World Perspectives

Recent World Analysis

Australia

wheat

Wheat Volatility

ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commercial Buying Lifts CBOT; Corn, Soybeans Try to Forge Sideways Ranges

Friday’s selloff at the CBOT found aggressive end-user and commercial pricing activity on Monday. Markets traded lower overnight but triggered notable buying action as prices hit key support levels. The subsequent rally in the day session left the market with the feeling that near-term lo...

livestock

Beef with Beef Prices

The cost of beef around the world is highly variable. While the average for 97 countries is $11.40/pound for a kilo of top round or back leg equivalent, it will cost $55.58 in Switzerland and just $3.68 in Pakistan. That makes Switzerland 15 times more expensive to get a steak. Of course, it is...

wheat

Wheat Volatility

ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commercial Buying Lifts CBOT; Corn, Soybeans Try to Forge Sideways Ranges

Friday’s selloff at the CBOT found aggressive end-user and commercial pricing activity on Monday. Markets traded lower overnight but triggered notable buying action as prices hit key support levels. The subsequent rally in the day session left the market with the feeling that near-term lo...

livestock

Beef with Beef Prices

The cost of beef around the world is highly variable. While the average for 97 countries is $11.40/pound for a kilo of top round or back leg equivalent, it will cost $55.58 in Switzerland and just $3.68 in Pakistan. That makes Switzerland 15 times more expensive to get a steak. Of course, it is...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stoc...

Asia

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading

Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi’s policies. One area of criticism is “Make in India” campaign but that is not such a unique policy. Many countries are no...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading

Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi’s policies. One area of criticism is “Make in India” campaign but that is not such a unique policy. Many countries are no...

Sustainability Goals; Splintering Transatlantic; Korea Reveals WTO Flaws

Sustainability Goals Returning USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack says that agriculture is ready to embrace the goals of slowing climate change. President Biden has issued several executive orders limiting fossil fuel development and more are forthcoming. However, his centrally planned Build America Be...

Black Sea

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 February 2021 Russian domestic grain prices followed the pattern of the previous week. Meanwhile, export milling wheat average price grew to $289/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price amounted to RUB 14,600/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export pr...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 February 2021 Russian domestic grain prices followed the pattern of the previous week. Meanwhile, export milling wheat average price grew to $289/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price amounted to RUB 14,600/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export pr...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Soybeans; Ukraine Soybean Imports

Big Weekly Decline in U.S. Soybean Export Sales After five months of record U.S. soybean export sales and shipments it was clear sales had to sharply decline at some point to assure the domestic market of an adequate supply. Today’s USDA export sales report confirmed that the week ending...

China

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Note to Readers Coronavirus Hits Home Despite our best efforts to practice social distancing and good hygiene, including the wearing of masks in public, our staff was impacted by COVID-19 in February. One of our writer/editor’s and family members were hit pretty severely with the disease,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Under Fund Liquidation, KCBT Deliveries

The CBOT started higher overnight with Argentine dryness supporting trade. The day session saw prices try to continue the rally, only to run into heavy fund liquidation and short selling pressure. Large deliveries against KC wheat futures pressured the wheat market and pulled corn lower as well...

Betraying Self-Designation; Tricky TRIPS; Circular Firing Squad

Betraying Self-Designation China’s Communist Party is celebrating what it called a “complete victory” over extreme poverty in the country. President Xi Jinping credited the socialist system for “guarantees against risks, challenges and difficulties.” The People&rsq...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Note to Readers Coronavirus Hits Home Despite our best efforts to practice social distancing and good hygiene, including the wearing of masks in public, our staff was impacted by COVID-19 in February. One of our writer/editor’s and family members were hit pretty severely with the disease,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Under Fund Liquidation, KCBT Deliveries

The CBOT started higher overnight with Argentine dryness supporting trade. The day session saw prices try to continue the rally, only to run into heavy fund liquidation and short selling pressure. Large deliveries against KC wheat futures pressured the wheat market and pulled corn lower as well...

Betraying Self-Designation; Tricky TRIPS; Circular Firing Squad

Betraying Self-Designation China’s Communist Party is celebrating what it called a “complete victory” over extreme poverty in the country. President Xi Jinping credited the socialist system for “guarantees against risks, challenges and difficulties.” The People&rsq...

Dekulakization

There is a quasi-religion that believes Big Ag is bad and small farms are better, but economics is a system and economies of scale exists as a principle regardless of human desires to the contrary. Historian Merle Fainsod noted that during WWI, large estates in Russia produced enough grain for...

Europe

Inequivalent, Protectionist; Bulls and Pandemics

Inequivalent, Protectionist In 2012, the U.S. and EU established an agreement asserting that each other’s organic standards were substantially equivalent. The agreement was reviewed again in 2015 and may require additional review depending on one’s interpretation of “substanti...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

Inequivalent, Protectionist; Bulls and Pandemics

Inequivalent, Protectionist In 2012, the U.S. and EU established an agreement asserting that each other’s organic standards were substantially equivalent. The agreement was reviewed again in 2015 and may require additional review depending on one’s interpretation of “substanti...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading

Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi’s policies. One area of criticism is “Make in India” campaign but that is not such a unique policy. Many countries are no...

India

Folly of Anti-Big; Meating the Hurdles

Folly of Anti-Big A Washington Insider report states that a study by the Environmental Working Group (EWG) reveals that the Trump administration ‘aimed its “bailouts” increasingly to the nation's biggest farms.’ It correctly claims that 1 percent of farms received 23 per...

Stale Result; Mixed Messages on China; Transatlantic Carrot and Stick

Stale Result India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal has called for a “fresh package” trade agreement with the U.S. that is more ambitious than the effort with the Trump Administration. He denigrated the Trump effort as “nitpicking on every small issue.&rd...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indian Organic Products; Argentine Export Taxes

Another Week of Good U.S. Soybean Export Sales  Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exports had a good week selling U.S. soybeans in the week ending 4 February. Sales of soymeal also were good, but there was a net reduction in soyoil export sales. Net soybean export sales...

Folly of Anti-Big; Meating the Hurdles

Folly of Anti-Big A Washington Insider report states that a study by the Environmental Working Group (EWG) reveals that the Trump administration ‘aimed its “bailouts” increasingly to the nation's biggest farms.’ It correctly claims that 1 percent of farms received 23 per...

Stale Result; Mixed Messages on China; Transatlantic Carrot and Stick

Stale Result India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal has called for a “fresh package” trade agreement with the U.S. that is more ambitious than the effort with the Trump Administration. He denigrated the Trump effort as “nitpicking on every small issue.&rd...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indian Organic Products; Argentine Export Taxes

Another Week of Good U.S. Soybean Export Sales  Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exports had a good week selling U.S. soybeans in the week ending 4 February. Sales of soymeal also were good, but there was a net reduction in soyoil export sales. Net soybean export sales...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 1.5 cents to 40.0 cents per pound...

Middle East & Africa

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Wheat farmers in parts of Pakistan are complaining that government set wheat prices are going to lead to greatly increased smuggling and shortages of wheat supplies in some areas. There is a lot of confusion about prices with areas l...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Wheat farmers in parts of Pakistan are complaining that government set wheat prices are going to lead to greatly increased smuggling and shortages of wheat supplies in some areas. There is a lot of confusion about prices with areas l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Karachi port says that it has handled 2.5 MMT of imported wheat in the last four months. Wheat imports were mainly from Ukraine, Russia, and Germany. 200,000 MT of wheat has been discharged in February so far with another...

North America

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Amid Argentine Dryness, Slow Export News

The CBOT was mostly lower in decidedly consolidative trade on Wednesday. Ag futures seem to be bumping up against key support levels where end-users are extending purchases. Short sellers seem to be mostly absent the market amid South American weather concerns and expectations that USDA will of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.56/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.075/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soymeal closed at $418.8/short ton, down $2...

Inequivalent, Protectionist; Bulls and Pandemics

Inequivalent, Protectionist In 2012, the U.S. and EU established an agreement asserting that each other’s organic standards were substantially equivalent. The agreement was reviewed again in 2015 and may require additional review depending on one’s interpretation of “substanti...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Amid Argentine Dryness, Slow Export News

The CBOT was mostly lower in decidedly consolidative trade on Wednesday. Ag futures seem to be bumping up against key support levels where end-users are extending purchases. Short sellers seem to be mostly absent the market amid South American weather concerns and expectations that USDA will of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.56/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.075/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soymeal closed at $418.8/short ton, down $2...

Inequivalent, Protectionist; Bulls and Pandemics

Inequivalent, Protectionist In 2012, the U.S. and EU established an agreement asserting that each other’s organic standards were substantially equivalent. The agreement was reviewed again in 2015 and may require additional review depending on one’s interpretation of “substanti...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Sourcing Changes; Prices Attractive

U.S. export sales are seasonally slowing, which is impacting CBOT futures. American farmers have nonetheless had a good run. The value of the dollar is up 1.6 percent from its low at the start of the year, which further adds competitive pressure.   After nearly a four-month run of U.S...

South America

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Amid Argentine Dryness, Slow Export News

The CBOT was mostly lower in decidedly consolidative trade on Wednesday. Ag futures seem to be bumping up against key support levels where end-users are extending purchases. Short sellers seem to be mostly absent the market amid South American weather concerns and expectations that USDA will of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Sourcing Changes; Prices Attractive

U.S. export sales are seasonally slowing, which is impacting CBOT futures. American farmers have nonetheless had a good run. The value of the dollar is up 1.6 percent from its low at the start of the year, which further adds competitive pressure.   After nearly a four-month run of U.S...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Amid Argentine Dryness, Slow Export News

The CBOT was mostly lower in decidedly consolidative trade on Wednesday. Ag futures seem to be bumping up against key support levels where end-users are extending purchases. Short sellers seem to be mostly absent the market amid South American weather concerns and expectations that USDA will of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Sourcing Changes; Prices Attractive

U.S. export sales are seasonally slowing, which is impacting CBOT futures. American farmers have nonetheless had a good run. The value of the dollar is up 1.6 percent from its low at the start of the year, which further adds competitive pressure.   After nearly a four-month run of U.S...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

Russia

Dekulakization

There is a quasi-religion that believes Big Ag is bad and small farms are better, but economics is a system and economies of scale exists as a principle regardless of human desires to the contrary. Historian Merle Fainsod noted that during WWI, large estates in Russia produced enough grain for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s new export tax scheme has, according to WPI sources, effectively stopped sales for the spring, and particularly new crop positions. The new tax took effect 15 February as well as the 17.5 MMT quota and the floating tax calculation will start 1 April for all ex...

wheat

Wheat Volatility

ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...

Dekulakization

There is a quasi-religion that believes Big Ag is bad and small farms are better, but economics is a system and economies of scale exists as a principle regardless of human desires to the contrary. Historian Merle Fainsod noted that during WWI, large estates in Russia produced enough grain for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s new export tax scheme has, according to WPI sources, effectively stopped sales for the spring, and particularly new crop positions. The new tax took effect 15 February as well as the 17.5 MMT quota and the floating tax calculation will start 1 April for all ex...

wheat

Wheat Volatility

ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...

Transatlantic Dance; Return of That 70’s Show

Transatlantic Dance Brussels and Washington are beginning to work together again. This week the EU acknowledged that America’s concern with the WTO’s appellate process has validity, and President Biden’s USTR decided against using the carousel of mixing up the products current...

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