Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commercials speculate with their money and analysts speculate about what such funds are thinking. Given the timing, there was guessing that it is...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16 percent; the only other cut with a bigger drop is the belly. Through last week, hog slaughter was up 1.6 percent over the same 10 wee...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Cash Price Falls Again, Shedding More Than 2 Percent The national average price dropped by RMB .34/kg ($.02/lb.) or nearly 2.2 percent from the previous week. That resulted in the average operating loss per live pig widening by RMB 41/head ($5.93/MT) or 25.6 percent. With the...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement put funds in a selling mood. Grain futures tried to rally in early trade but were quickly pushed back by strong managed money and even some...
Ag Trade Deficit Spurs Interest in Trade Promotion Authority
U.S. ag exports hit a record $196 billion in FY 2022. For FY 2023, however, the latest forecast from USDA in February puts exports at $184.5, down $5.5 billion from the November forecast. Moreover, ag trade is expected to be a deficit of $14.5 billion in FY 2023. Imports are forecast at $199 bi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is still super boring in Argentina as the market dynamics repeat themselves day after day. There is no farmer selling, millers are buying slowly to cover their spot needs, and only from time to time will exporters come out to sell part of their wheat. Consequently, prices in the loc...
Market Commentary: Dribs and Dabs
On low to average volume, the trading range has tightened. While corn and wheat have been ascendant, today it was corn and soybeans settling higher and wheat was down. Continuing to hang over the market, and especially animal proteins, has been bank failures and Fed tightening. Wall Stre...
Market Commentary: Livestock Markets Collapse on Economic Risks; Grains Grind Higher
Bank liquidity issues and collapses remain at the forefront of the market’s collective mind with investors increasingly looking for safe-haven assets and “risk off” trades. That has exerted some influence on the ag markets, with livestock futures being the primary recipient of...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices See Their Smallest Increase n Nine Months The Year of the Rabbit kicked off with a sharp reduction in food inflation, as the average cost was up just 2.6 percent in February from a year ago. The oversupply of live hogs has resulted in a sharp correction to pork prices...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commercials speculate with their money and analysts speculate about what such funds are thinking. Given the timing, there was guessing that it is...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16 percent; the only other cut with a bigger drop is the belly. Through last week, hog slaughter was up 1.6 percent over the same 10 wee...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Cash Price Falls Again, Shedding More Than 2 Percent The national average price dropped by RMB .34/kg ($.02/lb.) or nearly 2.2 percent from the previous week. That resulted in the average operating loss per live pig widening by RMB 41/head ($5.93/MT) or 25.6 percent. With the...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement put funds in a selling mood. Grain futures tried to rally in early trade but were quickly pushed back by strong managed money and even some...
Ag Trade Deficit Spurs Interest in Trade Promotion Authority
U.S. ag exports hit a record $196 billion in FY 2022. For FY 2023, however, the latest forecast from USDA in February puts exports at $184.5, down $5.5 billion from the November forecast. Moreover, ag trade is expected to be a deficit of $14.5 billion in FY 2023. Imports are forecast at $199 bi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is still super boring in Argentina as the market dynamics repeat themselves day after day. There is no farmer selling, millers are buying slowly to cover their spot needs, and only from time to time will exporters come out to sell part of their wheat. Consequently, prices in the loc...
Market Commentary: Dribs and Dabs
On low to average volume, the trading range has tightened. While corn and wheat have been ascendant, today it was corn and soybeans settling higher and wheat was down. Continuing to hang over the market, and especially animal proteins, has been bank failures and Fed tightening. Wall Stre...
Market Commentary: Livestock Markets Collapse on Economic Risks; Grains Grind Higher
Bank liquidity issues and collapses remain at the forefront of the market’s collective mind with investors increasingly looking for safe-haven assets and “risk off” trades. That has exerted some influence on the ag markets, with livestock futures being the primary recipient of...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices See Their Smallest Increase n Nine Months The Year of the Rabbit kicked off with a sharp reduction in food inflation, as the average cost was up just 2.6 percent in February from a year ago. The oversupply of live hogs has resulted in a sharp correction to pork prices...