World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...

USMCA Codification; Mitigating the Mitigation; Expanding the Conflict

USMCA Codification What seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago now looks like a growing possibility – U.S. congressional passage of the USMCA. USTR Robert Lighthizer told members of Congress that he will do whatever it takes to mollify their concerns. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce says it no...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...

livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Reaches Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years The effects of the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) have continued to reverberate across China’s economy in 2019. In the second quarter of this year, food inflation has hit levels not seen since 2...

Legs of War; No Cigar

Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...

equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

Is the Immigration-Tariff Deal with Mexico a Template for China Breakthrough?

There is a great deal of speculation on whether Presidents Trump and Xi will actually meetand/or come to a deal at the G20 Summit in Osaka on 28 and 29 June. Much of the rhetoric from the U.S. side has continued to take a tough stance in trade talks with China. However, it is now more than a ye...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for nearby positions, on slight Chinese demand. Despite the CBOT’s rally, Dalian soymeal and soyoil futures are steady/lower, reducing crus...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

Good/Bad Trade War; Government Procurement Challenge; POTUS Contender and Commodity Outlook

Good/Bad Trade War Political analysts correctly note how the Trump trade war has “scrambled” the politics in both major political parties. Politicians do not like to be wrong, and so the most common refrain is that Mr. Trump could have used a different course to address China’...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Beef

At the recent Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture (SASDA) meeting in Fort Worth, the counsel general of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Li Qiangmin, addressed the current state of U.S.-China trade relations. He said that if they normalize, China will be a strong customer...

Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models

Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield to U.S. demands even with maximum pressure from Washington. This is the strength of a Marxist economy, and it is perhaps helped by a fallin...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...

USMCA Codification; Mitigating the Mitigation; Expanding the Conflict

USMCA Codification What seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago now looks like a growing possibility – U.S. congressional passage of the USMCA. USTR Robert Lighthizer told members of Congress that he will do whatever it takes to mollify their concerns. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce says it no...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...

livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Reaches Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years The effects of the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) have continued to reverberate across China’s economy in 2019. In the second quarter of this year, food inflation has hit levels not seen since 2...

Legs of War; No Cigar

Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...

equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

Is the Immigration-Tariff Deal with Mexico a Template for China Breakthrough?

There is a great deal of speculation on whether Presidents Trump and Xi will actually meetand/or come to a deal at the G20 Summit in Osaka on 28 and 29 June. Much of the rhetoric from the U.S. side has continued to take a tough stance in trade talks with China. However, it is now more than a ye...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for nearby positions, on slight Chinese demand. Despite the CBOT’s rally, Dalian soymeal and soyoil futures are steady/lower, reducing crus...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

Good/Bad Trade War; Government Procurement Challenge; POTUS Contender and Commodity Outlook

Good/Bad Trade War Political analysts correctly note how the Trump trade war has “scrambled” the politics in both major political parties. Politicians do not like to be wrong, and so the most common refrain is that Mr. Trump could have used a different course to address China’...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Beef

At the recent Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture (SASDA) meeting in Fort Worth, the counsel general of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Li Qiangmin, addressed the current state of U.S.-China trade relations. He said that if they normalize, China will be a strong customer...

Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models

Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield to U.S. demands even with maximum pressure from Washington. This is the strength of a Marxist economy, and it is perhaps helped by a fallin...

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