Australia
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
WASDE Wheat - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average wheat price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $5.00 per bushel. Global wheat stocks rose 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
WASDE Wheat - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average wheat price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $5.00 per bushel. Global wheat stocks rose 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Asia
Transportation and Export Report for 4 February 2025
U.S. grain transportation markets remain skewed by the impacts of cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System, which have pushed spot CIF and FOB values sharply higher. Internationally, the recovery in ocean freight rates continues, with strong demand in the Atlantic while...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report for 4 February 2025
U.S. grain transportation markets remain skewed by the impacts of cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System, which have pushed spot CIF and FOB values sharply higher. Internationally, the recovery in ocean freight rates continues, with strong demand in the Atlantic while...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Black Sea
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 January 2026 The Russian grains market remains volatile, with bearish sentiment prevailing on the RUB export trade platform despite higher U.S. dollar–denominated export prices and zero export duties currently in place. With a large crop available, marke...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 January 2026 The Russian grains market remains volatile, with bearish sentiment prevailing on the RUB export trade platform despite higher U.S. dollar–denominated export prices and zero export duties currently in place. With a large crop available, marke...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
China
Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing
Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...
China Market Analysis
No. 1 Central Document China has released its No. 1 document for 2026, which calls for strengthening the country’s agriculture sector and rural linkages, while enriching rural areas as top priorities. The plan envisions up to 500 special demonstration zones deploying technology and deep r...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing
Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...
China Market Analysis
No. 1 Central Document China has released its No. 1 document for 2026, which calls for strengthening the country’s agriculture sector and rural linkages, while enriching rural areas as top priorities. The plan envisions up to 500 special demonstration zones deploying technology and deep r...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Europe
Transportation and Export Report for 4 February 2025
U.S. grain transportation markets remain skewed by the impacts of cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System, which have pushed spot CIF and FOB values sharply higher. Internationally, the recovery in ocean freight rates continues, with strong demand in the Atlantic while...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Large supplies and strong exports of wheat from the Black Sea and Russia continue to cap upside potential for wheat. U.S. and EU markets rallied last week until late in the week, when they hit a combination of technical pressure and increased competition from the Black Sea.&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report for 4 February 2025
U.S. grain transportation markets remain skewed by the impacts of cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System, which have pushed spot CIF and FOB values sharply higher. Internationally, the recovery in ocean freight rates continues, with strong demand in the Atlantic while...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Large supplies and strong exports of wheat from the Black Sea and Russia continue to cap upside potential for wheat. U.S. and EU markets rallied last week until late in the week, when they hit a combination of technical pressure and increased competition from the Black Sea.&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
India
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Israel will raise import tariffs on wheat from Russia and Ukraine under a new tariff agreement with the United States, a move expected to increase U.S. wheat imports. According to reports, the Israeli government will subsidize U.S...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s barley imports in 2025/26 are forecasted to reach 1.7 MMT, up from only 150,000 MT in 2024/25. The increase is due to the expected 13 percent drought-related drop in barley production this year. Turkey’s impor...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Israel will raise import tariffs on wheat from Russia and Ukraine under a new tariff agreement with the United States, a move expected to increase U.S. wheat imports. According to reports, the Israeli government will subsidize U.S...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s barley imports in 2025/26 are forecasted to reach 1.7 MMT, up from only 150,000 MT in 2024/25. The increase is due to the expected 13 percent drought-related drop in barley production this year. Turkey’s impor...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
North America
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week
It was another day of big volume in the soy complex. While soybeans closed higher for a fourth session, corn and wheat failed to follow, or perhaps their drag pulled soybeans back to fundamental reality. There are still no new export sales. The Chinese are smart, and if they intend to buy...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1525/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.4...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week
It was another day of big volume in the soy complex. While soybeans closed higher for a fourth session, corn and wheat failed to follow, or perhaps their drag pulled soybeans back to fundamental reality. There are still no new export sales. The Chinese are smart, and if they intend to buy...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1525/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.4...
Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing
Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...
South America
Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing
Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...
Transportation and Export Report for 4 February 2025
U.S. grain transportation markets remain skewed by the impacts of cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System, which have pushed spot CIF and FOB values sharply higher. Internationally, the recovery in ocean freight rates continues, with strong demand in the Atlantic while...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing
Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...
Transportation and Export Report for 4 February 2025
U.S. grain transportation markets remain skewed by the impacts of cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System, which have pushed spot CIF and FOB values sharply higher. Internationally, the recovery in ocean freight rates continues, with strong demand in the Atlantic while...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 February)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South America Weather Overview Argentina received some rainfall this week, but precipitation was concentrated in the northeast and western regions, with accumulations well below crop requirements. Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to rise over the coming days, with highs between 36°C...
Russia
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 January 2026 The Russian grains market remains volatile, with bearish sentiment prevailing on the RUB export trade platform despite higher U.S. dollar–denominated export prices and zero export duties currently in place. With a large crop available, marke...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 January 2026 The Russian grains market remains volatile, with bearish sentiment prevailing on the RUB export trade platform despite higher U.S. dollar–denominated export prices and zero export duties currently in place. With a large crop available, marke...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...