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Ag Review: Agribusiness Margins in the Face of Uncertainty

WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness

A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance.

The Grain Industry

Low prices are leading farmers to pursue cost-cutting decisions. In turn, this will pressure margins at all levels of the farm economy, especially seed and other farm input suppliers.

Oilseed Processing

Positive domestic and global factors should all overcome the record U.S. soybean crop and bode well for U.S. soybean farmers, exporters, processors and animal producers.

The U.S. Biofuels Industry

By 30 November, the EPA will release the final Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) rule for biofuel use under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), and the question that remains is whether there will be a change in these volumes.

The U.S. Livestock Industry

Production and supply of all three major proteins are growing, aided by low feed costs that will extend into next year. U.S. domestic consumption is also rising with moderating prices, and exports are projected to increase for 2017, helping to find a home for new larger supplies.

Farm Inputs

Burdensome supplies are chasing insufficient demand, while a projected crude oil price recovery has been elusive and hardly supportive to fertilizer prices. However, falling natural gas prices are improving nitrogen production margins.

Policy Trends

Donald Trump’s surprise election alters the glide path for U.S. policy with positive, negative and uncertain impacts.

Trends and Agribusiness

Mergers and acquisitions in agribusiness are driven by a myriad of factors, and this year's merger activity is no exception. An evaluation of historic mergers, their rationales and impacts provides insight into the future of agribusiness around the world.

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Summary of Futures

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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