Australia
AM Outlook - Trends Intact
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened close to home, higher for soy with some light profit-taking in wheat. All markets are higher heading into the close led by wheat. Minneapolis wheat trades into contract highs, and oats have traded into all-time record highs. Matif wheat made n...
Double Exposure; New Old Era
Double Exposure In a concept paper yesterday at the WTO, the U.S. outlined its lessons from the pandemic in terms of a more resilient planet. Notably missing from the report was any mention of the TRIPS agreement hindering vaccinations against disease. The reason for its absence is the mounting...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President of the Almond Board Alliance of California. Her prior experience includes serving as Deputy Secretary and Assistant Secretary at the Califor...
AM Outlook - Trends Intact
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened close to home, higher for soy with some light profit-taking in wheat. All markets are higher heading into the close led by wheat. Minneapolis wheat trades into contract highs, and oats have traded into all-time record highs. Matif wheat made n...
Double Exposure; New Old Era
Double Exposure In a concept paper yesterday at the WTO, the U.S. outlined its lessons from the pandemic in terms of a more resilient planet. Notably missing from the report was any mention of the TRIPS agreement hindering vaccinations against disease. The reason for its absence is the mounting...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President of the Almond Board Alliance of California. Her prior experience includes serving as Deputy Secretary and Assistant Secretary at the Califor...
Future Industry Impacts; Minimum Wage and Farm Labor
Future Industry Impacts The push toward shorter supply chains and plant-based food products will have perverse impacts on the food marketing industry. For example, eating local runs directly counter to the use of geographic indicators, which seeks to protect and promote the sale of food in non-...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Creeping Toward CPTPP
President Biden said he would first build back America’s infrastructure before re-engaging the U.S. in trade agreements. It should be noted that his infrastructure packages are stalled on Capitol Hill at the same time his trade policy has been creeping along toward fruition. Transatlantic...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Creeping Toward CPTPP
President Biden said he would first build back America’s infrastructure before re-engaging the U.S. in trade agreements. It should be noted that his infrastructure packages are stalled on Capitol Hill at the same time his trade policy has been creeping along toward fruition. Transatlantic...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Soybean Stocks; Palm Oil Price; ND Soy Crush Plant
U.S. Soy Export Sales and Exports Update Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters had a positive week selling U.S. soybeans for export in the week ending 23 September. Soybean exports also picked up from the previous week. Sales of soymeal also were fairly positive. ...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 October 2021 The average prices on the Russian grain market showed minimal growth. One of the main factors preventing further significant growth is that it’s impossible for the Russian exporters to continue increasing their offer prices (or their product will...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 October 2021 The average prices on the Russian grain market showed minimal growth. One of the main factors preventing further significant growth is that it’s impossible for the Russian exporters to continue increasing their offer prices (or their product will...
Vegetable Oil Volatility
Although global vegetable oil prices have moderated from their peaks this past spring, they remain substantially elevated above historic values. However, certain deviations have begun to occur between the oils, with some returning to more traditional relationships and others acting more anomalo...
China
Shifting Protein Consumption
By far, Americans consume more animal protein than either China or the EU, but the composition is different. The Chinese and Europeans consume more pork per capita than the U.S., while Americans eat more beef and poultry. However, the composition of animal protein in the diet has changed in bo...
Market Commentary: Downside of Up
Markets have their ups and downs and today was the downside of up. After pretty much adding points for the last several days, today was a modest correction. There were macro influences such as oil pressed lower and the dollar higher. Equities were mixed, with the Dow dragged lower by sin...
Read My Lips; Trickle Down Policy; Red Threat
Read My Lips Former U.S. President George H.W. Bush infamously assured voters that he would not raise taxes by saying, “Read my lips.” Once elected, he raised taxes. Mexican Agriculture Minister Victor Villalobos reassured USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack that his country would not allow...
Shifting Protein Consumption
By far, Americans consume more animal protein than either China or the EU, but the composition is different. The Chinese and Europeans consume more pork per capita than the U.S., while Americans eat more beef and poultry. However, the composition of animal protein in the diet has changed in bo...
Market Commentary: Downside of Up
Markets have their ups and downs and today was the downside of up. After pretty much adding points for the last several days, today was a modest correction. There were macro influences such as oil pressed lower and the dollar higher. Equities were mixed, with the Dow dragged lower by sin...
Read My Lips; Trickle Down Policy; Red Threat
Read My Lips Former U.S. President George H.W. Bush infamously assured voters that he would not raise taxes by saying, “Read my lips.” Once elected, he raised taxes. Mexican Agriculture Minister Victor Villalobos reassured USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack that his country would not allow...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; China Soy Stocks; New Renewable Diesel Facility
U.S. Soybean Export Sales and Exports Continue to Surge Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report confirmed exporters are seeing surging sales of soybeans for export as well as loading large shipments of soybeans for export. Soymeal export sales also are rising, but not as fast as for soybeans...
Europe
Sustainability Impacts; Sustainability Lingo
Sustainability Impacts Policymakers brandishing climate change and sustainability as their objectives may find adverse impacts hitting their home markets harder. Part of the mantra that is supposedly better for the environment is short supply chains. Using policy to shorten supply chains rather...
Shifting Protein Consumption
By far, Americans consume more animal protein than either China or the EU, but the composition is different. The Chinese and Europeans consume more pork per capita than the U.S., while Americans eat more beef and poultry. However, the composition of animal protein in the diet has changed in bo...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Sustainability Impacts; Sustainability Lingo
Sustainability Impacts Policymakers brandishing climate change and sustainability as their objectives may find adverse impacts hitting their home markets harder. Part of the mantra that is supposedly better for the environment is short supply chains. Using policy to shorten supply chains rather...
Shifting Protein Consumption
By far, Americans consume more animal protein than either China or the EU, but the composition is different. The Chinese and Europeans consume more pork per capita than the U.S., while Americans eat more beef and poultry. However, the composition of animal protein in the diet has changed in bo...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
India
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Stocks; Another Soy Crush Plant; China Vegoil Imports; India Tariffs
USDA WASDE Report Substantially Loosens Soy Supply/Demand Situation Only a few days after USDA raised its estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2020/21, it again raised its estimates for stocks in 2021/22 with its 12 October WASDE crop production report. By increasing its forecast for the...
Land Rents Smooth Sector
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There is much angst that more than half of cropland in the U.S. is rented, with the usual opprobrium involving farmers at the mercy of landlords, and landlords reaping the benefits of government subsidies. Researchers at the IMF, Princeton, and the University of Toronto studied the farmland ren...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Stocks; Another Soy Crush Plant; China Vegoil Imports; India Tariffs
USDA WASDE Report Substantially Loosens Soy Supply/Demand Situation Only a few days after USDA raised its estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2020/21, it again raised its estimates for stocks in 2021/22 with its 12 October WASDE crop production report. By increasing its forecast for the...
Land Rents Smooth Sector
There is much angst that more than half of cropland in the U.S. is rented, with the usual opprobrium involving farmers at the mercy of landlords, and landlords reaping the benefits of government subsidies. Researchers at the IMF, Princeton, and the University of Toronto studied the farmland ren...
India’s Opportunity; Mexico’s Loss; Meat of the Issue
India’s Opportunity Sometime next year India will promulgate its next five-year Foreign Trade Policy (FTP). Based on the past five years, India has been operating an anti-trade policy. Average tariffs on industrial goods have risen from an average 13.3 percent to 17.6 percent, and in agri...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Sorghum Dominance
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the largest sorghum producing region in the world, growing nearly 44 percent of global output. Yet it exports and imports only a small fraction of globally traded milo. Production in the region has been relatively stable. By contrast, world trade in sorghum has been...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Sorghum Dominance
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the largest sorghum producing region in the world, growing nearly 44 percent of global output. Yet it exports and imports only a small fraction of globally traded milo. Production in the region has been relatively stable. By contrast, world trade in sorghum has been...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhara Holdings announced plans to build five animal feed facilities in Eastern Europe (Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria). The company’s first venture is a 120,000 MT per year feed mill in Serbia with 20,000 MT...
North America
Cattle on Feed
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. was 1 percent below October 1, 2020. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.16 million head, 3 percent below 2020. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.79 million head, 3 percent below 2020. Oth...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. was 1 percent below October 1, 2020. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.16 million head, 3 percent below 2020. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.79 million head, 3 percent below 2020. Oth...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Cattle on Feed: Surprise (Kind of, but Not Really) on Placements
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today showing a total inventory of cattle and calves in feed yards of 11.6 million head on 1 October. That was in-line with pre-report expectations and is the second highest October inventory on record – last year was the highest. Marketings...
South America
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 October)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 October 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Volatility is the one constant in dry-bulk markets, and I have no doubts about it continuing through the next year or more. The global fleet is insufficient to meet growing market needs – especially those of China...
Market Commentary: Downside of Up
Markets have their ups and downs and today was the downside of up. After pretty much adding points for the last several days, today was a modest correction. There were macro influences such as oil pressed lower and the dollar higher. Equities were mixed, with the Dow dragged lower by sin...
Russia
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Higher on China Buying Rumors, Soymeal Short Covering; Grains End Mixed
The CBOT was mixed Tuesday with wheat leading the way higher overnight but with the day session seeing increased weakness in grains while oilseeds rallied. Chinese buying is rumored to be underpinning the soy complex, but no fresh daily export sales announcements have been made. Canadian and Eu...
Market Commentary: Putin Pressures Energies; CBOT Ends Mixed; Commercials Book Soymeal
The CBOT was mixed in low-volume trade with corn and soybeans turning lower while wheat traded a volatile day and ended slightly higher. Energy markets were weaker, which pressured soyoil and soybeans, but commercial users took the recent break in soymeal to book physical needs. The October WAS...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Higher on China Buying Rumors, Soymeal Short Covering; Grains End Mixed
The CBOT was mixed Tuesday with wheat leading the way higher overnight but with the day session seeing increased weakness in grains while oilseeds rallied. Chinese buying is rumored to be underpinning the soy complex, but no fresh daily export sales announcements have been made. Canadian and Eu...
Market Commentary: Putin Pressures Energies; CBOT Ends Mixed; Commercials Book Soymeal
The CBOT was mixed in low-volume trade with corn and soybeans turning lower while wheat traded a volatile day and ended slightly higher. Energy markets were weaker, which pressured soyoil and soybeans, but commercial users took the recent break in soymeal to book physical needs. The October WAS...
Disappearing Fertilizer Supply
On 26 July, WPI wrote about the Department of Commerce decision to consider countervailing duties (CVD) and anti-dumping duties (AD) on imports of urea ammonium nitrate solutions (UAN) from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago. The preliminary alleged margins are 169 to 433 percent on UAN imports fro...