World Perspectives

Recent World Analysis

Australia

livestock

Bye Bye Black Sheep

New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, which is no longer an economically supportive coproduct. Wool is less needed in a warming world with many man-made alternative fibers, and lan...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year.  The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...

livestock

Bye Bye Black Sheep

New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, which is no longer an economically supportive coproduct. Wool is less needed in a warming world with many man-made alternative fibers, and lan...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year.  The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals

Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...

Asia

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

livestock

Evolving Markets

Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

livestock

Evolving Markets

Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...

feed-grains

Japan Boosts Corn and Protein

Japan’s population is declining by a half percent per year and will be 2 million smaller this year than in 2020. Nearly a third of the population is over 65 years of age, adding to the lower food demand factors. Yet the latest Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreig...

Black Sea

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower

Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade. Trading volume was expectedly light ahead of the one-day break in trading and few markets made major moves. Those that did, however, include...

China

softs

Geopolitical Trade Substitution

Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the green pea trade was 37.9 percent in 2022, while Russia supplied 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, China is both the largest producer and importer of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control

Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support

Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia and China. The rally in soyoil – and the broader vegoil complex – helped push soybeans higher and at one point November soybeans...

softs

Geopolitical Trade Substitution

Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the green pea trade was 37.9 percent in 2022, while Russia supplied 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, China is both the largest producer and importer of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control

Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support

Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia and China. The rally in soyoil – and the broader vegoil complex – helped push soybeans higher and at one point November soybeans...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?

CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...

Europe

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Capital Investment and Productivity

While much of the focus on Europe relates to political instability in the EU, and threats from Russia, there are ample economic issues that also need to be addressed. This is true in both industrial production and agricultural output. European farms continue to lag their American counterparts i...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Capital Investment and Productivity

While much of the focus on Europe relates to political instability in the EU, and threats from Russia, there are ample economic issues that also need to be addressed. This is true in both industrial production and agricultural output. European farms continue to lag their American counterparts i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe saw mixed weather trends last week with showers in western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Balkans. Ukraine received little to no rainfall, however, and Russia was also dry, except for light showers in the southern region. Dryness and heat building over eastern Europe re...

India

Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan

U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most populous country. They are likely suffering from what the great psychologist and behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman called focusing illus...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...

Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan

U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most populous country. They are likely suffering from what the great psychologist and behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman called focusing illus...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Grains Fall After Bullish USDA Reports; Panic Not Finished in Cattle Markets

The CBOT was mostly red on Monday with traders seeing little reason to buy the soy complex after a benign and semi-bearish Grain Stocks and acreage reports for soybeans. Further, they saw little reason to keep buying corn and wheat amid large on-farm stocks and amply supplied global balance she...

Middle East & Africa

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30.  Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30.  Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year’s harvest. The government’s local wheat buying target of 3.5 MMT has been exceeded. Egypt’s wheat reserves now stand at 6...

North America

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double

Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double

Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Summer Cattle

The beef and cattle market is now past the milestone 4th of July holiday, between Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends that define the high demand season. Beef demand has held up so far and so has cattle supply, perhaps more than otherwise would have been expected. The last cattle on feed report...

South America

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double

Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 12 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 12 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with paper and physical markets showing diverging trends. The Baltic Dry indexes were mostly higher this week (except for the Capesize sector, which posted late-week declines) but physical markets wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double

Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further

Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE stability emerge while oilseeds and livestock futures sold off sharply again. The vegoil rally that last week’s tensions between Indonesi...

Russia

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?

CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?

CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia’s harvesting campaign is underway. Fresh demand for new crop barley has seen better price levels and as long as feed barley exports are...

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