Australia
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
The Bear is Back
USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
The Bear is Back
USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected...
Asia
Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag
Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...
Make it Transparent; Planting in 2019; Scale of Safety
Make it Transparent There is no word at this hour as to the outcome of today’s bilateral trade talks between Japan and the U.S. The talks are proceeding according to tradition – negotiations are held in secret until completed in order to avoid special interest group politics from in...
Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag
Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...
Make it Transparent; Planting in 2019; Scale of Safety
Make it Transparent There is no word at this hour as to the outcome of today’s bilateral trade talks between Japan and the U.S. The talks are proceeding according to tradition – negotiations are held in secret until completed in order to avoid special interest group politics from in...
Trade War Spin; A New Trade Era Ahead; Mugabeism Lives On
Trade War Spin In addition to announcing that it will respond to U.S. tariffs with more duties on American goods, Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said: China can achieve “high-quality” economic growth despite the toll exacted by tariffs - “China always holds on to the be...
Black Sea
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 August 2018 Grain prices increased due to rising prices on international markets and weakening of the ruble. Milling wheat export prices rose $3/MT to $235/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew to $187-192/MT CPT-Black Sea port. While the average fee...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 August 2018 Grain prices increased due to rising prices on international markets and weakening of the ruble. Milling wheat export prices rose $3/MT to $235/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew to $187-192/MT CPT-Black Sea port. While the average fee...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
China
Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate
Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate
Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Europe
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession
Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession
Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag
Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...
India
Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts
Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...
Interstate Pig Rivalry; Not Sweet
Interstate Pig Rivalry Farmers receive some state-level protections from NIMBYism (not in my backyard) in that someone cannot generally move next to a farm and then complain about odors. However, what about a new pig farm opening next door to a pre-existing landowner? Federal courts have been r...
Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts
Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...
Interstate Pig Rivalry; Not Sweet
Interstate Pig Rivalry Farmers receive some state-level protections from NIMBYism (not in my backyard) in that someone cannot generally move next to a farm and then complain about odors. However, what about a new pig farm opening next door to a pre-existing landowner? Federal courts have been r...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...
Middle East & Africa
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...
Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts
Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...
Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts
Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight with little fresh direction, and prices were mostly a bit higher. Much of the selling seemed to be liquidation of presumably profitable long positions. New short positions just ahead of Friday’s WASDE would require that the sellers have stron...
North America
Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate
Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.76/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 18 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.69/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $331.3/short ton, down $6.5...
Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate
Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.76/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 18 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.69/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 18 Soymeal closed at $331.3/short ton, down $6.5...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Livestock futures were higher on modest support while grains futures gave back all of Turnaround Tuesday’s gains. Would that make today a Washout Wednesday? Regardless, falling crude oil, a higher dollar, and rising trade concerns left the CBOT trading in the red today. Wall s...
South America
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Export Taxes; NOPA Crush Estimate; China’s U.S. Soybean Imports
Argentina Suspends Export Tax Reductions for Soyoil and Soymeal The government of Argentina today announced that reductions in the export tax rates for soymeal and soyoil will be suspended for the next six months. Since the beginning of this year, those rates along with that for soybeans have b...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Export Taxes; NOPA Crush Estimate; China’s U.S. Soybean Imports
Argentina Suspends Export Tax Reductions for Soyoil and Soymeal The government of Argentina today announced that reductions in the export tax rates for soymeal and soyoil will be suspended for the next six months. Since the beginning of this year, those rates along with that for soybeans have b...
Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag
Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...
Russia
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected...
Tracking Exports
Commodity futures markets thrive on various forms of instant gratification that are capable of immediately moving market prices and providing trading opportunities. It may be important government reports such as Friday’s August WASDE, which has a history of provoking immediate, significan...
Oilseed Highlights: Russia’s Soybean Situation; German Rapeseed; U.S.-China Discussions
Russia’s Growing Soybean Demand, Production and Imports For the past several years, Russia has been working aggressively to expand its domestic production of animal protein to reduce its reliance on imports. That effort has been very successful as USDA estimates its pork and chicken meat...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected...
Tracking Exports
Commodity futures markets thrive on various forms of instant gratification that are capable of immediately moving market prices and providing trading opportunities. It may be important government reports such as Friday’s August WASDE, which has a history of provoking immediate, significan...
Oilseed Highlights: Russia’s Soybean Situation; German Rapeseed; U.S.-China Discussions
Russia’s Growing Soybean Demand, Production and Imports For the past several years, Russia has been working aggressively to expand its domestic production of animal protein to reduce its reliance on imports. That effort has been very successful as USDA estimates its pork and chicken meat...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight. They were led again by wheat, which then exploded to gains of 15-20 cents at this morning’s openings. Corn and soybeans were higher, but there was no real excitement in those markets. Trading volume was much better than last Friday. In a change from late las...