World Perspectives

Recent Australia Analysis

CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments

CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...

Friday Intrigue

Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks:  U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and reduced production - as indicated in the Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports. (The G...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall across the UK, western and central Europe, and western Ukraine. Parts of northern Germany and southeast Romania and Bulgaria missed these rains,...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT.   Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...

Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples

Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Thoughts from the August WASDE

Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments

CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...

Friday Intrigue

Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks:  U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and reduced production - as indicated in the Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports. (The G...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall across the UK, western and central Europe, and western Ukraine. Parts of northern Germany and southeast Romania and Bulgaria missed these rains,...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT.   Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...

Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples

Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Thoughts from the August WASDE

Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

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