Australia
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...
EU-U.S. Deal on Beef
This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...
Reading China; Bully Strategy
Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...
EU-U.S. Deal on Beef
This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...
Reading China; Bully Strategy
Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are reduced as a smaller carry-in is not completely offset by higher production. Forecast 2019/20 U.S. wheat production is raised 18 mil...
Asia
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...
China
Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives
China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...
Europe
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
India
WASDE Soyoil
USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.07 billion bushels, up 20 million. China’s soybean imports are lowered 2 million tons to 85 million reflecti...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 165 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is forec...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.07 billion bushels, up 20 million. China’s soybean imports are lowered 2 million tons to 85 million reflecti...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 165 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is forec...
A New Normal for U.S.-China Trade?
The modern U.S.-China trade relationship has always been strained. President George W. Bush addressed this challenge by bringing China into the WTO to force its compliance with global trading rules. However, that didn’t work. While two-way trade did grow significantly, so did China&r...
Middle East & Africa
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
North America
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.4 from...
Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.7975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.4 from...
Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the economy. While it is true that inverted yield curves preceded each of the last seven recessions, the phenomenon is a symptom and not a cause. I...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...
South America
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 August)
Update for 16 August 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's mid-day pricing. Tweet Update for 1 August 2019: New routes added: Agrentina to Japan, Brazil to Japan 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to refle...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 15 August 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets found a bottom this week and bounced off it. From a technical point of view, you would say that things gapped higher. Now, the market is wondering if this is a true turn around or if...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Russia
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from that country. As a result of the retaliation, U.S. soybean exports in 2018/19...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from that country. As a result of the retaliation, U.S. soybean exports in 2018/19...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...