World Perspectives

Recent Asia Analysis

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading

Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi’s policies. One area of criticism is “Make in India” campaign but that is not such a unique policy. Many countries are no...

Sustainability Goals; Splintering Transatlantic; Korea Reveals WTO Flaws

Sustainability Goals Returning USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack says that agriculture is ready to embrace the goals of slowing climate change. President Biden has issued several executive orders limiting fossil fuel development and more are forthcoming. However, his centrally planned Build America Be...

livestock

Disproportionate ASF Impacts

While China gets most of the attention on African Swine Fever just because of the volume of production adversely impacted, the Philippines has suffered a larger percentage drop in output. From peak to trough, Chinese pork production fell 30 percent, but Filipino production is off 32.8 percent...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Profit Taking, Weak Palm Oil; South American Dryness Returns this Week

The CBOT settled lower under a mix of profit taking and position liquidation after a weekend of mostly favorable weather across South America. Funds were heavy sellers in corn and soybeans, selling some 15,000 and 20,000 contracts, respectively, in each market. The CBOT tends to weaken in the s...

livestock

Next Pork Markets

Global pork exports have grown by 66 percent over the past decade, with China a major reason for the expansion. A major driver for China’s expanded imports over the past year-plus has been African Swine Fever. Now that ASF is under control and China’s domestic hog herd is expanding...

soy-oilseeds

Veg Oil Leads Spike

The UN FAO reports that global agricultural commodity prices rose 3.1 percent in 2020. Though overall commodity prices are still below 2012 levels, vegetable oil prices are now at their highest level since that pivotal year. Global vegetable oil prices rose 4.7 percent in December alone, and we...

Besmirch Strategy Fails; More Quid Pro Quo; Prospects for Biden and 2021

Besmirch Strategy Fails Activists called it an acute health threat, orchestrated petitions and demanded that institutions only serve domestic pork. Despite a well-organized campaign of opposition to importing U.S. pork raised with the beta-agonist growth promoter ractopamine, Taiwan's parliamen...

Coming Currency War; Trees Over People; Punching Above Weight Class

Coming Currency War The dollar is now nearly 13 percent weaker than it was earlier this year and possibly headed lower based on massive deficit spending. The inverse is that other currencies are getting stronger. And for those nations that are export dependent, a stronger currency threatens the...

Stick Picked; Digital Leakage; Baht Caught

Stick Picked In U.S. agriculture, the head of USDA is sugar daddy, handing out checks, buying up surpluses and generally using carrots to obtain environmental improvements. By contrast, EPA is the stick side of the equation, laying down regulatory compliance requirements that impose costs on fa...

Offline is More Fun; Chicken or Egg; Leaving a Goose Egg

Offline is More Fun Today was the first day of this year’s online EU Agricultural Outlook Conference, but more fun was had in the sidebar chats of participants watching the speakers via their computer screens. The first day was dominated by officials explaining the Farm to Fork and Green...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax. Th...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 3 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 25 February 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting To quote John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. Last week was a record week for the FFA paper markets with 88,198 lots traded, 54% of which were Panamax...

Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading

Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi’s policies. One area of criticism is “Make in India” campaign but that is not such a unique policy. Many countries are no...

Sustainability Goals; Splintering Transatlantic; Korea Reveals WTO Flaws

Sustainability Goals Returning USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack says that agriculture is ready to embrace the goals of slowing climate change. President Biden has issued several executive orders limiting fossil fuel development and more are forthcoming. However, his centrally planned Build America Be...

livestock

Disproportionate ASF Impacts

While China gets most of the attention on African Swine Fever just because of the volume of production adversely impacted, the Philippines has suffered a larger percentage drop in output. From peak to trough, Chinese pork production fell 30 percent, but Filipino production is off 32.8 percent...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Profit Taking, Weak Palm Oil; South American Dryness Returns this Week

The CBOT settled lower under a mix of profit taking and position liquidation after a weekend of mostly favorable weather across South America. Funds were heavy sellers in corn and soybeans, selling some 15,000 and 20,000 contracts, respectively, in each market. The CBOT tends to weaken in the s...

livestock

Next Pork Markets

Global pork exports have grown by 66 percent over the past decade, with China a major reason for the expansion. A major driver for China’s expanded imports over the past year-plus has been African Swine Fever. Now that ASF is under control and China’s domestic hog herd is expanding...

soy-oilseeds

Veg Oil Leads Spike

The UN FAO reports that global agricultural commodity prices rose 3.1 percent in 2020. Though overall commodity prices are still below 2012 levels, vegetable oil prices are now at their highest level since that pivotal year. Global vegetable oil prices rose 4.7 percent in December alone, and we...

Besmirch Strategy Fails; More Quid Pro Quo; Prospects for Biden and 2021

Besmirch Strategy Fails Activists called it an acute health threat, orchestrated petitions and demanded that institutions only serve domestic pork. Despite a well-organized campaign of opposition to importing U.S. pork raised with the beta-agonist growth promoter ractopamine, Taiwan's parliamen...

Coming Currency War; Trees Over People; Punching Above Weight Class

Coming Currency War The dollar is now nearly 13 percent weaker than it was earlier this year and possibly headed lower based on massive deficit spending. The inverse is that other currencies are getting stronger. And for those nations that are export dependent, a stronger currency threatens the...

Stick Picked; Digital Leakage; Baht Caught

Stick Picked In U.S. agriculture, the head of USDA is sugar daddy, handing out checks, buying up surpluses and generally using carrots to obtain environmental improvements. By contrast, EPA is the stick side of the equation, laying down regulatory compliance requirements that impose costs on fa...

Offline is More Fun; Chicken or Egg; Leaving a Goose Egg

Offline is More Fun Today was the first day of this year’s online EU Agricultural Outlook Conference, but more fun was had in the sidebar chats of participants watching the speakers via their computer screens. The first day was dominated by officials explaining the Farm to Fork and Green...

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