World Perspectives

Recent World Analysis

Australia

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks.  Supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21 on lower carry-in stocks offsetting higher production and imports.  All wheat production is proj...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook

It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.  Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.  Exports are unchanged.  Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks.  Supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21 on lower carry-in stocks offsetting higher production and imports.  All wheat production is proj...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook

It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.  Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.  Exports are unchanged.  Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...

Self-Punishment; Easy Solution; Back to the Flame

Self-Punishment China has made its punitive 200 percent tariff on Australian wines permanent for the next five years. The tariff is not import protection for nascent Chinese winemakers but political punishment imposed on Canberra. However, it is concurrently punishment imposed on Chinese consum...

Asia

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity price...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook

It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity price...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook

It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...

Black Sea

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

CORN: The corn crop is projected at 15.0 billion bushels, up from last year on higher area and a return to trend yield.  The yield projection of 179.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Total corn suppl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market grew following global trends. The export milling wheat average price grew to $276/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price grew to RUB 15,600/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price gre...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

CORN: The corn crop is projected at 15.0 billion bushels, up from last year on higher area and a return to trend yield.  The yield projection of 179.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Total corn suppl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market grew following global trends. The export milling wheat average price grew to $276/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price grew to RUB 15,600/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price gre...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity price...

China

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expanding renewable diesel industry. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

SOYMEAL: soybean crush for 2021/22 is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from the 2020/21 forecast, reflecting favorable crush margins. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS:  The 2021/22 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21.  The soybean crop is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 270 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expanding renewable diesel industry. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

SOYMEAL: soybean crush for 2021/22 is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from the 2020/21 forecast, reflecting favorable crush margins. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS:  The 2021/22 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21.  The soybean crop is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 270 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. ...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

CORN: The corn crop is projected at 15.0 billion bushels, up from last year on higher area and a return to trend yield.  The yield projection of 179.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Total corn suppl...

Europe

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks.  Supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21 on lower carry-in stocks offsetting higher production and imports.  All wheat production is proj...

Free with a Twist; Cleaner Economy

Free with a Twist A group of U.S. Congressional Democrats are proposing universal free meals to all school children. The massive expansion in federal food aid would make permanently free breakfast, lunch, dinner, and a snack to all pupils, regardless of family income. The merits of universal fr...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks.  Supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21 on lower carry-in stocks offsetting higher production and imports.  All wheat production is proj...

Free with a Twist; Cleaner Economy

Free with a Twist A group of U.S. Congressional Democrats are proposing universal free meals to all school children. The massive expansion in federal food aid would make permanently free breakfast, lunch, dinner, and a snack to all pupils, regardless of family income. The merits of universal fr...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity price...

India

Not Just Food

The tightening global stocks situation is not just impacting food crops but fiber as well. Global production of cotton is down 7.4 percent at the same time consumption has increased 14.6 percent. The result is that ending stocks have fallen 5 percent and the average price is 14 percent higher...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Renewable Diesel Deals; China Feed; India Meal

Soy Export Sales Highlights USDA's export sales report for the week ending 15 April indicated U.S. export sales of soybeans for export in 2020/21 continue to be slow, but sales were positive for 2021/22. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were almost totally limited to nearby markets.  Net soybea...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; WASDE Report Changes; India Complaint; India Vegoil Tariff Rates

U.S. Soybean Export Sales Shift to New Crop Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report further confirmed the ongoing shift in U.S. sales of soybeans from the 2020 crop to the 2021 crop. Tight U.S. soybean stocks and less expensive soybean exports from South America are combining to cause the de...

Not Just Food

The tightening global stocks situation is not just impacting food crops but fiber as well. Global production of cotton is down 7.4 percent at the same time consumption has increased 14.6 percent. The result is that ending stocks have fallen 5 percent and the average price is 14 percent higher...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Renewable Diesel Deals; China Feed; India Meal

Soy Export Sales Highlights USDA's export sales report for the week ending 15 April indicated U.S. export sales of soybeans for export in 2020/21 continue to be slow, but sales were positive for 2021/22. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were almost totally limited to nearby markets.  Net soybea...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; WASDE Report Changes; India Complaint; India Vegoil Tariff Rates

U.S. Soybean Export Sales Shift to New Crop Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report further confirmed the ongoing shift in U.S. sales of soybeans from the 2020 crop to the 2021 crop. Tight U.S. soybean stocks and less expensive soybean exports from South America are combining to cause the de...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS:  USDA outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use projections are mostly unchanged. Ending stocks remain at 120 million bushels, down 405 million from last year’s record.  The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.15 per bushel, unchanged from last month.&n...

Middle East & Africa

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity price...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The Muslin holy month of Ramadan ends this week and is followed by the Eid al Fitr celebrations (the celebration of breaking the fast) which will be for one to four days depending on the country. Very soon everyone will be back to no...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity prices a...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 6 May 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting If you read ocean freight news articles, they all believe that the stars are aligned for big economic growth, and the super-cycle in commodities and freight has arrived. After all, the stock market is up, commodity price...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The Muslin holy month of Ramadan ends this week and is followed by the Eid al Fitr celebrations (the celebration of breaking the fast) which will be for one to four days depending on the country. Very soon everyone will be back to no...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) said it will begin selling its grain silos during 2021. SAGO has 3.3 MMT of grain storage but there has been no confirmation on how much may be offered for sale. Aswan Shipping of Qatar found that one...

North America

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Washout

THE OPEN July beans:  20 lower July meal:  6.20 lower July soyoil:  64 lower July corn:  17 lower July wheat: 7 1/2 lower The markets opened in line with trade expectations, but poor export sales and a negative reaction to the report yesterday set a deeper sell-off in motion...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 30,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Corn:  Net sales reductions of 113,400 MT for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Weather, Stocks and Funds

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on profit-taking heading into the weekend.  The USDA report has come and gone, and we are left looking at weather, stocks, and funds. The gist of the report was that the USDA was conservative except for Safrinha corn.  End-users continue...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Washout

THE OPEN July beans:  20 lower July meal:  6.20 lower July soyoil:  64 lower July corn:  17 lower July wheat: 7 1/2 lower The markets opened in line with trade expectations, but poor export sales and a negative reaction to the report yesterday set a deeper sell-off in motion...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 30,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Corn:  Net sales reductions of 113,400 MT for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Weather, Stocks and Funds

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on profit-taking heading into the weekend.  The USDA report has come and gone, and we are left looking at weather, stocks, and funds. The gist of the report was that the USDA was conservative except for Safrinha corn.  End-users continue...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - All Going Down

SPREADS July crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 42.68%.  Inverses remain well supported with July/Nov beans trading to 1.95c to 2.08c.  July /Dec meal is weaker trading down to $24.50 from $28.50.  July/Dec corn trades from 1.23c down to 1.12 3/4c inverse.  July...

South America

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expanding renewable diesel industry. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

SOYMEAL: soybean crush for 2021/22 is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from the 2020/21 forecast, reflecting favorable crush margins. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS:  The 2021/22 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21.  The soybean crop is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 270 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expanding renewable diesel industry. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

SOYMEAL: soybean crush for 2021/22 is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from the 2020/21 forecast, reflecting favorable crush margins. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS:  The 2021/22 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21.  The soybean crop is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 270 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. ...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

CORN: The corn crop is projected at 15.0 billion bushels, up from last year on higher area and a return to trend yield.  The yield projection of 179.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Total corn suppl...

Russia

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: End-of-Month Buying Lifts CBOT; Hog Rally Continues Unfettered

The last trading day of April saw the CBOT open lower and it looked like it would continue the week’s apparent theme of lower trade. Bears’ hopes were quickly dashed, however, as the market rallied starting mid-day and ended sharply higher. July corn settled limit-up and soybeans po...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Uncertain CBOT Outlook Drives Volatility

CBOT markets pulled back hard overnight and followed through on yesterday’s hook reversals. Overnight trading volume was large, and more than 70,000 July corn contracts traded and 42,000 contracts of July soybeans. The heavy overnight trade came after the preliminary CBOT data showed open...

Right Sized; Russian Meltdown

Right Sized How large should farms be? That has become an issue in Europe, which like the U.S. started as a social issue but is now morphing in the EU into an ecological question. A USDA/ERS study on consolidation in U.S. farms found three factors driving the push to larger scaled operations. T...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: End-of-Month Buying Lifts CBOT; Hog Rally Continues Unfettered

The last trading day of April saw the CBOT open lower and it looked like it would continue the week’s apparent theme of lower trade. Bears’ hopes were quickly dashed, however, as the market rallied starting mid-day and ended sharply higher. July corn settled limit-up and soybeans po...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Uncertain CBOT Outlook Drives Volatility

CBOT markets pulled back hard overnight and followed through on yesterday’s hook reversals. Overnight trading volume was large, and more than 70,000 July corn contracts traded and 42,000 contracts of July soybeans. The heavy overnight trade came after the preliminary CBOT data showed open...

Right Sized; Russian Meltdown

Right Sized How large should farms be? That has become an issue in Europe, which like the U.S. started as a social issue but is now morphing in the EU into an ecological question. A USDA/ERS study on consolidation in U.S. farms found three factors driving the push to larger scaled operations. T...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe continues to struggle with drought with conditions especially concerning for the UK. Most of western and northern Europe has experienced below normal precipitation over the past month and the current two-week outlook favors rain for southern and southeast Europe only...

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