World Perspectives

Recent Australia Analysis

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.  Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.  Exports are unchanged.  Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...

Self-Punishment; Easy Solution; Back to the Flame

Self-Punishment China has made its punitive 200 percent tariff on Australian wines permanent for the next five years. The tariff is not import protection for nascent Chinese winemakers but political punishment imposed on Canberra. However, it is concurrently punishment imposed on Chinese consum...

Risk of Precaution; Challenging Poor Governance

Risk of Precaution Several European countries stopped vaccinations with AstraZeneca’s product out of an abundance of caution that it was causing blood clots in some recipients. The EU’s medicines regulator now says there is little risk (EMA data shows a 0.0006% rate of blood clots f...

More to Burn, Less Trade

As the border carbon tax idea picks up steam it leads to all kinds of possibilities for expanding use of border measures to extract policy changes. One target being discussed is the treatment of women, but they could be expanded to policy measures that distort trade, such as labor laws, tax pol...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  USDA’s outlook for U.S. supply and demand outlook is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate.  Au...

wheat

Wheat Volatility

ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commercial Buying Lifts CBOT; Corn, Soybeans Try to Forge Sideways Ranges

Friday’s selloff at the CBOT found aggressive end-user and commercial pricing activity on Monday. Markets traded lower overnight but triggered notable buying action as prices hit key support levels. The subsequent rally in the day session left the market with the feeling that near-term lo...

livestock

Beef with Beef Prices

The cost of beef around the world is highly variable. While the average for 97 countries is $11.40/pound for a kilo of top round or back leg equivalent, it will cost $55.58 in Switzerland and just $3.68 in Pakistan. That makes Switzerland 15 times more expensive to get a steak. Of course, it is...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stoc...

All/Any Trade Agreements; He’s Back!; Helping Hurts

All/Any Trade Agreements University of Sydney sociologist and foreign policy columnist Salvatore Babones calls the recently agreed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), “a China-style trade agreement: platitudinous and ineffective.” Aussies do not have a lot of warm fe...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks.  Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20.  This increase is based m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains

The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.  Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.  Exports are unchanged.  Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...

Self-Punishment; Easy Solution; Back to the Flame

Self-Punishment China has made its punitive 200 percent tariff on Australian wines permanent for the next five years. The tariff is not import protection for nascent Chinese winemakers but political punishment imposed on Canberra. However, it is concurrently punishment imposed on Chinese consum...

Risk of Precaution; Challenging Poor Governance

Risk of Precaution Several European countries stopped vaccinations with AstraZeneca’s product out of an abundance of caution that it was causing blood clots in some recipients. The EU’s medicines regulator now says there is little risk (EMA data shows a 0.0006% rate of blood clots f...

More to Burn, Less Trade

As the border carbon tax idea picks up steam it leads to all kinds of possibilities for expanding use of border measures to extract policy changes. One target being discussed is the treatment of women, but they could be expanded to policy measures that distort trade, such as labor laws, tax pol...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  USDA’s outlook for U.S. supply and demand outlook is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate.  Au...

wheat

Wheat Volatility

ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commercial Buying Lifts CBOT; Corn, Soybeans Try to Forge Sideways Ranges

Friday’s selloff at the CBOT found aggressive end-user and commercial pricing activity on Monday. Markets traded lower overnight but triggered notable buying action as prices hit key support levels. The subsequent rally in the day session left the market with the feeling that near-term lo...

livestock

Beef with Beef Prices

The cost of beef around the world is highly variable. While the average for 97 countries is $11.40/pound for a kilo of top round or back leg equivalent, it will cost $55.58 in Switzerland and just $3.68 in Pakistan. That makes Switzerland 15 times more expensive to get a steak. Of course, it is...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stoc...

All/Any Trade Agreements; He’s Back!; Helping Hurts

All/Any Trade Agreements University of Sydney sociologist and foreign policy columnist Salvatore Babones calls the recently agreed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), “a China-style trade agreement: platitudinous and ineffective.” Aussies do not have a lot of warm fe...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks.  Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20.  This increase is based m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains

The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...

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