Australia
Value versus Value-added in Grapes
The EU is the largest maker of wine, followed by the U.S., whereas China may be the largest producer of table grapes but its production of wine in any quantity is a relative recent phenomenon. Meanwhile, the EU’s wine production has been dropping. India is the second largest producer of g...
Consolidation’s Diminishing Returns
While countries like Brazil and Ukraine are trying to consolidate farmland in order to gain efficiencies, Australia has always had some of the largest farms in the world. However, consolidation reached a peak in 2010 and the consolidation curve has flattened or even slightly declined. Lik...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively w...
Value versus Value-added in Grapes
The EU is the largest maker of wine, followed by the U.S., whereas China may be the largest producer of table grapes but its production of wine in any quantity is a relative recent phenomenon. Meanwhile, the EU’s wine production has been dropping. India is the second largest producer of g...
Consolidation’s Diminishing Returns
While countries like Brazil and Ukraine are trying to consolidate farmland in order to gain efficiencies, Australia has always had some of the largest farms in the world. However, consolidation reached a peak in 2010 and the consolidation curve has flattened or even slightly declined. Lik...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively w...
Update on Cyber Attack on Meat
This morning we posted an alert on the cyber-attack on JBS IT infrastructure in North America and Australia. The attack happened over the weekend and the company reported the incident to the White House and USDA. The U.S. government is operating under the assumption that this was similar to the...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...
U.S. Red Meat Exports Winning the Long Game
The May export data is in. Pork export volume was the third highest on record behind March 2020 and March 2021. Beef export volume set a historic record (also beating the previous high mark of March 2021), and for the third consecutive month the beef export value set a record. To date, beef exp...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...
U.S. Red Meat Exports Winning the Long Game
The May export data is in. Pork export volume was the third highest on record behind March 2020 and March 2021. Beef export volume set a historic record (also beating the previous high mark of March 2021), and for the third consecutive month the beef export value set a record. To date, beef exp...
We Have The Meat
There are a lot of voices discouraging the consumption of meat but for much of the world, demand continues to grow. Most of that demand growth is in Asia and so it is little surprise that the trade in pork has been growing the fastest. Given its lower cost, it would be reasonable to assume that...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 July 2021 Prices continue to decrease in the domestic Russian grain market, but in some regions, they were slightly up. Average 3rd grade soft milling wheat and milling rye prices remained stable despite abundant new harvest. Meanwhile, the export milling wheat aver...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 July 2021 Prices continue to decrease in the domestic Russian grain market, but in some regions, they were slightly up. Average 3rd grade soft milling wheat and milling rye prices remained stable despite abundant new harvest. Meanwhile, the export milling wheat aver...
Reason to Produce
The countries producing the largest number of soybeans and corn are responding to current elevated prices. However, the response is uneven. China is switching producer incentives from planting soybeans to growing corn. The predicted increase in corn production in Brazil and Ukraine is outsized...
China
Tilting at Windmills; Floored Prices; Greenwashing Sustainability
Tilting at Windmills China is being chided in the financial press for trying to limit commodity prices. In addition to scrutinizing pricing platforms, Beijing is auctioning stockpiles and warning against speculation. This approach ignores the real impacts of underlying demand, which the governm...
Different Value-Added
USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...
Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash
While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the weather. It is the known unknown and there will not be any clarity for a while yet. In a brief reflection of diversity (different commoditie...
Tilting at Windmills; Floored Prices; Greenwashing Sustainability
Tilting at Windmills China is being chided in the financial press for trying to limit commodity prices. In addition to scrutinizing pricing platforms, Beijing is auctioning stockpiles and warning against speculation. This approach ignores the real impacts of underlying demand, which the governm...
Different Value-Added
USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...
Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash
While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the weather. It is the known unknown and there will not be any clarity for a while yet. In a brief reflection of diversity (different commoditie...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Buys Argentine Soy; EU Soy Imports; Brazil Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Down Last Week The week ending 15 July was not a good one for export sales of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil. Apparently, it will be quite a while before sales begin to substantially increase. Net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 62,000 MT for the c...
Europe
Different Value-Added
USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...
Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash
While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the weather. It is the known unknown and there will not be any clarity for a while yet. In a brief reflection of diversity (different commoditie...
Green Measures Have Consequences; Good Choice at FAS
Green Measures Have Consequences Under France’s new Climate and Resilience law, farmers must reduce their emissions from nitrogen fertilizer by 15 percent or eventually face a fine for not doing so. In addition, school and government cafeterias must offer a vegetarian option at least once...
Different Value-Added
USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...
Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash
While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the weather. It is the known unknown and there will not be any clarity for a while yet. In a brief reflection of diversity (different commoditie...
Green Measures Have Consequences; Good Choice at FAS
Green Measures Have Consequences Under France’s new Climate and Resilience law, farmers must reduce their emissions from nitrogen fertilizer by 15 percent or eventually face a fine for not doing so. In addition, school and government cafeterias must offer a vegetarian option at least once...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Buys Argentine Soy; EU Soy Imports; Brazil Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Down Last Week The week ending 15 July was not a good one for export sales of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil. Apparently, it will be quite a while before sales begin to substantially increase. Net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 62,000 MT for the c...
India
Hunger at Home, Food Abroad
Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India believes that 2021 will be worse because now savings have been depleted. Meanwhile, India’s agricultural exports have increased by over...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month. ...
Hunger at Home, Food Abroad
Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India believes that 2021 will be worse because now savings have been depleted. Meanwhile, India’s agricultural exports have increased by over...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month. ...
Meat and Health
Some health advocates are pushing the narrative that plant-based diets are not only better for the planet but also good for one’s health. If true, this should be evidenced statistically. India by far has the highest percentage of population on a vegetarian diet (38 – 45 percent) yet...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia flour mill sales for the Second and Fourth Milling Companies has reportedly been signed. The sale was announced in April 2021 but details that needed sorting out delayed the signing until last week. The total selli...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia flour mill sales for the Second and Fourth Milling Companies has reportedly been signed. The sale was announced in April 2021 but details that needed sorting out delayed the signing until last week. The total selli...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Eid Holidays Muslim countries in the region will be closed for the Eid Al Adha religious celebrations from 18-22 July in most countries. Egypt Project Funding Egypt has announced that it has received international financing in the am...
North America
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.84/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $13.5175/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $356.2/short ton, down $9...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Weak Technicals; Livestock Markets Digest New Data
The CBOT pulled back again on Friday with weak technical conditions in corn and soybeans contributing to early declines. U.S. weather forecasts are mostly hot and dry still, but recent European model runs show greater precipitation for the central U.S. That put a bearish bias in the CBOT today...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.84/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $13.5175/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $356.2/short ton, down $9...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Weak Technicals; Livestock Markets Digest New Data
The CBOT pulled back again on Friday with weak technical conditions in corn and soybeans contributing to early declines. U.S. weather forecasts are mostly hot and dry still, but recent European model runs show greater precipitation for the central U.S. That put a bearish bias in the CBOT today...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Cattle Supply Continuing to Contract in Line with Expectations
USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report was released this afternoon. All cattle and calves in the United States on 1 July totaled 101 million head, 99 percent of July 2020 – in line with pre-report expectations. Of that inventory, all cows and heifers that have calved totaled 40...
South America
Different Value-Added
USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Buys Argentine Soy; EU Soy Imports; Brazil Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Down Last Week The week ending 15 July was not a good one for export sales of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil. Apparently, it will be quite a while before sales begin to substantially increase. Net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 62,000 MT for the c...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Different Value-Added
USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Buys Argentine Soy; EU Soy Imports; Brazil Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Down Last Week The week ending 15 July was not a good one for export sales of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil. Apparently, it will be quite a while before sales begin to substantially increase. Net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 62,000 MT for the c...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...
Russia
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are lowered on reduced wheat production and beginning stocks. All wheat production is lowered 152 million bushels to 1,746 million. ...
Name Calling One; Name Calling Two; China’s Self-Limitations; Value of Imports; Traitor to the Cause
Name Calling One Slammed by the lower cost of related catfish subspecies imported from Vietnam and China, U.S. catfish farmers have tried various approaches to reduce the competition. They threw AD/CVD duties at the imported fish, they lobbied the government to prevent the imported fish from be...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 June 2021 Russian domestic grain markets have heard the first trumpets of the new crop approach. However, bearish sentiments are already here while harvest may be slightly delayed due to a late spring. The bear has been moving slowly but steadily north and now Black...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are lowered on reduced wheat production and beginning stocks. All wheat production is lowered 152 million bushels to 1,746 million. ...
Name Calling One; Name Calling Two; China’s Self-Limitations; Value of Imports; Traitor to the Cause
Name Calling One Slammed by the lower cost of related catfish subspecies imported from Vietnam and China, U.S. catfish farmers have tried various approaches to reduce the competition. They threw AD/CVD duties at the imported fish, they lobbied the government to prevent the imported fish from be...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 June 2021 Russian domestic grain markets have heard the first trumpets of the new crop approach. However, bearish sentiments are already here while harvest may be slightly delayed due to a late spring. The bear has been moving slowly but steadily north and now Black...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s weather is trending pleasantly warmer after a cool start to the growing season. Temperatures will be above normal for most of western and central Europe this week with rainfall limited to Spain, Italy, and parts of southeast Europe. The weather trend is a welc...