Australia
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA
Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreign policy. However, China has created a bit of an ANZ split. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited China on the 50th anniversary of...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic production, and a rebounding global economy that has elevated the value of rice. In truth, Thai rice exports are highly correlated to production, wh...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic production, and a rebounding global economy that has elevated the value of rice. In truth, Thai rice exports are highly correlated to production, wh...
Dreaming of Soybeans
Like many other countries that import soybeans, South Korea is hoping to become more self-sufficient in this oilseed. However, hope runs straight into the limits of geography. Right now the country produces about 9 percent of the 1.44 MMT of soybeans it consumes. Its agricultural area of 1.698...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory terms. Ukraine announced a 120-day extension while Russian officials claim the extension is only valid for another 60 days. The Russian sid...
China
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commercials speculate with their money and analysts speculate about what such funds are thinking. Given the timing, there was guessing that it is...
Europe
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Rice is Tight
EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of the EU’s rice output, and it has suffered from drought. As a water intensive crop, climate change will have an outside impact on this st...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Rice is Tight
EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of the EU’s rice output, and it has suffered from drought. As a water intensive crop, climate change will have an outside impact on this st...
Dutch Farmers’ Party Election
The success of a newly created farmer-based political party in the Netherlands in last week’s elections will establish the party as one of the largest in the Dutch Senate and could impact the government’s proposed nitrogen emissions reduction plans. Here’s a rough timeline of...
India
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, and the U.S. ending stocks are estimate is reduced 15 million bushels to 210 m...
India’s Rise; Critic versus Constructionist
India’s Rise The world’s largest democracy has refused to criticize or disengage from Russia’s autocratic regime. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is playing his country’s power card between Russia and the U.S. The Biden Administration will pour on a full-court press this ye...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, and the U.S. ending stocks are estimate is reduced 15 million bushels to 210 m...
India’s Rise; Critic versus Constructionist
India’s Rise The world’s largest democracy has refused to criticize or disengage from Russia’s autocratic regime. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is playing his country’s power card between Russia and the U.S. The Biden Administration will pour on a full-court press this ye...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
Spinning the WTO Wheels
India this week blocked a perfunctory motion at the WTO to move surplus WTO funds from 2021 into 2023. All other WTO members agreed that the funds could be used to cover the organization’s “mandatory and unavoidable expenses.” Reportedly, other WTO members characterized India&...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its export of wheat and sunflower seed on a temporary basis due to the recent drop in world prices. Discussions are expected in Russia this week bet...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its export of wheat and sunflower seed on a temporary basis due to the recent drop in world prices. Discussions are expected in Russia this week bet...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there seems to be no agreement on the time period – 60 or 120 days. Even the UN announcement of the extension did not mention the time period...
North America
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.745/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $459.9/short ton, up $1.7...
AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead
AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and smart phones. Those technologies have had their share of ethical concerns but the genie is now out of the bottle and short of government regu...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.745/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $459.9/short ton, up $1.7...
AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead
AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and smart phones. Those technologies have had their share of ethical concerns but the genie is now out of the bottle and short of government regu...
Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers
USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last year’s 72.69 million head. The report was generally in line with pre-report expectations, except there were a few more market...
South America
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
Russia
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Wheat Futures Up 30 Cents on Russia Export Ban Rumors
CBOT and KCBT wheat futures are sharply higher in early morning trade after news broke that Russia may seek to suspend wheat and sunflower oil exports amid low prices. The Russian government is reportedly considering a temporary halt to shipments in an effort to support local prices. The Russia...