Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Market Commentary: Bearishness Envelops CBOT Trade
The CBOT was sharply lower on Monday with markets seeing continued pressure from Friday’s generally bearish WASDE, favorable Midwest weather trends, and gains in the U.S. dollar following the weekend assassination attempt on former President Trump. The assassination attempt obviously does...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Geopolitical Trade Substitution
Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the green pea trade was 37.9 percent in 2022, while Russia supplied 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, China is both the largest producer and importer of...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support
Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia and China. The rally in soyoil – and the broader vegoil complex – helped push soybeans higher and at one point November soybeans...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...
Trade Spat Between China and EU
When President Biden announced higher Section 232 tariffs on a list of Chinese goods (see WPI 14 May) anxieties were raised over possible retaliation (see WPI 10 June). Right now, the EU is on the leading edge of the tariff tit-for-tat. Yesterday, China announced its Ministry of Commerce would...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Market Commentary: Bearishness Envelops CBOT Trade
The CBOT was sharply lower on Monday with markets seeing continued pressure from Friday’s generally bearish WASDE, favorable Midwest weather trends, and gains in the U.S. dollar following the weekend assassination attempt on former President Trump. The assassination attempt obviously does...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Geopolitical Trade Substitution
Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the green pea trade was 37.9 percent in 2022, while Russia supplied 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, China is both the largest producer and importer of...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support
Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia and China. The rally in soyoil – and the broader vegoil complex – helped push soybeans higher and at one point November soybeans...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...
Trade Spat Between China and EU
When President Biden announced higher Section 232 tariffs on a list of Chinese goods (see WPI 14 May) anxieties were raised over possible retaliation (see WPI 10 June). Right now, the EU is on the leading edge of the tariff tit-for-tat. Yesterday, China announced its Ministry of Commerce would...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...