Australia
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China; U.S. Meat Exports to Japan; Data Catch-Up; Farm Income and Expenses
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China Cases of classical swine fever (CSF), also known as hog cholrea, have been detected in five prefectures in Japan, most recently in the centrally-located Aichi Prefecture. So far, about 15,000 pigs are in the process of being culled. (Correction: It wa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Last Thursday Egypt reopened the five ports that had been closed the previous Sunday because of weather conditions. Meanwhile, Egypt has closed several poultry farms due to their failure to provide samples for analysis in the effort to control...
Plurilaterals for NTBs; Leaky Law; Big State Power
Plurilateral for NTBs Australia has launched an effort to address the nontariff trade barriers (NTBs) its exporters face. The Aussie beef industry says NTBs cost it A$3.4 billion per year and the nation’s grain growers curated a list of 54 such barriers across 15 markets. But there is no...
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China; U.S. Meat Exports to Japan; Data Catch-Up; Farm Income and Expenses
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China Cases of classical swine fever (CSF), also known as hog cholrea, have been detected in five prefectures in Japan, most recently in the centrally-located Aichi Prefecture. So far, about 15,000 pigs are in the process of being culled. (Correction: It wa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Last Thursday Egypt reopened the five ports that had been closed the previous Sunday because of weather conditions. Meanwhile, Egypt has closed several poultry farms due to their failure to provide samples for analysis in the effort to control...
Plurilaterals for NTBs; Leaky Law; Big State Power
Plurilateral for NTBs Australia has launched an effort to address the nontariff trade barriers (NTBs) its exporters face. The Aussie beef industry says NTBs cost it A$3.4 billion per year and the nation’s grain growers curated a list of 54 such barriers across 15 markets. But there is no...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Growth in Soymeal Demand
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated a total 1,561,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China last week. USDA also reported additional sales yesterday and today of 1,403,000 MT to that country, bringing the two-week total to 2.964 MMT. Trade sources sug...
Asia
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat export price fell $1/MT to $246/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices were unchanged in RUB expression while decreasing in USD expression to $22...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Update The market was very quiet last week in Brazil, and movement was focused in the U.S. with the Chinese government purchasing another 5 MMT of soybeans there. China continues to show signals to the U.S. that it wants to resolve the trade conflict and stop the possible increa...
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China; U.S. Meat Exports to Japan; Data Catch-Up; Farm Income and Expenses
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China Cases of classical swine fever (CSF), also known as hog cholrea, have been detected in five prefectures in Japan, most recently in the centrally-located Aichi Prefecture. So far, about 15,000 pigs are in the process of being culled. (Correction: It wa...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat export price fell $1/MT to $246/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices were unchanged in RUB expression while decreasing in USD expression to $22...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Update The market was very quiet last week in Brazil, and movement was focused in the U.S. with the Chinese government purchasing another 5 MMT of soybeans there. China continues to show signals to the U.S. that it wants to resolve the trade conflict and stop the possible increa...
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China; U.S. Meat Exports to Japan; Data Catch-Up; Farm Income and Expenses
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China Cases of classical swine fever (CSF), also known as hog cholrea, have been detected in five prefectures in Japan, most recently in the centrally-located Aichi Prefecture. So far, about 15,000 pigs are in the process of being culled. (Correction: It wa...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn market calmed down last week after seeing big movement the previous week. The main reason that only March shipments are moving is the lack of rain and growing risk of a harvest delay. The market is heating up because of short traders exiting their position and end co...
Black Sea
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat export price fell $1/MT to $246/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices were unchanged in RUB expression while decreasing in USD expression to $22...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAS/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo3a Poultry, a major company in grain trading and poultry production with other interests in agriculture and transportation, has signed a $90 million contract with KarmSolar for a solar project that will supply 100 percent of...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector
Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private analysts are now at least 12 MMT below earlier forecasts of around 125 MMT, and some have it much smaller than that. USDA’s estimate of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat export price fell $1/MT to $246/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices were unchanged in RUB expression while decreasing in USD expression to $22...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAS/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo3a Poultry, a major company in grain trading and poultry production with other interests in agriculture and transportation, has signed a $90 million contract with KarmSolar for a solar project that will supply 100 percent of...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector
Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private analysts are now at least 12 MMT below earlier forecasts of around 125 MMT, and some have it much smaller than that. USDA’s estimate of...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic market was about 200 rubles ($3)/MT higher. Its exports are slowing significantly as the higher prices and unofficial export barriers are doing their job. The Egyptian GASC purchased 300 KMT last week...
China
China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke
China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the satisfaction of critics. However, indications are that it will involve more than just the eye candy of some guaranteed product sales. Given Pre...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw corn and soybeans trading slightly lower with wheat getting hit fairly hard most of the morning. Wheat is again in a very weak technical posit...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
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Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report, which contained small totals for corn, wheat and soybeans along with sales cancellations of the latter to China, sent the markets reeling lower after its release. The initial weakness then triggered some significant technical selling, and the ma...
China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke
China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the satisfaction of critics. However, indications are that it will involve more than just the eye candy of some guaranteed product sales. Given Pre...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw corn and soybeans trading slightly lower with wheat getting hit fairly hard most of the morning. Wheat is again in a very weak technical posit...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report, which contained small totals for corn, wheat and soybeans along with sales cancellations of the latter to China, sent the markets reeling lower after its release. The initial weakness then triggered some significant technical selling, and the ma...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade was limited in volume and price movement. Wheat was slightly weaker, while corn and soybeans hung around Wednesday’s closes. News from talks in Beijing was sparse. President Trump apparently indicated he would agree to extend the negotiations for 60 days as long as...
Europe
China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke
China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the satisfaction of critics. However, indications are that it will involve more than just the eye candy of some guaranteed product sales. Given Pre...
Summer Supply Destruction; Bilking Consumers; Chinese Gambling; Beef with Beef
Summer Supply Destruction The nomination of Andrew Wheeler to become the EPA administrator is being held hostage by a bipartisan and powerful group of senators unless the agency quickly approves summertime use of E15 ethanol blended fuel. The EPA initially blamed the government shutdown for slo...
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not; Politicizing EFSA
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not Newly-elected Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is a lean-right populist in the Donald Trump vein. This gives the two leaders a sense of camaraderie that may be reinforced if Bolsonaro visits Washington in the next few weeks. This has prompted speculation that the two gove...
China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke
China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the satisfaction of critics. However, indications are that it will involve more than just the eye candy of some guaranteed product sales. Given Pre...
Summer Supply Destruction; Bilking Consumers; Chinese Gambling; Beef with Beef
Summer Supply Destruction The nomination of Andrew Wheeler to become the EPA administrator is being held hostage by a bipartisan and powerful group of senators unless the agency quickly approves summertime use of E15 ethanol blended fuel. The EPA initially blamed the government shutdown for slo...
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not; Politicizing EFSA
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not Newly-elected Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is a lean-right populist in the Donald Trump vein. This gives the two leaders a sense of camaraderie that may be reinforced if Bolsonaro visits Washington in the next few weeks. This has prompted speculation that the two gove...
Finnish Supply Destruction; Slaying the Nonsense; “Other” Wins/Worst Idea
Finnish Supply Destruction Commodity supply and demand forecasts almost uniformly forecast too much of the former and not enough of the latter. A similar situation in the past gave birth to the biofuels policy that turns agricultural commodities into transportation fuel. Unfortunately, USDA als...
India
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector
Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private analysts are now at least 12 MMT below earlier forecasts of around 125 MMT, and some have it much smaller than that. USDA’s estimate of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector
Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private analysts are now at least 12 MMT below earlier forecasts of around 125 MMT, and some have it much smaller than that. USDA’s estimate of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein
U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be shipped in the current marketing year. This brought total reported soybean sales to China since its delegation last visited Washington to 3.80...
Middle East & Africa
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat export price fell $1/MT to $246/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices were unchanged in RUB expression while decreasing in USD expression to $22...
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look
If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat export price fell $1/MT to $246/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices were unchanged in RUB expression while decreasing in USD expression to $22...
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look
If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAS/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo3a Poultry, a major company in grain trading and poultry production with other interests in agriculture and transportation, has signed a $90 million contract with KarmSolar for a solar project that will supply 100 percent of...
North America
China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke
China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the satisfaction of critics. However, indications are that it will involve more than just the eye candy of some guaranteed product sales. Given Pre...
USDA Receives Funding and Congressional Directives
Today the president signed the appropriations bill that will cover the remainder of FY 2019 (through 30 September). The package was passed yesterday in the House and Senate by a vote of 300-128 and 86-13, respectively. It provides a compromise agreement on border security measures, but the pres...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw corn and soybeans trading slightly lower with wheat getting hit fairly hard most of the morning. Wheat is again in a very weak technical posit...
China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke
China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the satisfaction of critics. However, indications are that it will involve more than just the eye candy of some guaranteed product sales. Given Pre...
USDA Receives Funding and Congressional Directives
Today the president signed the appropriations bill that will cover the remainder of FY 2019 (through 30 September). The package was passed yesterday in the House and Senate by a vote of 300-128 and 86-13, respectively. It provides a compromise agreement on border security measures, but the pres...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw corn and soybeans trading slightly lower with wheat getting hit fairly hard most of the morning. Wheat is again in a very weak technical posit...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.0425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $306.5/short ton, up $1 from yeste...
South America
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade was limited in volume and price movement. Wheat was slightly weaker, while corn and soybeans hung around Wednesday’s closes. News from talks in Beijing was sparse. President Trump apparently indicated he would agree to extend the negotiations for 60 days as long as...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Soy Crop; U.S. Soy Plantings; Brazil and Crop Insurance; China’s Ag Focus
U.S. Soy Export Sales Anyone who expected today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 3 January to be positive for the soybean sector had to be disappointed. Considering it included much of the period between Christmas and the New Year, it is not surprising the data was lower tha...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade was limited in volume and price movement. Wheat was slightly weaker, while corn and soybeans hung around Wednesday’s closes. News from talks in Beijing was sparse. President Trump apparently indicated he would agree to extend the negotiations for 60 days as long as...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Soy Crop; U.S. Soy Plantings; Brazil and Crop Insurance; China’s Ag Focus
U.S. Soy Export Sales Anyone who expected today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 3 January to be positive for the soybean sector had to be disappointed. Considering it included much of the period between Christmas and the New Year, it is not surprising the data was lower tha...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not; Politicizing EFSA
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not Newly-elected Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is a lean-right populist in the Donald Trump vein. This gives the two leaders a sense of camaraderie that may be reinforced if Bolsonaro visits Washington in the next few weeks. This has prompted speculation that the two gove...
Russia
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look
If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...
USDA Reports Simply More of the Same
All had been hoping that the long-awaited USDA reports released today (originally scheduled for publication on 11 January) would reveal new insight, create some new market expectations or inspire the markets. Unfortunately, none of this was realized. Instead, they provided much of what had been...
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look
If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...
USDA Reports Simply More of the Same
All had been hoping that the long-awaited USDA reports released today (originally scheduled for publication on 11 January) would reveal new insight, create some new market expectations or inspire the markets. Unfortunately, none of this was realized. Instead, they provided much of what had been...
WASDE Wheat
According to USDA: Projected 2018/19 wheat ending stocks are raised 36 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use and lower seed use. Feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels on larger than expected second-quarter stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report...