World Perspectives

Recent World Analysis

Australia

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...

EU-U.S. Deal on Beef

This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...

Reading China; Bully Strategy

Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...

EU-U.S. Deal on Beef

This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...

Reading China; Bully Strategy

Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks.  Supplies are reduced as a smaller carry-in is not completely offset by higher production.  Forecast 2019/20 U.S. wheat production is raised 18 mil...

Asia

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Grain Markets Face Uncertainty

It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...

Black Sea

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Grain Markets Face Uncertainty

It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...

China

Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities

The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities

The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives

China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...

Europe

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...

India

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.07 billion bushels, up 20 million. China’s soybean imports are lowered 2 million tons to 85 million reflecti...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 165 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is forec...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.07 billion bushels, up 20 million. China’s soybean imports are lowered 2 million tons to 85 million reflecti...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 165 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is forec...

A New Normal for U.S.-China Trade?

The modern U.S.-China trade relationship has always been strained. President George W. Bush addressed this challenge by bringing China into the WTO to force its compliance with global trading rules. However, that didn’t work. While two-way trade did grow significantly, so did China&r...

Middle East & Africa

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

North America

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.4 from...

Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities

The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.4 from...

Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities

The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

South America

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)

Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing.    Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

Russia

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales

Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from that country. As a result of the retaliation, U.S. soybean exports in 2018/19...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales

Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from that country. As a result of the retaliation, U.S. soybean exports in 2018/19...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...

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