Australia
Bye Bye Black Sheep
New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, which is no longer an economically supportive coproduct. Wool is less needed in a warming world with many man-made alternative fibers, and lan...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Bye Bye Black Sheep
New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, which is no longer an economically supportive coproduct. Wool is less needed in a warming world with many man-made alternative fibers, and lan...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
Asia
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Perceived Rice Shortage
Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Perceived Rice Shortage
Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT...
Evolving Markets
Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...
Black Sea
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
China
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Europe
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
Doubling Down on Protectionism; Conflicting CAP Goals
Doubling Down on Protectionism Typically, the party platforms crafted every four years by Republicans and Democrats are equally meaningless. Some of their policy prescriptions become codified but many do not. But speakers at this week’s Republican Convention are leaving no doubt that &ldq...
India
Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan
U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most populous country. They are likely suffering from what the great psychologist and behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman called focusing illus...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan
U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most populous country. They are likely suffering from what the great psychologist and behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman called focusing illus...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall After Bullish USDA Reports; Panic Not Finished in Cattle Markets
The CBOT was mostly red on Monday with traders seeing little reason to buy the soy complex after a benign and semi-bearish Grain Stocks and acreage reports for soybeans. Further, they saw little reason to keep buying corn and wheat amid large on-farm stocks and amply supplied global balance she...
Middle East & Africa
Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
North America
Market Commentary: Down on the Day but Some Ups for the Week
Most of the major agricultural commodity contracts opened today’s trading session in the red and stayed that way to the close. Only feeder cattle and lean hogs managed small gains on the day. New contract lows were hit for December soyoil, September SRW and September HRW. Volume was overa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.31 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.7/short ton, down $4.5...
Friday Shorts
Non-Meat: In a first, a Europe-based company has sought EU approval to market lab-grown meat, in this case fake foie gras. Some member states have already banned such products. While lab-grown meat remains expensive, and plant-based meat substitutes have faced declining popularity, the increase...
Market Commentary: Down on the Day but Some Ups for the Week
Most of the major agricultural commodity contracts opened today’s trading session in the red and stayed that way to the close. Only feeder cattle and lean hogs managed small gains on the day. New contract lows were hit for December soyoil, September SRW and September HRW. Volume was overa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.31 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.7/short ton, down $4.5...
Friday Shorts
Non-Meat: In a first, a Europe-based company has sought EU approval to market lab-grown meat, in this case fake foie gras. Some member states have already banned such products. While lab-grown meat remains expensive, and plant-based meat substitutes have faced declining popularity, the increase...
June Cold Storage Report
June 2024 total red meat and poultry stocks were up slightly from May but 5.4 percent below June 2023 levels due to sharp declines in poultry and pork stocks. Total poultry stocks were down 7.8 percent year-over-year (YoY) due to reductions in broiler slaughter for the month. Total pork stocks...
South America
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Russia
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...