Australia
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT. Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT. Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...
Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples
Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle
Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 September 2020 Domestic Russian market wheat and barley prices mainly grew due to export demand. Corn prices were stable in the regions where the old harvested corn was sold and decreased in the regions that started quoting prices for 2020 corn. Export milling wheat...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 September 2020 Domestic Russian market wheat and barley prices mainly grew due to export demand. Corn prices were stable in the regions where the old harvested corn was sold and decreased in the regions that started quoting prices for 2020 corn. Export milling wheat...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Weather patterns across much of Europe and the Black Sea remain lodged in a hot, dry trend causing likely delays and reductions in winter crop planted areas. The EU Commission noted that “severe drought conditions” exist across eastern Romania, eastern Bulga...
China
Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire
The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire
The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales
China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...
Europe
ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act
ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act
ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle
Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...
India
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is 32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans – USDA reduced the estimated yield from 53.3 to 51.9 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks for the 2020/21 season were also reduced. Ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month. Lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is 32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans – USDA reduced the estimated yield from 53.3 to 51.9 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks for the 2020/21 season were also reduced. Ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month. Lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Wants Biotech Oilseeds and Higher Oil Tariffs
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report was both positive and somewhat disappointing. Sales of soybeans for the upcoming marketing year were large, but not for 2019/20. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were disappointing. However, exports of soybeans and soymeal last week...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
Rice Self-Sufficiency
It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire. Global rice trade hi...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
Rice Self-Sufficiency
It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire. Global rice trade hi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt intends to have a commodity exchange in place for the first half of 2021. The exchange will trade wheat, vegetable oils, rice, and sugar. Invested capital will be close to $6 million. Delivery points will be set at specific governmen...
North America
Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire
The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...
A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways
There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...
ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act
ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...
Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire
The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...
A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways
There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...
ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act
ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.75/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $342.1/short ton, up $6.8 from ye...
South America
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales
China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...
Russia
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...
U.S. Wheat’s Uncertain Future
During the past two decades one of the most important U.S. agricultural crop production trends has been the movement of corn and soybean plantings into traditional wheat production areas of the western and northern Plains. Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas have now become important producers of...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies; Corn and Soybeans Look for Direction
The CBOT opened higher with support coming from USDA daily “flash” export sales announcements. Corn and soybeans started to weaken by mid-morning, however, and finished the day with a relatively lackluster performance. Wheat, on the other hand, posted another day of double-digit gai...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...
U.S. Wheat’s Uncertain Future
During the past two decades one of the most important U.S. agricultural crop production trends has been the movement of corn and soybean plantings into traditional wheat production areas of the western and northern Plains. Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas have now become important producers of...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies; Corn and Soybeans Look for Direction
The CBOT opened higher with support coming from USDA daily “flash” export sales announcements. Corn and soybeans started to weaken by mid-morning, however, and finished the day with a relatively lackluster performance. Wheat, on the other hand, posted another day of double-digit gai...
Market Commentary - Torn Between Factors
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and soybeans posting lackluster days. The wheat market continued last week’s strength early in the session but quickly found selling pressure that created bearish signals on the charts. Funds were modest net buyers in corn and soybeans while...