Australia
WASDE Wheat
November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20. This increase is based m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains
The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields
Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election uncertainty and the movement of some cash parked internationally back to U.S. bank accounts. The weaker dollar helped support the CBOT and ot...
WASDE Wheat
November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20. This increase is based m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains
The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields
Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election uncertainty and the movement of some cash parked internationally back to U.S. bank accounts. The weaker dollar helped support the CBOT and ot...
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises; Big is Better; Eating American
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises If the polls are correct, Joe Biden is elected president tomorrow and the question is what changes besides civility? Looking at his campaign promises potentially impacting agriculture there is a lot of repetition from the past, a past that was mostly different...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 November 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s drop. De...
Biden Trade Policy
President-Elect Joe Biden has not yet named his nominee to become U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) but there are plenty of breadcrumbs that suggest the person will be: 1) conventional; and 2) likely a former Obama Administration official. That has been the pattern for his other economic policy...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 November 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s drop. De...
Biden Trade Policy
President-Elect Joe Biden has not yet named his nominee to become U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) but there are plenty of breadcrumbs that suggest the person will be: 1) conventional; and 2) likely a former Obama Administration official. That has been the pattern for his other economic policy...
Agriculture’s Gig Workers; Final Acts – Part 1; No New Hazards; Geneva Squeeze
Agriculture’s Gig Workers A consortium of leftist, environmental and anti-meat activists is suing U.S. meat companies for marketing their products as produced by independent family farmers. The groups argue that due to the contracting system utilized, the meat is instead the output of cor...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 November 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s drop. De...
Imperfect Fungibility
In the world of global grain trading, commodities are deemed fungible, or mutually interchangeable. However, fungibility is a relative term since grain prices can vary geographically for various reasons including transportation costs, local supply/demand differences, small qualitative differenc...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 November 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s drop. De...
Imperfect Fungibility
In the world of global grain trading, commodities are deemed fungible, or mutually interchangeable. However, fungibility is a relative term since grain prices can vary geographically for various reasons including transportation costs, local supply/demand differences, small qualitative differenc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 November 2020 The Russian domestic wheat prices decreased in some regions (mainly southern) due to a decrease in export prices and CPT-port prices and a stronger ruble. In other regions the price increases slowed down. Barley and corn prices kept growing as they did...
China
Market Commentary: South American Rains Douse CBOT Rallies
Heavy weekend rains for parts of South America took away a pillar of bullish support and sparked aggressive selling at the CBOT on Monday. March corn posted a new contract high overnight but could not hold gains and soybeans were once again stymied at the $12.00 level. The day session saw soybe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest is moving quickly and advanced 11 percent last week, reaching 31 percent total completion. The harvest is finished in the north with farmers posting the lowest yields in five years at 0.85 MT/ha. Further south, yields are still disappointing with the northe...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The current 7-day forecast for Europe favors widespread rainfall across the western and southeast regions, with heavy rain forecast for Italy and the Balkans. A high-pressure ridge exists over western and southern Russia that will prevent meaningful rainfall from developing...
Market Commentary: South American Rains Douse CBOT Rallies
Heavy weekend rains for parts of South America took away a pillar of bullish support and sparked aggressive selling at the CBOT on Monday. March corn posted a new contract high overnight but could not hold gains and soybeans were once again stymied at the $12.00 level. The day session saw soybe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest is moving quickly and advanced 11 percent last week, reaching 31 percent total completion. The harvest is finished in the north with farmers posting the lowest yields in five years at 0.85 MT/ha. Further south, yields are still disappointing with the northe...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The current 7-day forecast for Europe favors widespread rainfall across the western and southeast regions, with heavy rain forecast for Italy and the Balkans. A high-pressure ridge exists over western and southern Russia that will prevent meaningful rainfall from developing...
Ag Review - November 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at the global and local impacts of the recent U.S. election, President-Elect Biden’s trade agenda, fiscal policy and the U.S. federal budget, the challenges of long-term f...
Europe
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues; Corn Approaches Major Support
The CBOT attempted a dead-cat bounce overnight but turned lower during the day session. Wheat was the downside leader as weak technical conditions, and a large Australian crop are pressuring the price outlook. Wheat weakness pulled corn lower and the March futures contract slipped to major tren...
War on Agribusiness; Soy War II
War on Agribusiness President-Elect Joe Biden campaigned that he would help farmers “by strengthening enforcement of the Sherman and Clayton Antitrust Acts. Now he is hiring Neera Tandem to run the powerful Office of Management and Budget. Tandem has pursued a moratorium on mergers in the...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues; Corn Approaches Major Support
The CBOT attempted a dead-cat bounce overnight but turned lower during the day session. Wheat was the downside leader as weak technical conditions, and a large Australian crop are pressuring the price outlook. Wheat weakness pulled corn lower and the March futures contract slipped to major tren...
War on Agribusiness; Soy War II
War on Agribusiness President-Elect Joe Biden campaigned that he would help farmers “by strengthening enforcement of the Sherman and Clayton Antitrust Acts. Now he is hiring Neera Tandem to run the powerful Office of Management and Budget. Tandem has pursued a moratorium on mergers in the...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 November 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s drop. De...
India
India’s Vegoil Gap
India’s production of major oilseeds increased by around 6 percent over the past decade at the same time its population advanced by 9 percent. Although New Delhi restricts vegetable oil imports, particularly soyoil, to protect its domestic crushing industry, imports are significant and ha...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 34.5 cents per pound, up 2.0 cents from last month. ...
India’s Gain is Competitors’ Losses
India’s monsoon season has been abundant and has boosted hopes for bumper crops that will boost incomes and exports. This contrasts with urban areas that have been hit hard by COVID. There is also hope in New Delhi that the Biden Administration will be more generous than President Trump,...
India’s Vegoil Gap
India’s production of major oilseeds increased by around 6 percent over the past decade at the same time its population advanced by 9 percent. Although New Delhi restricts vegetable oil imports, particularly soyoil, to protect its domestic crushing industry, imports are significant and ha...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 34.5 cents per pound, up 2.0 cents from last month. ...
India’s Gain is Competitors’ Losses
India’s monsoon season has been abundant and has boosted hopes for bumper crops that will boost incomes and exports. This contrasts with urban areas that have been hit hard by COVID. There is also hope in New Delhi that the Biden Administration will be more generous than President Trump,...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Buys U.S. Soyoil; Shortage of Containers
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week was another good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and soybean products. If the pace of sales and exports continue it could be a record export year for the U.S. soybean sector. Net export sales of soybeans in the week ending 29 October totaled 1,530,5...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 November 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s drop. De...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA An electrical fire at the main grain silo in Tartous Syria has meant that 35,000 MT of wheat had to be moved to other storage. The wheat was not damaged by the fire but there was some damage to the silos – total damage to the s...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 November 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s drop. De...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA An electrical fire at the main grain silo in Tartous Syria has meant that 35,000 MT of wheat had to be moved to other storage. The wheat was not damaged by the fire but there was some damage to the silos – total damage to the s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA It is reported in Egypt that the government cabinet supports a plan to grant tariff exemption to grain importers for the 14 percent freight VAT charge. The freight VAT, based on estimated freight costs, has created serious cost premiums for export fr...
North America
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.62/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $390.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues; Corn Approaches Major Support
The CBOT attempted a dead-cat bounce overnight but turned lower during the day session. Wheat was the downside leader as weak technical conditions, and a large Australian crop are pressuring the price outlook. Wheat weakness pulled corn lower and the March futures contract slipped to major tren...
Approaching $6.94 Trillion in COVID Relief, With $26 Billion More For Ag?
The lame duck session of Congress continues to work on a funding bill to meet the 11 December deadline when the current continuing resolution expires. Moreover, it appears that a bipartisan effort at another round of COVID relief could also be a part of the deal. A group of lawmakers from both...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.62/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $390.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues; Corn Approaches Major Support
The CBOT attempted a dead-cat bounce overnight but turned lower during the day session. Wheat was the downside leader as weak technical conditions, and a large Australian crop are pressuring the price outlook. Wheat weakness pulled corn lower and the March futures contract slipped to major tren...
Approaching $6.94 Trillion in COVID Relief, With $26 Billion More For Ag?
The lame duck session of Congress continues to work on a funding bill to meet the 11 December deadline when the current continuing resolution expires. Moreover, it appears that a bipartisan effort at another round of COVID relief could also be a part of the deal. A group of lawmakers from both...
Empowering the Political Class
Ronald Reagan famously said, “If you want more of something, subsidize it; if you want less of something tax it.” Some countries are moving forward with taxes on technology companies. After all, they are big, rich and offer up an easy fillip on government revenues. However, it can a...
South America
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues; Corn Approaches Major Support
The CBOT attempted a dead-cat bounce overnight but turned lower during the day session. Wheat was the downside leader as weak technical conditions, and a large Australian crop are pressuring the price outlook. Wheat weakness pulled corn lower and the March futures contract slipped to major tren...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 November 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s drop. De...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues; Corn Approaches Major Support
The CBOT attempted a dead-cat bounce overnight but turned lower during the day session. Wheat was the downside leader as weak technical conditions, and a large Australian crop are pressuring the price outlook. Wheat weakness pulled corn lower and the March futures contract slipped to major tren...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments for 19 November 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s dro...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 November 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-Bulk freight markets stabilized this week and even ticked higher by week’s end. Physical markets, however, remained mostly unchanged as late-week rallies were not enough to surpass last week’s drop. De...
Market Commentary: South American Rains Douse CBOT Rallies
Heavy weekend rains for parts of South America took away a pillar of bullish support and sparked aggressive selling at the CBOT on Monday. March corn posted a new contract high overnight but could not hold gains and soybeans were once again stymied at the $12.00 level. The day session saw soybe...
Russia
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe remains lodged in a warmer/drier-than-average weather trend for the next two weeks. Except for the UK and parts of southeast Europe, rainfall will be scant this week and next. Eastern Europe is slated for light showers for the last half of November, but France and nor...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia plans to bring an additional 6 million hectares (Mha) of land into agricultural production by 2024, per the country’s ag ministry. The country noted that an estimated 9.6 Mha of arable land is still undeveloped, and two-thirds of that will likely enter productio...
Toward Virtuous Agriculture
Agriculture is being singled out for its deleterious impacts on the environment. The current popular target is deforestation, largely for its adverse impact on carbon sinking. Coincidentally, the problem threatens expanded agricultural production in countries like Malaysia and Brazil. Malaysia&...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe remains lodged in a warmer/drier-than-average weather trend for the next two weeks. Except for the UK and parts of southeast Europe, rainfall will be scant this week and next. Eastern Europe is slated for light showers for the last half of November, but France and nor...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia plans to bring an additional 6 million hectares (Mha) of land into agricultural production by 2024, per the country’s ag ministry. The country noted that an estimated 9.6 Mha of arable land is still undeveloped, and two-thirds of that will likely enter productio...
Toward Virtuous Agriculture
Agriculture is being singled out for its deleterious impacts on the environment. The current popular target is deforestation, largely for its adverse impact on carbon sinking. Coincidentally, the problem threatens expanded agricultural production in countries like Malaysia and Brazil. Malaysia&...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks: U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and reduced production - as indicated in the Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports. (The G...