Australia
Market Commentary: Definitively Lower
The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...
Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE
USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...
Market Commentary: Omicron Correction
It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...
Market Commentary: Definitively Lower
The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...
Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE
USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...
Market Commentary: Omicron Correction
It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...
Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)
“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...
Asia
Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm
Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm
Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Workers of World United
The analytics company CultureX says that people are more likely to quit their jobs due to a toxic workplace culture than due to their salary. That may be true but a Bain & Company survey of 20,000 workers in ten countries found that compensation was the number one issue for employees. This...
Black Sea
Unnecessary Angst
The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologue but there was little discernable impact when Russia annexed Crimea in late winter of 2014. Wheat production and exports continued to expan...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...
Unnecessary Angst
The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologue but there was little discernable impact when Russia annexed Crimea in late winter of 2014. Wheat production and exports continued to expan...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
China
Market Commentary: Corn, Soyoil, Hogs Post Bullish Days; Soybeans, Wheat Fall on Profit Taking
The CBOT traded a mixed day to end a volatile and mostly bullish week. Corn and lean hog futures rallied with March corn posting a new seven-month high and hog futures posting fresh contract highs. Soybeans and wheat, however, could not match the bullishness of the corn market and ended lower i...
Dynamic Oilseed Developments
Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Squeeze of Low Prices and High Feed Costs Plagues Hog Sector The latest data release from China’s Feed Industry Association indicates that the average price for hog feed has risen for six months in a row through the end of December. Expectations are that with corn prices remaini...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soyoil, Hogs Post Bullish Days; Soybeans, Wheat Fall on Profit Taking
The CBOT traded a mixed day to end a volatile and mostly bullish week. Corn and lean hog futures rallied with March corn posting a new seven-month high and hog futures posting fresh contract highs. Soybeans and wheat, however, could not match the bullishness of the corn market and ended lower i...
Dynamic Oilseed Developments
Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Squeeze of Low Prices and High Feed Costs Plagues Hog Sector The latest data release from China’s Feed Industry Association indicates that the average price for hog feed has risen for six months in a row through the end of December. Expectations are that with corn prices remaini...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy, and Wheat Rally on Technical Buying and Russian Aggression
The CBOT traded sharply higher on Wednesday with Tuesday’s rallies in corn and wheat sparking follow-through fund and speculative buying. Moreover, the latest South American weather forecasts are turning drier for Paraguay and central Brazil, which will continue to disrupt crop potential...
Europe
Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm
Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...
WTF Trade Policy; Transatlanticism
WTF Trade Policy USTR Katherine Tai spoke to other leaders at the World Economic Forum this week and made the following comments: Rather than seeking a return to the pre-pandemic global trading system, the goal should be to create a better one that reflects President Biden’s “worke...
Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm
Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...
WTF Trade Policy; Transatlanticism
WTF Trade Policy USTR Katherine Tai spoke to other leaders at the World Economic Forum this week and made the following comments: Rather than seeking a return to the pre-pandemic global trading system, the goal should be to create a better one that reflects President Biden’s “worke...
Dynamic Oilseed Developments
Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...
India
Subsidizing Poor Governance; GMO Pork; Trees for Grass
Subsidizing Poor Governance Development assistance goes to some very needy nations, but it may also enable corrupt political regimes to persevere when they should collapse. Afghanistan receives aid despite control by the Taliban, which banned women from governing positions and abolished the Min...
Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup
Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
Subsidizing Poor Governance; GMO Pork; Trees for Grass
Subsidizing Poor Governance Development assistance goes to some very needy nations, but it may also enable corrupt political regimes to persevere when they should collapse. Afghanistan receives aid despite control by the Taliban, which banned women from governing positions and abolished the Min...
Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup
Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...
Middle East & Africa
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un Sanayi has received $25 million in six year debt facility from Hollands FMQ development bank. Ulusoy is one of Turkey’s largest flour millers with its business split 50/50 between local flour busi...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un Sanayi has received $25 million in six year debt facility from Hollands FMQ development bank. Ulusoy is one of Turkey’s largest flour millers with its business split 50/50 between local flour busi...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...
North America
Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs
The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...
SCOTUS Takes on WOTUS
One of the biggest issues in agriculture over the past half a dozen years has been the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule – and more generally, the definition of wetlands has been a top issue for decades. Yesterday the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) said they would hear...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.2/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.18/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Soybeans closed at $14.0725/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Soymeal closed at $392/short ton, down $1.9 from ye...
Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs
The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...
SCOTUS Takes on WOTUS
One of the biggest issues in agriculture over the past half a dozen years has been the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule – and more generally, the definition of wetlands has been a top issue for decades. Yesterday the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) said they would hear...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.2/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.18/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Soybeans closed at $14.0725/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Soymeal closed at $392/short ton, down $1.9 from ye...
Misleading Farm Statistics; Regulatory Loophole; Plurilateral Solution in Geneva
Misleading Farm Statistics Jonathan Kanter, the Biden Administration’s Assistant Attorney General overseeing the Antitrust Division, told the New York Bar Association that he intends to “reinvigorate” the Justice Department’s antitrust law enforcement. His “All-of-...
South America
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Last week’s heatwave in Argentina was as bad with temperatures above 40C (104F) and strong winds in many places. By the week’s end, however, the weather pattern changed, and rains fell over nearly all the agricultural area with total precipitation amounts varying grea...
Dynamic Oilseed Developments
Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Last week’s heatwave in Argentina was as bad with temperatures above 40C (104F) and strong winds in many places. By the week’s end, however, the weather pattern changed, and rains fell over nearly all the agricultural area with total precipitation amounts varying grea...
Dynamic Oilseed Developments
Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...
Russia
Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs
The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...
Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs
The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter
As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Replaces Weather
With little new in the fundamentals to move the market it is instead being pushed by inflation and geopolitics. Funds are buying on both measures going into an uncertain weekend and open interest is up. President Biden’s comments at yesterday’s press conference did not help matters...