World Perspectives

Recent World Analysis

Australia

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE

USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Omicron Correction

It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE

USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Omicron Correction

It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)

“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...

Asia

Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm

Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm

Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

Workers of World United

The analytics company CultureX says that people are more likely to quit their jobs due to a toxic workplace culture than due to their salary. That may be true but a Bain & Company survey of 20,000 workers in ten countries found that compensation was the number one issue for employees. This...

Black Sea

wheat

Unnecessary Angst

The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologue but there was little discernable impact when Russia annexed Crimea in late winter of 2014. Wheat production and exports continued to expan...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter

As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...

wheat

Unnecessary Angst

The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologue but there was little discernable impact when Russia annexed Crimea in late winter of 2014. Wheat production and exports continued to expan...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter

As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

China

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soyoil, Hogs Post Bullish Days; Soybeans, Wheat Fall on Profit Taking

The CBOT traded a mixed day to end a volatile and mostly bullish week. Corn and lean hog futures rallied with March corn posting a new seven-month high and hog futures posting fresh contract highs. Soybeans and wheat, however, could not match the bullishness of the corn market and ended lower i...

soy-oilseeds

Dynamic Oilseed Developments

Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Squeeze of Low Prices and High Feed Costs Plagues Hog Sector The latest data release from China’s Feed Industry Association indicates that the average price for hog feed has risen for six months in a row through the end of December. Expectations are that with corn prices remaini...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soyoil, Hogs Post Bullish Days; Soybeans, Wheat Fall on Profit Taking

The CBOT traded a mixed day to end a volatile and mostly bullish week. Corn and lean hog futures rallied with March corn posting a new seven-month high and hog futures posting fresh contract highs. Soybeans and wheat, however, could not match the bullishness of the corn market and ended lower i...

soy-oilseeds

Dynamic Oilseed Developments

Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Squeeze of Low Prices and High Feed Costs Plagues Hog Sector The latest data release from China’s Feed Industry Association indicates that the average price for hog feed has risen for six months in a row through the end of December. Expectations are that with corn prices remaini...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soy, and Wheat Rally on Technical Buying and Russian Aggression

The CBOT traded sharply higher on Wednesday with Tuesday’s rallies in corn and wheat sparking follow-through fund and speculative buying. Moreover, the latest South American weather forecasts are turning drier for Paraguay and central Brazil, which will continue to disrupt crop potential...

Europe

Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm

Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...

WTF Trade Policy; Transatlanticism

WTF Trade Policy USTR Katherine Tai spoke to other leaders at the World Economic Forum this week and made the following comments: Rather than seeking a return to the pre-pandemic global trading system, the goal should be to create a better one that reflects President Biden’s “worke...

Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm

Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...

WTF Trade Policy; Transatlanticism

WTF Trade Policy USTR Katherine Tai spoke to other leaders at the World Economic Forum this week and made the following comments: Rather than seeking a return to the pre-pandemic global trading system, the goal should be to create a better one that reflects President Biden’s “worke...

soy-oilseeds

Dynamic Oilseed Developments

Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...

India

livestock

Subsidizing Poor Governance; GMO Pork; Trees for Grass

Subsidizing Poor Governance Development assistance goes to some very needy nations, but it may also enable corrupt political regimes to persevere when they should collapse. Afghanistan receives aid despite control by the Taliban, which banned women from governing positions and abolished the Min...

Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup

Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

livestock

Subsidizing Poor Governance; GMO Pork; Trees for Grass

Subsidizing Poor Governance Development assistance goes to some very needy nations, but it may also enable corrupt political regimes to persevere when they should collapse. Afghanistan receives aid despite control by the Taliban, which banned women from governing positions and abolished the Min...

Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup

Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support

The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...

Middle East & Africa

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un Sanayi has received $25 million in six year debt facility from Hollands FMQ development bank. Ulusoy is one of Turkey’s largest flour millers with its business split 50/50 between local flour busi...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un Sanayi has received $25 million in six year debt facility from Hollands FMQ development bank. Ulusoy is one of Turkey’s largest flour millers with its business split 50/50 between local flour busi...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 20 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...

North America

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs

The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...

SCOTUS Takes on WOTUS

One of the biggest issues in agriculture over the past half a dozen years has been the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule – and more generally, the definition of wetlands has been a top issue for decades. Yesterday the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) said they would hear...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.2/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.18/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Soybeans closed at $14.0725/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Soymeal closed at $392/short ton, down $1.9 from ye...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs

The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...

SCOTUS Takes on WOTUS

One of the biggest issues in agriculture over the past half a dozen years has been the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule – and more generally, the definition of wetlands has been a top issue for decades. Yesterday the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) said they would hear...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.2/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.18/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Soybeans closed at $14.0725/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Soymeal closed at $392/short ton, down $1.9 from ye...

Misleading Farm Statistics; Regulatory Loophole; Plurilateral Solution in Geneva

Misleading Farm Statistics Jonathan Kanter, the Biden Administration’s Assistant Attorney General overseeing the Antitrust Division, told the New York Bar Association that he intends to “reinvigorate” the Justice Department’s antitrust law enforcement. His “All-of-...

South America

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter

As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina Last week’s heatwave in Argentina was as bad with temperatures above 40C (104F) and strong winds in many places. By the week’s end, however, the weather pattern changed, and rains fell over nearly all the agricultural area with total precipitation amounts varying grea...

soy-oilseeds

Dynamic Oilseed Developments

Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter

As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina Last week’s heatwave in Argentina was as bad with temperatures above 40C (104F) and strong winds in many places. By the week’s end, however, the weather pattern changed, and rains fell over nearly all the agricultural area with total precipitation amounts varying grea...

soy-oilseeds

Dynamic Oilseed Developments

Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net soybean sales were down 9 percent from last week but were up 12 percent from the four-week average. There were 797 KMT of soybeans purchased...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 21 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting This is certainly not the way vessel owners expected early 2022 markets to play out. The Capesize index has lost 90% of its value since last October as slack cargo demand and nervous FFA paper traders are not supporting...

Russia

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs

The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter

As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs

The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally After No Diplomatic Progress; Hogs Post New Highs While Cattle Falter

As expected, the weekend’s developments in the Black Sea drove market action to start the week. Over the weekend, U.S. and Russian diplomats ended discussions in a stalemate and the State Department urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Ukraine and Russia. Later, the U.S. ordered nonesse...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Diplomatic discussions have, so far, failed to prompt Russia to standdown its posture and further escalation of tensions is likely. Freight rate...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Geopolitics Replaces Weather

With little new in the fundamentals to move the market it is instead being pushed by inflation and geopolitics. Funds are buying on both measures going into an uncertain weekend and open interest is up. President Biden’s comments at yesterday’s press conference did not help matters...

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