World Perspectives

Recent World Analysis

Australia

China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s

China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washington trade community to speculate that the White House will emphasize USMCA passage in the next few weeks. President Trump has backed away from...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Estimates:  U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks.  Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. ...

wheat

Wheat Over-Supported

Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The st...

China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s

China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washington trade community to speculate that the White House will emphasize USMCA passage in the next few weeks. President Trump has backed away from...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Estimates:  U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks.  Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. ...

wheat

Wheat Over-Supported

Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The st...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Reports:  The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks.  Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30.  Projected imports are...

Asia

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA Estimates: U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bushels, down 118 million from last month on a 1.4-bushel reduction in yield to 167.0 bushels per acre.  The season-average corn price rece...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA Estimates: U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bushels, down 118 million from last month on a 1.4-bushel reduction in yield to 167.0 bushels per acre.  The season-average corn price rece...

USMCA Trouble; Thai Troubles; Farmers versus the Facts

USMCA Trouble U.S. House Ways & Means trade subcommittee member Bill Pascrell (D-New Jersey) says he is leaning toward voting against USMCA because the Mexicans are not doing enough meaningful labor reform. Organized labor in the U.S. has taken a strong line, demanding actions by Mexico tha...

Black Sea

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) continued to grow but the rate of growth slowed. Corn prices slightly decreased. Milling wheat export prices decreased to $206/MT FOB Black Sea. Purchase prices remained within RUB 12,400-12,500/MT. Feed bar...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) continued to grow but the rate of growth slowed. Corn prices slightly decreased. Milling wheat export prices decreased to $206/MT FOB Black Sea. Purchase prices remained within RUB 12,400-12,500/MT. Feed bar...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) were still growing despite the global downward trend. Growth of prices in Siberia was more significant due to demand for Siberian grain from Kazakhstan. Milling wheat export prices remained...

China

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Spread activity was the main CBOT driver today, with traders initially buying soybeans and selling wheat and corn. Long soymeal/short soyoil trading was notable as well. Disappointing export sales for corn and wheat triggered liquidation in those two commodities. Soybeans had gotten cheap enoug...

livestock

Chicken for China

Per Dave Juday’s recent Livestock Roundup report, China has ample opportunity to replace its lost pork production with imports of pork or chicken meat. China has reportedly lost nearly half its hog herd and pork prices, excluding offal, are up to $2.02/pound. This price is significantly a...

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Spread activity was the main CBOT driver today, with traders initially buying soybeans and selling wheat and corn. Long soymeal/short soyoil trading was notable as well. Disappointing export sales for corn and wheat triggered liquidation in those two commodities. Soybeans had gotten cheap enoug...

livestock

Chicken for China

Per Dave Juday’s recent Livestock Roundup report, China has ample opportunity to replace its lost pork production with imports of pork or chicken meat. China has reportedly lost nearly half its hog herd and pork prices, excluding offal, are up to $2.02/pound. This price is significantly a...

Game of Chicken; Hard and Fast Numbers; Glyphosate Addiction

Game of Chicken U.S. officials were celebrating China’s announcement that after half a dozen years of bogus excuses for keeping out American poultry, Beijing opened its market. The announcement came a week after the U.S. announced the opening of its market to cooked Chinese poultry meat...

Europe

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

Game of Chicken; Hard and Fast Numbers; Glyphosate Addiction

Game of Chicken U.S. officials were celebrating China’s announcement that after half a dozen years of bogus excuses for keeping out American poultry, Beijing opened its market. The announcement came a week after the U.S. announced the opening of its market to cooked Chinese poultry meat...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

Game of Chicken; Hard and Fast Numbers; Glyphosate Addiction

Game of Chicken U.S. officials were celebrating China’s announcement that after half a dozen years of bogus excuses for keeping out American poultry, Beijing opened its market. The announcement came a week after the U.S. announced the opening of its market to cooked Chinese poultry meat...

Expanded Trade War Tools; Olive Dynamics

Expanded Trade War Tools The Trump Administration expanded its areas of attack on the WTO, bringing in questions about procedures and allocation of resources. The multi-pronged attack is intended to further pressure the institution into reform of its appellate process and other perceived defici...

India

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Increased Brazilian Soymeal Exports, U.S. Domestic Soymeal Demand

U.S. Soymeal Exports to Face More Competition from Brazil The U.S. has faced aggressive competition in exporting soymeal from Brazil and Argentina for at least two decades. However, it appears the competition will intensify if the government of Brazil moves ahead with its plan to boost biodiese...

softs

Alternative Crops

U.S. cotton farmers are lamenting a season in which they planted a lot of acres, faced lower yields due to weather, lower prices due to competition from Brazil, and restricted markets due to the U.S. - China trade war. Still, natural fibers remain a buoyant market and cotton was always a fallba...

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Increased Brazilian Soymeal Exports, U.S. Domestic Soymeal Demand

U.S. Soymeal Exports to Face More Competition from Brazil The U.S. has faced aggressive competition in exporting soymeal from Brazil and Argentina for at least two decades. However, it appears the competition will intensify if the government of Brazil moves ahead with its plan to boost biodiese...

softs

Alternative Crops

U.S. cotton farmers are lamenting a season in which they planted a lot of acres, faced lower yields due to weather, lower prices due to competition from Brazil, and restricted markets due to the U.S. - China trade war. Still, natural fibers remain a buoyant market and cotton was always a fallba...

USMCA Trouble; Thai Troubles; Farmers versus the Facts

USMCA Trouble U.S. House Ways & Means trade subcommittee member Bill Pascrell (D-New Jersey) says he is leaning toward voting against USMCA because the Mexicans are not doing enough meaningful labor reform. Organized labor in the U.S. has taken a strong line, demanding actions by Mexico tha...

Middle East & Africa

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

feed-grains

Sorghum’s Row

Sorghum was once the darling crop to grow because it was cheaper to produce than corn and environmentally friendly since it required less water. U.S. farmers nearly tripled the amount of sorghum they grew between 2011 and 2015, but since then production of the crop has fallen by 40 percent. Lik...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

feed-grains

Sorghum’s Row

Sorghum was once the darling crop to grow because it was cheaper to produce than corn and environmentally friendly since it required less water. U.S. farmers nearly tripled the amount of sorghum they grew between 2011 and 2015, but since then production of the crop has fallen by 40 percent. Lik...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS: As had been rumored in recent weeks, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan have now signed an official “memorandum of understanding” for the import of Russian and Kazakh wheat. However, according to the deputy Ag Minister the agreement will...

North America

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Spread activity was the main CBOT driver today, with traders initially buying soybeans and selling wheat and corn. Long soymeal/short soyoil trading was notable as well. Disappointing export sales for corn and wheat triggered liquidation in those two commodities. Soybeans had gotten cheap enoug...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Spread activity was the main CBOT driver today, with traders initially buying soybeans and selling wheat and corn. Long soymeal/short soyoil trading was notable as well. Disappointing export sales for corn and wheat triggered liquidation in those two commodities. Soybeans had gotten cheap enoug...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

South America

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Spread activity was the main CBOT driver today, with traders initially buying soybeans and selling wheat and corn. Long soymeal/short soyoil trading was notable as well. Disappointing export sales for corn and wheat triggered liquidation in those two commodities. Soybeans had gotten cheap enoug...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Spread activity was the main CBOT driver today, with traders initially buying soybeans and selling wheat and corn. Long soymeal/short soyoil trading was notable as well. Disappointing export sales for corn and wheat triggered liquidation in those two commodities. Soybeans had gotten cheap enoug...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 15 November)

Update for 15 November 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 14 November 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 15 November)

Data Updated Through: 15 November 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 14 November 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Not to sound like a broken record, but it w...

Russia

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

livestock

Where to Find Meat

The ASF outbreak has brought much attention to the world’s tenuous supply of animal protein. China is the largest producer of pork in the world but produces less chicken meat than Ukraine and is far behind other major producers on a per capita basis. It produces half as much beef as the U...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) were still growing despite the global downward trend. Growth of prices in Siberia was more significant due to demand for Siberian grain from Kazakhstan. Milling wheat export prices remained...

SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy

SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...

livestock

Where to Find Meat

The ASF outbreak has brought much attention to the world’s tenuous supply of animal protein. China is the largest producer of pork in the world but produces less chicken meat than Ukraine and is far behind other major producers on a per capita basis. It produces half as much beef as the U...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) were still growing despite the global downward trend. Growth of prices in Siberia was more significant due to demand for Siberian grain from Kazakhstan. Milling wheat export prices remained...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Regional News The weather across Europe and the Black Sea remains widely variable with dramatically different implications for summer crop harvest and winter crop planting for each country. Broadly, conditions in France and northern Germany are too wet, which is delaying corn harvest and winter...

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