Australia
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
How Big is Big?
One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes. Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...
Malt Prices Rising
The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
How Big is Big?
One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes. Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...
Malt Prices Rising
The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...
Market Commentary
Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morning by the Export Sales report. Let’s start with the economy. It suffered a huge contraction due to COVID-19. Everyone knew that before...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Yield versus Exporting
U.S. corn farmers out-yield their competitors but then lose to the competition’s lower prices. Similarly, Vietnam has the highest rice yields in Southeast Asia but fails to compete with Thailand in exporting despite the latter having the smallest yield in the region. According to industry...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Yield versus Exporting
U.S. corn farmers out-yield their competitors but then lose to the competition’s lower prices. Similarly, Vietnam has the highest rice yields in Southeast Asia but fails to compete with Thailand in exporting despite the latter having the smallest yield in the region. According to industry...
Beef Growth and Decline
Beef is expensive to produce, emits the most greenhouse gases, is highly cultural in some places and has a highly evolving demand structure. Over the past decade, consumption of beef in otherwise relatively large consuming Russia has declined the most of any of the top 20 countries. Note that t...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...
China
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is coming to an end, per the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The yield averaged 8.1 MT/ha and total production came in at 50 MMT. This is the first time that corn production exceeded soybeans in Argentina. This year’s harvest progress was also very quick,...
Europe
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...
Values-Based Trading; Inflation Amuck
Values-Based Trading In the latest effort to block a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, activist groups Uplift and TASC issued a report claiming agricultural and climate practices in South America are “inconsistent” with EU values. Values-based trading now joins vaccine na...
India
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
Currency Manipulation; Phase One Intentions; India Recognizing Ag Policy Constraints
Currency Manipulation Goldman Sachs is warning that the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency is at risk. Threats include inflation, political uncertainty and debt/slow economic growth related to the coronavirus. The U.S. dollar has fallen over 10 percent in value since t...
Cattlemen Dinged on Leather
The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed demand for fashion generally and this has reverberated to the leather industry. The hide, which is the largest component of slaughter’s byproducts, only adds about 3 percent to a rancher’s income but has nonetheless been important. A glut of hides in...
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
Currency Manipulation; Phase One Intentions; India Recognizing Ag Policy Constraints
Currency Manipulation Goldman Sachs is warning that the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency is at risk. Threats include inflation, political uncertainty and debt/slow economic growth related to the coronavirus. The U.S. dollar has fallen over 10 percent in value since t...
Cattlemen Dinged on Leather
The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed demand for fashion generally and this has reverberated to the leather industry. The hide, which is the largest component of slaughter’s byproducts, only adds about 3 percent to a rancher’s income but has nonetheless been important. A glut of hides in...
Phase One Status; Small Beer
Phase One Status China’s Foreign Ministry yesterday said it remains committed to the Phase One trade deal it reached with the U.S. but warned it will respond to “bullying” from Washington. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) calculates that China has purch...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA News from the Middle East and North Africa is limited this week due to the Eid al Adha holidays in the area – the holiday is normally four or five days, depending on the country. The World Bank is providing $202 million for the...
North America
PM Post - Lighter and Rangebound
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 1 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with more short-covering in grains and profit-taking in oilshare. Traders were unwindi...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
PM Post - Lighter and Rangebound
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 1 1/2 higher September wheat: 4 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with more short-covering in grains and profit-taking in oilshare. Traders were unwindi...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report
SPREADS Sep/Dec corn spreads continue to have heavy volume, with nearly 80K traded Monday, and is trading from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c today. The spread traded out to 13c before encountering short-covering activity. Short-covering was noted in corn yesterday, with September open interest...
South America
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Values-Based Trading; Inflation Amuck
Values-Based Trading In the latest effort to block a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, activist groups Uplift and TASC issued a report claiming agricultural and climate practices in South America are “inconsistent” with EU values. Values-based trading now joins vaccine na...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)
Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)
Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...
Values-Based Trading; Inflation Amuck
Values-Based Trading In the latest effort to block a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, activist groups Uplift and TASC issued a report claiming agricultural and climate practices in South America are “inconsistent” with EU values. Values-based trading now joins vaccine na...
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
Russia
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
How Big is Big?
One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes. Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
How Big is Big?
One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes. Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...