Australia
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...
Down Under Limits
Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...
Down Under Limits
Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Japan Approves New Safeguard Triggers on U.S. Beef
Last week the Upper House of Japan’s Diet approved a new beef safeguard protocol which amends the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA). That is the final step of approval needed for the agreement and the two countries are finalizing the implementation procedures. The protocol was negotiated...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Japan Approves New Safeguard Triggers on U.S. Beef
Last week the Upper House of Japan’s Diet approved a new beef safeguard protocol which amends the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA). That is the final step of approval needed for the agreement and the two countries are finalizing the implementation procedures. The protocol was negotiated...
Wheat Concerns in Asia
Asia has been adopting wheat as a food staple over many decades but the war In Ukraine has some worried about its supply reliability. Over the past dozen years, rice consumption has averaged a 0.86 percent annual increase while wheat consumption has been growing at twice that rate. Because clim...
Black Sea
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Market Commentary: Soy Rally Continues; Wheat, Corn Drift Lower; House Moves to Preempt Rail Strike
The CBOT largely continued its prior trends on Tuesday with soybeans adding to Monday’s rally despite a pullback in soyoil. Corn chopped sideways again and stayed within the range that has defined its trade for the past thirteen trading days. SRW wheat bounced higher as funds took a brief...
China
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID Restrictions Eased in Some Key Cities, Tension Lingers The recent public protests in Shanghai and Beijing marked a level of civil unrest not normally seen in China, since the landmark event of Tiananmen Square in 1989. This is not to say that protests or outrage over governm...
Market Commentary: Soy Rally Continues; Wheat, Corn Drift Lower; House Moves to Preempt Rail Strike
The CBOT largely continued its prior trends on Tuesday with soybeans adding to Monday’s rally despite a pullback in soyoil. Corn chopped sideways again and stayed within the range that has defined its trade for the past thirteen trading days. SRW wheat bounced higher as funds took a brief...
Market Commentary: Argentina Creates New “Soy Dollar”; CBOT Soy Complex Rallies; Hog Selloff Intensifies
The CBOT started the day on a weak note with the protests in China and the government’s resulting crackdown creating widespread pressure on financial and commodity markets. The protests and the government’s response created worries about the Middle Kingdom’s demand for a myria...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID Restrictions Eased in Some Key Cities, Tension Lingers The recent public protests in Shanghai and Beijing marked a level of civil unrest not normally seen in China, since the landmark event of Tiananmen Square in 1989. This is not to say that protests or outrage over governm...
Market Commentary: Soy Rally Continues; Wheat, Corn Drift Lower; House Moves to Preempt Rail Strike
The CBOT largely continued its prior trends on Tuesday with soybeans adding to Monday’s rally despite a pullback in soyoil. Corn chopped sideways again and stayed within the range that has defined its trade for the past thirteen trading days. SRW wheat bounced higher as funds took a brief...
Market Commentary: Argentina Creates New “Soy Dollar”; CBOT Soy Complex Rallies; Hog Selloff Intensifies
The CBOT started the day on a weak note with the protests in China and the government’s resulting crackdown creating widespread pressure on financial and commodity markets. The protests and the government’s response created worries about the Middle Kingdom’s demand for a myria...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Brazil Finally, the first vessel loaded with Brazil corn and destined for China will leave the port of Santos this week. The vessel Mv Star Iris is set to load 68,000 MT of corn for COFCO. Many expected Brazil to start shipping corn in 2023, but others expected it to occur in December 2022...
Europe
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Transatlantic Crisis
The daily messaging from Europe is that it is in crisis, and not only does Washington not care, but it is also making things worse. Truthfully, the complaints are met with a smirk by those in U.S. agriculture. Brussels accuses Washington of distorting markets with its Inflation Reduction Act (I...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Transatlantic Crisis
The daily messaging from Europe is that it is in crisis, and not only does Washington not care, but it is also making things worse. Truthfully, the complaints are met with a smirk by those in U.S. agriculture. Brussels accuses Washington of distorting markets with its Inflation Reduction Act (I...
AMLO Spits on U.S. Corn; Sovereign Right to EV’s; Green Fertilizer Dreams
AMLO Spits on U.S. Corn If there were any doubts in the U.S. government about Mexico’s intent about GMO corn, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador cleared up their unwarranted confusion. He said Mexico could not buy GMO corn because there is no evidence it is safe. In a Tru...
India
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 220 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil price is also unchanged at 69 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is f...
Blame the Rice Boogey Man
Rice is the top staple food crop in Asia and the third largest global crop after corn and sugarcane. When rice production is in trouble, people pay attention. This year’s crop is suffering from flooding in Thailand, the sixth largest producer and second largest exporter. Plus excess rain...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. soybean production to 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. Due to lower exports offseting by increased crush, ending sto...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 220 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil price is also unchanged at 69 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is f...
Blame the Rice Boogey Man
Rice is the top staple food crop in Asia and the third largest global crop after corn and sugarcane. When rice production is in trouble, people pay attention. This year’s crop is suffering from flooding in Thailand, the sixth largest producer and second largest exporter. Plus excess rain...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. soybean production to 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. Due to lower exports offseting by increased crush, ending sto...
Policy Conflicts and Solutions; India Highlighted
Policy Conflicts and Solutions Policymakers are realizing that the three big issues of climate change, sustainability and food security are conflicting. The Cairns Group is comprised of highly competitive agricultural exporting countries and so their frustration with the conflicts at the WTO is...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka will benefit from a program by Thailand and the United Nations to supply quality maize seed to help with increasing food security – the maize will be used in the livestock industry when harvested...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka will benefit from a program by Thailand and the United Nations to supply quality maize seed to help with increasing food security – the maize will be used in the livestock industry when harvested...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s COP27 conference has set a new “123 Pledge” program that is directed at reducing food waste in production, handling, retail and consumer levels. Fourteen percent of food is said to be los...
North America
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Bounce in Wheat; Soy Extends its Rally; EIA RVOs Still Pending
The CBOT was mostly higher at mid-week with soymeal and soybeans leading the way in a demand-fueled rally. Wheat traded sideways for the morning but eventually found some buying interest and rallied heading into the close to settle 12-14 cents higher. The wheat rally lacked any fundamental just...
Strange Bedfellows; Lobby Opportunity; Labor Hurdle
Strange Bedfellows The oil industry and U.S. agriculture have long conflicted with one another. The oil industry strongly opposed the ethanol blending mandate pushed through the Congress by the agriculture sector. Ethanol not only replaced the oil industry’s gasoline, but it also created...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.67/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.955/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jan 23 Soybeans closed at $14.695/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 23 Soymeal closed at $417.8/short ton, up $10.2 from yes...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Bounce in Wheat; Soy Extends its Rally; EIA RVOs Still Pending
The CBOT was mostly higher at mid-week with soymeal and soybeans leading the way in a demand-fueled rally. Wheat traded sideways for the morning but eventually found some buying interest and rallied heading into the close to settle 12-14 cents higher. The wheat rally lacked any fundamental just...
Strange Bedfellows; Lobby Opportunity; Labor Hurdle
Strange Bedfellows The oil industry and U.S. agriculture have long conflicted with one another. The oil industry strongly opposed the ethanol blending mandate pushed through the Congress by the agriculture sector. Ethanol not only replaced the oil industry’s gasoline, but it also created...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.67/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.955/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jan 23 Soybeans closed at $14.695/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 23 Soymeal closed at $417.8/short ton, up $10.2 from yes...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
South America
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Market Commentary: Argentina Creates New “Soy Dollar”; CBOT Soy Complex Rallies; Hog Selloff Intensifies
The CBOT started the day on a weak note with the protests in China and the government’s resulting crackdown creating widespread pressure on financial and commodity markets. The protests and the government’s response created worries about the Middle Kingdom’s demand for a myria...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Nov.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 17 November 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is still an up and down Dry Bulk market situation with no defined direction. This market is mostly steaming in circles hoping to find support. Capesize markets have uncovered some improved demand in iron ore cargo,...
Market Commentary: Argentina Creates New “Soy Dollar”; CBOT Soy Complex Rallies; Hog Selloff Intensifies
The CBOT started the day on a weak note with the protests in China and the government’s resulting crackdown creating widespread pressure on financial and commodity markets. The protests and the government’s response created worries about the Middle Kingdom’s demand for a myria...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Brazil Finally, the first vessel loaded with Brazil corn and destined for China will leave the port of Santos this week. The vessel Mv Star Iris is set to load 68,000 MT of corn for COFCO. Many expected Brazil to start shipping corn in 2023, but others expected it to occur in December 2022...
Russia
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Bolsters Corn Futures; Wheat Selloff Accelerates
Corn was the upside leader for the CBOT in a generally quiet day of post-Thanksgiving trading. The Export Sales report offered support for corn but did little for the other major ag commodities. Soybeans traded both sides of unchanged and ended slightly higher while wheat sold off sharply headi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 November 2022 Russia continues to harvest a record crop - over 150 MMT currently. Even more interesting are current Russian stocks and carryover. Russian Statistics Agency reported that as of 1 November, Russia’s grain stocks are 42.6 MMT, up 31 percent from 2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Bolsters Corn Futures; Wheat Selloff Accelerates
Corn was the upside leader for the CBOT in a generally quiet day of post-Thanksgiving trading. The Export Sales report offered support for corn but did little for the other major ag commodities. Soybeans traded both sides of unchanged and ended slightly higher while wheat sold off sharply headi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 November 2022 Russia continues to harvest a record crop - over 150 MMT currently. Even more interesting are current Russian stocks and carryover. Russian Statistics Agency reported that as of 1 November, Russia’s grain stocks are 42.6 MMT, up 31 percent from 2...
Market Commentary: Erase Part of Yesterday
As forewarned in yesterday’s commentary, “if there is an extension of the corridor agreement, expect U.S. wheat to tumble hard and fast.” The missile that hit Poland turned out to possibly be an errant output of Ukrainian air defense. Plus, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Serg...