Australia
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat opened lower Sunday with soybeans slightly higher. Everything was slightly lower by the time markets closed this morning, and that is how they opened the day session. Soybeans traded back and forth with small gains or losses through much of today. Wheat was moderately lower with...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
What USDA Didn’t Say
This week’s WASDE report from USDA was considered slightly bullish for prices, although that certainly wasn’t apparent by the market’s action during the past few trading sessions. U.S. corn and soybean ending supplies were reduced. World demand remains very strong, but crop pr...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat opened lower Sunday with soybeans slightly higher. Everything was slightly lower by the time markets closed this morning, and that is how they opened the day session. Soybeans traded back and forth with small gains or losses through much of today. Wheat was moderately lower with...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
What USDA Didn’t Say
This week’s WASDE report from USDA was considered slightly bullish for prices, although that certainly wasn’t apparent by the market’s action during the past few trading sessions. U.S. corn and soybean ending supplies were reduced. World demand remains very strong, but crop pr...
Any USDA Surprises Tomorrow?
USDA will release its June WASDE (supply/demand) report tomorrow. Will there be any substantive surprises in tomorrow’s numbers? That is doubtful. It is more likely that markets will continue to worry more about all the various trade issues and the North Korean talks than changes in suppl...
Asia
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Tariff Impact on Upper Midwest; India’s Soyoil Tariff
Chinese Tariffs Impact on Upper Midwest Soybean Farmers Barring a settlement to the current trade dispute, China is expected to impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans effective 6 July. It appears the situation may intensify after President Trump yesterday threatened to implement additional...
Illogical War; Illogical Reparations; Precaution or Hysteria?; Relations and Wars
Illogical War One can imagine more sophisticated approaches to rebalancing trade concessions than the one undertaken by the Trump administration. The president’s assertion was that a larger trade deficit and lower average tariffs mean the U.S. is in a stronger negotiating position. Howeve...
Decision Time on Chinese Trade
These days it may seem as though grain markets have little else to consider beyond the U.S./Chinese trade dispute and its potential ramifications. We probably should apologize for spending so much time discussing it. Actually, there is a great deal more than the Chinese situation facing markets...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Tariff Impact on Upper Midwest; India’s Soyoil Tariff
Chinese Tariffs Impact on Upper Midwest Soybean Farmers Barring a settlement to the current trade dispute, China is expected to impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans effective 6 July. It appears the situation may intensify after President Trump yesterday threatened to implement additional...
Illogical War; Illogical Reparations; Precaution or Hysteria?; Relations and Wars
Illogical War One can imagine more sophisticated approaches to rebalancing trade concessions than the one undertaken by the Trump administration. The president’s assertion was that a larger trade deficit and lower average tariffs mean the U.S. is in a stronger negotiating position. Howeve...
Decision Time on Chinese Trade
These days it may seem as though grain markets have little else to consider beyond the U.S./Chinese trade dispute and its potential ramifications. We probably should apologize for spending so much time discussing it. Actually, there is a great deal more than the Chinese situation facing markets...
Market Commentary
The overnight market did not seem to know how to take the results of the Trump/Kim Jong Un meeting in Singapore. It ended with an announced agreement to denuclearize North Korea and for the U.S. to cease joint military exercises with South Korea. As always, the “devil is in the details,&r...
Black Sea
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat opened lower Sunday with soybeans slightly higher. Everything was slightly lower by the time markets closed this morning, and that is how they opened the day session. Soybeans traded back and forth with small gains or losses through much of today. Wheat was moderately lower with...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market had a weaker tone last week with the new crop harvest approaching and as export commitments for the first quarter of the new campaign are lower than a year ago at this time. The buyers/consumers in the major destinations are confused due to the conflicting rep...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat opened lower Sunday with soybeans slightly higher. Everything was slightly lower by the time markets closed this morning, and that is how they opened the day session. Soybeans traded back and forth with small gains or losses through much of today. Wheat was moderately lower with...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market had a weaker tone last week with the new crop harvest approaching and as export commitments for the first quarter of the new campaign are lower than a year ago at this time. The buyers/consumers in the major destinations are confused due to the conflicting rep...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
What USDA Didn’t Say
This week’s WASDE report from USDA was considered slightly bullish for prices, although that certainly wasn’t apparent by the market’s action during the past few trading sessions. U.S. corn and soybean ending supplies were reduced. World demand remains very strong, but crop pr...
China
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments Will China Ultimately Retaliate? Coming on the heels of President Trump’s announcement last week confirming that his administration would implement its proposed 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of exports from China, Beijing said it would respond in kind with tar...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain futures prices were lower to open the overnight session, and losses grew as trading progressed into the early morning. Understandably, soybeans were the downside leader as they are most directly threatened by Chinese tariffs. They were down more than 20 cents when trading rece...
Looking Ahead at the China Trade Dispute
Yesterday President Trump asked the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent. His statement noted, “After the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practic...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments Will China Ultimately Retaliate? Coming on the heels of President Trump’s announcement last week confirming that his administration would implement its proposed 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of exports from China, Beijing said it would respond in kind with tar...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain futures prices were lower to open the overnight session, and losses grew as trading progressed into the early morning. Understandably, soybeans were the downside leader as they are most directly threatened by Chinese tariffs. They were down more than 20 cents when trading rece...
Looking Ahead at the China Trade Dispute
Yesterday President Trump asked the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent. His statement noted, “After the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practic...
Trade War Havoc
Trade wars invariably involve government actions intended to impede, punish or prevent imports and exports of goods between two or more countries. The most common ammunition used by participants is the imposition of higher tariffs and/or surcharges on either imports of specific items or on an a...
Europe
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market had a weaker tone last week with the new crop harvest approaching and as export commitments for the first quarter of the new campaign are lower than a year ago at this time. The buyers/consumers in the major destinations are confused due to the conflicting rep...
Trade War Chapters Three and Four; NAFTA Dairy Confusion; Tech Solution
Trade War Chapters Three and Four President Trump’s “easy to win” trade war is heating up, and U.S. farm groups are beginning to push back against it. This week the Trump administration announced that it would apply 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of “industriall...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market had a weaker tone last week with the new crop harvest approaching and as export commitments for the first quarter of the new campaign are lower than a year ago at this time. The buyers/consumers in the major destinations are confused due to the conflicting rep...
Trade War Chapters Three and Four; NAFTA Dairy Confusion; Tech Solution
Trade War Chapters Three and Four President Trump’s “easy to win” trade war is heating up, and U.S. farm groups are beginning to push back against it. This week the Trump administration announced that it would apply 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of “industriall...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
Roadblock Italy; Lemon to a Knife Fight
Roadblock Italy The new Italian government says it will not ratify the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada. It is a major agreement, but the Italians say it does too little to protect their country’s specialty foods. This does not bode well for EU c...
India
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Tariff Impact on Upper Midwest; India’s Soyoil Tariff
Chinese Tariffs Impact on Upper Midwest Soybean Farmers Barring a settlement to the current trade dispute, China is expected to impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans effective 6 July. It appears the situation may intensify after President Trump yesterday threatened to implement additional...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Production Up; Prices Nose-Dive As noted in earlier reports, India’s sugar production in sugar year 2017/18 (November-October) is expected to reach 32 MMT, and that is having an effect on ethanol production. The latter is now expected to total 3.11 billion liters (0.822 bill...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Sales; U.S. Soy; Indian Vegoil Tariffs; Brazil’s Strike Aftermath
China Sells Reserve Soybeans China’s National Grain Trade Center today announced the government sold 192,324 MT of reserve stock soybeans at auction. They were sold at 3,043 yuan/MT ($476/MT), only 1.4 percent above the minimum sales price of 3,000 yuan/MT. The volume sold was approximate...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Tariff Impact on Upper Midwest; India’s Soyoil Tariff
Chinese Tariffs Impact on Upper Midwest Soybean Farmers Barring a settlement to the current trade dispute, China is expected to impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans effective 6 July. It appears the situation may intensify after President Trump yesterday threatened to implement additional...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Production Up; Prices Nose-Dive As noted in earlier reports, India’s sugar production in sugar year 2017/18 (November-October) is expected to reach 32 MMT, and that is having an effect on ethanol production. The latter is now expected to total 3.11 billion liters (0.822 bill...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Sales; U.S. Soy; Indian Vegoil Tariffs; Brazil’s Strike Aftermath
China Sells Reserve Soybeans China’s National Grain Trade Center today announced the government sold 192,324 MT of reserve stock soybeans at auction. They were sold at 3,043 yuan/MT ($476/MT), only 1.4 percent above the minimum sales price of 3,000 yuan/MT. The volume sold was approximate...
U.S.-Canada Road Forward; Limits of Tariffs; Real Ag Problems
U.S.-Canada Road Forward Donald Trump initially thought that U.S. agriculture was a problem for him since the sector was so paranoid about trade retaliation that it cried out loudly for him to “do no harm.” Now he has come to realize that it presents some of the best examples of pro...
Middle East & Africa
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As part of its budget control measures, Egypt has announced price increases of 35-40 percent for gasoline (depending on the grade) and 60 percent for home cooking gas. This announcement was made during the Eid Al-Fitr holidays to avoid any org...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria and Russia are said to be developing a shipping route between Tartus, Syria and Sebastopol, Crimea, mainly for the supply of grain to Syria but also for building materials. Syria will ship agricultural products to Sebastopol. “Rebe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 May-1 June 2018 Domestic grain prices mainly grew as the volumes of stocks offered on the market were limited. Thus, despite the record results of MY 2017/18 grain exports, which may total 54 MMT, sellers rather than buyers are now determining the domestic market price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As part of its budget control measures, Egypt has announced price increases of 35-40 percent for gasoline (depending on the grade) and 60 percent for home cooking gas. This announcement was made during the Eid Al-Fitr holidays to avoid any org...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria and Russia are said to be developing a shipping route between Tartus, Syria and Sebastopol, Crimea, mainly for the supply of grain to Syria but also for building materials. Syria will ship agricultural products to Sebastopol. “Rebe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 May-1 June 2018 Domestic grain prices mainly grew as the volumes of stocks offered on the market were limited. Thus, despite the record results of MY 2017/18 grain exports, which may total 54 MMT, sellers rather than buyers are now determining the domestic market price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Tunisia’s grain harvest for this year is forecast to drop 200,000 MT to a total 1.4 MMT, which includes 923,000 MT of durum wheat, 119,000 MT soft wheat and 362,000 MT of barley. Dr...
North America
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments Will China Ultimately Retaliate? Coming on the heels of President Trump’s announcement last week confirming that his administration would implement its proposed 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of exports from China, Beijing said it would respond in kind with tar...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain futures prices were lower to open the overnight session, and losses grew as trading progressed into the early morning. Understandably, soybeans were the downside leader as they are most directly threatened by Chinese tariffs. They were down more than 20 cents when trading rece...
Looking Ahead at the China Trade Dispute
Yesterday President Trump asked the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent. His statement noted, “After the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practic...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments Will China Ultimately Retaliate? Coming on the heels of President Trump’s announcement last week confirming that his administration would implement its proposed 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of exports from China, Beijing said it would respond in kind with tar...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain futures prices were lower to open the overnight session, and losses grew as trading progressed into the early morning. Understandably, soybeans were the downside leader as they are most directly threatened by Chinese tariffs. They were down more than 20 cents when trading rece...
Looking Ahead at the China Trade Dispute
Yesterday President Trump asked the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent. His statement noted, “After the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practic...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportunities in those commodities are rapidly changing as well. Finally, livestock and soft commodity futures are analyzed and their forward curve...
South America
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain futures prices were lower to open the overnight session, and losses grew as trading progressed into the early morning. Understandably, soybeans were the downside leader as they are most directly threatened by Chinese tariffs. They were down more than 20 cents when trading rece...
Trade War Havoc
Trade wars invariably involve government actions intended to impede, punish or prevent imports and exports of goods between two or more countries. The most common ammunition used by participants is the imposition of higher tariffs and/or surcharges on either imports of specific items or on an a...
China Tariffs and U.S. Exports
The imposition of trade tariffs on imports from China and that country’s corresponding retaliation against imports from the U.S. have had a profoundly negative impact on corn, wheat and soybean prices since negotiations broke down. These trade issues have overwhelmed some bullish fundamen...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain futures prices were lower to open the overnight session, and losses grew as trading progressed into the early morning. Understandably, soybeans were the downside leader as they are most directly threatened by Chinese tariffs. They were down more than 20 cents when trading rece...
Trade War Havoc
Trade wars invariably involve government actions intended to impede, punish or prevent imports and exports of goods between two or more countries. The most common ammunition used by participants is the imposition of higher tariffs and/or surcharges on either imports of specific items or on an a...
China Tariffs and U.S. Exports
The imposition of trade tariffs on imports from China and that country’s corresponding retaliation against imports from the U.S. have had a profoundly negative impact on corn, wheat and soybean prices since negotiations broke down. These trade issues have overwhelmed some bullish fundamen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War Trading was slow in Brazil last week with an old-crop basis rally due to lack of farmer selling and news on the U.S.-China trade war. The latter included a Trump tweet about a possible tariff on Chinese imports, which was officially announced Thursday...
Russia
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As part of its budget control measures, Egypt has announced price increases of 35-40 percent for gasoline (depending on the grade) and 60 percent for home cooking gas. This announcement was made during the Eid Al-Fitr holidays to avoid any org...
WASDE Corn
USDA noted that export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are record high. Corn feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels with increased ethanol by-product prod...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Tunisia’s grain harvest for this year is forecast to drop 200,000 MT to a total 1.4 MMT, which includes 923,000 MT of durum wheat, 119,000 MT soft wheat and 362,000 MT of barley. Dr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As part of its budget control measures, Egypt has announced price increases of 35-40 percent for gasoline (depending on the grade) and 60 percent for home cooking gas. This announcement was made during the Eid Al-Fitr holidays to avoid any org...
WASDE Corn
USDA noted that export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are record high. Corn feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels with increased ethanol by-product prod...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Tunisia’s grain harvest for this year is forecast to drop 200,000 MT to a total 1.4 MMT, which includes 923,000 MT of durum wheat, 119,000 MT soft wheat and 362,000 MT of barley. Dr...
U.S.-China Transaction; Industrial Policy; Farm Bill Calamity; Pollan on LSD
U.S.-China Transaction U.S. President Donald Trump is offering to resurrect Chinese smartphone maker ZTE in exchange for improved market access by American businesses, including agriculture. ZTE was practically shut down after being denied critical U.S. technology due to violating sanctions aga...