World Perspectives
wheat

All the Ingredients - But No Dough

U.S. wheat futures markets continue to trade in a relatively narrow range that is also near the bottom of a longer term-range (see the Chicago wheat chart below). Wheat markets should eventually break out of this bearish pattern for a number of fundamental reasons. USDA has been very slow to reduce 2018 world wheat production even though virtually every private analyst and several foreign government groups are using smaller numbers. It did make a few minor adjustments in yesterday’s reports, but those are still not enough (in our opinion). The table below compares USDA’s 2017/18 numbers for the major wheat-exporting countries with its forecast and that of WPI for 2018/19. WPI’s lower production and export numbers for...

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livestock

1 March Cattle on Feed Report

USDA today released the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 March. It showed the total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 1.8 million, the 27th straight month of year-over-year increases. Marketings were essentially flat, up only 8,000 head (or less than a half-perc...

Failed Tomato Farmers; Blasé Program Changes; New Transatlantic Conditionality

Failed Tomato Farmers The most efficient way to grow tomatoes is in greenhouses or hot houses. Most Mexican tomatoes are grown this way, but Florida growers have failed to adopt this form of protected agriculture, and the result is that their domestic market share has fallen to 41 percent. They...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...

livestock

1 March Cattle on Feed Report

USDA today released the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 March. It showed the total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 1.8 million, the 27th straight month of year-over-year increases. Marketings were essentially flat, up only 8,000 head (or less than a half-perc...

Failed Tomato Farmers; Blasé Program Changes; New Transatlantic Conditionality

Failed Tomato Farmers The most efficient way to grow tomatoes is in greenhouses or hot houses. Most Mexican tomatoes are grown this way, but Florida growers have failed to adopt this form of protected agriculture, and the result is that their domestic market share has fallen to 41 percent. They...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.66/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $0.3 fro...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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