Market Commentary: Holding Pattern
Two-sided, narrow trading continues as uncertainty competes with certainty over where true value is headed. In an almost hands off manner, soybeans failed to trade at its usual 25-cent minimum daily spread, and corn barely broke a 10-cent range. There is plenty of macro suspense – the Rus...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 Sept.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 29 September 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another week of trying, but failing, to rally in dry-bulk markets. Dry-bulk freight markets made a valent effort to move higher but could not find physical support. Vessel owners’ hopes for better values...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 Sept.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 29 September 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another week of trying, but failing, to rally in dry-bulk markets. Dry-bulk freight markets made a valent effort to move higher but could not find physical support. Vessel owners’ hopes for better values...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 22 September wheat production was 99.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 72.9 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.8 MT/ha to 3.6 MT/ha. Harvesting has been completed on 27.4...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 September 2022 As of 15 September, Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 132.3 MMT versus 99.4 MMT a year ago, of which 96.4 MMT is wheat in bunker weight, 23 MMT is barley, and 780,800 MT is corn. These numbers are t...
Market Commentary: Russia’s Annexation Effort Creates Turnaround Tuesday at CBOT
The CBOT rallied sharply on Tuesday with Russia’s actions in Ukraine again at the forefront of the market’s mind. Russia is trying to annex four parts of Ukraine this week and implications that it is building troop reserves and resources suggest no peaceful end to the war is coming...
Market Commentary: Wheat Grinds Higher on Uncertain Ukraine Export Outlook; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week amid a general lack of fresh news. Corn and soybeans both drifted lower in quiet trade and extended Tuesday’s pullback and reversal, respectively. Wheat futures pushed higher as the Ukraine export corridor agreement remains in jeopardy while U.S. basis level...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 September 2022 As of 7 September, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 125 MMT of which 88.2 MMT is wheat, 21.2 MMT is barley, and 35,000 MT corn (the corn harvest has just started). These numbers are the weight co...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed After Dollar Rallies on Inflation Data
With the September WASDE now past, the CBOT largely entered consolidation mode on Tuesday with a renewed focus on weather as yields are finalized, export demand, and, of yeah, inflation. August inflation was down from July but above expectations, which threw macroeconomic markets into a tizzy a...
Russia Ignores Fungability
Russia is complaining that Ukraine’s grain exports are not going to poor countries, undermining the intent of the grain corridor agreement. There is the threat to undue or rewrite that agreement. More than 2 million tons of grain have been shipped over the last five weeks and while not al...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: August–2 September 2022 Grain markets were volatile. While global markets remain bullish, Russian traders are still speculating and expecting a bigger bear. This, of course, is possible at the early stage of the game and especially with a forecast for a record crop...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Weather; Argentine “Soy Dollar” Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with a weekend of dry weather offering support to the corn market and sparking a 10-cent rally in that commodity. Conversely, soybean futures were under pressure from Argentina’s now-confirmed “soy dollar” that is intended to increase farme...
Market Commentary: Holding Pattern
Two-sided, narrow trading continues as uncertainty competes with certainty over where true value is headed. In an almost hands off manner, soybeans failed to trade at its usual 25-cent minimum daily spread, and corn barely broke a 10-cent range. There is plenty of macro suspense – the Rus...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 Sept.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 29 September 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another week of trying, but failing, to rally in dry-bulk markets. Dry-bulk freight markets made a valent effort to move higher but could not find physical support. Vessel owners’ hopes for better values...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 Sept.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 29 September 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another week of trying, but failing, to rally in dry-bulk markets. Dry-bulk freight markets made a valent effort to move higher but could not find physical support. Vessel owners’ hopes for better values...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 22 September wheat production was 99.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 72.9 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.8 MT/ha to 3.6 MT/ha. Harvesting has been completed on 27.4...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 September 2022 As of 15 September, Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 132.3 MMT versus 99.4 MMT a year ago, of which 96.4 MMT is wheat in bunker weight, 23 MMT is barley, and 780,800 MT is corn. These numbers are t...
Market Commentary: Russia’s Annexation Effort Creates Turnaround Tuesday at CBOT
The CBOT rallied sharply on Tuesday with Russia’s actions in Ukraine again at the forefront of the market’s mind. Russia is trying to annex four parts of Ukraine this week and implications that it is building troop reserves and resources suggest no peaceful end to the war is coming...
Market Commentary: Wheat Grinds Higher on Uncertain Ukraine Export Outlook; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week amid a general lack of fresh news. Corn and soybeans both drifted lower in quiet trade and extended Tuesday’s pullback and reversal, respectively. Wheat futures pushed higher as the Ukraine export corridor agreement remains in jeopardy while U.S. basis level...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 September 2022 As of 7 September, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 125 MMT of which 88.2 MMT is wheat, 21.2 MMT is barley, and 35,000 MT corn (the corn harvest has just started). These numbers are the weight co...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed After Dollar Rallies on Inflation Data
With the September WASDE now past, the CBOT largely entered consolidation mode on Tuesday with a renewed focus on weather as yields are finalized, export demand, and, of yeah, inflation. August inflation was down from July but above expectations, which threw macroeconomic markets into a tizzy a...
Russia Ignores Fungability
Russia is complaining that Ukraine’s grain exports are not going to poor countries, undermining the intent of the grain corridor agreement. There is the threat to undue or rewrite that agreement. More than 2 million tons of grain have been shipped over the last five weeks and while not al...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: August–2 September 2022 Grain markets were volatile. While global markets remain bullish, Russian traders are still speculating and expecting a bigger bear. This, of course, is possible at the early stage of the game and especially with a forecast for a record crop...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Weather; Argentine “Soy Dollar” Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with a weekend of dry weather offering support to the corn market and sparking a 10-cent rally in that commodity. Conversely, soybean futures were under pressure from Argentina’s now-confirmed “soy dollar” that is intended to increase farme...