Australia
Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Let Them Have Meat
Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...
Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Let Them Have Meat
Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...
Market Commentary
The day started and ended as called with Chicago wheat and the livestock complex in the green while corn and soybeans went under water. Wheat remains the play with substantial volume trying to get in even as there was substantial volume working against soybeans. With a three-day holiday weekend...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Rice as Laggard
It was noted yesterday that the growth in global production of wheat has tracked population growth whereas corn and soybeans have expanded exponentially more. Wheat is predominantly a food grain whereas corn and soybeans have fed the expanding animal protein sector. Rice is also predominantly a...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Rice as Laggard
It was noted yesterday that the growth in global production of wheat has tracked population growth whereas corn and soybeans have expanded exponentially more. Wheat is predominantly a food grain whereas corn and soybeans have fed the expanding animal protein sector. Rice is also predominantly a...
Parting Ways – The Strategy
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued its first regulatory guidance on genetically engineered crops in 1992 and by 1996 the first DNA modified seeds were going into the ground. European activists hated the idea. Called it Frankenfood and warned that the technology would lead to Armaged...
Black Sea
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
China
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Monthly Summary May Activity Down, Open Interest at End Of Month Points to Reset Collectively, the eight leading agricultural futures contracts on the Dalian Exchange saw their monthly trading and volume fall by just under 16 percent and 12 percent, respectively in May. Note, there is a contrac...
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Monthly Summary May Activity Down, Open Interest at End Of Month Points to Reset Collectively, the eight leading agricultural futures contracts on the Dalian Exchange saw their monthly trading and volume fall by just under 16 percent and 12 percent, respectively in May. Note, there is a contrac...
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India’s Vegoil Imports; Chinese Uncertainty
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights This week has been an active one for U.S. soybean export sales to China and unknown destination. USDA reported soybean export sales totaling 570,000 MT since 29 May. Of that amount 306,000 MT are reported as sold for unknown destinations and 264,000 MT haven bee...
Europe
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Trade Policy’s Pollution Bias; Election Weighs on Policy
Trade Policy’s Pollution Bias UC-Berkley economist Joseph Shapiro analyzed (see NBER Working Paper No. 26845) tariff and nontariff barriers on global imports based on the relative CO2 emissions involved with the products. He found that “dirtier” products face lower import barr...
India
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India’s Vegoil Imports; Chinese Uncertainty
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights This week has been an active one for U.S. soybean export sales to China and unknown destination. USDA reported soybean export sales totaling 570,000 MT since 29 May. Of that amount 306,000 MT are reported as sold for unknown destinations and 264,000 MT haven bee...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Rice as Laggard
It was noted yesterday that the growth in global production of wheat has tracked population growth whereas corn and soybeans have expanded exponentially more. Wheat is predominantly a food grain whereas corn and soybeans have fed the expanding animal protein sector. Rice is also predominantly a...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India’s Vegoil Imports; Chinese Uncertainty
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights This week has been an active one for U.S. soybean export sales to China and unknown destination. USDA reported soybean export sales totaling 570,000 MT since 29 May. Of that amount 306,000 MT are reported as sold for unknown destinations and 264,000 MT haven bee...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Rice as Laggard
It was noted yesterday that the growth in global production of wheat has tracked population growth whereas corn and soybeans have expanded exponentially more. Wheat is predominantly a food grain whereas corn and soybeans have fed the expanding animal protein sector. Rice is also predominantly a...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy; U.S.- China Friction; Indian Vegoil Tariffs; EU Rapeseed
Argentine Farmers Continue to Reduce Soybean Sales Argentina’s farmers continue to hold back on selling their new crop of soybeans and selling less of their old crop compared to a year ago. Instead of selling they are holding on to their crop in expectation of a devaluation of the Argenti...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Parting Ways – The Strategy
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued its first regulatory guidance on genetically engineered crops in 1992 and by 1996 the first DNA modified seeds were going into the ground. European activists hated the idea. Called it Frankenfood and warned that the technology would lead to Armaged...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Parting Ways – The Strategy
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued its first regulatory guidance on genetically engineered crops in 1992 and by 1996 the first DNA modified seeds were going into the ground. European activists hated the idea. Called it Frankenfood and warned that the technology would lead to Armaged...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, west of Karachi, has received its first vessel of wheat and fertilizer that is being transshipped by truck to Afghanistan. Gwadar is a deep draft port that can handle large vessels and offers a shorter r...
North America
Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Unemployment and Food Costs
Today’s report that the jobless rate fell in the U.S. was good news that the economy is reviving. Food demand is relatively inelastic, though there can be some changes in quality. If there are impacts, they should be inverse, meaning less money to pay for food should cause food prices to...
South America
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was mixed to end the week with wheat posting the largest moves. Wheat futures turned sharply lower as a mix of harvest pressure on cash prices and modest profit taking pressured the market. Soyoil rallied again, which helped support soybean prices while corn futures were slightly hig...
Market Commentary
Today was a breakout. The only market in the red at COB was soyoil. After wobbling narrowly up and down for days based on only minor news headlines, reports of weather troubles in wheat and demand for soy encouraged today’s more substantive market response. The viewpoint that China would...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 4 June)
Update for 4 June 2020: Prices updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 4 June 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 4 June)
Data Updated Through: 4 June 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 4 June 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Baltic Dry Bulk indices continue to move upward this week, albeit it at a slower pace. As usual, the Capesize sector lead the parade. Iron ore exports from West Aus...
Russia
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher overnight with strength from Tuesday’s reversals carrying through into trade early on Wednesday. The markets turned lower, however, as concerns about worsening relations between the U.S. and China weighed on futures. The soy complex took the brunt of that concern an...
Let Them Have Meat
Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with wheat leading the way higher, soybeans firming with support from soyoil and short covering in soymeal while corn established itself as the sell-side of spreads. Wheat futures rallied on concerns that Russian production may fall as well as short-covering and long hedges bein...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher overnight with strength from Tuesday’s reversals carrying through into trade early on Wednesday. The markets turned lower, however, as concerns about worsening relations between the U.S. and China weighed on futures. The soy complex took the brunt of that concern an...
Let Them Have Meat
Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with wheat leading the way higher, soybeans firming with support from soyoil and short covering in soymeal while corn established itself as the sell-side of spreads. Wheat futures rallied on concerns that Russian production may fall as well as short-covering and long hedges bein...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...