World Perspectives

Recent Australia Analysis

China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s

China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washington trade community to speculate that the White House will emphasize USMCA passage in the next few weeks. President Trump has backed away from...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Estimates:  U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks.  Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. ...

wheat

Wheat Over-Supported

Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The st...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Reports:  The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks.  Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30.  Projected imports are...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA wheat estimates: 2019/20 U.S. wheat supply and demand is unchanged. The season-average farm price down 20 cents to $4.80 per bushel the marketing year (MY). Global wheat prices are expected to be restrained for the rest of the MY. The global outlook for wheat this month is for lower suppli...

wheat feed-grains

Drought Shifting Consumption

Southeast Asia has experienced droughty conditions the past several months and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia/Pacific region says it is part of a longer-term meteorological trend. The change is most adversely impacting rice production and will likely benefit whea...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...

EU-U.S. Deal on Beef

This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...

Reading China; Bully Strategy

Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks.  Supplies are reduced as a smaller carry-in is not completely offset by higher production.  Forecast 2019/20 U.S. wheat production is raised 18 mil...

feed-grains wheat

Hazards of Forecasting

Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...

China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s

China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washington trade community to speculate that the White House will emphasize USMCA passage in the next few weeks. President Trump has backed away from...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Estimates:  U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks.  Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. ...

wheat

Wheat Over-Supported

Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The st...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Reports:  The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks.  Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30.  Projected imports are...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA wheat estimates: 2019/20 U.S. wheat supply and demand is unchanged. The season-average farm price down 20 cents to $4.80 per bushel the marketing year (MY). Global wheat prices are expected to be restrained for the rest of the MY. The global outlook for wheat this month is for lower suppli...

wheat feed-grains

Drought Shifting Consumption

Southeast Asia has experienced droughty conditions the past several months and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia/Pacific region says it is part of a longer-term meteorological trend. The change is most adversely impacting rice production and will likely benefit whea...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...

EU-U.S. Deal on Beef

This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...

Reading China; Bully Strategy

Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks.  Supplies are reduced as a smaller carry-in is not completely offset by higher production.  Forecast 2019/20 U.S. wheat production is raised 18 mil...

feed-grains wheat

Hazards of Forecasting

Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...

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