World Perspectives

Recent World Analysis

Australia

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened with a weaker tone and kept that mentality through the day. Soyoil firmed against soymeal and soybeans while corn and soybeans traded mostly lower in tandem. Wheat and livestock futures fell back as well amid uncertainty about China’s commodity “shopping list”...

livestock

Livestock Round-Up

Cattle Market to Tighten in 2020 Going into 2020, the beef cattle inventory is likely to be down. The cattle inventory data will be released by USDA on 31 January, but based on 2019 trends, it is likely to be down from the herd as of January 2019, which, at 94.8 million head was slightly larger...

Last Laugh; Mediation over Arbitration

Last Laugh The actual language of the announced phase one agreement between the U.S. and China remains unknown but a reported commitment to boosting imports of American farm products could (speculatively) have notable side effects on infrastructure. The first involves grain handling capacity, t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened with a weaker tone and kept that mentality through the day. Soyoil firmed against soymeal and soybeans while corn and soybeans traded mostly lower in tandem. Wheat and livestock futures fell back as well amid uncertainty about China’s commodity “shopping list”...

livestock

Livestock Round-Up

Cattle Market to Tighten in 2020 Going into 2020, the beef cattle inventory is likely to be down. The cattle inventory data will be released by USDA on 31 January, but based on 2019 trends, it is likely to be down from the herd as of January 2019, which, at 94.8 million head was slightly larger...

Last Laugh; Mediation over Arbitration

Last Laugh The actual language of the announced phase one agreement between the U.S. and China remains unknown but a reported commitment to boosting imports of American farm products could (speculatively) have notable side effects on infrastructure. The first involves grain handling capacity, t...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Wheat estimates: U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million.  Hard Red Winter and Durum exports are each raised 10 million bushels, and HRS is raised 5 million.  With reduced supplies and higher use, 2019/20 ending stocks are...

Asia

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)

Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020   Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush; Soy Export Sales; Uncertainty About Sales to China

Near Record NOPA Soybean Crush in December The National Oilseed Processors Association yesterday released its monthly soybean crush report for December. The report indicated NOPA’s members reported crushing 174.812 million bushels (4.758 MMT) of soybeans in December. That was up from the...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)

Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020   Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush; Soy Export Sales; Uncertainty About Sales to China

Near Record NOPA Soybean Crush in December The National Oilseed Processors Association yesterday released its monthly soybean crush report for December. The report indicated NOPA’s members reported crushing 174.812 million bushels (4.758 MMT) of soybeans in December. That was up from the...

Return to Managed Trade

Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...

Black Sea

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)

Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020   Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 January 2020 Milling and feed wheat prices on the domestic Russian market changed insignificantly. Meanwhile, milling rye prices skyrocketed and feed corn prices showed moderate growth. On the export market we witnessed an upward trend, mainly after the Egypt tender...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)

Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020   Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 January 2020 Milling and feed wheat prices on the domestic Russian market changed insignificantly. Meanwhile, milling rye prices skyrocketed and feed corn prices showed moderate growth. On the export market we witnessed an upward trend, mainly after the Egypt tender...

wheat soy-oilseeds feed-grains

PM Post - Export Chatter Leads CBOT Higher

THE OPEN March beans: 3 higher March meal: 2.90 higher March soyoil: 34 lower March corn: 1/2 higher March wheat: 7 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with wheat making new highs at the start of the day on news that the Russian Ag Ministry proposed a plan to implement a first half 2020...

China

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that the CBOT markets will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2020 for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.  The CBOT traded another volatile day with corn erasing yesterday’s steep losses and wheat, soybeans, and soyoil all finishing higher as well. Rumors of Chinese corn and sorgh...

livestock

Growing Chinese Dairy Market

Reflecting the rapid growth of China’s dairy import needs, albeit from a small base, the new economic agreement between Beijing and Washington includes market access requirements intended to grow the trade. As is common throughout the agreement, the U.S. commits to working on removing its...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

China Phase One Trade Deal and Proteins President Trump and Vice Premier He signed the Phase One China trade deal yesterday. As had been widely expected, China’s commitment is an aggregate marginal increase of $32 billion in total ag purchases over the next two years. This increase would...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that the CBOT markets will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2020 for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.  The CBOT traded another volatile day with corn erasing yesterday’s steep losses and wheat, soybeans, and soyoil all finishing higher as well. Rumors of Chinese corn and sorgh...

livestock

Growing Chinese Dairy Market

Reflecting the rapid growth of China’s dairy import needs, albeit from a small base, the new economic agreement between Beijing and Washington includes market access requirements intended to grow the trade. As is common throughout the agreement, the U.S. commits to working on removing its...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

China Phase One Trade Deal and Proteins President Trump and Vice Premier He signed the Phase One China trade deal yesterday. As had been widely expected, China’s commitment is an aggregate marginal increase of $32 billion in total ag purchases over the next two years. This increase would...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush; Soy Export Sales; Uncertainty About Sales to China

Near Record NOPA Soybean Crush in December The National Oilseed Processors Association yesterday released its monthly soybean crush report for December. The report indicated NOPA’s members reported crushing 174.812 million bushels (4.758 MMT) of soybeans in December. That was up from the...

Europe

Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?

New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade.  The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...

Transatlantic Miscalculations

Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?

New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade.  The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...

Transatlantic Miscalculations

Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, the markets are now priced for continued economic growth. This raises doubts that 2020 is the year when he presents a major trade challenge t...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)

Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020   Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...

India

India Needs Fruit and Vegetable Imports

Unfavorable weather this past summer caused a shortfall in food production that is now reverberating through the Indian economy. Food comprises half of India’s consumer price index and the cost of vegetables in this global number one vegetarian market has reportedly skyrocketed 61 percent...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean oil prices is raised 3 cents to 34.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soymeal price is reduced $5.00 to $305.00 per short ton.  ...

India Needs Fruit and Vegetable Imports

Unfavorable weather this past summer caused a shortfall in food production that is now reverberating through the Indian economy. Food comprises half of India’s consumer price index and the cost of vegetables in this global number one vegetarian market has reportedly skyrocketed 61 percent...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean oil prices is raised 3 cents to 34.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soymeal price is reduced $5.00 to $305.00 per short ton.  ...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Regional News Western Europe faced wet conditions for much of the fall/early winter, but that trend may be changing. The 15-day precipitation anomaly shows a drying trend for Spain, France, Italy, and the UK. Parts of eastern Europe received above-average precipitation during the past two weeks...

Middle East & Africa

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)

Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020   Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Egypt says that it will establish a commodities exchange for the trading of items that will include wheat, sugar, corn and rice – both locally produced and imported. They say that it will be in place in the next 36 to 48 weeks. Several q...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)

Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020   Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Egypt says that it will establish a commodities exchange for the trading of items that will include wheat, sugar, corn and rice – both locally produced and imported. They say that it will be in place in the next 36 to 48 weeks. Several q...

wheat

Evolving Persian Diet

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have a long history, being particularly intense since 1979. Although food has not been a formal part of the sanctions imposed by Washington, their adverse impact on Iran’s economy have nonetheless impacted dietary consumption.   Once a major wh...

North America

Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?

New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade.  The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...

Martin Luther King Day

Please note that Monday, 20 January is a U.S. federal holiday in honor of the remarkable achievements of Martin Luther King, Jr. As a result, both the markets and World Perspectives, Inc. are closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives report will be issued the following day, 21 January. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that the CBOT markets will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2020 for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.  The CBOT traded another volatile day with corn erasing yesterday’s steep losses and wheat, soybeans, and soyoil all finishing higher as well. Rumors of Chinese corn and sorgh...

Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?

New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security issues like NATO funding, there are economic issues like trade.  The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from the EU under the WTO Airbus...

Martin Luther King Day

Please note that Monday, 20 January is a U.S. federal holiday in honor of the remarkable achievements of Martin Luther King, Jr. As a result, both the markets and World Perspectives, Inc. are closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives report will be issued the following day, 21 January. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that the CBOT markets will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2020 for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.  The CBOT traded another volatile day with corn erasing yesterday’s steep losses and wheat, soybeans, and soyoil all finishing higher as well. Rumors of Chinese corn and sorgh...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

South America

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that the CBOT markets will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2020 for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.  The CBOT traded another volatile day with corn erasing yesterday’s steep losses and wheat, soybeans, and soyoil all finishing higher as well. Rumors of Chinese corn and sorgh...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)

Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020   Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that the CBOT markets will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2020 for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.  The CBOT traded another volatile day with corn erasing yesterday’s steep losses and wheat, soybeans, and soyoil all finishing higher as well. Rumors of Chinese corn and sorgh...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 17 January)

Update for 17 January 2020: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.    Freight Comments for 16 January 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportun...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 17 January)

Data Updated Through: 17 January 2020   Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 16 January 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Panamax Dry-Bulk markets got a little bonce this week as paper traders believe they saw a buying opportunity. Capesize markets, however, are still struggling,...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush; Soy Export Sales; Uncertainty About Sales to China

Near Record NOPA Soybean Crush in December The National Oilseed Processors Association yesterday released its monthly soybean crush report for December. The report indicated NOPA’s members reported crushing 174.812 million bushels (4.758 MMT) of soybeans in December. That was up from the...

Russia

Return to Managed Trade

Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Regional News Weather conditions in Bulgaria turned negative for winter crops last week. After a warmer-than-normal December and first week of January, last week saw significantly colder temperatures amid low soil moisture availability. The combination of dry and cold conditions has kept winter...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, increased feed and residual use, and lower stocks.  Ending stocks are now projected at 965 million bushels, down 9 million from the previous report.  The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.55 per bushel.&nbs...

Return to Managed Trade

Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Regional News Weather conditions in Bulgaria turned negative for winter crops last week. After a warmer-than-normal December and first week of January, last week saw significantly colder temperatures amid low soil moisture availability. The combination of dry and cold conditions has kept winter...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, increased feed and residual use, and lower stocks.  Ending stocks are now projected at 965 million bushels, down 9 million from the previous report.  The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.55 per bushel.&nbs...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

If one was looking for the January WASDE to spark a directional change in the commodity markets, the day was surely disappointing. The day started off as called with continued buying in wheat and light profit taking in soyoil. Funds were selling corn heading into the report and pushed the marke...

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