA has targeted select foreign markets for increased attention this year, including sending trade missions to solicit sales. The success to date has been mixed. In part this is due to head winds such as the high value of the dollar and slower economic growth in countries impacted by the trade...
China’s Dinner Demographics
China’s food security concerns and import needs will shift in the years ahead regardless of the outcome of the trade war with the U.S. Demographics are destiny and, according to the OECD, China’s decades-long low birth rate means that its population begins to decline starting...
Scale’s Advantage
President Trump is accused of not knowing the facts and not even caring that he doesn’t know them. The same could be said of his political opponents. China’s agriculture ministry announced that it would be reducing the number of small-scale slaughterhouses in order to improve preven...
Pulses
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Freight
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 November)
Update for 22 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price. Freight Comments for 21 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 November)
Data Updated Through: 22 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt. Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 21 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Many analysts have been using the term &ldq...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS It looks to be good news for grain importers as most experts in the ocean freight business are expecting dry-bulk freight rates to be steady to lower over the next year. The long expected rally in prices due to new low-sulfur requirement level...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 November)
Update for 22 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price. Freight Comments for 21 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 November)
Data Updated Through: 22 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt. Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 21 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Many analysts have been using the term &ldq...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS It looks to be good news for grain importers as most experts in the ocean freight business are expecting dry-bulk freight rates to be steady to lower over the next year. The long expected rally in prices due to new low-sulfur requirement level...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS: As had been rumored in recent weeks, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan have now signed an official “memorandum of understanding” for the import of Russian and Kazakh wheat. However, according to the deputy Ag Minister the agreement will...