Australia
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Wheat Update; Bullish World Corn Numbers
Last Friday we updated our view of the tightening world wheat situation and how that will eventually force the wheat market to rally. It was noted in different market commentaries this morning that wheat prices in Australia have been steadily separating themselves from world prices. The result...
All the Ingredients - But No Dough
U.S. wheat futures markets continue to trade in a relatively narrow range that is also near the bottom of a longer term-range (see the Chicago wheat chart below). Wheat markets should eventually break out of this bearish pattern for a number of fundamental reasons. USDA has been very slow to r...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Wheat Update; Bullish World Corn Numbers
Last Friday we updated our view of the tightening world wheat situation and how that will eventually force the wheat market to rally. It was noted in different market commentaries this morning that wheat prices in Australia have been steadily separating themselves from world prices. The result...
All the Ingredients - But No Dough
U.S. wheat futures markets continue to trade in a relatively narrow range that is also near the bottom of a longer term-range (see the Chicago wheat chart below). Wheat markets should eventually break out of this bearish pattern for a number of fundamental reasons. USDA has been very slow to r...
USDA’s October WASDE
After two months of bearish reports, there was a general feeling that USDA’s October WASDE, released today at noon (EDT), would add to that trend with even higher yields and production for U.S. corn and soybeans than the already huge September estimates. Moreover, USDA had to factor in th...
Asia
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
ASEM Reality; Derivative Oversight; Glyphobiasate
ASEM Reality EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Federica Mogherini says this week’s Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) to promote liberalized trade and climate change reduction was not an anti-Trump meeting, although she clearly instigated the agenda. The fact remains that except for Australia and N...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
ASEM Reality; Derivative Oversight; Glyphobiasate
ASEM Reality EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Federica Mogherini says this week’s Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) to promote liberalized trade and climate change reduction was not an anti-Trump meeting, although she clearly instigated the agenda. The fact remains that except for Australia and N...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...
New Trade Deals Proposed; Cattle on Feed Pre-Report Estimates
New Trade Deals Proposed This week the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) notified Congress of the administration’s intent to negotiate new trade agreements with Japan, the EU, and the UK. The notification is part of the statutory requirement under the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) grante...
Black Sea
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 October Most prices on the Russian grain market continued to rise, but some remained stable. Milling wheat export prices were steady at an average $232/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports were unchanged in RUB expression but grew in USD expression to $1...
China
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
Things Aren’t So Great in Brazil Either
There are stories almost daily about how low prices are causing pain for farmers across the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute is an issue in some Farm Belt states because it has driven soybean prices down. Corn and wheat also dropped in sympathy with soybeans. However, U.S farmers ha...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
Things Aren’t So Great in Brazil Either
There are stories almost daily about how low prices are causing pain for farmers across the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute is an issue in some Farm Belt states because it has driven soybean prices down. Corn and wheat also dropped in sympathy with soybeans. However, U.S farmers ha...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight following yesterday’s declines, and they slipped a bit more after the weekly export sales report was released 15 minutes before that session closed. Corn and soybean exports sales were much lower than expected, but wheat sales were at the high end of the expec...
Europe
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
ASEM Reality; Derivative Oversight; Glyphobiasate
ASEM Reality EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Federica Mogherini says this week’s Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) to promote liberalized trade and climate change reduction was not an anti-Trump meeting, although she clearly instigated the agenda. The fact remains that except for Australia and N...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
ASEM Reality; Derivative Oversight; Glyphobiasate
ASEM Reality EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Federica Mogherini says this week’s Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) to promote liberalized trade and climate change reduction was not an anti-Trump meeting, although she clearly instigated the agenda. The fact remains that except for Australia and N...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
New Trade Deals Proposed; Cattle on Feed Pre-Report Estimates
New Trade Deals Proposed This week the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) notified Congress of the administration’s intent to negotiate new trade agreements with Japan, the EU, and the UK. The notification is part of the statutory requirement under the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) grante...
India
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Oil Meal Exports Continue Upward Trend India’s oil meal exports totaled 1.403 MMT for the first six months of FY 2018/19 (April-March), up 0.119 MMT or 9 percent from 1.284 MMT a year ago. Rapeseed meal exports had the biggest gain at 0.601 MMT versus 0.3 MMT during April-September 2017...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Oil Meal Exports Continue Upward Trend India’s oil meal exports totaled 1.403 MMT for the first six months of FY 2018/19 (April-March), up 0.119 MMT or 9 percent from 1.284 MMT a year ago. Rapeseed meal exports had the biggest gain at 0.601 MMT versus 0.3 MMT during April-September 2017...
WASDE Soyoil
October estimate is U.S. soybean oil price unchanged at 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound. Despite lower global oilseed production, increased beginning stocks, mainly in the United States, results in a 2.0 million-ton increase to global oilseed ending stocks to 123.8 million. ...
Middle East & Africa
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 October Most prices on the Russian grain market continued to rise, but some remained stable. Milling wheat export prices were steady at an average $232/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports were unchanged in RUB expression but grew in USD expression to $1...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 October Most prices on the Russian grain market continued to rise, but some remained stable. Milling wheat export prices were steady at an average $232/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports were unchanged in RUB expression but grew in USD expression to $1...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading and again during the day session can best be described as dull. Volume was low, and price movement was subdued. The corn market managed to trade a 3-cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before the December contract settled down a penny with most de...
North America
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
Smile! $4.00 Corn Futures Ahead?
The options market has correctly foreseen corn futures’ march higher since mid-September and is signaling this rally isn’t over year. The corn and SRW wheat markets are leaning bullish while the implied volatilities from soybeans offer a more neutral outlook. For live cattle futures...
Things Aren’t So Great in Brazil Either
There are stories almost daily about how low prices are causing pain for farmers across the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute is an issue in some Farm Belt states because it has driven soybean prices down. Corn and wheat also dropped in sympathy with soybeans. However, U.S farmers ha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
Smile! $4.00 Corn Futures Ahead?
The options market has correctly foreseen corn futures’ march higher since mid-September and is signaling this rally isn’t over year. The corn and SRW wheat markets are leaning bullish while the implied volatilities from soybeans offer a more neutral outlook. For live cattle futures...
Things Aren’t So Great in Brazil Either
There are stories almost daily about how low prices are causing pain for farmers across the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute is an issue in some Farm Belt states because it has driven soybean prices down. Corn and wheat also dropped in sympathy with soybeans. However, U.S farmers ha...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
South America
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
Things Aren’t So Great in Brazil Either
There are stories almost daily about how low prices are causing pain for farmers across the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute is an issue in some Farm Belt states because it has driven soybean prices down. Corn and wheat also dropped in sympathy with soybeans. However, U.S farmers ha...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
Things Aren’t So Great in Brazil Either
There are stories almost daily about how low prices are causing pain for farmers across the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute is an issue in some Farm Belt states because it has driven soybean prices down. Corn and wheat also dropped in sympathy with soybeans. However, U.S farmers ha...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were up $2-5/MT last week and are now $15-23/MT (1,000-5,000 rubles/MT) higher versus early August. Exports from there already total approximately 16 MMT since the start of the campaign and will reach 20 MMT by mid-November at the current pace. The govern...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
Russia
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight following yesterday’s declines, and they slipped a bit more after the weekly export sales report was released 15 minutes before that session closed. Corn and soybean exports sales were much lower than expected, but wheat sales were at the high end of the expec...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading and again during the day session can best be described as dull. Volume was low, and price movement was subdued. The corn market managed to trade a 3-cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before the December contract settled down a penny with most de...
All the Ingredients - But No Dough
U.S. wheat futures markets continue to trade in a relatively narrow range that is also near the bottom of a longer term-range (see the Chicago wheat chart below). Wheat markets should eventually break out of this bearish pattern for a number of fundamental reasons. USDA has been very slow to r...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight following yesterday’s declines, and they slipped a bit more after the weekly export sales report was released 15 minutes before that session closed. Corn and soybean exports sales were much lower than expected, but wheat sales were at the high end of the expec...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading and again during the day session can best be described as dull. Volume was low, and price movement was subdued. The corn market managed to trade a 3-cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before the December contract settled down a penny with most de...
All the Ingredients - But No Dough
U.S. wheat futures markets continue to trade in a relatively narrow range that is also near the bottom of a longer term-range (see the Chicago wheat chart below). Wheat markets should eventually break out of this bearish pattern for a number of fundamental reasons. USDA has been very slow to r...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade volume was limited as the market awaited release of USDA’s October WASDE. Corn and wheat were a penny or so lower with soybeans down 4-5 cents, which all tracked with expectations of a bearish report. When the report came out at noon (EDT) today, the immediate conclusion w...