World Perspectives

Recent India Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Scores New Highs; Soybeans Rally on China Buying Rumors; Cattle Fall on Weak Cash Trade

The CBOT traded a generally bullish day with wheat futures forging a classic bullish day on the charts. Wheat futures opened higher, traded sharply lower to test support in yesterday’s chart gap, then settled higher after forging new contract highs. World wheat risks abound, and the only...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Limit-Up on India’s Export Ban; Corn Rallies on Brazilian Drought/Frost Risk

Over the weekend, India announced a ban on wheat exports following the massive heat waves that have severely hurt the country’s yields. Before the ban, India was expected to be a marginal but significant – especially this year – exporter of about 10 MMT. USDA’s May WASDE...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Risk-On Pre-WASDE Trade; Wheat Rallies on Too Dry/Too Wet Forecast; Inflation Drives Fund Buying

The CBOT was higher the day before the May WASDE with traders turning more bullish amid persistently challenging weather forecasts for the world’s major crop producers. Moreover, U.S. economic data sent funds looking for assets in which to hedge inflation risks, which meant an inflow of s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: India Suggests, Then Denies, Wheat Export Limits; Exports Rally Soyoil; OK Wheat Yields Not OK

CBOT futures ended the day mostly higher with wheat leading the way amid rumors of an export ban from India and poor Oklahoma HRW yields. The wheat strength helped pull corn higher, along with rumors of Chinese buying interest this morning. The recent pullback in corn and soybean futures has, r...

wheat

Wheat Predator to Protectionist

Back in January, U.S. wheat growers were demanding that USTR file a WTO case against India for exceeding its de minimis limit of subsidies capped at 10 percent of the value of wheat production. The demand was presaged by a U.S. government counternotification to the WTO that New Delhi had substa...

U.S. – China Rift; India’s Manipulations; Then and Now

U.S. – China Rift There is a split within Washington policy circles over the continuation of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Backing the Senate position, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for reducing the tariffs and White House Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an increase of 1 Mha from last year. Agriculture Minister Dmitriy Patrushev expects the crop to reach 123 MMT, with wheat accounting for 80 MM...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased exports and lower ending stocks. Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, export sales have been stronger than expected through March. The soybean oil price is projected at 70.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased U.S. exports and seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to WASDE-623-3 2.12 billion, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia. Seed use is raised in line with recor...

War on Words; Defense Kills Permanence; War Changes Market – But How?

War on Words Autocratic regimes can be dystopian and filled with censorship. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has ordered information sources to not call his assault on Ukraine an “attack,” an “invasion,” or a “war.” Instead, it is to be called a special operati...

NBT Beats GMO; CBAM Cost

NBT Beats GMO As in Europe, genetically modified crops have been controversial in India where only Bt cotton is approved for cultivation. However, scientists apparently convinced the Modi government that new breeding techniques SDN1 (small RNA degrading nuclease 1) and SDN2 (small RNA degrading...

softs

White Commodities

The U.S. rice industry motivated its politicians to attack USTR Katherine Tai last week as she made the rounds on Capitol Hill. The main point of their ire is India, which they claim uses subsidies far more than WTO rules allow. Indeed, India has subsidized agriculture to the point that its ric...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Scores New Highs; Soybeans Rally on China Buying Rumors; Cattle Fall on Weak Cash Trade

The CBOT traded a generally bullish day with wheat futures forging a classic bullish day on the charts. Wheat futures opened higher, traded sharply lower to test support in yesterday’s chart gap, then settled higher after forging new contract highs. World wheat risks abound, and the only...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Limit-Up on India’s Export Ban; Corn Rallies on Brazilian Drought/Frost Risk

Over the weekend, India announced a ban on wheat exports following the massive heat waves that have severely hurt the country’s yields. Before the ban, India was expected to be a marginal but significant – especially this year – exporter of about 10 MMT. USDA’s May WASDE...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Risk-On Pre-WASDE Trade; Wheat Rallies on Too Dry/Too Wet Forecast; Inflation Drives Fund Buying

The CBOT was higher the day before the May WASDE with traders turning more bullish amid persistently challenging weather forecasts for the world’s major crop producers. Moreover, U.S. economic data sent funds looking for assets in which to hedge inflation risks, which meant an inflow of s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: India Suggests, Then Denies, Wheat Export Limits; Exports Rally Soyoil; OK Wheat Yields Not OK

CBOT futures ended the day mostly higher with wheat leading the way amid rumors of an export ban from India and poor Oklahoma HRW yields. The wheat strength helped pull corn higher, along with rumors of Chinese buying interest this morning. The recent pullback in corn and soybean futures has, r...

wheat

Wheat Predator to Protectionist

Back in January, U.S. wheat growers were demanding that USTR file a WTO case against India for exceeding its de minimis limit of subsidies capped at 10 percent of the value of wheat production. The demand was presaged by a U.S. government counternotification to the WTO that New Delhi had substa...

U.S. – China Rift; India’s Manipulations; Then and Now

U.S. – China Rift There is a split within Washington policy circles over the continuation of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Backing the Senate position, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for reducing the tariffs and White House Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an increase of 1 Mha from last year. Agriculture Minister Dmitriy Patrushev expects the crop to reach 123 MMT, with wheat accounting for 80 MM...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased exports and lower ending stocks. Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, export sales have been stronger than expected through March. The soybean oil price is projected at 70.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased U.S. exports and seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to WASDE-623-3 2.12 billion, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia. Seed use is raised in line with recor...

War on Words; Defense Kills Permanence; War Changes Market – But How?

War on Words Autocratic regimes can be dystopian and filled with censorship. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has ordered information sources to not call his assault on Ukraine an “attack,” an “invasion,” or a “war.” Instead, it is to be called a special operati...

NBT Beats GMO; CBAM Cost

NBT Beats GMO As in Europe, genetically modified crops have been controversial in India where only Bt cotton is approved for cultivation. However, scientists apparently convinced the Modi government that new breeding techniques SDN1 (small RNA degrading nuclease 1) and SDN2 (small RNA degrading...

softs

White Commodities

The U.S. rice industry motivated its politicians to attack USTR Katherine Tai last week as she made the rounds on Capitol Hill. The main point of their ire is India, which they claim uses subsidies far more than WTO rules allow. Indeed, India has subsidized agriculture to the point that its ric...

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