Australia
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Eat Your Rice
South Korea wants more rice to be consumed and is subsidizing rice for college students, the cohort least likely to eat breakfast, and is incentivizing food products made from rice flour. Rice production is dropping as population growth has stalled, but rice consumption is dropping even faster...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Eat Your Rice
South Korea wants more rice to be consumed and is subsidizing rice for college students, the cohort least likely to eat breakfast, and is incentivizing food products made from rice flour. Rice production is dropping as population growth has stalled, but rice consumption is dropping even faster...
Grain Substitution
Grain producers saw the value of their output fall in 2023 and the best they can hope for in 2024 is to stem the bleeding. Meanwhile, Europeans are frustrated as the price of cocoa has risen more than 50 percent over the past year. Asians are frightened as the price of rice has risen nearly 40...
Black Sea
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...
China
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Market Commentary: Short Run Bulls Battle Long Run Bears
The CBOT is fighting a battle between improving short run technicals and bearish long run fundamentals, which is apt to keep the market choppy heading into planting season. Technical traders won Monday’s battle in the grains at least, with corn and wheat pushing higher and the latter scor...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Market Commentary: Short Run Bulls Battle Long Run Bears
The CBOT is fighting a battle between improving short run technicals and bearish long run fundamentals, which is apt to keep the market choppy heading into planting season. Technical traders won Monday’s battle in the grains at least, with corn and wheat pushing higher and the latter scor...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
Europe
Cahiers Redux – Politicians Recoil
The Cahiers de doléances [or kaje for short] were the pre-French revolution (1789) lists of societal complaints. The collective disappointments of the clergy, the nobility, and the rest of society too. Nothing has changed. Documents of the time cite the criticisms as: government waste, i...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission is proposing new support measures for farmers after widespread protests rocked the region in recent weeks. Farmers were pushing back against the suite of regulations aimed at making European farming more climate friendly. Russia attacked the Ukrainian port...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Cahiers Redux – Politicians Recoil
The Cahiers de doléances [or kaje for short] were the pre-French revolution (1789) lists of societal complaints. The collective disappointments of the clergy, the nobility, and the rest of society too. Nothing has changed. Documents of the time cite the criticisms as: government waste, i...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission is proposing new support measures for farmers after widespread protests rocked the region in recent weeks. Farmers were pushing back against the suite of regulations aimed at making European farming more climate friendly. Russia attacked the Ukrainian port...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
India
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Hail in India; Corn, Soy Turn Higher on Technical Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with unexpected hail and rain damage to India’s wheat crop lifting world wheat markets while corn and soybeans followed through on last week’s supportive technical trade. Funds were net buyers across the CBOT for the day despite holding a...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Hail in India; Corn, Soy Turn Higher on Technical Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with unexpected hail and rain damage to India’s wheat crop lifting world wheat markets while corn and soybeans followed through on last week’s supportive technical trade. Funds were net buyers across the CBOT for the day despite holding a...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
Targeting India’s Rice Subsidies
At the behest of the domestic rice industry, U.S. House Ways & Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) asked the U.S. International Trade Commission to conduct Section 332 fact-finding investigation of global competitiveness in rice, which the industry claims is skewed by unfair trade prac...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 March)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 March 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets were mostly higher this week with higher cargo demand from the East Coast of South America pushing Panamax and Supramax rates higher. Freight forward agreements (FFAs) for Panamax vessels are also rising with the average...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 March and will end on 9 or 10 April. Business, government, and banking working hours will be reduced during the Ramadan period. Egypt will be c...
North America
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Monetary Policy Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this week; interest rates were last raised in July 2023, and during Q4 when rates were held steady markets were hopeful that was a signal that a rate cut would be coming in 2024. Right now, however, the Federal Funds Futures market...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.36/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8775/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Monetary Policy Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this week; interest rates were last raised in July 2023, and during Q4 when rates were held steady markets were hopeful that was a signal that a rate cut would be coming in 2024. Right now, however, the Federal Funds Futures market...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.36/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8775/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
South America
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Brazil’s Meat Opportunity
Brazil has famously surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and it could become a more consistent top exporter of corn. However, its livestock production lags. Brazil’s soybean production has been expanding at an average 5.5 percent per year, and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Intense rains have fallen over practically all of Argentina’s agricultural region in the last few days, delaying the corn harvest. The reported weekly progress was only 1 percent, and the total harvested area stands at only 3.2 percent. Several days of good weather will be nece...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Brazil’s Meat Opportunity
Brazil has famously surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and it could become a more consistent top exporter of corn. However, its livestock production lags. Brazil’s soybean production has been expanding at an average 5.5 percent per year, and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Intense rains have fallen over practically all of Argentina’s agricultural region in the last few days, delaying the corn harvest. The reported weekly progress was only 1 percent, and the total harvested area stands at only 3.2 percent. Several days of good weather will be nece...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Russia
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Peas Please
As noted in today’s Black Sea report, the price of peas in Russia are rising as exports go unfettered by any export tax. Canada is by far the largest exporter of peas with a two-thirds market share. But Russia is second with a 12.4 percent market share, the U.S. exports about 9 percent of...