World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...

Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate

Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...

soy-oilseeds

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Export Taxes; NOPA Crush Estimate; China’s U.S. Soybean Imports

Argentina Suspends Export Tax Reductions for Soyoil and Soymeal The government of Argentina today announced that reductions in the export tax rates for soymeal and soyoil will be suspended for the next six months. Since the beginning of this year, those rates along with that for soybeans have b...

Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession

Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...

Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag

Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans China’s soybean demand remains at a standstill for all positions. Last week’s market activity (or lack thereof) was the same as it has been for the past few months with Chinese soybean crushers having no margin to buy, sellers looking for demand, and basis slowly falling. E...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s August 2018/19 estimate is for larger U.S. corn supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, up 356 million from the July projection. Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, North Dakota, and S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Bear is Back

USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

At the end of the day, it was all about what USDA had to say. That turned out to be another bearish report on corn and, especially, soybeans. The wheat numbers were somewhat positive. Markets were hoping USDA would make just modest upward yield adjustments for corn and soybeans, but it didn&rsq...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...

Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate

Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...

soy-oilseeds

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Export Taxes; NOPA Crush Estimate; China’s U.S. Soybean Imports

Argentina Suspends Export Tax Reductions for Soyoil and Soymeal The government of Argentina today announced that reductions in the export tax rates for soymeal and soyoil will be suspended for the next six months. Since the beginning of this year, those rates along with that for soybeans have b...

Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession

Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...

Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag

Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans China’s soybean demand remains at a standstill for all positions. Last week’s market activity (or lack thereof) was the same as it has been for the past few months with Chinese soybean crushers having no margin to buy, sellers looking for demand, and basis slowly falling. E...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s August 2018/19 estimate is for larger U.S. corn supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, up 356 million from the July projection. Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, North Dakota, and S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Bear is Back

USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

At the end of the day, it was all about what USDA had to say. That turned out to be another bearish report on corn and, especially, soybeans. The wheat numbers were somewhat positive. Markets were hoping USDA would make just modest upward yield adjustments for corn and soybeans, but it didn&rsq...

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