Feed Grains
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.6775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $289.1/short ton, down $0.7 from...
Soy & Oilseeds
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.6775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $289.1/short ton, down $0.7 from...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.6775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $289.1/short ton, down $0.7 from...
PM Post - The Market Has Changed
THE OPEN July beans: 4 3/4 higher July meal: .80 higher July soyoil: 25 higher July corn: 1/4 higher July wheat: 2 3/4 lower The markets opened as called but turned two-sided after the initial strength led by weaker wheat and meal. Oilshare traded higher with...
Wheat
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.6775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $289.1/short ton, down $0.7 from...
Livestock
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.6775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $289.1/short ton, down $0.7 from...
Biofuels
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
April Ethanol Corn Crush; June Estimated Forecast
In a sign of the times, corn crushed for ethanol in April, during the peak of the COVID-19 lockdown, was down more than 44 percent from April 2019, while corn crushed for alcoholic beverages was up 12 percent from April 2019 according to USDA’s Grain Crushing and Co-Production report rele...
2020 Proposed Biofuel Volume Rule Teed Up
EPA’s proposed biofuel 2021 required volume obligation (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for more than two weeks (OMB received the proposal on 13 May). When it is published – assuming no changes from OMB - the expected volumes are detailed below. It i...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
April Ethanol Corn Crush; June Estimated Forecast
In a sign of the times, corn crushed for ethanol in April, during the peak of the COVID-19 lockdown, was down more than 44 percent from April 2019, while corn crushed for alcoholic beverages was up 12 percent from April 2019 according to USDA’s Grain Crushing and Co-Production report rele...
2020 Proposed Biofuel Volume Rule Teed Up
EPA’s proposed biofuel 2021 required volume obligation (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for more than two weeks (OMB received the proposal on 13 May). When it is published – assuming no changes from OMB - the expected volumes are detailed below. It i...
Ethanol at $0.45 per Gallon, … Under Federal Payments
As we noted yesterday, the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act amends the CCC Charter Act to allow assistance to agricultural processing plants in the event of a public health emergency in order to assure the continuation of markets for agricultural...
Farm Inputs
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back into feed. October crush firms to 1.07c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10c...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back into feed. October crush firms to 1.07c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10c...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Equities
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Energy
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.6775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $289.1/short ton, down $0.7 from...
Export Sale
Wheat: Net sales of 179,500 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 14 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 637,500 MT for 2019/2020 were up 49 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.29/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.6775/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $289.8/short ton, up $3.5 from y...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.6775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $289.1/short ton, down $0.7 from...
Export Sale
Wheat: Net sales of 179,500 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 14 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 637,500 MT for 2019/2020 were up 49 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.29/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.6775/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $289.8/short ton, up $3.5 from y...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.24/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.12/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.575/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $286.3/short ton, up $2.6 from yest...
Softs
WHO Guidance Effectiveness
The World Health Organization’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office issued an advisory recently that advised people to consume unsaturated fats such as those in fish, avocado, nuts, olive oil, soy, canola, sunflower and corn instead of the saturated fat in meat, butter, palm and coconut...
The Next China
The country with the largest population is China and India is second but agricultural marketers are always looking for alternative markets. Indonesia has 265 million people living on 17,000 islands with a total arable land base of just 13 percent. While its import policies have been designed to...
Trade War Trade Impacts
The U.S.– China trade war has had a far more dramatic impact on American agriculture than it has had on farmers in the Middle Kingdom. In fiscal year 2017, the U.S. had a $16 billion agricultural trade surplus with China. In percentage terms, U.S. food sales to China that year were 142 pe...
WHO Guidance Effectiveness
The World Health Organization’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office issued an advisory recently that advised people to consume unsaturated fats such as those in fish, avocado, nuts, olive oil, soy, canola, sunflower and corn instead of the saturated fat in meat, butter, palm and coconut...
The Next China
The country with the largest population is China and India is second but agricultural marketers are always looking for alternative markets. Indonesia has 265 million people living on 17,000 islands with a total arable land base of just 13 percent. While its import policies have been designed to...
Trade War Trade Impacts
The U.S.– China trade war has had a far more dramatic impact on American agriculture than it has had on farmers in the Middle Kingdom. In fiscal year 2017, the U.S. had a $16 billion agricultural trade surplus with China. In percentage terms, U.S. food sales to China that year were 142 pe...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Down 2 Percent, White Feather Broiler Rises By 11 Percent After peaking at RMB 40.28/kg ($5.73/kg) or RMB 18.27/lb. ($2.60/lb.) at the end of October, the national average live hog price has fallen for five straight weeks. Ending last week at RMB 31.61/kg ($4.50/kg) or...
Macroeconomics
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
Ag Review - May 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the COVID-19 impact on workers in the food sector, the interrelationship between supply/demand and exchange rates, developments in the Middle East, North Africa and China, details...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Monthly Summary April Activity Shows Market Volatility Easing Post Shutdown The novel coronavirus outbreak and lengthy shutdown across China sent the futures markets to new heights in terms of trading activity during the first four months of 2020. For the first quarter, only No. 2 soybeans and...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
Ag Review - May 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the COVID-19 impact on workers in the food sector, the interrelationship between supply/demand and exchange rates, developments in the Middle East, North Africa and China, details...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Monthly Summary April Activity Shows Market Volatility Easing Post Shutdown The novel coronavirus outbreak and lengthy shutdown across China sent the futures markets to new heights in terms of trading activity during the first four months of 2020. For the first quarter, only No. 2 soybeans and...
Inside the Food and Ag Economy
Seaboard, a relatively smaller meat processor, reported that 22 percent of its employees tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. That is not too far behind New York City where 25 percent of the population tested positive. Meat packing is the largest employer in food manufacturing, absorbing nea...
Pulses
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Freight
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, west of Karachi, has received its first vessel of wheat and fertilizer that is being transshipped by truck to Afghanistan. Gwadar is a deep draft port that can handle large vessels and offers a shorter r...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, west of Karachi, has received its first vessel of wheat and fertilizer that is being transshipped by truck to Afghanistan. Gwadar is a deep draft port that can handle large vessels and offers a shorter r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Gemcorp Commodities is reportedly supplying 200,000 MT of Russian wheat to Ethiopia with the results of a recent tender. Shipment will be of 11.5 percent protein wheat. Gemcorp supplied Ukraine and Argentina wheat to Ethiopia in 2019...