Australia
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium
Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained true on Wednesday. The CBOT was sharply lower as rains fell across the U.S. Plains and Eastern Corn Belt and offered broad coverage and meanin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium
Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained true on Wednesday. The CBOT was sharply lower as rains fell across the U.S. Plains and Eastern Corn Belt and offered broad coverage and meanin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production level that is similar to the prior 2022/23 season's production of 1,650 and similar to the 2021/22 level of 1,646 million bushels. U.S. ending...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
Rice Constrained
The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice after China, and this purchase will ensure it is a record year for Philippine imports. For most staple commodities, this is not a large volu...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
Rice Constrained
The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice after China, and this purchase will ensure it is a record year for Philippine imports. For most staple commodities, this is not a large volu...
Similarities of Farming and Manufacturing
Debate around the reauthorization of the U.S. farm bill is focused on the legislation’s two major functions, domestic food assistance and farm price supports. The former involves Republicans trying to reduce the most generous portions of what amounts to 81 percent of farm bill spending, a...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
China
Market Commentary: Reports Tank Soy Complex and Wheat; Corn Stocks Bullish but Market Falls Anyway
The much-anticipated Grain Stocks report failed to match expectations in terms of supply data, but more than exceeded hopes for an exciting day of trade. The USDA’s headline report – the Grain Stocks as of 1 September – and the Small Grains summary report sent wheat and the so...
Responding to China
EU Trade Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is headed to China, reportedly with the message to sign onto some form of trade agreement giving Europe assurances of a more balanced relationship, or risk things getting worse. It doesn’t help when Beijing’s rhetoric is over-wrought. The EU has...
Chinese Energy Imports: Crude Oil at Record Levels
There has been much attention to, and discussion of, China’s declining two-way trade volumes. China is a trade dependent economy, with imports of many commodities and goods fueling its manufacturing and processing sectors and exports bringing in hard currency. China’s trade flows, h...
Market Commentary: Reports Tank Soy Complex and Wheat; Corn Stocks Bullish but Market Falls Anyway
The much-anticipated Grain Stocks report failed to match expectations in terms of supply data, but more than exceeded hopes for an exciting day of trade. The USDA’s headline report – the Grain Stocks as of 1 September – and the Small Grains summary report sent wheat and the so...
Responding to China
EU Trade Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is headed to China, reportedly with the message to sign onto some form of trade agreement giving Europe assurances of a more balanced relationship, or risk things getting worse. It doesn’t help when Beijing’s rhetoric is over-wrought. The EU has...
Chinese Energy Imports: Crude Oil at Record Levels
There has been much attention to, and discussion of, China’s declining two-way trade volumes. China is a trade dependent economy, with imports of many commodities and goods fueling its manufacturing and processing sectors and exports bringing in hard currency. China’s trade flows, h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite recent rains and improvements in the wheat crop’s overall state, the Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its production estimate by 600,000 MT, which now stands at a total production of 15 MMT. This is because the area from the center of the Cordoba Province northward and wes...
Europe
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, which damaged several near-port granaries and the under-construction...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, which damaged several near-port granaries and the under-construction...
Africa Rising; Farm Bill Split; Bulgaria as Exporter
Africa Rising Notably, the Africa Group at the WTO has asked for policy space to develop its industrial sector. Historically, the focus has been on agriculture. This redirection conforms with the development that has occurred elsewhere, with the industrial sector rising and reducing the need to...
India
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
India’s Day in the Sun; Rapporteur Inflation
India’s Day in the Sun The G20 meeting occurs this coming weekend in the New Delhi convention center and India is making the most of its central role in the event. Although Russian President Vladmir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be skipping the event, they may not be missing...
Bent, Not Broken
The recent BRICS+ meeting in South Africa highlighted some of the animosity toward a world order long dominated by countries comprising just a minority of the world’s population. However, the Western model is difficult to undo for many reasons. From the standpoint of its architects, it pr...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
India’s Day in the Sun; Rapporteur Inflation
India’s Day in the Sun The G20 meeting occurs this coming weekend in the New Delhi convention center and India is making the most of its central role in the event. Although Russian President Vladmir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be skipping the event, they may not be missing...
Bent, Not Broken
The recent BRICS+ meeting in South Africa highlighted some of the animosity toward a world order long dominated by countries comprising just a minority of the world’s population. However, the Western model is difficult to undo for many reasons. From the standpoint of its architects, it pr...
BRICS Domination
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to global GDP than the G7 (30.7 percent). They also comprise 26.7 percent of the world's land surface and 41.5 percent of the global population...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt grain importers, according to the USDA, have booked 71,000 MT of U.S. corn. This will be the first sale of U.S. corn to Egypt in quite a few months. Egypt and Israel are the destinations for the first Ukrain...
North America
Market Commentary: Reports Tank Soy Complex and Wheat; Corn Stocks Bullish but Market Falls Anyway
The much-anticipated Grain Stocks report failed to match expectations in terms of supply data, but more than exceeded hopes for an exciting day of trade. The USDA’s headline report – the Grain Stocks as of 1 September – and the Small Grains summary report sent wheat and the so...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7675/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.3725 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.75/bushel, down $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $381.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Reports Tank Soy Complex and Wheat; Corn Stocks Bullish but Market Falls Anyway
The much-anticipated Grain Stocks report failed to match expectations in terms of supply data, but more than exceeded hopes for an exciting day of trade. The USDA’s headline report – the Grain Stocks as of 1 September – and the Small Grains summary report sent wheat and the so...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7675/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.3725 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.75/bushel, down $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $381.2/short ton, down $1...
Oilseed Highlights – Drift Lower Could End
The Market It was another week of falling oilseed prices. November soybeans dropped 1.6 percent, December soymeal lost 1.1 percent and December soyoil fell hardest, shaving off 6.3 percent. The market can be a paradox. Brazil is dominating the export market and yet the U.S. has tight supplies a...
South America
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either regular or poor condition according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Twenty-two percent of the area is in poor/very poor condition, 25 percent is...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either regular or poor condition according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Twenty-two percent of the area is in poor/very poor condition, 25 percent is...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite recent rains and improvements in the wheat crop’s overall state, the Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its production estimate by 600,000 MT, which now stands at a total production of 15 MMT. This is because the area from the center of the Cordoba Province northward and wes...
Russia
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Russia’s Wheat Situation
Egypt was reportedly negotiating with Russia on a purchase of 1 MMT of wheat but has now gone to an international tender. Meanwhile, Tunisia tendered for 100 KMT of there were no offers from Russian trading houses. The trade believes Moscow has put a brake on wheat exports through an unofficial...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Russia’s Wheat Situation
Egypt was reportedly negotiating with Russia on a purchase of 1 MMT of wheat but has now gone to an international tender. Meanwhile, Tunisia tendered for 100 KMT of there were no offers from Russian trading houses. The trade believes Moscow has put a brake on wheat exports through an unofficial...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023 Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not traditional for this time of the season. We are talking about 140 MMT of new crop plus around 27 MMT of old crop (carryover). Russia started th...