Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 August 2018 Grain prices increased due to rising prices on international markets and weakening of the ruble. Milling wheat export prices rose $3/MT to $235/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew to $187-192/MT CPT-Black Sea port. While the average fee...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was well supported last week. The bearish USDA WASDE report didn’t have a strong impact on the cash prices in Russia and Ukraine. The domestic price in southern Russia rallied about $18/MT last week. In RUB expression, it is approaching the highs seen in...
The Bear is Back
USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight with little fresh direction, and prices were mostly a bit higher. Much of the selling seemed to be liquidation of presumably profitable long positions. New short positions just ahead of Friday’s WASDE would require that the sellers have stron...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 July-3 August 2018 Expecting international market prices to grow further, Russian grain traders limited their offer. Milling wheat export prices increased $9/MT to $232/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports climbed to $179/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average...
WASDE Report Looms
USDA will release its August WASDE at Noon EDT Friday, 10 August. The August WASDE is always highly anticipated since it includes NASS’ first estimate of yields and production for corn and soybeans based on actual surveys. But interest in this year’s August WASDE is is higher than u...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea wheat market was extremely firm last week with domestic market prices in South Russia $9/MT higher while the FOB market rose $13/MT. Despite the rally, Russian 12.5 percent protein wheat remains the cheapest wheat of similar quality in the world, quoted $20/MT cheape...
Market Commentary
President Trump has called for 25 percent tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports, possibly as early as late September, and this has thrown a wet blanket over the soybean futures market. No one knows what will happen or when, but the assumption is that the hoped-for resumption of off...
Corn Has a Story Too
There are two analytical common threads dominating discussions of the world’s 2018/19 crop cycle thus far. One is the rather spectacular tightening of the world wheat supply/demand outlook, and the other is President Trump’s attacks on the current structure of world trade. Some migh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 August 2018 Grain prices increased due to rising prices on international markets and weakening of the ruble. Milling wheat export prices rose $3/MT to $235/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew to $187-192/MT CPT-Black Sea port. While the average fee...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was well supported last week. The bearish USDA WASDE report didn’t have a strong impact on the cash prices in Russia and Ukraine. The domestic price in southern Russia rallied about $18/MT last week. In RUB expression, it is approaching the highs seen in...
The Bear is Back
USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight with little fresh direction, and prices were mostly a bit higher. Much of the selling seemed to be liquidation of presumably profitable long positions. New short positions just ahead of Friday’s WASDE would require that the sellers have stron...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 July-3 August 2018 Expecting international market prices to grow further, Russian grain traders limited their offer. Milling wheat export prices increased $9/MT to $232/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports climbed to $179/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average...
WASDE Report Looms
USDA will release its August WASDE at Noon EDT Friday, 10 August. The August WASDE is always highly anticipated since it includes NASS’ first estimate of yields and production for corn and soybeans based on actual surveys. But interest in this year’s August WASDE is is higher than u...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea wheat market was extremely firm last week with domestic market prices in South Russia $9/MT higher while the FOB market rose $13/MT. Despite the rally, Russian 12.5 percent protein wheat remains the cheapest wheat of similar quality in the world, quoted $20/MT cheape...
Market Commentary
President Trump has called for 25 percent tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports, possibly as early as late September, and this has thrown a wet blanket over the soybean futures market. No one knows what will happen or when, but the assumption is that the hoped-for resumption of off...
Corn Has a Story Too
There are two analytical common threads dominating discussions of the world’s 2018/19 crop cycle thus far. One is the rather spectacular tightening of the world wheat supply/demand outlook, and the other is President Trump’s attacks on the current structure of world trade. Some migh...