Australia
Down Under Limits
Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Reprieve on Emissions Data; IPEF Launch; GMO Wheat
Reprieve on Emissions Data At the request of U.S. farm groups, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the deadline for public comments on its proposed rule, “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate Related Disclosures for Investors.” The Commission wants pu...
Down Under Limits
Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Reprieve on Emissions Data; IPEF Launch; GMO Wheat
Reprieve on Emissions Data At the request of U.S. farm groups, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the deadline for public comments on its proposed rule, “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate Related Disclosures for Investors.” The Commission wants pu...
China Tensions and Trade
Using trade as a bullying tool did not start and end with Donald Trump. Most recently, Russia’s Vladimir Putin limited food exports to so-called “friendly” countries. Starting in 2020 when Australia called for an investigation into COVID’s origin, Beijing began an effort...
Asia
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework: Trade Rules without Trade Access
On his trip to Asia, President Biden announced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) for Prosperity, along with 12 countries in the region. The plan is structured to 1) establish rules governing trade in digital goods and services, 2) create commitments regarding supply chain to eliminate...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier in the season the government was trying to stabilize prices for inputs and banne...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier in the season the government was trying to stabilize prices for inputs and banne...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
China
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Middle Kingdom Approach; Friday Snippets
Middle Kingdom Approach U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken articulated the Biden Administration’s policy toward China in a highly nuanced fashion. The key point is that the U.S. does not envision a new Cold War, but rather welcomes competition and wants to mold China into following th...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID Deaths Fall to One Per Week, Lockdown Damage Deepens Through yesterday, data from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Center indicate the trailing seven-day averages in China at 4,897 new COVID-19 cases and one related death. This marks the lowest rate for new cases since the end of t...
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Middle Kingdom Approach; Friday Snippets
Middle Kingdom Approach U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken articulated the Biden Administration’s policy toward China in a highly nuanced fashion. The key point is that the U.S. does not envision a new Cold War, but rather welcomes competition and wants to mold China into following th...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID Deaths Fall to One Per Week, Lockdown Damage Deepens Through yesterday, data from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Center indicate the trailing seven-day averages in China at 4,897 new COVID-19 cases and one related death. This marks the lowest rate for new cases since the end of t...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls as China Approves Brazilian Imports; Wheat Falls on Technical Selling, Acreage Switch Fears
The CBOT waivered again on Tuesday with corn and wheat posting losses for the day while soybeans firmed once again. News that China is likely to soon approve an agreement on phytosanitary conditions to import corn from Brazil put corn on the defensive for the day. Moreover, corn and wheat both...
Europe
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Fundamentals versus Exports
Shipping and refrigeration costs become larger factors in trade during periods of high energy prices such as the present. Suppliers with lower energy costs for food processing can arbitrage that advantage by shipping dehydrated product to countries with higher refrigeration costs. A good exampl...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Fundamentals versus Exports
Shipping and refrigeration costs become larger factors in trade during periods of high energy prices such as the present. Suppliers with lower energy costs for food processing can arbitrage that advantage by shipping dehydrated product to countries with higher refrigeration costs. A good exampl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Parliament approved duty-free imports of agricultural products from Ukraine for a one-year period. The U.S. is reportedly considering lifting a ban in potassium fertilizer from Belarus if the country will allow the export of Ukrainian ag products through to Lith...
India
Market Commentary: Wheat Scores New Highs; Soybeans Rally on China Buying Rumors; Cattle Fall on Weak Cash Trade
The CBOT traded a generally bullish day with wheat futures forging a classic bullish day on the charts. Wheat futures opened higher, traded sharply lower to test support in yesterday’s chart gap, then settled higher after forging new contract highs. World wheat risks abound, and the only...
Market Commentary: Wheat Limit-Up on India’s Export Ban; Corn Rallies on Brazilian Drought/Frost Risk
Over the weekend, India announced a ban on wheat exports following the massive heat waves that have severely hurt the country’s yields. Before the ban, India was expected to be a marginal but significant – especially this year – exporter of about 10 MMT. USDA’s May WASDE...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Pre-WASDE Trade; Wheat Rallies on Too Dry/Too Wet Forecast; Inflation Drives Fund Buying
The CBOT was higher the day before the May WASDE with traders turning more bullish amid persistently challenging weather forecasts for the world’s major crop producers. Moreover, U.S. economic data sent funds looking for assets in which to hedge inflation risks, which meant an inflow of s...
Market Commentary: Wheat Scores New Highs; Soybeans Rally on China Buying Rumors; Cattle Fall on Weak Cash Trade
The CBOT traded a generally bullish day with wheat futures forging a classic bullish day on the charts. Wheat futures opened higher, traded sharply lower to test support in yesterday’s chart gap, then settled higher after forging new contract highs. World wheat risks abound, and the only...
Market Commentary: Wheat Limit-Up on India’s Export Ban; Corn Rallies on Brazilian Drought/Frost Risk
Over the weekend, India announced a ban on wheat exports following the massive heat waves that have severely hurt the country’s yields. Before the ban, India was expected to be a marginal but significant – especially this year – exporter of about 10 MMT. USDA’s May WASDE...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Pre-WASDE Trade; Wheat Rallies on Too Dry/Too Wet Forecast; Inflation Drives Fund Buying
The CBOT was higher the day before the May WASDE with traders turning more bullish amid persistently challenging weather forecasts for the world’s major crop producers. Moreover, U.S. economic data sent funds looking for assets in which to hedge inflation risks, which meant an inflow of s...
Market Commentary: India Suggests, Then Denies, Wheat Export Limits; Exports Rally Soyoil; OK Wheat Yields Not OK
CBOT futures ended the day mostly higher with wheat leading the way amid rumors of an export ban from India and poor Oklahoma HRW yields. The wheat strength helped pull corn higher, along with rumors of Chinese buying interest this morning. The recent pullback in corn and soybean futures has, r...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egyptian officials have requested exemption from India’s recent export ban on wheat. Talks at the “highest level” are said to be taking place. For its part, India has said that only exports again...
North America
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
USDA Offers Early Termination of CRP Contracts
Yesterday, USDA announced that farmers in their last year of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contracts can opt out early this year. About 3.4 million acres expire this year, and a little more than half, call it 1.7 million, made bids to re-enroll. Overall continuous sign up for CRP has enrol...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.7725/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.575/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Soybeans closed at $17.3225/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Soymeal closed at $432.3/short ton, up $4.1 f...
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
USDA Offers Early Termination of CRP Contracts
Yesterday, USDA announced that farmers in their last year of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contracts can opt out early this year. About 3.4 million acres expire this year, and a little more than half, call it 1.7 million, made bids to re-enroll. Overall continuous sign up for CRP has enrol...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.7725/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.575/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Soybeans closed at $17.3225/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Soymeal closed at $432.3/short ton, up $4.1 f...
Middle Kingdom Approach; Friday Snippets
Middle Kingdom Approach U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken articulated the Biden Administration’s policy toward China in a highly nuanced fashion. The key point is that the U.S. does not envision a new Cold War, but rather welcomes competition and wants to mold China into following th...
South America
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Market Commentary: Truth Telling and Caution
An overly cautious market let go of the tease that Russia might negotiate the exit of Ukrainian grain. Vladimir Putin cannot abide the UN’s wishes because it would betray his contention that it is Western sanctions that are causing the food security problem. There was also some positionin...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Market Commentary: Truth Telling and Caution
An overly cautious market let go of the tease that Russia might negotiate the exit of Ukrainian grain. Vladimir Putin cannot abide the UN’s wishes because it would betray his contention that it is Western sanctions that are causing the food security problem. There was also some positionin...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 25 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 May 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting I have not seen a significant uptick in cargo demand this week, but dry-bulk paper traders in the FFA market tried to keep last week’s rally going and managed to close the week with small gains. Physical markets have...
Russia
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Market Commentary: Truth Telling and Caution
An overly cautious market let go of the tease that Russia might negotiate the exit of Ukrainian grain. Vladimir Putin cannot abide the UN’s wishes because it would betray his contention that it is Western sanctions that are causing the food security problem. There was also some positionin...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Market Commentary: Truth Telling and Caution
An overly cautious market let go of the tease that Russia might negotiate the exit of Ukrainian grain. Vladimir Putin cannot abide the UN’s wishes because it would betray his contention that it is Western sanctions that are causing the food security problem. There was also some positionin...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier in the season the government was trying to stabilize prices for inputs and banne...