Australia
Market Commentary
There were several reasons to be bearish today and not much countering the mood. USDA’s Outlook released this morning framed the year ahead as fundamentally stable and an improvement over 2019. It will be for wheat with prices forecast to increase 8 percent and soybeans with a 1 percent r...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 February at 102.4 percent of last year. If accurate, at about 11.85 million head, that would be the largest Feb...
Agriculture/Environment Nexus; Europe Follows U.S.
Agriculture/Environment Nexus EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told the European Parliament this week that pesticide and fertilizer use will be reduced to respond to “citizen concerns,” which is not a good indicator of science-based standards. Meanwhile, French farmers are u...
Market Commentary
There were several reasons to be bearish today and not much countering the mood. USDA’s Outlook released this morning framed the year ahead as fundamentally stable and an improvement over 2019. It will be for wheat with prices forecast to increase 8 percent and soybeans with a 1 percent r...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 February at 102.4 percent of last year. If accurate, at about 11.85 million head, that would be the largest Feb...
Agriculture/Environment Nexus; Europe Follows U.S.
Agriculture/Environment Nexus EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told the European Parliament this week that pesticide and fertilizer use will be reduced to respond to “citizen concerns,” which is not a good indicator of science-based standards. Meanwhile, French farmers are u...
Market Commentary
Overnight news that Australia’s 2019/20 wheat crop will be smaller than expected set the stage for a sharp rally in the CBOT wheat markets. Morning calls were for wheat to open higher and pull corn along with it, which is exactly what happened. Few, if any, analysts, however, expected whe...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Virus and Trade
There is a debate over how much the coronavirus experience will impact international trade and globalization. On the one hand, dependence on supply chains that easily get broken and cross-contamination from international travel informs the negative side of the equation. On the other side are al...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Virus and Trade
There is a debate over how much the coronavirus experience will impact international trade and globalization. On the one hand, dependence on supply chains that easily get broken and cross-contamination from international travel informs the negative side of the equation. On the other side are al...
Virus Economic Impact
How the economy and consumers react to the coronavirus will be important to the food and agriculture sector. A large economic decline like the Great Recession beginning in September 2008 caused the stock market to continue losing money until March of 2009. That means that any single day’s...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
No Shortage of Food
There is a shortage of respirators and masks, but not food. The actual exporting of food has slowed in some cases due to restrictions on labor, but Bloomberg’s Isis Almeida and Agnieszka de Sousa assembled the following list of food export bans: • Kazakhstan has banned exports of whe...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
No Shortage of Food
There is a shortage of respirators and masks, but not food. The actual exporting of food has slowed in some cases due to restrictions on labor, but Bloomberg’s Isis Almeida and Agnieszka de Sousa assembled the following list of food export bans: • Kazakhstan has banned exports of whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 March 2020 Grain prices on the domestic Russian market kept increasing in ruble expression but dropped in dollar expression as the ruble weakened significantly. Meanwhile on the export market, milling wheat average price grew to $210/MT FOB Black Sea. Purchase price...
China
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Viral Opinion; Opposing Views
Viral Opinion A YouGov/Economist survey found that Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to be extremely concerned about the coronavirus. This started a twitter food fight over which party is dumber – the answer is they both are wrong. Affective polarization or negative feelings...
Hog Herd up 4 Percent; Pork Demand Unpredictable
USDA released the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday. Some topline highlights: Total swine inventory on 1 March was 77.6 million head, 104 percent of March 2019, but 99 percent of 1 December 2019. Market hogs were above pre-report expectations Breeding herd was below pre-report...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Viral Opinion; Opposing Views
Viral Opinion A YouGov/Economist survey found that Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to be extremely concerned about the coronavirus. This started a twitter food fight over which party is dumber – the answer is they both are wrong. Affective polarization or negative feelings...
Hog Herd up 4 Percent; Pork Demand Unpredictable
USDA released the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday. Some topline highlights: Total swine inventory on 1 March was 77.6 million head, 104 percent of March 2019, but 99 percent of 1 December 2019. Market hogs were above pre-report expectations Breeding herd was below pre-report...
Global Deterioration
On the one hand, no country has greater experience with epidemics than China (Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, SARS, etc.), and because the nature of such communicable diseases in a globalized world leads to pandemics, Beijing is correct that cooperation is key to the solution. But no one seems quite...
Europe
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Global Deterioration
On the one hand, no country has greater experience with epidemics than China (Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, SARS, etc.), and because the nature of such communicable diseases in a globalized world leads to pandemics, Beijing is correct that cooperation is key to the solution. But no one seems quite...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Global Deterioration
On the one hand, no country has greater experience with epidemics than China (Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, SARS, etc.), and because the nature of such communicable diseases in a globalized world leads to pandemics, Beijing is correct that cooperation is key to the solution. But no one seems quite...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates It might be a good idea for all people in the grain business, with an eye to COVID-19, to read section 21 of GAFTA contract #27: “Prevention of Shipment”. This section, which is included in most GAFTA contracts, helps to clarify buyer/seller situation in the case of...
India
Supply Policies; Covid Impacts
Supply Policies India’s pursuit of public stockholding of food surpluses is an old answer to an even older question – what policy to use to manage supply/demand imbalances. Then there is the issue of the externalities resulting from any of the chosen approaches. Just three countries...
WADSE Soyoil
USDA reduced the average U.S. soybean oil prices by 2 cents to 31.5 cents per pound. A notable change is a 1-million-ton reduction for palm oil production, mainly in Malaysia and Colombia, leading to a 19 percent year-over-year decline in global vegetable oil stocks...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 are mostly unchanged in the March WASDE. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.70 per bushel, down 5 cents. With soybean crush and exports projected at 2.1 billion bushels and 1.8 billion bushels, respecti...
Supply Policies; Covid Impacts
Supply Policies India’s pursuit of public stockholding of food surpluses is an old answer to an even older question – what policy to use to manage supply/demand imbalances. Then there is the issue of the externalities resulting from any of the chosen approaches. Just three countries...
WADSE Soyoil
USDA reduced the average U.S. soybean oil prices by 2 cents to 31.5 cents per pound. A notable change is a 1-million-ton reduction for palm oil production, mainly in Malaysia and Colombia, leading to a 19 percent year-over-year decline in global vegetable oil stocks...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 are mostly unchanged in the March WASDE. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.70 per bushel, down 5 cents. With soybean crush and exports projected at 2.1 billion bushels and 1.8 billion bushels, respecti...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates The COVID19 outbreak continues to be the dominating force in commodity and equity markets around the world. With the virus curtailing travel and causing crude oil prices to plummet, commodities tied to oil (like soyoil) are receiving commensurate selling pressure. More broadly,...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates It might be a good idea for all people in the grain business, with an eye to COVID-19, to read section 21 of GAFTA contract #27: “Prevention of Shipment”. This section, which is included in most GAFTA contracts, helps to clarify buyer/seller situation in the case of...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates It might be a good idea for all people in the grain business, with an eye to COVID-19, to read section 21 of GAFTA contract #27: “Prevention of Shipment”. This section, which is included in most GAFTA contracts, helps to clarify buyer/seller situation in the case of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt has seen very unseasonal rains recently and there is concern that the local wheat crop may be damaged due to flooding in many areas. The complaints and worries about rain are not country wide as some agricultural products, like alfal...
North America
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.46/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.815/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 20 Soymeal closed at $323.1/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
The Economics of Flu
Inclusive Costs (NBER Working Paper No. 22137; March 2016): This study included former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and found that a large pandemic imposed the same inclusive economic costs as global warming - $570 billion/year. Collective Action (NBER Working Paper No. 17195; July 20...
South America
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Market Commentary
The market was called to open higher with traders adjusting positions ahead of next week’s Planting Intentions report. The CBOT opened mostly in-line with expectations but quickly turned mixed with profit taking in soymeal creating two-sided trade in soyoil. Spread trading was light and w...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)
Update for 27 March 2020: New Data Added!! French rapeseed French sunflower seed French and Bulgarian feed barley Bulgarian feed wheat All other routes/offers updated through the day's close. Freight Comments for 26 March 2020: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)
Data Updated Through: 27 March 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 26 March 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggr...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Problems; U.S. Soy Plantings
Large U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week The week was a good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoil according to today’s USDA export sales report. The large sales included what appears to be three cargoes of soybeans to China. Net soybean export sales last week totaled 904,30...
Russia
No Shortage of Food
There is a shortage of respirators and masks, but not food. The actual exporting of food has slowed in some cases due to restrictions on labor, but Bloomberg’s Isis Almeida and Agnieszka de Sousa assembled the following list of food export bans: • Kazakhstan has banned exports of whe...
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates Imploding financial markets, sharply weaker crude oil, and ever-growing concerns about the economic impacts of coronavirus continue to be the primary drivers of market action this week. Demand and consumption concerns are growing for most commodities, keeping prices on the defe...
No Shortage of Food
There is a shortage of respirators and masks, but not food. The actual exporting of food has slowed in some cases due to restrictions on labor, but Bloomberg’s Isis Almeida and Agnieszka de Sousa assembled the following list of food export bans: • Kazakhstan has banned exports of whe...
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates Imploding financial markets, sharply weaker crude oil, and ever-growing concerns about the economic impacts of coronavirus continue to be the primary drivers of market action this week. Demand and consumption concerns are growing for most commodities, keeping prices on the defe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 March 2020 Grain prices on the domestic Russian market changed little. We’ll see significant changes caused by ruble rate decrease during the week starting 9 March. Meanwhile, on the export market prices kept decreasing: milling wheat average price decreased to...