Unnecessary Angst
The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologue but there was little discernable impact when Russia annexed Crimea in late winter of 2014. Wheat production and exports continued to expan...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Replaces Weather
With little new in the fundamentals to move the market it is instead being pushed by inflation and geopolitics. Funds are buying on both measures going into an uncertain weekend and open interest is up. President Biden’s comments at yesterday’s press conference did not help matters...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 January 2022 The Russian domestic market prices changed insignificantly and mainly in southern regions that are more sensitive to international price changes and dollar rate. As for export prices, a key internal factor that influenced them is the decrease of export...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Tensions, Short-Covering Rally Wheat; Corn Rallies Last-Minute; Soyoil Crashes
The CBOT came back from its three-day holiday to find soyoil crashing lower under technical selling and position liquidation. The day’s soymeal trade had the feeling of a market ‘bubble” starting to pop and traders were aggressively getting out of positions. Gains in soyoil an...
WASDE Corn
U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 January 2022 The first week of January was holiday season, as usual, so it was impossible to register any changes on the Russian grain market. Due to the political situation in Kazakhstan, the Russian ruble got weaker and domestic prices expressed in U.S. dollar decre...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 December 2021 The last week of December on the Russian grain market was very calm. General trends were downward. Market players are not happy with decreasing prices on the world markets and the prospect of further growth of export duties. Export milling...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased at higher rates than during the previous week due to growing grain export duties and global downward trends. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $332/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price...
Unnecessary Angst
The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologue but there was little discernable impact when Russia annexed Crimea in late winter of 2014. Wheat production and exports continued to expan...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Replaces Weather
With little new in the fundamentals to move the market it is instead being pushed by inflation and geopolitics. Funds are buying on both measures going into an uncertain weekend and open interest is up. President Biden’s comments at yesterday’s press conference did not help matters...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 January 2022 The Russian domestic market prices changed insignificantly and mainly in southern regions that are more sensitive to international price changes and dollar rate. As for export prices, a key internal factor that influenced them is the decrease of export...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Tensions, Short-Covering Rally Wheat; Corn Rallies Last-Minute; Soyoil Crashes
The CBOT came back from its three-day holiday to find soyoil crashing lower under technical selling and position liquidation. The day’s soymeal trade had the feeling of a market ‘bubble” starting to pop and traders were aggressively getting out of positions. Gains in soyoil an...
WASDE Corn
U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 January 2022 The first week of January was holiday season, as usual, so it was impossible to register any changes on the Russian grain market. Due to the political situation in Kazakhstan, the Russian ruble got weaker and domestic prices expressed in U.S. dollar decre...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 December 2021 The last week of December on the Russian grain market was very calm. General trends were downward. Market players are not happy with decreasing prices on the world markets and the prospect of further growth of export duties. Export milling...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased at higher rates than during the previous week due to growing grain export duties and global downward trends. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $332/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price...