World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities

The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives

China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales

Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from that country. As a result of the retaliation, U.S. soybean exports in 2018/19...

biofuel

War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver

War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 August 2019 Domestic prices moved in different directions: rising in regions where they had decreased too much the week before and dropping in those that started quoting for 2019 production. Meanwhile, there was little change in other regions. The fact that harvesting...

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends China Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in 7.5 Years While Beijing has been occupied with the events in Hong Kong, food prices soared an astounding 9.1 percent last month versus July 2018. Monthly food costs have not risen at this pace since January 2012, when China’s economy...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...

Latest on Tariffs for Chinese Imports

With China’s economic data scheduled to be released tomorrow, the U.S. has made yet another round of adjustments to the pending 10 percent tariffs on additional imports from that country. When the bilateral trade talks broke down in May, President Trump announced that he’d proceed w...

Trump Blinked, Farmers Lose; What Scares You?

Trump Blinked, Farmers Lose The White House announcement that tariffs on laptops, phones, clothing and other goods from China will be delayed until after the holiday shopping season is a win for consumers. However, there was no corresponding offer by China to resume purchasing U.S. products lik...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - More Post Report Adjustments

SPREADS  October crush trades to 1.09c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.33%.  Corn spreads were sharply lower; the Dec 19/Dec 20 inverse of 3c is now a 24 3/4c carry post report.  Dec/March corn trades from 12c to 12 1/2c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 89 1/2c to 94c.  &nbs...

Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities

The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives

China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales

Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from that country. As a result of the retaliation, U.S. soybean exports in 2018/19...

biofuel

War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver

War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 August 2019 Domestic prices moved in different directions: rising in regions where they had decreased too much the week before and dropping in those that started quoting for 2019 production. Meanwhile, there was little change in other regions. The fact that harvesting...

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends China Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in 7.5 Years While Beijing has been occupied with the events in Hong Kong, food prices soared an astounding 9.1 percent last month versus July 2018. Monthly food costs have not risen at this pace since January 2012, when China’s economy...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...

Latest on Tariffs for Chinese Imports

With China’s economic data scheduled to be released tomorrow, the U.S. has made yet another round of adjustments to the pending 10 percent tariffs on additional imports from that country. When the bilateral trade talks broke down in May, President Trump announced that he’d proceed w...

Trump Blinked, Farmers Lose; What Scares You?

Trump Blinked, Farmers Lose The White House announcement that tariffs on laptops, phones, clothing and other goods from China will be delayed until after the holiday shopping season is a win for consumers. However, there was no corresponding offer by China to resume purchasing U.S. products lik...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - More Post Report Adjustments

SPREADS  October crush trades to 1.09c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.33%.  Corn spreads were sharply lower; the Dec 19/Dec 20 inverse of 3c is now a 24 3/4c carry post report.  Dec/March corn trades from 12c to 12 1/2c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 89 1/2c to 94c.  &nbs...

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